BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,488 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. 1448
    Windsor is reducing his integrity continuously by tweeting these comments. Perhaps he should stand again. His continuos comments could be used as an election campaign.

  2. Sorry I I left out the point I was trying to Make will write it in capitals

    I don’t know what brought it to my mind but back in the 70′s when I was living in Pott’s Point, and working in the city, I was waiting for a bus there where about 20 people in front of me, not sure if the next bus went Watsons Bay or Rose Bay.

    A older woman covered in furs came up and went straight to the front of the queue, (born to rule I suppose.)EVERYONE IN THE QUEUE HOWLED HER DOWN AND she walked off in a huff.

    Around the same time I saw Sonia McMahon shopping in Myers on the corner of George and Market Streets, She had her Chauffeur was carrying parcels piled so high he could hardly see over the top, Sonia just kept browsing, just common folk.

  3. from Confessions

    You know exactly what I was referring to
    No I don’t actually

    \but I’ll take Bemused advice anyway see 1447

  4. @silmaj/1455

    Then you be making the same mistake as alot of others have done.

    Plenty of other people on PB have made that claim before, and I will give the same answer over and over.

    Truth is, Tony Winsor has wiser words than most on PB.

  5. Re Ireland
    I understand thatIreland ,unlike the UK had no worthwhile health scheme until a rather slight one started some years ago…a that has been swept away by the GFC which has hit Ireland very hard

    In the inter-war years Ireland was a sad poor place…which somebody once called” A Christian Brothers Republic” …dominated by the narrow views of the Churc

    North and South …religion has been a terrible blight to Ireland…though I understand that that is changing and the powers of the churches are on the decline…as many of the young are opting out

  6. When I was about six I was sitting in the back seat of the old bomb we called a family car, I was reading the headlines of the Sunday papers out load, my Mum turned around and said son don’t always believe what you read in the paper.
    Perhaps the best advice I ever got.

  7. 1463
    I don’t think it helps for people who get out to then continuously carp from the outside. If you wish to get back in do it.

  8. Actually we should remember that The Soviet Union played the major role in terms of deaths and defeats inflicted on the Nazi armies in the East …years fore and after D=Day

    So Putin is there to represent thast fact of histiory

    There is a degree of historical revisionism going on here to
    forget the Russians contribution

    Gen Montgomery of the UK once said there were three rules of war that MUST always be remembered by everyone

    I>>Never march on Moscow
    2..Never get involved in a land war in Asia
    3..Never March on Moscow

    There is no doubt that Hitler’s great error was to”March on

  9. Anger over the budget will subside as soon as the debt and defecit go down.
    What, they’re not going down? I thought this budget was to fix the debt and deficit crisis.
    Why do we have this crap budget if it doesn’t fix the problem we need to have a tough budget for?

  10. [I don’t think it helps for people who get out to then continuously carp from the outside. If you wish to get back in do it.]

    Some people are entitled to an “I told you so.”. It’s not like he hid his views at the time.

  11. Windsor
    He never took his judgements to the next poll. Now he is continuing to promote them with no recompense. If abbot goes all the way to the next poll he is one up on Windsor.

  12. re Ireland
    800 babies dying of starvation in the care of catholic nuns is just the start. This will not be an isolated case.

  13. silmaj

    Is Windsor no longer entitled to an opinion about politics because he no longer wished to engage in it? Seems an odd position for a commenter on a politics blog…

  14. 1472
    How much has gillard commented. Not much. Windsors comments are designed to try and justify his view when he wouldn’t put it to the test. If abbot comes good I doubt Windsor will tweet much. The self serving process will no longer work.

  15. 1474
    The author loves sinking the boot in in local environmental issues. His educated involvement in international issues will be noted as CRAP.

  16. I think the Canooks are in as bad political doo doo as we find ourselves so I sent this blog to the 24 Percent Majority website:TaxiLurkerJune 4, 2014 at 11:13 AM

    Dave, Orstralia calling here. Just wanted to give you the hands up that our recently elected PM is winging his way towards your bonza country on what can only be fact finding mission on the wonders of conservative government in Canada. Now Tony Abbott is the leader of the Liberal party of Australia but don’t be confused because that’s our version of the conservative party in Oz ( might be because we live in the opposite hemisphere).
    Unfortunately for Tonnes his recent budget hasn’t gone down to well with the general public. Those lower class types are getting upperty about inequality between the rich and the other ninety percent of the population. Even the septic tanks south of your boarder have made fun of him :
    Now if Mr Harper could just show him some of the nuances on how to rule within a conservative framework, just some pointers well….it would be much appreciated. Having said that he does have a handy guide put together by the Institute of public affairs of Australia, a prestigious group of Bankers, Miners, Captains of industry all thought to be under the guiding hand of our very own Rupert Murdoch.
    Even though Rupe has gone on to bigger and better things ( now an American citizen by crickey ) I like to think he still reminisces of his early days at the Adelaide Advertiser. Just wondering if your fair country is lucky enough to have any News corp publications or is it just us with wall to wall Murdoch media. Anyhow I better get out of your way now. Oh! If you do run into Tonnes he’s the kind of laconic bloke who will feel right at home with a cheeky greeting of ‘ Cheers big ears ‘.


    DaveJune 4, 2014 at 1:13 PM

    Come back! This is way more entertaining than anything I’ve ever written…

    I’ll have to check out those links. I may give you some time in next weeks post


    Does anybody know why Hawke said

    while the Abbott government was ”not travelling well” and could be beaten if an election were held now, he did not think this would last and predicted the ”the polls will change somewhat”.

    I know Hawke is aging and he has been writing for the Australian.
    Whether either of these facts are relevant I don’t know.

    Does anybody know why Hawke said this?

  18. [Again
    Does anybody know why Hawke said this?]
    Because it is TRUE!

    What the polls say this far out from an election are a terrible guide to what the election outcome will be like.

    People who want Abbott to lose the next election need to remind themselves of this fact constantly.

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