Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition’s position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

840 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Re Thomas Paine @741: The very reason we have Abbott now is because of Gillard and her teams dishonesty and selfish grab for power.

    I respectfully beg to disagree. While Labor disunity didn’t help, both Rudd and Gillard were hopeless at getting their message across after the first year or so. Both were poor at the impementation of good policy. And Rudd seemed to go into a funk after the rejection of the CPRS. He might have recovered given time, but who knows.

    But the Dark side had 70% of the old media actively campaigning for them for four years. While Labor in the early days had (50 + x)% of the people on it’s side in early 2010, it had 95% of the money against it. The virulent campaign to drive Labour out of office that ran from 2010 to 2013 would most probably have worked whoever was leader – Rudd, Gillard, Jesus or an inanimate carbon rod. Blaming everything on Julia Gillard is a very long bow.

  2. Regarding uni fees, in my own family the damage would be very widespread. The casualties of Abbotts’ ambush include 1 nurse, 2 primary teachers, 1 psychologist, 1 lawyer, 2 engineers, 1 audiologist, 1 academic, 1 pharmacist, 1 nutritionist, 1 draftsman. That’s 12 young people from the generation that includes my own children and various nieces and nephews or their partners.

    If Abbott succeeds not only will he gouge many thousands from each of them, because he intends to disrupt the funding of education and health services for years to come, he may well completely over-turn their career plans and life-time opportunities.

    What an evil monster he is.

  3. BB:

    There’s nothing in anything Palmer has either said or done that leads me to believe that he acts other than solely in his interests. I’d like to think he’s messing with coalition heads, but at the end of the day I suspect his vote, and the vote of his party MPs can and will be bought if the price is right. Irrespective of whatever position he may have taken yesterday, last week, last month or even last year.

    I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist and therefore too risky to rely on to be a genuine national interest force in the Senate.

  4. [751
    William Bowe

    TP, aren’t you just the teensiest bit bothered about the fact that you’re the most boring man alive?]

    Someone has to be the village idiot, William. It might as well be TP. He seems to enjoy it.

  5. Apologies for setting off the Paine engine…and I was so careful not to mention He Who Must Not Be Named.

  6. Palmer whacking the Coalition over the head re: ‘budget crisis” calling them “liars” is most welcome.

    But, Palmer will roll over as soon as he gets his tummy rub.

    I see Pyne has been assigned this job.

  7. [I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist and therefore too risky to rely on to be a genuine national interest force in the Senate.]

    You put your case well, Fess. You’re probably right.

    But someone should at least try. Maybe challenge him to hear the truth on CC.

    And then, when it turns out he’d rather go on what some dodgy*** blog site says, at least we know for sure.

    *** as opposed to non-dodgy ones.

  8. Re Palmer post 757

    I don’t knopw how you would”buy” Palmers vote…not with money or services if any kind..hje cvan buy whatever he wants
    He is after all very wealthy

    I suspect a key is his hatred of Newman and more so ,…of Monster Murdoch…for whom his hatred can barely be concealed

    Great stuff and a terrible worry for Abbott

  9. Thank you Confessions Centre and Steve

    Re Schnappi, I just wish I could do more as I am very worried.. Hopefully something will turn up. Centre yes re police, I asked if they could chase twitter ot email provider for more info, they just told me they would follow and let me know, I told them I was going O/S but could be contacted through my email address. Have heard nothing so far

  10. Re Palmer. I don’t trust him. But I live in Joe Hockey’s electorate. There is no chance of Labor getting up in North Sydney but a credible independent (Ted Mack) did 20 years ago. If there were a passable Palmer candidate I would vote for them in the hope of damaging the Abbott Government by getting rid of Joe. My preferences would then go ALP, Green and so on with Joe last.

  11. confessions, i think Palmer will eventually swing round to opposing every budget measure put up by Abbott. This offers the quickest, easiest, cheapest way to accumulate votes.

    The only things he is highly likely to support are repeal of the CPM and the MRRT. However, because he probably pays little no MRRT, he may well play games with Abbott on that one too.

  12. Re TP
    Village idiot he is not!!
    Such tedious comment from Briefly is just silly
    TP marshalls much evidence and is a man of some passion

    I enjoy his scorn for some like Psephos, who sees himself as all knowing…(a know all ?)who when around derides all his question his word or his unashamed zionism

    Keep it up Tom

  13. Not sure about Clive

    But he ( Clive ) acknowledged he has a good relationship with the architect of the reforms, Education Minister Christopher Pyne, who the Prime Minister has made responsible for managing government communication with Mr Palmer.

    ”I’ve known Christopher Pyne for a long time,” Mr Palmer said. ”He’s a very entertaining member of Parliament.”

    Read more:

  14. Confessions

    “I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist”

    That’s true, but he is a human and like all of us needs to save face at least a bit, and Abbott’s manifest disrespect for him thus far must stimulate a modicum of ire.

    He may be able to herd his cats to knock back one or two bits of the budget …. who knows …. but whatever happens I think he’ll at least bring about some amendments and backdowns, if his personal will does prevail.

    If his personal will does not prevail on his hotch potch of senators, god knows how the cards will fall.

  15. I’ve read a lot of commentary since the budget and am watching Abbott on Insiders being questioned by Fran. It’s clear that the Gov is very close to getting away with winning a huge part of the debate without much challenge at all.

    In the same way it is “accepted wisdom” that HIP was a deadly debacle, and that BER was a huge waste of cash and that the stimulus was overdone (if not unnecessary), it is now becoming accepted wisdom that deep cuts of some kind are necessary (just a matter of what is cut and how much) and that the Coalition are “getting the deficit under control”.

    Why is it so rarely mentioned that:

    * they are not actually cutting spending. Spending as a % of GDP will be higher during this Term than it was under the last 3 years of Labor;

    * they are not actually reducing the deficit any faster than it was already forecast under Labor. Labor’s last deficit was under $19 billion – the first deficit forecast following huge cuts under the Coalition is forecast to be $31 billion.

    It seems obvious that the controversial cuts are paying for PPL, company tax cuts, MRRT removal, carbon price removal, new Direct Action farce, FBT breaks, removal of Super tax and even a quarter of a billion for bloody school chaplains.

    Letting the government get away unchallenged (relatively) with their false claim that the cuts are necessary for reducing the deficit is ceding one of the most important arguments – it is giving the government a legitimate reason for the cuts besides simple ideology.

    Now Lenor Taylor on insiders is making the same mistake – saying that we “must have a chat about the GST”, again ignoring the reasons for the cuts.

    Let’s have the proper debate: do we want Gonski or the PPL?

    Do we want a Medicare surcharge or do we want to get rid of the mining tax?

    Do we want to cut the CSIRO to the bone or do we want to stop increased funding for school chaplains?

    Do we want the NDIS or do we want a company tax cut?

    Do we want to slash welfare for under 30’s or do we want to tighten FBT rules?

    Yes everything is a matter of priorities but why is only one side of the equation negotiable?

    And that is before I even start on Superannuation and negative gearing…

    Yes there is a bit of commentary along these lines, but very little mainstream. Focusing only on broken promises, or only on the effects of the cuts without continuing to drive home the REAL reason for a lot of the cuts is short-sighted and risky.

    IMHO of course!

  16. Thomas. Paine – Rudd and his backers gave us the Abbott government and I don’t thank him for that. He was a dysfunctional PM and thank goodness Gillard did the heavy lifting for 3 years for the betterment of the country. What a shame Abbott is doing repairable damage now but I guess to ideologues that does not matter. Move on FFS

  17. More re Palkmer
    If he can get into a position in Gland where he can get Green prefs and then leap-from ober Labor in many safer Lib seats he may win many in the swing aaginst Newman

    He might do the same in the Vic Upper House,or even some assembly seats if he can capture disillusioned Lib voters …though I suspect the Vic public is a great deal more sophisticated than those in QLand

  18. [769

    Re TP
    Village idiot he is not!!
    Such tedious comment from Briefly is just silly
    TP marshalls much evidence and is a man of some passion]

    Are you his understudy?

  19. I went to the Adelaide March in May, today. There were thousands of people, lots of signs (the funniest one imo said, “Abbott is a vampire.”).

  20. [But someone should at least try. Maybe challenge him to hear the truth on CC.]

    Palmer’s company reportedly hasn’t paid his carbon price ‘bill’ (for want of a better word for it), and threatened High Court action against the then govt over imposing carbon pricing.

    Yes he appears opposed to ABbott’s expensive, regressive DA, but this shouldn’t be taken as him accepting the scientific consensus of AGW.

  21. mari:

    Enjoy your holiday. You’ve done all you can, and I’m sorry for bringing up the subject and worrying you all over again. You can’t do any more.

  22. Palmer may have an accumulated MRRT credit by now….we cannot know, of course. If this were the case, he may benefit by maintaining the MRRT for a while. He could very well just abstain on the MRRT – would be smart politics – and then Abbott would be unable to amend it.

  23. Speaking of herding cats, here’s what the future might hold, from an ABC RN report a few days back.

    Evidently the governorship of Idaho is up for grabs and a public debate was held.

    The Republican governor refused to participate in a debate with the Democrat challenger unless all the micro loons up for election were also invited.

    His purpose was to blunt any attack on himself by the Democrat, by the time allowed being widely shared into small portions for each of the many candidates.

    Some well known media identity (their “Ray Martin”, but a lady) was moderator.

    Some of the micro loons made the Tea Party candidate look like a left wing progressive.

    The moderator came under a little tongue in cheek criticism because she had to continually place her hand over her mouth and face, to hide her laughter so ridiculous were the claims and policies of the loons.

  24. mari

    The police should have more information by now. Maybe some other Victorian Bludgers that know their MP’s can get the cops to pull finger out.

  25. Palmer also makes a big thing of his concern for the Oldies…many of who are just realising that their long -held conservative voting habits are doing them no good…they may be attracted to Palmer in the months ahead

    I know of two such oldies..both Libs…but ones who are shocked to learn how their comfortable but modest lifestyles will be affected ,and are both a bit worried by it all ..and far from happy

  26. Just been to a family do. Normally pretty entertaining as there be Liberals voters there.

    -No-one willing to defend the destruction of Medicare.
    -No-one to defend the destruction of the NBN, it’s been done in South Korea; what it their problem was one comment.
    -No-one willing to defend the destruction of the ETS.
    -None willing to disagree that spending a bit on the dole is cheaper than locking people up because they have no other option other than crime.
    -Noone willing to defend these people that got their education for free increasing the cost of education for their kid.

    I got to rant against Abbott and there was silence.

    Who did there blame for their terrible mistake; believing the Liberals were still the Liberals; not a bunch of radicals.

    Sorry TP, it was Rudd.

    Myself I don’t care about the Gillard/Rudd thing but there you are; Australia stuffed up; Australia is to blame, Rudd is nothing more than the excuse.

    Australia is sending Rudd to hell and Gillard to sainthood.

  27. Re student fees. I had a look in the Sydney University Calender for 1972, a time before Whitlam abolished fees. Typically they were around $500 per annum, or around $1,600 for a 3 year basic degree in Arts or Science. About $3,300 for Vet Science. If you check the RBA inflation calculator you can multiply by about 10 to convert to today’s values. And back then degrees weren’t required for everything.

    We are really doing today’s young people a grave disservice crushing them with debt at the outset of their career. There’s got to be abetter way. There is. Shred the Abbott Government to start with.

  28. briefly:

    Not sure about that. I think PUP needs to be strategic in what it opposes from the govt, pick the fights it can win support on.

    None of this however endears me to PUP. Already I’ve waned away from Palmer because of his flip flopping on various issues. It fills me with dread, and the only silver lining is that it’s a coalition govt which has to deal with his uncertainty, which I’m sure they’ll counter by throwing money and perks at his interests. Just like Howard did with recalcitrant Senate obstruction.

  29. [ Australia is sending Rudd to hell and Gillard to sainthood. ]

    And will be sending Abbott to join Rudd shortly.

  30. [I think he has paid his CPM bill. Now he wants his money back.]

    Great. Not.

    That’s even worse. Vested Interests Central, not Palmer United Party.

  31. Zoidlord

    Questions for Joe on Q & A …….

    1…. Does your family trust ( or you ) have any mortgages on property, what proportion of your annual income does the borrowing represent?

    2… How does this compare with Australia’s debt to GDP ration?

  32. I’ve retrieved all the old Nielsen yearly polling PDFs that used to be on their website, and anyone who wants a copy I can email them to (email requests to me at, do not post them here as I may not see them.) 1996-2011, missing 2002, gappy in some other years.

    I’ve previously tried to use Wayback to recover these data without success but this time I was successful.

  33. Speaking of Nielsen, must be very close to the witching hour if it is emerging this week; anyone know?

  34. Confessions

    Palmer is not stupid he knows Labor will not block supply. He will stick to his word on medicare and pensions because its in his self interest.

    Thus Abbott will be exposed as the coward he is as no DD called after triggers provided. OF course that is if you had not worked that out about Abbott after todays walk away from election rhetoric.

  35. 786 Twaddle re TP and Deblonay
    Given the nonsense theories you put on this site I’m not a bit surprised at what you believe..Twaddle

    As far as TP and me and our views.are concerned might be a case of Great Minds often think alike !

  36. Attacking the lowest income earners is economically bad policy whereas a rise in the high income tax will not harm the economy.

    You should be very careful when taxing the people who spend all their money. If they have less to spend, there MUST be less sales of goods and services. That leads to less profits, less jobs and lower taxation revenues.

    I’m really sick of right wing ideology and the L OO NS with their desire for big sexy deficits are no better.

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