A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.
The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.
Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.
I’m pretty sick and tired of watching movies, hearing songs, and the stories about how so few outsmarted so many, and won.
And how many tanks, and artilleries, and a few paramilitaries outdid a battalion or two.
Or how the heroics of a couple blew up a bridge and saved the universe.
Or watching the various themes of intergalactic warfare.
Or about who cares about the dead in all these asinine battles.
Or today’s favourite war games? From some stupid criminal computer game to inventing your own bloodshed.
Is that what we’ve descended into?
Instead of caring about our health and welfare, we’re all about killing off our enemies, inventing them no less.
All too tiresome, quite frankly.
Let’s prepare for the next war.
I’ve got the knitting needles out already. And gee, they’re good for a few other situations.
victoria
Paul Murray is ahead of Dean in the Appalling Stakes by at least a lap and a half. Paul would give The Parrot a run for his money.
[Who is worse? Paul Murray or Rowan Dean?]
Dean. By a long way.
Not forgetting one of the best bebop classics – Blue Train by John ColTRANE…
poroti
[Paul Murray is ahead of Dean in the Appalling Stakes by at least a lap and a half. Paul would give The Parrot a run for his money.]
Goodness me. That bad. Admittedly i have not seen enough of either of them as yet
This totally has my full support.
[West Australian Opposition Leader Mark McGowan is calling for the immediate introduction of a puppy breeder register to drive out dodgy dog dealers.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24184725/wa-oppn-calls-for-puppy-breeder-register/
confessions
You have not watched enough of the Paul Murray Show yet 🙂
Unless Paul Murray’s commentary has significantly declined since I ditched Foxtel, I’d have taken him over the airhead any day. At least he was funny.
kezza, I think that when we want to immerse ourselves in something constructive that will hopefully be of benefit to the health and wellbeing of our fellow persons, we don’t watch a movie or play a game, we go and do it.
confessions
He’s given up “funny”
poroti:
I didn’t used to watch Murray often, but I’ve read some of Dean’s columns in the Australian when he’s appeared there and seriously, that man’s take on things is off the wall batshit crazy.
poroti:
Oh dear.
kezza2@1042
Oh I get it… you don’t care how much of the budget goes into such items and how effective/ineffective they might be.
Wasteful expenditure on them has no impact on health/education/welfare etc. and is therefore not worthy of discussion.
BW
[My point is that about the worst thing that can happen to a civilian population is losing a war. Indigenous Australians know this first hand. So do a lot a lot migrants.
But Australian-born Australians generally do not have a clue about this.]
BS BW.
We grew up on a diet of fear. How we were just about to be invaded. How we had to subordinate ourselves to the yanks or else we’d be overrun by the Japs.
Our men died in their thousands. Our men fought and died for our freedom. Our men were prisoners of war.
And our women took up the cudgels. We worked in factories and defended our country as best we could.
Sure, we weren’t overrun by the enemy. But we knew what could be in store for us. And we were highly resistant.
We didn’t need real subjugation; we could empathise.
And it’s no need blaming us for what happened when whitey first set foot on our shores and won the war against the inhabitants.
Just as there is no need to blame you for you having your two subservient nannies in Indonesia.
It still doesn’t absolve any of us from not learning from our experiences.
Voting intention numbers from the Morgan leadership poll:
[The telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% … the primary vote is L-NP 38.5%, ALP 36%, Greens 12.5%, Palmer United Party 3.5% and Independent/Others 9.5%.]
Speaking of which, Sohar says:
[I notice from the Morgan leadership poll that PUP voter are much more inclined toward Shorten, than his demented opponent.]
It would seem this is based on a sample of about 20 people.
k2
As I said, Australians born and raised in Australia, apart from Indigenous Australians, have no idea what it is like to be a civilian population in a losing war.
I realized quite early as a migrant kid in Australia that it was one of the experiences that set us apart from Aussie kids.
Re Guthrie…..Wasn’t it Woody Guthrie who came up with the classic aphorism…when asked about Fascism …in the 1930ies…he said…
” Fascism is capitalism plus murder”
Some years ago I was in Santa Barbara(Cal.)where there was great anti-war demonstation against Bush and his lies and warmongering in Irag
…I joined it and two elderly ladies I spoke to two were admiring a guitarist who was playing “This Land is my Land” which it seems is the anthem of many left-wing groups…they scorned “Gods Bless America” as being a typical song liked by the Christian” fundamentalists” whom they regarded as morons
so there are lots of good sensible Americans when you search for them
bemused
[Oh I get it… you don’t care how much of the budget goes into such items and how effective/ineffective they might be.
Wasteful expenditure on them has no impact on health/education/welfare etc. and is therefore not worthy of discussion.]
No, you don’t get it at all.
When you blokes on here discuss warfare, you’re not framing it in terms of wasteful expenditure on warmongering hardware versus education and health, you’re too busy discussing the value of defence materiel in terms of its efficacy.
But, when it’s brought to your attention, all of a sudden it’s all about “Hey, we’re really concerned about health and education and the budget for defence.”
Sure. I believe you.
Deblonay
I take it that Guthrie did not spend a whole lot of time in the Ukraine when Stalin and Kruschev were imposing the dictatorship of the proletariat from above.
@William/1115
So Labor down from 3%?
[Glenn Druery, the political operative known as “the preference whisperer”, will become the driving force behind Victorian senator-elect Ricky Muir as his senior adviser.
Fairfax Media has learnt Mr Druery, who got his nickname for his knack at getting unknown candidates with tiny primary votes, like Mr Muir, elected to Parliament, will officially take on the role in the coming days.
Mr Muir, a political novice from the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, is part of the crucial Palmer United Party bloc that will control the balance of power in the new Senate from July 1.
Mr Druery will work alongside Motoring Enthusiast party founder Keith Littler but is likely to take a lead role in negotiating with the Abbott government on behalf of Mr Muir.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-set-to-join-ricky-muirs-team-as-senior-adviser-20140606-39o5u.html#ixzz33qRntltc ]
Interesting.
Here we go. This ought to get Guthrie fired up on the theme of fascism, capitalism and murder:
7.5 million. And that was during peace time. Phew.
No wonder they are a bit toey about Putin.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
kezza2@1088
By coming in swinging with your rampant misandry?
I don’t think so.
BW
[As I said, Australians born and raised in Australia, apart from Indigenous Australians, have no idea what it is like to be a civilian population in a losing war.]
Sure, you may have said that and you obviously believe it.
But you will not take into consideration the fact that children of those of war-age in Australia, while they did not suffer as you did, were well aware of the evils of war.
Do you even understand the word “empathy” – or do we have to suffer what you did to understand it?
Give us, the baby boomer children, a bit of kudos for helping people like you feel welcome. To understand that you’d been through hell. And that our fear was translated into understanding.
But please don’t dictate to me that I couldn’t ever empathise with you, despite not experiencing what you did.
I have imagination.
[So Labor down from 3%?]
Probably if you’re comparing it to the most recent Morgan multi-mode poll result, which is what I gather you’re doing, but I don’t think you should be. This was a phone poll, which doesn’t have the Labor bias of Morgan’s multi-mode series.
” I notice from the Morgan leadership poll that PUP voter are much more inclined toward Shorten, than his demented opponent.
It would seem this is based on a sample of about 20 people.”
Ah, so they interviewed all the PUP voters.
bemused
Apparently in your world it’s misandry to accuse men of talking up war. And, no less, being a swingeing accuser.
I have never seen on this forum women talking up war.
Perhaps you are blinded by your man-love. And your love of all things combat.
Where the only way you can win against women is by using your physical strength. Cos you sure won’t win an intellectual battle.
@William/1125
Yes, that is why I was confused for a second there.
Still a good result for a phone poll.
k2
No Australians born in Australia have:
(1) gone hungry, up to and including malnutrition and starvation
(2) died from preventable diseases because of war disruption
(3) been the subject of rape
(4) had their work places destroyed
(5) had their homes destroyed
(6) had random members of their families killed or injured
(7) had members of their families simply disappear
(8) been turned into slave labourers.
(9) been too cold in winter or too hot in summer.
(10) been executed in reprisals
(11) been sent off to death camps
(12) lived in the sort of fear that only the powerless can experience.
As I said before, no idea.
Roger Bottomley
You may be interested in this excerpt of Jonestown re:Alan Jones, particularly page 2.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/the-demons-that-drive-alan-jones/2006/10/20/1160851142104.html?page=2
kezza2@1127
Keep going kezza2.
I don’t have to say anything, you make my point for me. 😀
From two or three sources today on 6PR radio in WA the accepted orthodoxy is that the current “leadership” issue is a non issue.
The sources for this have been Michael Pache (is that his name?), Fairfax, and Perth’s local Paul Murray with his 3.5% of the Perth listening audience from 3 – 5 pm.
However, while poo-pooing any kind of leadership move against Abbott(everybody in the Liberal party apparently hates Turnbull – and a closet Laborite to boot according to the Great Sage Murray – who conveniently overlooked Nelson was the same) should the Liberals still be behind a few months out from the polls……….well yes, Abbott will be replaced.
But be assured, not by Turnbull.
So the great White Father Paul Murray on 6PR has spoken.
I suppose he would know as he is the Liberal party mouthpiece on both 6PR and in the West on a regular basis.
Shame (not) his ratings in the Drive segment for 6PR are even lower than his morning ratings before he lost the morning gig.
Mind you 6PR struggles to get anything over 5% of any kind of listening audience at any time of the day.
The station does supply succour, comfort and support however for those over 65 – a small and contracting audience.
I don’t know why Fairfax just does not junk the station or totally change its format as it must be losing them heaps of money.
It’s ironic that anti war-discussions here are condemned by one of the really aggro posters.
BTW, I (who in K2’s assessment am 1) a man and 2) with dried up testicles) have scrolled right past the Dept of Defence discussions, being totally disinterested in the topic, yet I am irrationally lumped together as a member of “the boys” or “men”.
Apparently anyone and everyone of that gender are by definition war mongers who are incapable of insight or support for matters regarding wives, daughters, sisters and female friends, acquaintances or strangers.
How stereotyping!
confessions
Re our earlier Paul Murray conversation. Perhaps we were talking about different Paul Murray’s ?.
W.A. one
http://www.6pr.com.au/shows/drive
Fox one
http://www.skynews.com.au/programs/paul-murray.html
Boer war #1129
Bad choice of debating tactics.
Logic and facts have no place in this discussion.
psyclaw@1133
K2 missed her vocation.
I think she would have been great in the SAS with all that pent up aggression.
BW
No Australians born in Australia have:
(1) gone hungry, up to and including malnutrition and starvation
Yep. Tell that to all who arrived here.
(2) died from preventable diseases because of war disruption
Tell that to all who died from preventable diseases before during and after war.
(3) been the subject of rape
You’re kidding aren’t you.
(4) had their work places destroyed
Do you mean literally, or by rampant greed?
(5) had their homes destroyed
By what means? Their livelihood destroyed, or by destruction?
(6) had random members of their families killed or injured
Ned Kelly?
(7) had members of their families simply disappear
Ned Kelly again
(8) been turned into slave labourers.
What do you call slaves? People who labour so much for a few snacks? Ask my mother.
(9) been too cold in winter or too hot in summer.
That was our experience anyway.
(10) been executed in reprisals
Ned Kelly again
(11) been sent off to death camps
Got me on that one. Although I wasn’t Japanese.
(12) lived in the sort of fear that only the powerless can experience.
Been there, done that.
[As I said before, no idea.]
No, you have transported your experience of severe deprivation, after living in the lap of luxury, to a nation that had limited experience but empathised with you about your own experiences.
Not many of us had had nannies. So many had to work from a young age. And were used to hardship. So deprivation wasn’t the same as you experienced.
poroti:
No, was definitely referring to the second one. It sounds from what you’ve described as if he’s gone way more shockjock than he used to be a couple of years ago.
1129
While Australia has largely been lucky enough to escape these things, I would point out that there was a small amount of (4), (5) and (6) during the bombings of Darwin.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Darwin
Bemused
If her words have parallels in action, I’d be on my bike and off if I saw her coming, discretion being the best part of valour
Interesting difference in preference for leader of ALP analysed by federal voting intention.
Tanya Plibersek: Greens – 40% ; Labor – 16% ; Coal – 9% ; Ind/Other – 13%
I’m not familiar with Paul Murray.
But when it comes to outright partisan commentary delivered in a petulant tone of voice, Rowan Dean is in a class of his own.
confessions
Yeah, looks like he has doubled down on Mordor shillery . Lots of the curly haired one , Planet Janet and the like
psyclaw
[Apparently anyone and everyone of that gender are by definition war mongers who are incapable of insight or support for matters regarding wives, daughters, sisters and female friends, acquaintances or strangers]
Geez, you like to cherry-pick.
No, I only accuse the warmongers on here, who all happen to be men.
Oh, and I see, you are still clinging to the ball-shrivelling moniker I gave you some time ago. Despite my apology, you haven’t forgiven.
Must be true then.
mikehilliard
Rowan is the Chris Pyne of Paul Murray’s show compared to Paul’s Abbott.
K2
You need to read Boerwar’s #1116
He is writing about things that happen in war.
That is the context of his comments.
Of course these events happen in peacetime, but certainly not to the same extent as in war, when absolutely no protection by law and order prevails for anyone.
Have the Yanks forgiven the Froggies for laughing at their IRAQ WMD ‘evidence’ yet?
mikeh:
As I said before, some of Dean’s commentary is off the walls in a way that is way beyond out there.
poroti:
Seems then that Sky is mirroring the Australian. Lots of ratcheted up anger, silly vendettas and shrill outrage in that space as well.
[Defence Minister David Johnston today announced the tender process for the urgently needed replacements of replenishment vessels HMAS Success and HMAS Sirius.]
The urgent bit is a bit of hype from Johnson and AAP. HMAS Success and Sirius are basically oil tankers.
Success has just returned to service after being “double hulled” in 2011. It was the ship that refuelled the fleet looking for MH 370. It is due for replacement after 2020.
We bought both of these oil tankers from Korea, so unless we want to enter the oil tanker business where is the story?
Oh sorry I forgot, its the ALP’s fault that Johnson can’t find a couple of oil tankers to paint grey.