The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)
With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).
The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.
Sachin Lara@699
Has he ever kept a promise?
Sloppy Whinging Joe has been spruiking about entitlement and “sharing the burden” for a couple of years, and especially now.
Yet he operates a family trust, to protect his family’s very large incomes, their farms and their 4 houses.
It is accepted widely that there are two prime purpose in establishing family trusts:
1) To avoid income tax, and
2) To quarantine family assets from any claimant eg by creditors (upon bankruptcy), or by other authorities after criminal conduct
Tax is only payable when trust income is actually distributed, and this gives a flexibility in managing the tax liabilities of the individuals who are trust beneficiaries.
For a discussion about why governments have not cleaned up this loophole, see the following:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4591844.html
Professor Boccabella from NSW uni says that the demographies of those who typically and frequently use family trusts means that governments are unlikely to be motivated to “clean them up”.
The groups in question are politicians, small businesses, and farmers.
But in Hockey’s case, it is shallow and hypocritical to claim day in day out that “everyone must carry the burden, when he himself does not.
Like anyone, he is free to use such lurks, but having done so, his current sermons really carry little weight.
Smokin Joe.
If a big deal is made of the ‘week’ then of course Abbott will. If we just wait and see we can bust him if he ends up not doing so by Sep 7 2014.
But ultimately I would be very surprised if the stuntmaster in chief doesn’t do a stunt week in a remote community. Excellent unicorn for when things look grim for the government.
Imacca
Channel 7 advertised it for tomorrow night.
Heard it and came in to see and caught a glimpse of dark grey background, writing with the voice over. Sounded ominous!
As it turns out we are trialling biofumigation using brassicas in our backyard vegie patch.
BW
Sloppy Whinging Smokin Joe
[Bushfire Bill what do you mean by that comment about my twitter followers? Just wondering?]
Well, we hear so much about them, just wondering if they’re over there with you?
[ Will Abbott keep his promise to stay a week per year with an indigenous community? ]
It will cost us a fortune in travel allowance if he does. 🙁
@Imacca/709
Nah no need for travel allowance, he can use he his $500k that he get’s from us the tax payer.
[izzie
Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 7:05 pm | PERMALINK
citizen
Suddenly we ‘love’ our state governments because they seem to be sticking up for us. Strange feeling ]
It’s quite sad that Australians may need to depend on one lot of shysters to protect us from being done over by another lot of shysters.
In the end we will probably all be done over by both lots of shysters.
Will Abbott keep his promise to stay a week per year with an indigenous community?
The fact that he said it means he won’t.
Re Rex Douglas @687: I think Labor should keep an open mind about blocking supply. After all, it’s a weapon that an LNP Opposition will use as soon as they can both muster a Senate majority and are comfortably ahead in the polls. The only reason supply wasnt rejected between 2008-13 was that those conditions never applied simultaneously.
Obviously only if Labor are way ahead in the polls later this year. The grounds for rejection: the LNP betrayed the voters’ trust. Their 2013 campaign was fraudulent. They were elected on the basis of lies. Let’s have a rerun now that we know their plans.
Have the kind of people who Photoshop images of Tony Abbott to satirical effect ever noticed how brilliant this photo of him is?
[Sachin Lara
Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 7:15 pm | PERMALINK
Will Abbott keep his promise to stay a week per year with an indigenous community?]
He will claim travel allowance to at least cover what he will lose by freezing pollies’ salaries for a year.
[Have the kind of people who Photoshop images of Tony Abbott to satirical effect ever noticed how brilliant this photo of him is?]
The kid in the yellow hat has his measure.
William Bowe@713
Too late – someone has already photoshopped Gollum into it!
William,
Perhaps the kid behind him, is better judgement than the Australian people?
I reckon the teacup was hers and he stole it off her for the photo.
I’d be pissed too.
[ Have the kind of people who Photoshop images of Tony Abbott to satirical effect ever noticed how brilliant this photo of him is? ]
Oh my doG!! Is that somewhat scary or what!!
And the little girl in yellow behind him looks like she has worked that out.
Bushfire Bill
Wasn’t aware that you heard so much about my twitter followers, so sorry
And I think you know the answer to your question! no they are not over here with me but are like some PBers interested in where I go. Any other questions?
[Perhaps the kid behind him, is better judgement than the Australian people?]
Yep the girl with the great curly hair is onto “Uncle Tony”.
[Wasn’t aware that you heard so much about my twitter followers, so sorry]
Apart from just about every post you make, if it isn’t about your Twitter followers, it’s about your international travels.
Good luck to you, Mari.
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 1m
Will this just be a Liberal ploy to agree to state leaders & soften budget measures & make state Lib leaders more popular before elections?
mari:
Did you ever hear from Schnappi?
[But the prime minister appears to have backed away from his threat to hold a double dissolution election over the budget, saying the crossbenchers would understand its harsher measures.]
I say what?
Dee@725
Why do you still expect anything Abbott says to make sense?
Confessions
No re Schnappi, think I told you you rang the Victorian police, felt almost silly as didn’t know his proper name etc, but they were very nice said they would follow up, could only give thenm his email address and twitter address and the photo of him on his twitter address. Nothing has happened since, I really don’t know what else to do, think Crikey Whitely is the same full stop as me
Sachin Lara…two of my favourite batsmen ever…
It’s a good point about his one week every year in the indigenous community.
He has less than 6 months to keep this promise (yes I know).
Right now I think most of his colleagues would be encouraging him to spend a month in the wilderness.
From no lesser a journalist than the daughter of Piers Akerman…
[Abbott stands down on early election
10:23AM PIA AKERMAN
TONY Abbott has backtracked from suggestions of a double-dissolution election, saying he expects the next election to be held in 2016 as planned.]
Love the use of “backtrack”.
God knows what word they would have used had it been Julia Gillard.
There would have been at least an “In another humiliating backdown…” thrown in there somewhere.
[Matthew Knott @KnottMatthew 19m
Before the election Mr Palmer opposed uni fees, on Friday he told us he’s open to fee deregulation, today tweets no student should pay fees.]
Is this correct? If so, file it alongside the many other issues on which Palmer’s position changes according to the tides.
Abbott’s business shirts are very odd.
They’re so tight they can’t possibly go over that chunky watch he wears. Which is not de rigueur at all…
mari:
Sorry, didn’t think not to bring this up while you’re holidaying. You’ve done all you can, and as I said the other week, hopefully by the time you get back Schnappi will have gotten over his funk and be back in the land of all that is twitter.
Enjoy your trip. 🙂
Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson May 15
Last year I repeatedly said a Coalition Government would “cut to the bone.” Coalition backers said it was an outrageous lie. Who lied?
The trick with Palmer seems to be to sign up to stuff on the day when he agrees with your particular proposition.
mari
Surely the police would have information about Schnappi, sheez?
Can you believe it?
Kenny (the one with the head like a soccer ball) reckons Abbott’s only lie was on the high income tax.
I’m bemused. (Though that’s not my name).
After a honeymoonless 8 months full of missteps and a distrusted leader, then a horror budget.,,
The LIb-Nats are on 38%. Labor would’ve sacrificed even more leaders to have that kind of floor under their vote. Mssrs Loughnane & Co shan’t lose sleep over this.
If nothing else this proves that budget bounces (+ or -) are largely mythical.
Mari – I think you’ve done everything you can reasonably do.
@Confessions/730
Not correct, before election, he said that high fees were holding the country back.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-more-open-to-hike-in-student-loans-20140517-38gw6.html
“Before the election Mr Palmer said high tertiary education fees were holding the country back.”We need Australia’s cleverest people taking themselves and this great nation forward, not burying them under a mountain of debt,” he said.”
“But the mining magnate now says he is open to Mr Pyne’s sweeping reforms. Mr Palmer, who has had a fractious relationship with Coalition MPs including Prime Minister Tony Abbott, said he would make his decision based on the national interest.”
It doesn’t suggest that he is open to high fees, it could be the opposite to get the reforms through the senate.
I guess it’s a wait and see and some clarification from Clive.
Henry:
The incoming Senate is going to be crazy. Between the king of populism in SenX, the intractable purity of the Greens, the numptyism of the horseshoe man from Vic and that FF guy in SA, there’s the PUP Senators whose votes will either be cast according to the whim of individual senators, or the whim of their leader depending on how the wind is blowing that day.
Eek! 😮
[Except that Labor wasn’t tearing itself apart – that was a confection of the media’s.
Gillard became PM unopposed. When Rudd challenged her later, she had a record majority of MPs supporting her.
A small minority of dedicated whingers kept undermining their own government. You get them in any party – the Liberals have them in record numbers! – and usually they’re dismissed by the media as dissatisfied nutters.]
Really Zoomsster you are pathetic…I guess you have to trott this stuff out to fit in with your chosen faction..who knows why the dishonesty.
It is a thing of amazement that during all her term never once could her disciples bring themselves to put any blame on her at all. The first leader, captain, PM, President etc in history (except Nth Korea) that was exempt from blame for the performance of their government.
That is how desperate and how deeply in denial they are, her abysmal, Labor destroying performance was not her fault at all apparently…though she had a long time to perform.
Ohh it had to be Rudd. But the reality is that if she was any sort of PM and national leader at all there would never arise the need for leadership speculation. And if Rudd wasn’t around it most certainly would have been someone else….since labor in the end did not want to be destroyed back to the stone age.
AND let us not overlook the incredible hypocrisy of Zoomster and her ilk. Gillard and her team a full 12 months before hand at least, planned and executed a leaking, undermining and ambushing of PM Rudd, purely for factional power play reasons. The plan hatched long before any of these later memes could have been evident.
AND to make matters 1000% worse.. not only did they plan and back stabb a popular and electorally performing PM (52/48)…they back stabbed a first term PM, they back stabbed a PM who bought labor in out of a very long time in opposition, a PM that defeated Howard even in his own seat.
The very reason we have Abbott now is because of Gillard and her teams dishonesty and selfish grab for power.
672
confessions
Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
Once again, she misunderestimated Abbott. It’s hard to believe just how vicious and focused this bloke can be. It’s fooled many of his opponents in the past. The losers have all had trouble believing that any one man could be so antagonistic and malignant towards them. He has no mercy at all, no real human feelings.
[That’s why I’m relishing his eventual demise. I hope the polls continue to tank for the coalition, and that Abbott is forced to endure the public ridicule Gillard did by virtue of his satisfaction/approval ratings continuing into freefall.
If his leadership bleeds out over the next 2 years to the point where they have to knock him off in order to have a reasonable chance at the next election, then all well and good. Even better would be Abbott seeing his govt be a one term govt meaning he gets his arse booted out for good.]
I say beware.
The Tories are past masters at creating division, creating fear and offering “something for nothing deals”. I can see it now. Given the chance, they will go to the election promising to abolish the Medicare Levy while also abolishing the Commonwealth Department of Health and promising extra taxing powers for the States.
They will try the same thing on with education – promise to support the States or private sector schools in any way they ask – while also abolishing the Commonwealth Education Department.
They have a model, which is Howard’s termination of labour market programs, the dissolution of the Department of Employment and the privatisation/ outsourcing of labour market support services – something that is an ineffectual con.
All of this will be sold as the end of duplication, as a means of reducing taxes, achieving smaller Government and ending the Age of Entitlement. What it really will be is a dismantling of State-sponsored mutual social insurance for medical, educational, invalidity and unemployment costs. The intention is to reverse the system of State-directed social and economic mobility and restore a re-stratified social order.
Given the chance, they will also legislate against unions. They will make it more difficult to organise and recruit members, take industrial action and engage in political campaigns. If they can get away with this, they will also try to abolish the minimum wage.
If they can get away with all this, they will try to provoke a reaction from the unions so they can run the mother of all scare campaigns – a massive “Who runs the country?” fear and loathing project.
This is the game plan. It’s plain as day.
zoid:
Thanks. Still not feeling PUP as a great saviour of the country that commenters regularly espouse here.
The malaysian aircraft mystery
___________
A new book looks at the possibility that the aircraft was shot down by the US which was conducting military exercises over the Gulf of Thailand on that night….a fact
I hadn’t heard of before
The author
says if they did the Americans would have denied or con cealed the fact…not having any wish to get the blame and being underb no pressure to tell the truth
Some years ago they did shoot down an Iranian aircraft over the Gulf by accident which they were forced to admid..reluctantly,,,and push down the memory hole,,,but the Iranians remember…ao all the fruitless searching of the WA coast was an elaborate lie
Would Abbott have known.??..and he would have lied willingly if told too by his masters in the Pentagon
see book review
Book revieww re Malaysian aircraft
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/first-book-on-mh370-mystery-blames-us-war-games-20140517-38gmf.html
Kenny reckons that Abbott has not broken promises because they don’t come into effect for 3 years and there will be an election before that time.
Hello…why put it into this budget? Why not propose it before an election?
What a numbskull he (Kenny) is, truly!
[zoomster #679
The treasonous Rudd faction was intent on systematically tearing the Govts primary vote down by working in concert with Murdoch, which in effect tore the ALP apart.
The drovers dog could’ve led the Conservatives to victory, Actually would much prefer a drovers dog as PM right now.]
And let us not forget Rex’s extreme and irrational butt-hurtedness over Rudd.
So if we talk of Treason let us talk of Gillard…or is one allowed to murder because you fancy them but you can accuse another for the same.
It was Gillard’s backers that were intent on dragging Labor down to get to Rudd, he was way too popular..hence the leaking, ambushing and so forth…and even then he was still on 52/48…. and because there was zero reason to betray the public and Rudd they had to try and character assassinate him.
Rex and Zoomster have their childish little tantrums and lash out at Rudd. You can just see them saying ‘ i hate you mummy’
@Centre/746
Yeah, like calling a DD now would help.
[Thanks. Still not feeling PUP as a great saviour of the country that commenters regularly espouse here.]
Gotta agree with you there Confie.
The only thing that would change my mind is if Palmer agreed to a lockup with top Climate scientists over a weekend and changed his silly mind on Global Warming.
briefly:
I’ve no doubt that’s the plan. I’m just saying that Abbott’s time will eventually come, and when it does I’ll relish it. I just hope his time comes sooner rather than later.