The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.
Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.
UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:
• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).
• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.
On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.
The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.
[confessions
….Aside from pissing off Indonesia, announcing a rubber ducky floatation device policy, and sending his immigration minister out to make no announcement announcements, the current govt hasn’t done anything much to alter the existing settings on boat arrivals.]
Right…….so you have been complimenting Abbott and Morrison consistently and loudly……until today, then?
So Mod Lib I assume you will be voting 1 Green next election?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/02/on-water-asylum-screening-plan-shelved-amid-fears-it-could-be-unlawful
[The immigration department considered using Australian customs vessels as “motherships” to interview and process asylum seekers as early as 2012 but was advised the process could be unlawful, according to a former department officer.]
[Right…..so Morrison is sky high in your reckonings then, is he, given the boats have slowed to a near stop, if not an absolute stop, for 6 months.]
Well he might be higher if we knew the drownings had stopped, his ‘no information besides disinformation’ farcical war policy means you can’t seriously suggest based on information we have that either the boats have stopped or that the drownings have stopped. All he has clearly succeeded in is not letting boats land people.
But it is possible that like the Malaysian solution Morrison opposed but without the increased intake of refugees and without the honesty and transparency of the Malaysian solution the boats stopped.
I’m very aware the success of the Malaysian solution may have been short lived but we never got to run that experiment to its end.
I want to stop going on but it brings me to the expert panel and the no advantage / indefinite detention in crappy third world countries aspect that Labor and Liberals together hold responsibility for. I think it is clear that even if you supported the no advantage test (and I lean to it, it makes a lot of sense), you’d conclude that the nature of the indefinite detention Australia has actually provided is far far below the standard your average Australian would accept. And way way way below the standard the Malaysians would have provided. So it is a joint failing with both Labor and Liberal (although the Liberals have dropped the no disadvantage test for you’ll never get here which seems to be as bad as the greens every one can come policy).
[So Mod Lib I assume you will be voting 1 Green next election?]
Hahhahaha
Gary, you have a wicked sense of humour!
Good to see you back on here.
Regards
Darren
Ah, Mod Lib is here to judge us collectively on “themes”.
How blessed are we?
Thanks Darren.
[Darren Laver
….their utterances are only worth of a ‘passing snort’ and not any attempted intelligent engagement.]
Well, you appear to be right as there has been precious little “intelligent engagement”!
So what can we agree on when it comes to the treatment of asylum seekers?
How about:
We don’t want people drowning trying to get here (even though they choose to take that risk).
A regional solution, including assessment in Indonesia, before resettlement in other countries, is a good idea and worked under Fraser.
We should increase our intake, and that includes increasing the intake from people in Indonesia who have been assesses as being refugees.
No TPVs. They’re inhumane.
We don’t want politicians exploiting the issue for their own political agenda.
[Right…….so you have been complimenting Abbott and Morrison consistently and loudly……until today, then?]
Actually like you, I’ve kept relatively silent on boats since it became apparent that the policy settings were working as a deterrent. As I anticipated they would.
My behaviour is entirely consistent with my view that Australia’s refugee intake settings weren’t benefiting those most in need.
Your behaviour however, is indeed a thing of mystery since the govt changed.
Nice to see Janet Albrechtsen on the ABC Board. Should even up things up a tad.
BC
Good post
[We don’t want people drowning trying to get here (even though they choose to take that risk).
A regional solution, including assessment in Indonesia, before resettlement in other countries, is a good idea and worked under Fraser.
We should increase our intake, and that includes increasing the intake from people in Indonesia who have been assesses as being refugees.
No TPVs. They’re inhumane.]
yes i agree largely but what ever policy one adopts (noone gets here, everyone gets to stay if they live to get here or anywhere in between) it has to work even if a regional solution never arrives. Politicians exploit everything for their own political agenda it is their job. It is our job to elect politicians who will exploit things in the ways we want them to go.
[Nice to see Janet Albrechtsen on the ABC Board. Should even up things up a tad.]
If the ABC is so far to the right that Janet evens it up it is much much worse than I feared. Isn’t she just um how do I say this, of too limited ability, to be on the ABC board regardless of her politics?
Modlib #1091
No, it was #1030, where you said neither of those things.
Taken as a narrative, your posts explicitly or implicitly laud the Abbotteers ie your party.
Very occasionally you swipe them with a feather dusterised wet lettuce leaf half hearted “criticism” in the interest of pretending your objectivity.
Your reflection about Morrison epitomises your pee weak criticisms of the conservos …… “if etc …… he has breached his obligations”
Get real! Morrisson is not merely a failer of obligations .
……. he is grossly inhuman, totally un-Christian, and is running the show in a reprehensible and inexcusable manner characterised by injustice, unfairness, illegality, cruelty, and (especially) with a disregard for the needs of the children for whom he is responsible”.
Your minimisation of his actions is apalling.
appalling
I’m not sure I want to know the answer to this, but what is the Nats policy on asylum seekers? Is it identical to the liberals?
[Nice to see Janet Albrechtsen on the ABC Board. Should even up things up a tad.]
She effected SFA the first time around. Hard to see things changing now she’s known as even more of a rusted on Liberal shill with an anti public broadcaster stance.
As I said before, her appointment represents nothing more than a cynical f*ck you from the govt to taxpayers given the former government’s attempts to de-politicise board appointments at both the ABC and SBS.
Given this, why her second time around partisan appointment to the ABC is something to be celebrated, if not trumpeted is completely beyond me.
[confessions
….Actually like you, I’ve kept relatively silent on boats since it became apparent that the policy settings were working as a deterrent. As I anticipated they would.]
Which is why I asked whether you were congratulating Abbott, since you think he has done the right thing (exactly what ALP did with nothing new).
[My behaviour is entirely consistent with my view that Australia’s refugee intake settings weren’t benefiting those most in need.]
No, your position, as I understood it, was that all that mattered was that the boats stopped. They have, yet you are critical of Abbott. So I ask why the changed goal posts.
[Your behaviour however, is indeed a thing of mystery since the govt changed.]
How?
E @ 1097
This is basically a rejection of everything you insisted on, from me, during our prior argument. I will take that to mean you are happy as shameless hypocrite, that you basically make up whatever argument on the spot to suit the moment and that staying consistent across multiple discussions is irrelevant to you.
Albrechtson has a conflict of interest.
She works for Murdoch
Yes, if Albrechtsen is supposed to represent balance, what is she balancing out? All those partisan ALP appointments … which didn’t happen.
These are only assertions at this stage and ‘leaked’ information from unnamed and unconfirmed sources. I would encourage people not to indulge in speculation. We do not even know if there was a boat or boats this weekend, let alone who might have received it.
DL
We know the boats were there. Alannah Mcternan was one person relaying information from Christmas Island
Albrechtson is not on the ABC board. She has been appointed to an advisory board that will recommend appointments to the ABC and SBS board.
Let me ask again. Mod Lib I assume you will be voting 1 Green next election?
Mod Lib:
As I said before, I’ve been relatively silent about boats lately, esp as I’ve openly acknowledged that the current govt is simply allowing the previous settings to apply and doing nothing of their own except make a lot of numpty noise about the issue. I’ve also clearly said that the current govt can’t claim credit for boats stopping other than in a purely perceptions context.
How this is therefore deduced by you as me congratulating Abbott is something I’m only too happy to leave to your fertile imagination.
rossmcg:
Noted, thanks for that correction. In many ways that’s even worse, as it directly goes against the former govt’s attempts to depoliticise board appointments. Something I’m sure even self-described libertarians and champions of small govt would applaud.
Again I have to ask those gleefully jumping up and down about today’s announcement: why is a political appointment to the process of public broadcaster board appointments something to be celebrated?
[psyclaw
…..……. he is grossly inhuman, totally un-Christian, and is running the show in a reprehensible and inexcusable manner characterised by injustice, unfairness, illegality, cruelty, and (especially) with a disregard for the needs of the children for whom he is responsible”.]
…and how would you describe Gillard’s lurch to the right?
What colourful adjectives do you have for Minister Bowen and the other ALP ministers?
As you may have noticed, I am not one for the sorts of abusive comments you seem to want me to have made.
[Your minimisation of his actions is apalling.]
And what is your minimisation of ALP actions?
Some good news
@mashable: Michelle Howard Is U.S. Navy’s First Female Four-Star Admiral http://t.co/zeV8bLdC61
[Gary
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 8:50 pm | PERMALINK
Let me ask again. Mod Lib I assume you will be voting 1 Green next election?]
If I think that is the right decision, I will do it again, as I have done before.
The trouble with the Greens is that, like Socialism, its great in theory but would be a disaster in practice (particularly if they ever got control of the treasury benches).
I note with interest, that your comments relate to voting intentions rather than the substance of the issue.
The rest of us don’t see the world through the eyes of the impact on primary voting intention……..I highly recommend this approach for you as well
:devil:
Guytar.
Did Captain Binghamton get over looked again?
I am rooting for Wally.
[DisplayName
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 8:41 pm | PERMALINK
E @ 1097
This is basically a rejection of everything you insisted on, from me, during our prior argument. ]
Nope
[I will take that to mean you are happy as shameless hypocrite,]
Nope
[ that you basically make up whatever argument on the spot to suit the moment and that staying consistent across multiple discussions is irrelevant to you.]
Nope
jeffemu
😆
I prefer Leunig’s three word slogan: “Let them come”
I understand Mod. Holding both of us to the standards you insisted on from me last argument would mean giving up on passing all those little comments you so like to have fun with.
I won’t begrudge you your fun.
Confessions
Sorry to be a pedant
As I am sure you know Albrechtson wad one of several Tory bomb throwers Howard appointed to the ABC board proper along with the MD Shier with a brief to change the culture.
They failed miserably.
Howard was much smarter that the current lot and couldn’t change much and I live in hope that the ABC can ride out the storm. After all it is only two years to the next election.
I know some individual ABC people cop a lot of stick on here, but the rest do a lot of good work. That needs to be remembered.
It’s you ML who is suggesting others are hypocritical in their thinking on AS. If you were consistent in your thinking on AS you would be saying right now that you will vote Green at the next election. After all you believe they are the only party with any cred IRGT AS.
The stopping of the boats was accompanied by Abbott and the right wing crying crocodile tears about how terrible it was that these boat arrivals were taking the place of people waiting in camps and standing in the queue.
How many have been taken from the camps? Which camps has Abbott provided with an Australian consulate so they can apply?
Gary
PUP has a similar policy on AS
BC @1109 – totally agree as far as general principles. One problem is that in Fraser’s time there were about 500 arrivals per annum. People-smuggling had not developed into an industrial scale operation. So working with Indonesia to tackle people smuggling as a criminal operation would need to be part of the solution as well.
[It’s you ML who is suggesting others are hypocritical in their thinking on AS. If you were consistent in your thinking on AS you would be saying right now that you will vote Green at the next election. After all you believe they are the only party with any cred IRGT AS.]
Mad Lib does not have a monopoly on heart.
*With apologies to VGE
I don’t understand, other than there rejection of the Malaysian solution putting votes for them above deaths as sea the Greens have been consistently hopeless and nowhere on AS policy. Surely no sensible person would vote for the greens for their AS policy it is fundamentally hopeless.
Is it now obvious that, despite Tone’s ratings being in the toilet, Shallow Mal’s chances of becoming PM are somewhere between buckleys and none. The right-wing nutbags in this govt are like the SS because they will never abandon the fuhrer.
AUSSIE – I thought the lib policy was to cut our refugee intake to 14,000. Have they done that.
guytaur@1121
I think you’ll find that this is an alignment of interests, not a conflict.
Player One
The conflict is her being appointed to an ABC position
Guytaur, well maybe ML will put Green first and PUP second or vice versa.
[DisplayName
Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 9:01 pm | PERMALINK
I understand Mod. Holding both of us to the standards you insisted on from me last argument would mean giving up on passing all those little comments you so like to have fun with.]
Its not holding to different standards, its about your reluctance to follow quite simple points.
I do not support insults and attacks.
I have ABSOLUTELY no problem with one interlocutor pointing out the inconsistencies and hypocrisies of another and asking for an explanation.
It really aint that hard….
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Howie the Dry wiped out the Wets . We are seeing the reaping of what he sowed.