BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,488 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  4. FSOTSB kezza2

    I worry about my family 99% of the day and night. 0.9% is spent thinking about how others are faring, families and non families alike. In the split seconds between those thoughts I am capable and should be permitted to think and post about other things.

    Or was there a grin I missed?

  7. kezza

    Bill Shorten started it. As for music going from leader polls to trains and Alice’s Restaurant isn’t too bad.

    This on the day Abbott is in France for D Day anniversary live as I type on 24 looking at their HRH Charles and Camilla

  8. DN

    Ah. I read it as a delicate, allusive, reference to whether or not the Chinese have a heavenly mandate when it comes to the struggle for world domination between evil and good.

  9. Last Train to Georgia – Gladys Knight and the Pips.

    Kezza.

    Howard signed a contract for $8 billion 10 days before he called the election. Are we supposed to ignore it cos its war toys?

  11. I flicked over to the Contrarians on Sky and the odious Rowan Dean is hosting.

    Everyone will be pleased to know that Bill shorten and the Labor party are irrelevant and Abbott’s trip has been a roaring success so far!!

  15. kezza

    [How many planes, battleships, subs?]

    How much they spend on this stuff has a major effect on how much is left to spend on health, education and other social programs.

  17. Mr Sheridan has an article on the relationship between Australia and Indonesia in today’s The Australian.

    No thanks to the MSM, and to the hysterial leftist ignorant commentariat, but many thanks to Abbott, it is all good.

    Sheridan does not seem to realize that 85% of Australians have twigged to Abbott and that he is whistling to the remaining 15%.

    Result: Sheridan is looking dumb and dumber.

  22. CTar1

    [How much they spend on this stuff has a major effect on how much is left to spend on health, education and other social programs.]

    Of course, why didn’t I think that excuse? Why don’t you frame this war toys for boys stuff in such a way, then?

    Why do you boys always start talking war, and about our arms (as if the military industrial complex is nothing to do with our budget for health and education)? It’s the women who suffer. And your children. Or did you forget?

    BTW, hope you’re better.

  23. confessions

    Thats an insult to vacuous airheads. Vacuous airheads have compassion. Dean is worse. He is a follower of Ann Rand style dogma including the lack of compassion

  26. From Someone Over The Same Barrel?
    For Symptoms Of Terminal Selfish Bastards?
    Fill Some Of These Sick Bags?

  27. kezza
    [Of course, why didn’t I think that excuse? Why don’t you frame this war toys for boys stuff in such a way, then?]
    Because they’d be accused of being Greenies who intend to protect us with (recycled) paper mache boats. Wouldn’t want that.

  31. I notice from the Morgan leadership poll that PUP voter are much more inclined toward Shorten, than his demented opponent. Does this mean that PUP preferences will favour Labour?

  33. In any case, kezza, on an internet forum you can only add, not subtract (unless you’re Mr Bowe) so the best thing to do if the topic of conversation is uninteresting is to start your own and get everyone involved in it.

  35. My take on Morgan’s leadership poling:

    I think that Abbott is at very high risk of getting in to the same position as Julia Gillard. That is, being popular with loyal rusted on voters, but unable to bring voters who have changed their minds since the election back. I used to often hear an argument for keeping Gillard as leader was that she had greater support among ALP voters. That was all very well, but there simply weren’t enough of those voters to be competitive at an election. This is quickly now becoming true for the Coalition. Abbott of course will be given more time to turn the situation around, but my sense is that he has polarised people so much that he is in serious danger of already being unable to do so.

  36. BW
    [Around about the worst thing that happens to civilian populations is losing a war.]

    And? Your point is?

    It’s pretty sad watching you blokes gnash your teeth over historical points of battles, and what happened where and and when how, when you can’t even tell us about the sacrifices the women who were “keeping the home fires burning” for you.

    How they went without, while you lot were being courageous,suffering all sorts of harrowing diseases, throwing your lives away, and expecting your families to fend for themselves.

    It was ever thus.

  38. DN
    [In any case, kezza, on an internet forum you can only add, not subtract (unless you’re Mr Bowe) so the best thing to do if the topic of conversation is uninteresting is to start your own and get everyone involved in it.]

    Excuse me, isn’t that what I just did?

  39. mmatt31

    I agree. Any doubts will be removed by senate blocking him. Even the press gallery will have to talk about how bad a PM he is when most of his budget gets blocked.

    Its going to be a political crisis with no up side for the LNP

  40. [kezza2
    Posted Friday, June 6, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    BW

    Around about the worst thing that happens to civilian populations is losing a war.

    And? Your point is?

    It’s pretty sad watching you blokes gnash your teeth over historical points of battles, and what happened where and and when how, when you can’t even tell us about the sacrifices the women who were “keeping the home fires burning” for you.

    How they went without, while you lot were being courageous,suffering all sorts of harrowing diseases, throwing your lives away, and expecting your families to fend for themselves.

    It was ever thus.]

    My point is that about the worst thing that can happen to a civilian population is losing a war. Indigenous Australians know this first hand. So do a lot a lot migrants. But Australian-born Australians generally do not have a clue about this.

  43. matt31

    It is a question of attitudes setting like concrete. As I suspect happened to JG and Rudd. Once set nothing was going to change them. Not yet happened for Tones but must be well on the way.

  49. Re Ayn Rand
    __________
    Someone said of her that the conservatives love her because she gives a pseudo-intellectual rationale to sheer greed and selfishness

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