The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)
With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).
The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.
The voting intention and the good/bad figures seem out of kilter with the beter off/worse off numbers.
I’ll wait for one or two more polls,I think. This looks a bit conservative to me.
Hi William, although the TPP on this Galaxy is unchanged from some of the pre-budget polls, its not from Galaxy specifically. The last one a fortnight ago was 52-48, so its a one point shift to the ALP.
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/30-april-1/
I have the previous galaxy as ALP 52:48, therefore a change in 2PP this time of +1 to Labor.
In relation to the Galaxy results, I think the slide for Abbott and his government will become more apparent in weeks to come.
Thanks Leroy and Fred, corrected.
Looks like William had better apply his bias balancer to Galaxy…… after all it’s almost agreeing with Reachtel
Abbott at minus 20 and falling 🙂
Yeah. The Galaxy results are probably equal to an ALP 54:46 Neilson on Sunday night/Monday morning!
And the only way I can get 53:47 with those primaries for the 2 majors and PUP on 8 is with ‘others’ at 5 [-2 and Greens unchanged at 11.
?
I want to see the updated Abbott disapproval figures.
cud chewer,
[ Abbott at minus 20 and falling 🙂 ]
He might need a new thermometer~! 😉
Well, it’s gunna be fascinating to see how Abbott et al are gunna handle the blowtorch to the belly, especially when he’s the one that’s ignited it!
@12
That’s easy, blame Labor for debt and deficit, the news papers hide the bad news.
It’s only a newspaper poll, but I bet it is enough to give the new LNP Member for Capricornia heartburn. Hockey’s Budget is not going well up here.
Reader poll
If a Federal Election was called today, who would you vote for?
Current Results
Palmer United Party – 11%
Katter’s Australian Party – 1%
Australian Labor Party – 56%
The Liberal National Party – 18%
The Greens Party – 11%
This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.
Abbott’s -ve net sat is hardly surprising. He’s just spent the last couple of weeks convincing everyone that nothing he says can be relied on. In fact, now we can expect Abbott and Co to do the opposite of anything they say. It really does look like power has gone to their heads – like they believe they can try anything, get away with everything.
Dan
[I want to see the updated Abbott disapproval figures]
If you want to ‘hear’ updated Abbott disapproval numbers…head to your nearest March in May tomorrow.
I am hanging for a Monday Morgan outlier to break the 55 line. Go you good Roy Morgan thing!
[And the only way I can get 53:47 with those primaries for the 2 majors and PUP on 8 is with ‘others’ at 5 [-2 and Greens unchanged at 11.
?]
I get there with Greens 10% and others 6%. Why is Greens 11% and others 5% a problem particularly?
It apears that one of my posts disappeared into the ether.
It was a post responding to
poroti 576
A most excellent nom de guerre.
It was
Thanks my name is from a movie in which Kurt Russell plays a super Hero. the movie is “Sky High” a very funny family type movie Warren Peace is the son of a Super hero and and a super villian, War and Peace< which allows me to be good cop bad cop if I wish
zoidlord
I think they’ll be plenty of that, but I think that if this momentum we’re seeing at the moment goes to grow it’ll be case of ‘he can run, but he can’t hide’.
Not quite fixed yet, William. Still reads ” Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47″
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/melbourne-mother-kaye-stirland-writes-open-letter-to-treasurer-
A surprisingly good open letter on New Ltd site re Budget
I see the DT article claims it’s “unchanged” by the way.
WarrenPeace,
It made it onto the previous thread ok!
Ah. All good now. Thanks William.
@19
I don’t have high hopes.
Did someone say LIBSPILL earlier?
Hypothetically, should such a thing happen, is Hockey now struck from the list of candidates?
Blimey, nearly time to turn into a pumpkin. Night all.
There could hardly be a less propitious time for a Federal Treasurer to slam household incomes and confidence. the china economy is decelerating very quickly as the property market there bursts, already impelling marked decline in export prices.
http://english.caixin.com/2014-05-16/100678590.html
[An investment banker has blamed the recent slowdown in China’s property market on the triple whammy of a graying population, high prices and oversupply – and he says urbanization won’t ride to the rescue…
Also, high prices for homes mean most people are having difficulty making a purchase, Ha said. He estimated that in many large and medium-sized cities, average monthly payments on mortgages accounted for up to 78 percent of household income last year, up from 62 percent in 2010.
“Such a high rate is unacceptable for most normal families,” Ha said, adding that a more reasonable level was 50 percent.
Finally, the total area of the country’s commercial properties under construction was 4.9 billion square meters at the end of last year, Ha said, and this was four times what was needed. And this oversupply will only worsen as population growth slows, he said.
As for suggestions that rapid urbanization will aid the property market, Ha said many migrant workers cannot afford home prices in big cities. “Urbanization can’t save China’s property market.”]
Not a problem, just playing with numbers.
Greens at 11, others at 5 gives me 53 comfortably but 10/6 is only just 52.6. Depends on fractions I suppose.
anyway we’ll find out soon I hope.
PS the words ‘is unchanged’ need to be omitted from the second sentence in the intro.
jeez that change occurred whilst typing.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 38 (+1) GRN 10 (-1) PUP 8 (+2) #auspol
The Greens are on 10 (-1). The poll was taken 14-16 May, 1399 voters
http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1511855/xi-jinpings-new-normal-chinese-characteristics
[The world needs to get ready for a new normal with Chinese characteristics. Reacting to yet more evidence that China’s growth is moderating quickly, President Xi Jinping more or less told us last weekend to get used to it.
“We must boost our confidence, adapt to the new normal condition based on the characteristics of China’s economic growth in the current phase and stay cool-minded,” Xinhua quoted Xi as saying.
What that means for China is not just slow growth, but slow growth complicated by a lot of debt, a hint of deflation, trouble brewing in the real-estate sector and very limited policy options.
What that means for the rest of the world is less demand for natural resources and even less reason to be optimistic about the prospect for more, well, normal labour markets and inflation.]
March tomorrow
Democracy ya don’t use it ya lose it!!!
[ In relation to the Galaxy results, I think the slide for Abbott and his government will become more apparent in weeks to come. ]
99.999% of punters will have not even had a cursory flick through the published budget papers. They will be finding out things they don’t like (allowances cut, programs defunct….) over the next few months and wont be liking any of it. I think the political damage from this budget is just beginning.
‘night all. Going to get some kip. Another good day for Labor!
Just saw your post imacca before closing the PC. I totally agree. It’s a bit like sun damaged skin. You don’t get to see the results of the sun damage until years later, only in Abbott’s case it will become obvious over the coming weeks and months!
What a nice poll to greet me here at Sigapore airport. Onwards to Heathrow in half an hour , a happy woman 😀
Re Poll
________
We can assume that 85% of Green prefs go to Labor…but the Palmer prefs are less clear the end result
In view of his harsh critique of Abbott and his gang…is it possible that Palmer’s prefs would go more strongly to Labor than at the last election…that changes the poll result
It’s certainly true that Palmer preferences are a bit of an unknown variable. I wouldn’t assume they will be worse for the Coalition than they were at the election, because PUP got a lot of Labor-identifying voters looking for somewhere to park a protest vote, and their preferences tended to come back to Labor. Whereas I think what we’re seeing now is PUP peeling votes off the Coalition, so that the pool of PUP voters is further to the right than it used to be.
Simon
[If you want to ‘hear’ updated Abbott disapproval numbers…head to your nearest March in May tomorrow.]
Yep. I’ll be there at only my second political rally. The first one was in March 😉
Surprised to see you speculating on the nature of PUP vote, William, although your supposition is certainly most logical one that springs to my mind. 🙂
BB,
The film “Black and White” was exceptionally well written and superbly acted. I’ve spent an hour since it ended attempting to purchase it online, but having no luck at all.
The finding that this is the worst received budget in a generation was well worth waiting up for.
Night all.
March in May rallies tomorrow …in Sydney/Perth/Adelaide
_______________________
http://musicfeeds.com.au/news/sarah-blasko-playing-march-in-may-rally-rap-against-abbott-to-follow/
see above for times and places of rallies
Swing Required@1
It is usual for this to be the case, but to not quite the same degree. Check the graphs in Mumble here:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/how_high_will_it_go/
Note how the axis for one has -40 in the middle and the axis for the other has 0. So about a 40% gap is pretty common.
It’s very likely that a lot of voters have just swallowed that the harsh medicine is needed, unlike 1993 when they not only thought it was bad for them but also that it was bad for everyone, and hence the government fell off a cliff (9 point Newspoll to Newspoll swing!)
It’s like a jungle sometimes
It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under
Broken glass everywhere
People pissin’ on the stairs, you know they just don’t care
I can’t take the smell, can’t take the noise
Got no money to move out, I guess I got no choice
Rats in the front room, roaches in the back
Junkies in the alley with a baseball bat
I tried to get away but I couldn’t get far
Cause a man with a tow truck repossessed my car
[Chorus]
Don’t push me cause I’m close to the edge
I’m trying not to lose my head
It’s like a jungle sometimes
It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under
Standin’ on the front stoop hangin’ out the window
Watchin’ all the cars go by, roarin’ as the breezes blow
Crazy lady, livin’ in a bag
Eatin’ outta garbage pails, used to be a fag hag
Said she’ll dance the tango, skip the light fandango
A Zircon princess seemed to lost her senses
Down at the peep show watchin’ all the creeps
So she can tell her stories to the girls back home
She went to the city and got so so seditty
She had to get a pimp, she couldn’t make it on her own
[Chorus]
It’s like a jungle sometimes
It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under
My brother’s doin’ bad, stole my mother’s TV
Says she watches too much, it’s just not healthy
All My Children in the daytime, Dallas at night
Can’t even see the game or the Sugar Ray fight
The bill collectors, they ring my phone
And scare my wife when I’m not home
Got a bum education, double-digit inflation
Can’t take the train to the job, there’s a strike at the station
Neon King Kong standin’ on my back
Can’t stop to turn around, broke my sacroiliac
A mid-range migraine, cancered membrane
Sometimes I think I’m goin’ insane
I swear I might hijack a plane!
[Chorus]
It’s like a jungle sometimes
It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under
My son said, Daddy, I don’t wanna go to school
Cause the teacher’s a jerk, he must think I’m a fool
And all the kids smoke reefer, I think it’d be cheaper
If I just got a job, learned to be a street sweeper
Or dance to the beat, shuffle my feet
Wear a shirt and tie and run with the creeps
Cause it’s all about money, ain’t a damn thing funny
You got to have a con in this land of milk and honey
They pushed that girl in front of the train
Took her to the doctor, sewed her arm on again
Stabbed that man right in his heart
Gave him a transplant for a brand new start
I can’t walk through the park cause it’s crazy after dark
Keep my hand on my gun cause they got me on the run
I feel like a outlaw, broke my last glass jaw
Hear them say “You want some more?”
Livin’ on a see-saw
[Chorus]
It’s like a jungle sometimes
It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under
A child is born with no state of mind
Blind to the ways of mankind
God is smilin’ on you but he’s frownin’ too
Because only God knows what you’ll go through
You’ll grow in the ghetto livin’ second-rate
And your eyes will sing a song called deep hate
The places you play and where you stay
Looks like one great big alleyway
You’ll admire all the number-book takers
Thugs, pimps and pushers and the big money-makers
Drivin’ big cars, spendin’ twenties and tens
And you’ll wanna grow up to be just like them, huh
Smugglers, scramblers, burglars, gamblers
Pickpocket peddlers, even panhandlers
You say I’m cool, huh, I’m no fool
But then you wind up droppin’ outta high school
Now you’re unemployed, all non-void
Walkin’ round like you’re Pretty Boy Floyd
Turned stick-up kid, but look what you done did
Got sent up for a eight-year bid
Now your manhood is took and you’re a Maytag
Spend the next two years as a undercover fag
Bein’ used and abused to serve like hell
Til one day, you was found hung dead in the cell
It was plain to see that your life was lost
You was cold and your body swung back and forth
But now your eyes sing the sad, sad song
Of how you lived so fast and died so young so
[Chorus]
Further re #46 the gap between economic and personal ratings of 59 points is higher than any in Newspoll ever, though it was 58 points in 1996.
I’ve updated my budget polling article at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/budget-blowout-in-coalition-polling.html If Newspoll replicates Galaxy then this is a new species of budget reception!
Paul@6
It’s a point below it; my current correction to RT is exactly that + I suspect William’s is similar.
Galaxy is like a golf ball that always lands on the fairway somewhere and usually right in the middle of it. Quite uncanny how little it bounces around. When was the last rogue Galaxy poll? Was there ever one?
Now the party’s over, I’m so tired
Then I see you coming out of nowhere
Much communication in a motion
Without conversation or a notion
Avalon
When the samba takes you out of nowhere
And the background’s fading out of focus
Yes the picture’s changing every moment
And your destination, you don’t know it
Avalon
When you bossanova there’s no holding
Would you have me dancing out of nowhere
Avalon [Repeats]