Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

After a polling dark age for Queensland Labor going back to 2010, Newspoll’s latest quarterly state voting intention result finds it taking a narrow lead, with the Liberal National Party bleeding support to Palmer United.

Newspoll’s latest quarterly reading of state voting intention in Queensland has turned in a big result, showing the Labor opposition with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred – only Labor’s second lead in this series since the 2009 election, barring one aberrant result in the immediate aftermath of the floods crisis in early 2011. The primary vote results show Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government suffering an alarming eight-point slump on the primary vote to 32%. Since Labor is also off two to 34% and the Greens are steady on 8%, it may be presumed that a surge for the Palmer United Party has cost the LNP heavily. The two-party preferred result compares with a 52-48 lead to the LNP in the previous poll of January-to-March. Leadership ratings and such presumably to follow shortly. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of The Australian. Campbell Newman’s already unspectacular personal ratings have copped a further hit, his approval down three points to 33% and disapproval up three to 57%. However, Annastacia Palaszczuk has suffered an even bigger reverse from a far better base, her approval down three to 35% and disapproval up seven to 37%. Newman’s lead as preferred premier is down slightly, from 41-35 to 39-35. Hopefully I’ll find time to put up a poll trend chart tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: Here’s a poll trend chart which I’ve put much labour into to cover the gaps being left by various pollsters, most conspicuously in relation to Newspoll – from which, perversely, we are still not getting a primary vote result for Palmer United, unlike the dead-in-the-water Katter’s Australian Party (represented in the chart by the dotted purple line). According to The Australian, the hike in Newspoll’s “others” rating from 15% to 24% owes more to independents than Palmer United. If I had hard numbers to include in my calculations which reflected that, the surge to them recorded in the chart would be somewhat more modest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

50 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland”

  3. That Newspoll quarterly isn’t consistent with the other polls out in the same time which have been showing 52-ish and sometimes 53-ish 2PPs for the LNP, so I’d treat this one with a degree of scepticism. Nonetheless it’s still a dampener on the signs of an LNP recovery.

  5. How does Newspoll allocate PUP preferences when determining 2PP? And how much does 2PP matter with optional preferential voting?

  6. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll QLD Newman LNP: Approve 33 (-3) Disapprove 57 (+3) #qldpol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll QLD Palaszczuk ALP: Approve 35 (-3) Disapprove 37 (+7) #qldpol #auspol

  7. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Newspoll QLD Preferred Premier: Newman LNP 39 (-2) Palaszczuk ALP 35 (0) #qldpol #auspol

  10. [How does Newspoll allocate PUP preferences when determining 2PP?]

    Good question, to which the answer is that I don’t know. If I were them, I would apply the exhausted vote rate for all minor party votes at the 2012 election to the PUP vote, and allocate the remainder as per the federal election result.

    [And how much does 2PP matter with optional preferential voting?]

    As much as ever, as far as I’m concerned. Votes fall into three categories under OPV – those which will end up with Labor, those which will end up with the LNP, and those which won’t matter because they will exhaust. Exclude the latter and determine the balance between the first two, and you’ve got as good an idea of who will win the most seats as you always had.

    The difference is that the 2PP will resemble the parties’ relative primary vote support a lot more closely under OPV than under full preferential. And sure enough, this poll has Labor 2% ahead on the primary vote, and 2% ahead on 2PP. Under full preferential, Labor’s 2PP lead would be a fair bit bigger.

  12. Newman’s netsat of -24 equals the worst netsat Bob Carr ever polled. The significance of that is that Carr was re-elected, which none of the 11 state premiers who ever polled a netsat worse than -24 were. (All were beaten or dumped or resigned.)

  14. The LNP graph must look a little like an upside down hockey stick. How can a party go from a electoral tsunami boasting the opposition meet as a party in a Tarago to wondering if the lease is still available.
    I’ll tell you why. Because their treating the electorate like shit.
    Probably negotiating a Winnebago.

  15. William I hope you don’t mind but I thought I’d try to save these orfs.

    Darn
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Thanks William
    755
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Dan Gulberry wins the internets tonight.
    Are they serious? South Park?
    I want to live there.
    756
    trawler
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, couldn’t spot the Qld thread.

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 49 (-3) ALP 51 (+3)

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 32 (-8) ALP 34 (-2) GRN 8 (0)
    757
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    wow LNP looses -8 in primary votes?
    758
    William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Trawler, alerting me to a poll result I seem to have missed (as is indeed the case here) on the main thread is entirely the appropriate thing to do. New post up:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/06/29/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-in-queensland-2/
    759
    Dan Gulberry
    Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Are they serious? South Park?
    I want to live there.

    Oh my god, they’ve killed Henry!

    You bastards!!!

    😆
    760
    Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 12:50 am | Permalink

    Henry,

    Are they serious? South Park?
    I want to live there.

    I don’t want to live in South Park but unless something changes I will.
    761
    Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    I would have preferred Springfield
    762
    TaxiLurker
    Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    In Brizzie we have a newish suburb of Springfield so perhaps Towely and Jesus could come over on the xmas hols and play with our Spider Pig.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=871EcnmAogU
    763
    TaxiLurker
    Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 1:21 am | Permalink

    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    A wise and witty piece from”Taki” on the History of Stupidity in the Middle East from 1918 onwards
    ______________
    He sees the Saudis and the Qataris as prinicpal funders and supporters of then mad islamist groups now operating on unlimited funds

    http://takimag.com/article/a_short_history_of_stupidity_in_the_middle_east_taki#axzz361PvwW8m

    I enjoyed your link very much and it appears that Mesopotamia will eventually revert back to its historic boundary. I particularly liked the paragraph:
    “We oppose all foreign intervention and interference,” writes the Saudi envoy, and as diplomats are supposed to go abroad and lie nonstop, there is nothing anyone can do about that false statement, except list it along with the other two biggest lies: money means nothing to me, and let me put it in just a little bit.”

  17. Money means nothing to me…
    Since growing Ive never ever needed.
    I don’t feel any emergency.
    People I don’t know fawn over me.

  18. Sorry William
    I just thought that you had moved to a new blog and as such I didn’t want any wasted entries.
    My apologies.

  21. It is hard to see the PUP vote declining soon. Palmer being seen to use his power to negotiate in Canberra will add to his credibility in the eyes of his supporters. They will see it as their vote not being wasted.

    Assuming PUPs vote is not uniform, are there are State seats he might actually win? His home base on the Sunshine Coast is the obvious place to look.

  22. It’s a shame Newspoll seems to be deliberately ignoring PUP by lumping them into “Others”, considering the declining KAP support is still in there.

  23. I think the chief justice disaster has probably swung quite a few votes from Newman, especially when combined with getting the public health doctors off side.

    It is a bad look when the president of the Bar association publicly resigned.

    Also the new CJ did not help himself when he publicly stated he was not the sharpest knife in the drawer (or wtte). How is he ever going to give orders to all the other judges who ARE the sharpest knives in the legal profession. No one likes taking orders from a person KNOWN to be more incompetent, especially when it is a self assessment.

  24. If preferential voting was compulsory wouldn’t the LNP 2PP get a bigger boost from the large PUP vote?

    The Greens are well behind PUP and I assume that PUP preferences would favour the LNP.

    My guess is that Palmer will tell people not to bother with preferences in the hope of a hung parliament.

  25. trawler @ 24: It’s possible, of course, that Mr Palmer might actually encourage his supporters to give preferences to the ALP. He obviously hates the LNP and its current leadership like poison. His calculation might come down to whether doing so could cost him primary votes. (“A vote for PUP is a vote for Labor”.) Also, doing such a deal would presumably get him ALP preferences in return, across the board. It would also put the federal LNP in an awful bind, since they still will need his votes in the Senate, and won’t really know whether to treat him as a friend or foe.

  26. Perhaps instead of calling it a carbon”tax” it is called a Carbon Co-Payment or levy.

    Neither of these are taxes apparently

  27. Or Palmer could just tell people to only vote 1 Palmer. Then disgruntled LNP voters will have their votes exhausted and not flow onto the LNP. ALP could then win some of these seats based on numbers.

  28. Damn. Means up here we’ll be subjected to EVEN more Qld govt ads. No form of advertising is quite as dull or annoying as state govt self-promotion…

  29. One wonders how wedded Clive is to Canberra. On polling like this, the product of both Liberal and Labor’s eroding staunch bases – and with (a) all the free media he can puppeteer and (b) the LNP lifting expenditure caps on the election – he could easily manoeuvre (ie spend, self promote) his party into a hung parliament, with himself as Qld leader and into a king-maker position.

    After all it was Qld politics and business deals which spurred him on in the first place.

  30. I notice a trend in a lot of election campaigns for the challenger (even more so if it is labour) to get a huge swing its way about 12 months from the next election

    The more imformative question seems to be whether they dropped below 50-50 in 2pp before say the last month

  31. The A-G’s seat of Kawana on the sunny coast may be vulnerable to a PUP challenge if Clive wants to put in a lot of resources. I reckon Clive regards Bjeijie as a young upstart and a threat to his plans to corporatise Queensland. Although the margin of 26% may seem formidable, it is soft when you factor in the 17% won by PUP plus the 3% won by Katter at the 2013 federal election in Fisher. It will be softer still if labor goes to sleep – as it usually does. Bleijie is sure to suffer some opprobrium from the recent judicial kerfuffle and perhaps for his bikie laws.

    Failing all that, we the people could conscript Tony Fitzgerald to run as an Indy.

  32. When are right wing extremists going to get it?

    The Australian people DO NOT want your ideological extreme policies.

    The only reason that the far right wingers get elected is because of media support from Murdoch – that is all!

    It’s not democracy – PROVEN by the results of this poll.

    People wake up! The Liberal Party is not the Liberal Party of the past, they’re American Tea Party style.

  35. It’s hard to imagine an electoral environment more conducive to PUP than next year’s Qld election (is currently looking to be).

  36. At the federal election, PUP preferences in Queensland only broke 55-45 to the LNP, whereas Greens preferences broke 80-20 to Labor. So I imagine the latter would count for more than the former. Furthermore, I expect the exhaust rate on PUP votes would be higher.

  37. Is is me or is there something odd in this poll

    Why haven’t Newspoll given the vote for PUP in Qland ???
    _____________________________________
    They list a small vote for Katter’s Party but what must be a large Palmer vote is simple placed with the almost 25% which is given to”others””
    Is it the endless OZ campaign by Murdoch against Palmer ,following over from the editorial and news pages of the Murdoch press
    If there is a great leap in Palmer’s vote it is surely a news(NEWS)story? but no !

    I do not want to seem paranoid,but it seems odd.as PUP must have a bigger vote then the Greens…so why no list it here ????

  38. Great question, Deblonay, and one that just leapt to the forefront of my mind on seeing the published figures in The Oz: “LNP 32, Labor 34, Greens 8, Katter 2, Others 24.” So they are willing to tell us not only the vote for the Greens, which is very obviously lower than PUP’s, but also that for Katter’s party, which is struggling to keep its head above statistically insignificant territory. It’s hard not to conclude that what we’re seeing here is The Oz’s pettiness at work once again. I’m no fan of Palmer myself, but this is just silly.

  39. [It’s hard not to conclude that what we’re seeing here is The Oz’s pettiness at work once again.]

    Is it The Oz or Newspoll? Did Newspoll ask the PUP question and it was not reported or were they asked not to ask the PUP question?

  41. BoP, thanks. I wasn’t aware that Judge had been preselected in Kawana, though it’s a pity he has no previous affiliation there. Game on!

  42. The OZ like all NEWS CORP Papers only tell you what they want you to hear,truth to NEWS CORP does not exist unless its Murdochs version

  46. Did see a comment in the Oz dead tree edition suggesting the “others” were more Ind than PUP in this poll, but not sure how robust that comment is – or result if true!

  47. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/deputy-premier-jeff-seeney-says-new-poll-results-showing-poor-performance-is-sobering-for-lnp-government/story-fnihsrk2-1226972845900?nk=3a32445d15e1af75e0a8f22d479f71d5

    “Describing the result of the latest poll as “sobering”, the Deputy Premier yesterday said the Government might have been over-eager to reform and must now convince Queenslanders about the merits of its decisions.”

    Must be hard to admit 😉

    I thought LNP don’t comment on polls?

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/new-poll-shows-lnp-at-risk-of-losing-election-20140409-36ci1.html

    ““We don’t comment on polls and I don’t live in a world of hindsight. It is about doing actions, working hard for the people of Queensland.””

  49. 48

    Polling for the Greens is strangely missing or left out? Admittedly the Greens probably wouldn’t do as well as PUP but surely better than Katter.

  50. I just read the absolutely-totally-completely unbiased Editorial in today’s “Courier-Mail”

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-latest-poll-figures-fail-to-tell-the-real-story-behind-newman-governments-achievements/story-fnihsr9v-1226972904793

    And there you have it – the current Queensland people in these polls are unfairly punishing Campbell Newman’s Governmnet, so what Queensland obviously needs is a new, different lot of people who WILL vote for him

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