Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,274 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. The ALP has to break ranks with this government of evil shits on this one.

    Go along with offshore processing if you must.
    Go along with off shore non-processing (which is what it really is) if you must
    Go along with Manu and Nauru, if you must.

    But you cant go along with this. This is refoulement – handing people back to the regime they fled without processing their applications for refuge. Its the only thing clearly barred by the Convention we signed.

    This is collaboration with abusive regimes.

    Bipartisanship has to stop here, or the devil takes your souls.

  2. [1197


    And btw on wind, there is a live wind station at Emu Pt in Albany other than the airport. Updated every 10mins!!!]

    made for you!

  3. [rather than just regurgitating the Party HQ talking points]

    Just like you regurgitate the Liberal HQ talking points on the NBN rather than seeking to better inform yourself hey Mod Lib?

    Until you can acknowledge that fraudband is both temporary and going to cost more, you’ve got zero credibility.

  4. [zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 10:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Morrison is returning people (against their wishes) to the place they fled from.

    No Labor Minister has ever done this.]

    No, because the High Court of Australia prevented the Gillard government from doing exactly that by halting the Malaysian rendition policy.

  5. If refoulement is in fact going one, the public servants and military officers involved, from the top down, would be well advised to seek their own private legal advice on their situation.

  6. …and the ALP Government’s solution to this was to remove all mention of human rights obligations in the legislation so that the High Court would have no means to prevent them in the future.

    NOYCE…… doubt most here were thrilled by this? I remember ruawake was gloating about it! So much for progressive ideology when you boast about removing protections for the vulnerable.

  7. Well, it is not their original country of fleeing, but the people you wanted to send to Malaysia had fled from Malaysia to Australia (+- via Indonesia) when they were captured by Australian forces.

  8. btw, before I left tonight (ALP meeting) I had a quick re read of some of Turnbull’s speeches as Opposition leader on the subject of asylum seekers.

    Filled with references to the success of Howard’s policies, and the need to return to them (he was particularly big on TPVs).

    ModLib, who do you think – in the present Liberal party – will be the moderate Liberal leader? Who will be their Ministers?

    There was only a handful of moderate Liberals in the last Parliament. Most of those have left now or are leaving.

    Who is left?

  9. ML

    right, so they weren’t being returned to the country they fled from.

    Thanks for admitting that.

    So I take it you also admit that what Morrison is doing is different.

  10. [No, because the High Court of Australia prevented the Gillard government from doing exactly that by halting the Malaysian rendition policy.]

    There you go again. Making stuff up again.

    No-one seeking refuge from Malaysia (and there were very few) was to be returned there. It was a third country.

    But there is no point. You have made your mind up on this. You hate Labor more than Liberal and just use asylum seekers as some sort of purity football/unicorn.


    Once again, Mad Lib derails a thread. She really wants it to all about her.

    Get a life.

  11. [Who is left?]


    There aren’t many these days, you are right….its very sad.

  12. Much talk tonight of appointments of mates etc. to government positions. Ben Chifley was said to have observed that you should only appoint friends to jobs if you are 100% certain they are competent, because if they turn out not to be, you can’t sack them without compromising your reputation for loyalty.

    The federal government is doing the ALP a favour by appointing people of doubtful ability because of their ideological loyalty. It will come back to bite the government sooner rather than later.

  13. ML

    I’ve already pointed out that Turnbull, as Opposition Leader, wanted a return to Howard’s asylum seeker policies, so I don’t see how he qualifies as a ‘moderate Liberal’.

    And I don’t see any signs that Hockey/Hunt/Pyne or Brandis are. Could you please explain to me what qualifies them as ‘moderate Liberals’?

  14. Turnbull is a Turd, Mod Lib.

    He also trashed the proper National Broadband Network and is currently rewriting history on telecommunications.

  15. [Darren Laver
    ….There you go again. Making stuff up again.]

    No, that is exactly what the High Court did. I have spoken to the lawyer who took that case to the High Court over dinner, and that is exactly what he said. The High Court prevented the ALP from doing the Malaysian deal as there were no proper protections for human rights.

    The ALP then removed all mention of those human rights obligations from the legislation so that the HC couldn’t stop them in the future.

    [No-one seeking refuge from Malaysia (and there were very few) was to be returned there. It was a third country.]

    They were seeking refuge in Malayisa from their home country, but couldn’t be resettled as Malaysia doesn’t, and so they then fled Malaysia to come here….and you would have sent them back to Malaysia where they couldn’t get a job or own a house or live a normal life. Thats OK though, as it might have helped the ALP primary vote, which is all that matters.

    [But there is no point. You have made your mind up on this. You hate Labor more than Liberal and just use asylum seekers as some sort of purity football/unicorn.]

    I don’t have Labor or Liberal.

    I just point out the inadequacies of BOTH of these parties on this issue.



    Fine with me. You are the one who keeps posting comments to me!

    [Once again, Mad Lib derails a thread. She really wants it to all about her.]

    I made a comment about the substance and have had multiple personal posts directed to me since, which I have tried to address, one by one.

    I note you are criticising me for defending myself, whereas, you do not attack those for attacking me.

    [Get a life.]

    I’m happy with my life.

    Are you?

  16. [zoomster
    ….And I don’t see any signs that Hockey/Hunt/Pyne or Brandis are. Could you please explain to me what qualifies them as ‘moderate Liberals’?]

    Its an opinion.

  17. ModLib

    opinions should be based on something, surely?

    Or do you just feel they’re ‘moderate Liberals’ in your waters, regardless of evidence to the contrary?


    Victorian Liberals: Going, Going …

    My take on state election prospects. In terms of what you might not find in other such assessments, this article examines the idea that being a first-term government protects the Napthine administration from losing, and finds it to be false.

    I also have a poll in the sidebar concerning the format of federal polling (and by extension state polling other than Tas) articles on my site. There’s discussion of the options at the bottom of the current Vic article.

  19. [No, because the High Court of Australia prevented the Gillard government from doing exactly that by halting the Malaysian rendition policy.]

    Really there were Malaysian refugees? I don’t think so.

  20. It would be good to see some sort of forum of eminent people working on options for a more humanitarian regional solution.

    I can’t see this happening if it is only supported by one or other of Labor or the Greens (or Palmer for that matter). Has to come from the broader public.

  21. Turnbull – social liberal
    Hockey – hard line market ideologue
    Hunt – who cares?
    Pyne – the Minister Against Education. Universities to sell ‘education products’ on the ‘international market’ for those who can afford them
    Brands – not any more. Defender of bigots
    Payne – yes, but having no impact
    Bilson – ditto

  22. Having just watched the Lance Armstrong documentary on ABC, I was wondering if there are any similarities between Lance & Tony Abbott.

  23. So ModLib indulges in ‘faith based’ politics – believing that something exists even when there is no evidence to support that belief.

    Sort of sweet, really.

  24. Mod Lib u included Brandis and Pyne but not Bishop. I believe the former two have sold their soul, but I detect the merest pulse of the modernLiberal in Bishop. Your view?

  25. sceptic @ 1229: Great line. A real opportunity here for Mr Shorten to reinforce his theme of government lying by naming Mr Abbott as the Lance Armstrong of Australian politics.

  26. Yes, I hope that Bishop is among their number.

    The trouble with assessing the Liberal members is that they are part of a Cabinet, which means they have to stick with the Cabinet decisions. The Cabinet is top heavy with Right wingers and so they are not going to be able to promote moderate views, they are going to have to promote the ruling Right wing view.

    The Right wing is going to do great damage to the Liberal brand over the next few years, its just a question of how much of a buffer Abbott has with his 90 seats.

    What we need is a Moderate government, with moderates elevated to Cabinet and then the consensus Cabinet decisions will be moderate. You cannot judge the party in Opposition, as Oppositions are inherently negative. It takes a government to lead in a positive way, and IMO only someone like Turnbull can get us out of this AS policy debacle.

  27. [Gary
    Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 10:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Those moderate Libs support the present AS policy. Very moderate.]

    The ALP is meant to be to the left of moderate Libs and the ALP supports the present AS policy.

    What say you about that?

  28. [Heydon is killing his legacy]

    I’ve been saying this star chamber farce would be the end of any credible legacy since the start, but he must have known he isn’t that dumb.

  29. Everything

    I have been totally consistent on refugees and and to equate sending refugees to Malaysia and sending them to Srilanka is just wrong wrong triple wrong.

    The better analogy is that sending Jewish refugees to Sweden or Spain with the possibility they would be returned to Germany as opposed to putting them on a boat and sending them to Germany.

    Make no mistake. sending tam,il refugees back to Sri lanka is THE SAME as sending Jews to Germany. There is every chance they will be butchered as so many Tamils were. Yes I mean death camps – just used guns not gas. (guns are cheaper)

    The piles yes PILES of NAKED Tamil women mane it clear waht there fate had been. Mass murder and I suspect torture. Possibly WORSE than Hitler’s death camps.

    Support the return and you are an active supporter of murder.

  30. Ok, the SA ALP have lost the plot putting forward anti-secret recording laws of animal cruelty.

    That’s straight out of Abbott’s playbook.

    WTF are they thinking?

  31. Guytaur 1226

    Possibly, but I was thinking more of an ongoing activity or commitment by a group of people to develop and explore workable scenarios.

    Events such as a Geoffrey Robertson hypothetical might be useful if linked to a broader movement to find a solution – or indeed series of solutions.

  32. Modlib

    “I addressed Morrison head on in my first post”

    Hyperbowl or a lie. Take your pick. You didn’t refer to him at all.

    The word “Morrison” doesn’t appear in your first post.

    ………. “addressesd ‘head on’ “. What a joke! Yikes!

  33. Yep, faith based politics.

    Can’t find a skerrick of evidence from any of their pasts that they’re moderates, but they just are.

    Admits there aren’t enough putative moderates to fill a very small phone box, yet somehow, someday, they’ll find the numbers to sweep into power…


  34. Norwester

    I was suggesting that in the hopes of it being a kickstarte as I agree with you on the bleak outlook for such things now

  35. E
    [You cannot judge the party in Opposition, as Oppositions are inherently negative.]
    Err we did and have been proven correct. Broken clocks not withstanding ;).

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