The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)
With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).
The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.
Yes young people are disengaged, I saw a uni student admitablely one from a well off family was claiming that the budget was good and many of his friends were in agreement with him!
Not sure if i should break it too him that by going straight from undergraduate to masters without work experience wont guarantee a job and there may be a period of unemployment.
dav e
[Additionally don’t necessarily assume China’s progress will be without serious setback or setbacks – all sorts of circumstances can and probably will occur.]
Your points about the malays, broadly-defined, are interesting.
Cf the straight line, I couldn’t agree more. IMHO, part of the South China Sea bellicosity ATM is the old unicorn strategy. The switch from state-funded infrastructure development to consumer-funded development is devilish tricky in a command and control economy.
My main point stands. The asians basically own asia. We had better get used to idea and learn to swim with the fishes.
With respect to the last chinese invasion of Vietnam, things move right along. The PLA has been modernised substantially since then.
If I recall correctly, Deng’s ‘explanation’ of the ‘Teach the Vietnamese a Lesson Campaign’ failure was that the Chinese Communist Party had launched the PLA into an invasion so that the PLA could learn that it needed to modernize.
Yeah. Sure.
[Well, of course, the LNP would have been asked “so what are your plans for health, education, pensions?” “what do you plan to cut?” ]
I can vividly remember Joe Hockey turning on Tony Jones, when quizzed on whether he would cut the ABC and asking:
“Do you say you have no inefficiencies?”
It was then that I realized they were going to gut the ABC.
No matter what they said afterwards, my overriding impression was that they were lying.
And guess what? I was RIGHT!
[
One of the great mysteries of our time, how Abbott became PM.
]
No it isn’t. Labor spent 6 years tearing themselves apart, and Abbott just happened to be lucky enough to have the role of Opposition leader while they were doing it.
The Libs could have had an Inanimate carbon rod as their leader and they would have won last years election. In fact they may have got a bigger majority with an inanimate carbon rod as their leader.
In rod we trust!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfTgxrxL9ug
victoria:
Still a very long bow.
mari
It’s serious. Dozens have drowned in Serbia and Bosnia.
SBS News is just no reporting that flooding has spread to Croatia’s ‘east’. It is serious. I don’t want to be a spoil sport but suggest you check before you venture thither.
mari
News reports suggest that the floods are in serbia and bosnia. Did not hear croatia mentioned
[Centre
Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 6:33 pm | Permalink
Victoria
If Abbott calls a DD I will eat 100 bananas in a row without eating anything else over the course of a week.]
There goes the DD.
mari
As boerwar said, the floods are very serious and widespread
[Adam bandt was one of the speakers and he was suggesting that if Labor and palmer together with thr greens block the budget, there can be a new PM by Xmas]
This is bollocks talk. I will never support blocking a supply bill, it was done once by that Bastard Fraser, never again.
We vote out Govts, we don’t force them out no matter how much we want to.
What next civil disobedience? Not for me.
For those of you who happen to be interested in abstruse points of religion, there is a major flashpoint in the subcontinent.
It is both profoundly simply and profoundly destabilising.
Low-caste Indians can escape the caste system by converting to islam, which is a fair bit more democratic and egalitarian.
Explosive stuff with Modi at the helm, IMHO.
ru
It wont happen. Labor wont do that. Not even sure the Greens would either
Thanks Boewar
Was going to do a day trip into Bosnia but will reassess. not looking good Fortunately nothing paid for, but have booked to go out to Lopud island and a resort out there for 6 days, so keep ypur fingers crossed for me
mari
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/serbia-and-bosnia-floods-at-least-20-dead-in-worst-flooding-since-records-began-9390263.html
I think the truth is that Abbott got under Rudd’s skin and spooked him.
As Rudd became more and more paranoid under Abbott’s attacks – attacks that were aided and abetted by a media looking for political amusement – it beacame possible – just possible – that Abbott cold pull of a big win, one that no-one had predicted or even contemplated a year before (certainly not me).
Part of Labor’s demise has to be sheeted home to Abbott’s relentless, historical tactic of king-hitting his bigger opponent before they knew what was happening.
Gillard just scraped in, did the deal withthe Independants and thought she was home free.
Once again, she misunderestimated Abbott. It’s hard to believe just how vicious and focused this bloke can be. It’s fooled many of his opponents in the past. The losers have all had trouble believing that any one man could be so antagonistic and malignant towards them. He has no mercy at all, no real human feelings. That’s unusual in modern civilized society.
Abbott needs to be given credit – call it raw aggression, political mercilessness, outright killer instinct – in order to understand what happened to Labor. They just couldn’t believe anyone could be so nakedly vicious.
As for the media, they couldn’t believe their luck.
BW – with Abe – his approach seems to saying he expects a fight with China when China is ready.
He seems to be saying – we want to take that option away from you – before Japan grows to weak and China to strong.
Force an error to make China look the aggressor ? All very high risk.
While not wanting a war – to an extent I can see part at least of the Japanese position.
mari
I DON’T KNOW but I am GUESSING from the reports that the serious flooding is on the inland side (generally north-eastern aspect, ie flowing into the Danube) of the divide and that the dalmation coast and thereabouts, with their shorter river lengths and shorter catchments, might be AOK.
rua:
Bandt’s talk is cheap, obviously trying to gee up the crowd.
[Was going to do a day trip into Bosnia but will reassess. not looking good Fortunately nothing paid for, but have booked to go out to Lopud island and a resort out there for 6 days, so keep ypur fingers crossed for me]
The Big Question is: “Will Mari’s many Twitter followers (whom we hear of so often) accompany her?”
dave
I have heard numerous reports of the Japanese being ‘paranoid’ about China. Quite right, IMHO. One tide goes out, the other comes in. The Japanese tide is going out. China’s tide is rising.
One of the peculiar aspects of Japan’s road to imperial self-immolation was that the ultra-right militarists of the day kept making what seems, in retrospect, crazy decisions. They were not only bad, but mad.
I get the same sort of feeling with some of the ultra-nationalists who are lurking in Abe’s shadow now. It is a definite worry.
Oooooh, just seen a promo about millions in taxpayers money, contracts and Liberals, finished with what did the attorney general know?
Find out tomorrow night!
Anyone know what this is about?
[Once again, she misunderestimated Abbott. It’s hard to believe just how vicious and focused this bloke can be. It’s fooled many of his opponents in the past. The losers have all had trouble believing that any one man could be so antagonistic and malignant towards them. He has no mercy at all, no real human feelings.]
That’s why I’m relishing his eventual demise. I hope the polls continue to tank for the coalition, and that Abbott is forced to endure the public ridicule Gillard did by virtue of his satisfaction/approval ratings continuing into freefall.
If his leadership bleeds out over the next 2 years to the point where they have to knock him off in order to have a reasonable chance at the next election, then all well and good. Even better would be Abbott seeing his govt be a one term govt meaning he gets his arse booted out for good.
Thanks for reports re flooding one good thing just checked weather for next 5 days for Croatia showers tomorrow then fine for next 4 days climbing to 25 celsius on Friday
Bushfire Bill what do you mean by that comment about my twitter followers? Just wondering?
BB
I agree with you!
This is a bloke who never had to do a real day’s work in his life.
He is the only male child in his family and lots were invested in him.
He had a try at entering the Church that failed.
He had what he thought was his child when it wasn’t and never seemed to pay any intention to the pregnant woman.
He is the only male in his own family with three daughters and thinks his shite doesn’t stink.
All in all not a leader of a country but a blatant opportunist.
May his God help us all!
Obama statemets in Japan anger China
____________________________
Obama crazy statements in Japen re those small rocky islands in the East China Sea caused much anger in China
where loathing of all things Japanese is still kept at a high level
One correspondent I read said that Obama’s alignment with Japan in any conflcit has made the Chinese determined.,.,not matter what the cost…to make the Japanese position untenable and the US can like it or lump it
The new Chinese actions in the South China Sea may be part of that…as will be the royal reception they will give Putin this week when he arrives in Beijing to sign the Trllion dollar gas-pipelines agreement with China…the biggest deal of its’ kind in history…coupled with a new trade deal between Russia and China
The two great powers make a perfect pair economically..and the “PIpelinestan” linking them will be a most important event,,,from which the US and the EU will be excluded
confessions
[That’s why I’m relishing his eventual demise.]
Here we go again. People keep jumping to conclusions about the Mad Monk. He may be immortal.
We should remember just how difficult it was to get rid of the last mad monk:
http://www.damninteresting.com/retired/the-death-of-grigory-rasputin/
If Abbott left politics, one of his legacies would be the sneering little crowd of ministers he leaves behind, whom he has encouraged to behave like him.
deblonay
It is not clear from your post whether you approve of Chinese actions in using military force to pre-empt resolution by dialogue of various international sea-boundary disputes.
Do you, or don’t you support these aggressive military actions by the chinese?
SMC
Except that Labor wasn’t tearing itself apart – that was a confection of the media’s.
Gillard became PM unopposed. When Rudd challenged her later, she had a record majority of MPs supporting her.
A small minority of dedicated whingers kept undermining their own government. You get them in any party – the Liberals have them in record numbers! – and usually they’re dismissed by the media as dissatisfied nutters.
In the last term of government, they were trotted out on every occasion. It was obvious, even from the reporting, that they were a mere handful of MPs, but the echo chamber of the media meant their message had far greater weight that it deserved.
Compare that to now – we have backbenchers spraying their discontent all over the place, but we don’t see screaming headlines about Liberal disunity, questions to the PM and Ministers about how long he can hold on to his position, etc etc.
mari
No worries. You are precious. We want you back safe and sound.
Rabbott gave his general undertakings, but also specific promises on specific topics.
I dont think he is going to get away with this line that the generalizations were more important than the specifics. I would argue that most people think specific undertakings actually qualify, define and focus generalized statements of direction.
Of course it rather depends on how much of the electorate is stupid and how stupid they are. Cue Mod Lib?? 🙂
Abbott is too weak to call a DD.
[lizzie
Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
Marching reported on CH7 as “Greens and Unions”. Naturally.]
Ch7 in Sydney showed protesters being arrested for sitting on the road and refusing to move. However only 13 were arrested and the footage showed only a small number involved in this, with arrest scenes being repeated to fill out the time of the commentary on the march.
This was followed by the premiers attacking the federal government and short grabs of Hockey and Abbott on TV today.
The overall reporting on the subject was not good for Hockey and Abbott. Perhaps some of the older people watching today might ‘fondly’ remember themselves in demonstrations 40+ years ago.
The news tonight was of “us” the people of Australia and state governments versus “them” the federal coalition.
I just heard a blatant lie on SBS news. They claimed that the Titanosaur fossil just found in Argentina was 100 million years old.
I call bullshit.
Everyone know that god created the world in seven days 6000 years ago.
citizen
Suddenly we ‘love’ our state governments because they seem to be sticking up for us. Strange feeling 😀
Thank you Boerwar
Re your comment appreciated.
Still waiting for Bushfire Bill’s reply to my question? as would like to know what he meant
I read your link re Balkans, many thanks it sure is serious
With the current level of deceit and attack on the vulnerable I think there’s a good case for blocking supply.
[
Except that Labor wasn’t tearing itself apart – that was a confection of the media’s.
]
zoomster
Labor changed leaders twice, had one unsuccessful challenge and one non challenge all within two terms of government. Never mind the various ministerial resignations etc. If that isn’t tearing yourself apart then nothing is.
lizzie
Abbott and Hockey blind-sided them.
But don’t be fooled in turn. The states’ historic task now is to create the platform for justifying regressive taxes, and a state/territory race to the bottom in a bid to attract ‘development’ capital.
This will, inevitably, be at the cost of the poorer citizenry at large and, of course, of the envioronment.
[ A small minority of dedicated whingers kept undermining their own government. You get them in any party – the Liberals have them in record numbers! – and usually they’re dismissed by the media as dissatisfied nutters. ]
Absolutely. What we see here on PB day in and day out is just reflective of the wider problem all parties face.
But funnily enough the media doesn’t spend too much time reporting on the rifts in the LNP.
Boerwar@684
Don’t worry, Boerwar – once the LNP has cleansed the CSIRO of unbelievers, the ABC and SBS will be next!
PO
Yes. CSIRO scientists kept claiming that climate ‘variation’* was caused in some stupid way by humans.
They have, of course, paid the price for their scientific ignorance.
*they were directed to use the term ‘variation’ instead of ‘change’. This will, of course, stop AGW in its tracks.
We have lunatics at the helm of the good ship Australia.
If Labor can get back reasonably quickly they could run scare campaigbs on what thd Liberals haven’t told the voters. Also campaign on the basis that their promises mean nothing and you can believe nothing they say.
[ Oooooh, just seen a promo about millions in taxpayers money, contracts and Liberals, finished with what did the attorney general know?
Find out tomorrow night! ]
What show??
Abbott lied…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHWNmeV9tw4&feature=youtu.be
BB
misunderestimated = Bushism
Hmmm “biofumigation” otherwise known as “crop rotation”.
A good thing to promote, but why call it “biofumigation”?
J
Because it uses biota.
Will Abbott keep his promise to stay a week per year with an indigenous community?
zoomster #679
The treasonous Rudd faction was intent on systematically tearing the Govts primary vote down by working in concert with Murdoch, which in effect tore the ALP apart.
The drovers dog could’ve led the Conservatives to victory, Actually would much prefer a drovers dog as PM right now.