The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.
Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.
UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:
• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).
• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.
On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.
The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.
You don’t even remember what you insisted on our last discussion.
I guess that explains your inablity to remain consistent from one discussion to the next!
Rather than try to notch up one more vote for your side, why don’t you discuss your views about the substantive issues Gary?
One of the things I have been trying to encourage here is the ability to discuss your OWN views, rather than just regurgitating the Party HQ talking points….
Maybe Alberechtson will focus on their ABC’s lifting of News Ltd content and memes!
Then again, I think that’s one form of ‘piracy’ Murdoch doesn’t mind, since the purpose of the Australian is not to make money, but to influence the incestious press gallery and through it other media outlets in their political coverage.
rossmcg:
Oh god, you’ve just reminded me of Jonathon Shier! EEK!
guytaur@1147
I don’t see that. The ABC may as well be run by Murdoch already. Most of their content comes either from there or from the IPA anyway.
Modlib #1129
There you go.
Instead of discussing, engaging about Morrison and his reprehensible conduct, you unicorn on about JG and CBowen.
Just like a loyal acolyte of Abbott. Soon they’ll hire you. God knows, you are so practised with the spin and lies and utter crap and denial, but 100% transparent.
[DisplayName
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 9:17 pm | PERMALINK
You don’t even remember what you insisted on our last discussion.]
No personal insults,
No questioning the motives for posting
Discussing the issues
Must have been one of those, it usually is!
Confessions
You forgot Shier? What are you taking? I could do with memory lapses like that!
ML thinks I’m a Green. Lol. I think you’ve just shown your own inconsistency when it comes to AS. People in glass houses ….
[psyclaw
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 9:23 pm | PERMALINK
Modlib #1129
There you go.
Instead of discussing, engaging about Morrison and his reprehensible conduct, you unicorn on about JG and CBowen.]
No.
I addressed Morrison head on with my very first words in my very first post tonight.
You, on the other hand, abused Morrison angrily, but remained silent on the ALP Ministers who oversaw the same policies. When I pointed that out, you didn’t like it*
*not surprised
briefly:
If you’re about, check out our animated earth for the tropical storm Arthur off the Florida coast.
And then check out what’s happening around Iceland!! OMG!
The idea that so many on-shore claims are found to be valid is because the Department just believes everyone’s story and waves the claims through does not bear much resemblance to reality.
The idea that drownings in the Indian Ocean are a huge problem but that concentration camps in PNG, ongoing torture in Sri Lanka or statelessness in Indonesia are just not a problem at all is moral blindness.
rossmcg:
Hehe. 😀
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
AUSSIE – I thought the lib policy was to cut our refugee intake to 14,000. Have they done that.
Abbott plans to increase and expand the 457 visas. More jobs for other nationalities ahead of jobs for Aussies. How many have been lost or gone overseas since he became PM, 60-80,000?
Abbott has created more jobs overseas than in Australia so expanding the 457 visa fits with his “no jobs for Aussies” plan.
He stated he would get tough on Kiwi immigration and he is keen on immigration, just not in boats.
I haven’t seen anything about numbers, but no doubt there will be an eleventy in there
That’s called guessing, Mod.
The Greens had it their way – asylum seekers are now in the safety of PNG and, now allegedly , somewhere in the Indian Ocean or Sri Lankan navy, rather that ‘dangerous’ Tamil-persecuting Malaysia.
Well Done Greens, well done refugee ‘advocates’. With friends like these, the asylum seekers need no enemies!
If you have to guess, that means you don’t recall what was actually said.
[Gary
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 9:25 pm | PERMALINK
ML thinks I’m a Green. Lol. I think you’ve just shown your own inconsistency when it comes to AS. People in glass houses ….]
Nope.
I just think that you are very happy with yourself because you think you have outsmarted me by asking for whom I will vote.
You were just proving my point that it is often just about how the party primary vote will come out here on PB, not what is right and what is wrong.
I agree that it’s not about whom one votes for. For example, E has said (s)he won’t vote for the Liberals, but still wants them in government to keep Labor out.
ML it’s a political blog.
In July of 2010, Tony Abbott announced that a Coalition Government would slash the migrant intake number from 300,000 to 170,000 during the first term of Government.
Tony Abbott is reported to have based his figures on the 2009 immigration level and claimed that he did not have access to official government forecasts.
The problem for Tony Abbott was that due to changes in the migrant intake system by the Labor Government, the numbers were already expected to fall to 145,000 in 2011-2012 anyway.
sustained decrease in net overseas migration over the next two years. Net overseas migration is expected to be down to 175,000 persons in 2010/11 and 145,000 persons in 2011/12. As a result, national population growth is expected to slow to about 1.5 per cent in 2010/11, and 1.3 per cent in 2011/12.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5368.0
Surprisingly poor trade May numbers published today by ABS, suggesting a notable drag on GDP for the June Quarter.
As June will likely be even worse than April and May, and exports were responsible for most growth in 2013/14, the accounts will likely show a rapid slowdown – possibly renewed contraction – in income growth.
This highlights the day to day reality for households – incomes are trending lower under the Liberal Government.
Or wants Labor to remain ineffective to keep the Liberals in. One or the other.
1162
confessions
will do!!
Under a Coalition government, section 457 visas won’t be just a component but a mainstay of our immigration program,” Mr Abbott says.
The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.
That is my view.
One could probably have guessed that from my previous name Mod Lib!
😉
briefly:
Methinks the storm chasers currently in Florida need to haul their arses to Iceland pronto!
Mod, that’s a little different for wishing for one side to be ineffective. Surely an independent person would want a robust debate where all sides put forth their best arguments. Without effective opposition how does one suppose that your arguments will be tested properly? Or do you simply assume you’re right from the get go and this politics business is basically a formality?
[The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.]
And yet under almost every indicator you express outrage against, that’s what we had with the former Labor govt.
huge high around Iceland, confessions…
Have a look at the Western Pacific – trade winds have flipped and now blowing from the west, a feature of El Nino conditions.
*from wishing
*how do you suppose
[The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.
]
Something that cannot happen!
A bit like hoping for the Swedish Social Democrats to be in power here or have France’s UMP here. They simply do not exist in our political context so wishing for them is purity over power.
May refugees continue to drown under Labor/Liberal and Mad Lib can say “not my fault, I hoped for another mythical government”.
*snort*
[1177
Everything
The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.]
Such a government is a figment of the imagination. As long as I can recall, there hasn’t been one.
The boat “problem”, for example, is suffering from the lack of any alternative views being put forth effectively.
Perhaps “prosecuted effectively”
[The Greens had it their way]
Obviously that is not true.
[asylum seekers are now in the safety of PNG]
Maybe the grown-up ALP can take responsibility for their decisions instead of always crying ‘they made me do it’
[and, now allegedly , somewhere in the Indian Ocean or Sri Lankan navy, rather that ‘dangerous’ Tamil-persecuting Malaysia.]
Not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good is a reasonable argument. It doesn’t justify accepting ‘just a bit better than the bad’.
Modlib
“I addressed Morrison head on with my very first words in my very first post tonight.”
[The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.]
Really. And where are they coming from and which ones are being being put up to elected.
Even Truffles is a Tea Party compliant Lib these days.
DN:
You are absolutely right, we should have a moderate Liberal government with an effective non-Union shackled progressively minded Opposition.
That is the ideal position for us.
Modlib
“I addressed Morrison head on with my very first words in my very first post tonight.”
No you didn’t.
You didn’t even name Morrison.
So when I said we had hit a new low with asylum seeker policy, were you thinking that I was making a comment about something Rudd or Gillard had done or said today?
I will accept that proposition as progress over the last one ;).
The best thing for Australia is a moderate liberal government.
That would be in the tradition of the Liberal National Governments of 1949 to 1972 and ( in spite if its controversial beginning) 1975 to 1983.
That choice is no longer on offer, at least at the Federal level, although the NSW and Victorian State governments are fairly moderate. But Federally, since John Howard became leader in 1994, it’s highly career-limiting to be a moderate Liberal.
briefly:
Yeah, been checking out things closer to home too. That French / Aust attol thing halfway between us and Sth Africa cops a beating as well.
I’m in love with this animation. It’s the best thing ever.
[No you didn’t.
You didn’t even name Morrison.]
Of course not. Mad Lib will only ever criticise the Liberals in vague and ephemeral terms, and would rarely even name a Liberal in her few vague critiques.
She attacks Labor from the left to get the hackles of the Labor-inclined posters here. Simple as that. That is all she has ever done here and it is all she ever will.
briefly:
And btw on wind, there is a live wind station at Emu Pt in Albany other than the airport. Updated every 10mins!!!
http://www.albany.wa.gov.au/about-albany/major-projects/emu-point-meteorological-station/
Back to my orginal quaetion.
How many refugees has Abbott taken from the camps and from the queue?
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/poll-forecasts-trouble-for-victorian-premier-denis-napthine/story-fnii5sms-1226975532088
[Poll forecasts trouble for Victorian Premier Denis Napthine
July 02, 2014 9:00PM
Stephen Drill
Herald Sun
ROGUE MP Geoff Shaw is in for an election annihilation, with just 4 per cent of voters in Frankston wanting to return him to State Parliament, new polling shows.
And Denis Napthine’s chances of holding power are under threat, with three key marginal seats expected to fall into Opposition hands.
The Labor Party will comfortably win marginal seats of Frankston, Mordialloc and Bellarine, a poll of 800 people conducted on June 25 and 26 in each electorate found.
Mr Shaw is still expected to run at the November election despite being suspended from Parliament for misusing his taxpayer-funded car.
The MP destabilised former premier Ted Baillieu and was accused of holding the Government to ransom with his balance of power vote. But his antics appear to be failing to win over his electorate.
The Essential poll, commissioned by the Victorian Trades Hall Council, was conducted after Labor candidate Helen Constas resigned amid a bullying scandal.]
I have said that Howard was a racist, and I have said that Morrison could be up against charges in the Hague (or at least asked whether or not he could, as I am not a lawyer, but he clearly appears to have breached international obligations by his actions).
The point you forget to mention, Darren and Gary and Confessions, and others, is that I was not one of violent attacks against Rudd or Gillard either. I just called them schmucks.
I am more than happy to say that Morrison and Abbott are schmucks too…..in fact I am pretty sure I have said that before already, but happy to repeat myself given the burning need to have me make it explicit!