BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. I do hope someone tells Warren Mundine that when whites start talking about trickle down in the vicinity of Indigenous people it is an excellent idea for Indigenous people to shift out of harm’s way.

  2. zoidlord

    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    You’d think Politicians learn about cutting essential services:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/clampdown-on-aggressive-behaviour-by-centrelink-and-child-support-clients/story-fni0fit3-1226896361559

    Abbott and Hockey have the solution……….they will move these services to Australia Post offices.

    Just what you want, go Post Office and end with a chair wrapped around your head….”compo”…

  3. [For many in the thirties, he is saying work another 40 years whether you like it or not and even if you are in no physical condition to do so – oh and vote us back in.]

    Yeah that’s what particularly irritates me, esp with the possible spectre of accompanying changes to super access laws on the horizon as well. Not bloody happy.

    I get that Hockey can’t do set speeches at all, but surely as he’s Treasurer now all eyes should be on him and his sales performances during budget week? Not Shorten and not the opposition.

  4. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 11m

    Families face temporary “debt tax” in #Budget2014 to help pay off deficit. Higher income earners to be hit Sunday Tele exclusive #auspol

  5. @AA/1553

    If lines in Post Office isn’t already bad enough, think again.

    But what will they do is move those on Pensions (both Age + DSP) on to newstart, forcing people to go into Centerlink again, and watch the complaints rise.

    But then again, that’s probably what they want to archive.

    So they can cut off their payments, so they don’t have to pay for them anymore…

  6. @Victoria/1561

    Who knows, don’t shoot the messenger.

    Don’t see how liberals can blame Labor on this new additional tax (on top of GP Tax).

  7. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    So a tax in the budget to reduce govt debt would be akin to a rate hike or two. Depends how big it is

  8. [I get that Hockey can’t do set speeches at all, but surely as he’s Treasurer now all eyes should be on him and his sales performances during budget week?

    Not Shorten and not the opposition. ]

    The tories are going to do what they always intended doing. They hold the power atm.

    The point is Shorten and Labor have a major opportunity to kick back at the hypocrisy of the tories and make it clear to those Australians willing to listen what they now need to do to stop the tories from pulling down what has taken many years to build up.

    Its about Shorten hitting back at the damage about to be done and trying to make apathetic voters wake up.

  9. mari@1543

    Ruawake Bemused and anyone else interested

    So for $170 delivered I can get a Netgate N750 router and a WN3500RP wifi extender with the 2.4 5 gb

    What do you think????? Surely that will last me for years.

    Will never get NBN where I live in 50 kms to north which my friends keep rubbing into me who live there

    Netgate or Netgear?

    Probably OK for your intended needs, but certainly not the latest and greatest.

    FWIW, mine must be around 10 years old and working fine.

    I don’t have experience with Netgear, so rely on ruawake’s advice. But don’t overlook that your problems could be cause entirely by your tablet’s poor performance or a fault.

  10. [1555
    zoidlord

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 11m

    Families face temporary “debt tax” in #Budget2014 to help pay off deficit. Higher income earners to be hit Sunday Tele exclusive #auspol]

    It looks like the LNP will do what they always do after they win elections – increase taxes, increase spending, cut services, cut welfare, cut investment and damage the economy in the process. They are such idiots.

  11. “NSW Libs are in a position not to need BOF’s seat. I guess they can get rid of him. It’s the smart thing to do.”

    How do they get rid of him he doesn’t want to go? Expel him from parliament? Get him knocked off?

  12. psyclaw@1546

    Bemused Comrade #1491

    I agree with you about ABC RN.

    Whilst on many occasions I’d like to jump down the line and inject FKelly with a “how to ask a decent question” medicine, the range and diversity of interviewees is very good indeed ….. many of them you won’t hear anywhere else.

    For example I often report here on early morning RN interviews and find that the issue at hand is not included on PB, in BK’s excellent links or by anyone else.

    And as a composite, regulars MGrattan and PBonjiorno have most opinion perspectives covered.

    There is a bizarre world some PBers inhabit where they just seem to get off on ABC bashing.

    Most points of view are well covered even if I don’t agree with some.

  13. No Food ,No blankets and no guns either
    ______________________________________
    \
    According to the Washington Times,the Ukrainian Army leaders are so corrupt that they have sold most of their equipment to other buyers …on the world black markets for arms

    Thus they are unable to carry out operations against the insurgents in the East for lack of resources

    They have even raided local vllages to get some food …some soldiers hadn’t eaten for several days ,and lacked even blankets for the cold night in their vehicles

    In Kiev everything is for sale it seem

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/23/sold-out-ukraines-leadership-swapped-best-military/

  14. [How do they get rid of him he doesn’t want to go? Expel him from parliament? Get him knocked off?]

    Pressure him to piss off, as per the media report quoted above.

  15. bemused 1566

    Sorry Netgear it is I am getting so tired now

    another person on twitter reckons just buy a Netgear DS300 Wi Fi router no need for an extender but the cheapest I can find is $220 delivered a bit dear I think?

  16. There are a handful of PBs who regularly suggest selling off the ABC because there are a couple of ABC reporters/presenters who regularly say things which suggest a Liberal bias.

    Completely ignore most of the other programs which ABC provide – Science Show, Catalyst, Health Report, Checkout etc.

    Not very strategic in my view when clearly a big majority of Australians support a quality ABC.

  17. @guytaur/1581

    Ahh “How you will pay for the budget mess” = Taking aim at Labor for dodging the MYEFO numbers and removing Debt Limit.

  18. I was about to say Labor and their supporters should not stop hammering about libs great new tax where ever they increase costs to the consumer but I was beaten by zoidlord and others

  19. bemused

    No you are big noting yourself. There are people out there who do not know the difference and to whom the term Fibre ready is something they need to know,

    As you conceded its not empty marketing crap as getting the wrong modem or router or combo could mean not FIbre Ready.

  20. Gaytaur\\re Times or Post
    ____________________
    Profile ??
    The same basic information re the collapse of the Ukr Army has appeared to my knowldge in recent days in Counterpunch and also Reuters…so “Profile” ???

    The facts seem to be proved by events….and despite threats ,there has been no real movement into the Eastern regions against largely armed civilians there

    problems…but the sale of military items seems to be so,….and I heard on BBC a report of the Ukr soldiers in the captured vehicles being feed by their captors after days of no food

    Napoleon said an army marches on it’s stomach …but not in the Ukr.ir seems
    Of course the economic collapse is another factor in the Ukr

  21. I’m sure BOF is aware that he was set up by others in the party (although he made it easy for them through his own stupidity) – he’s gunna seek revenge somehow.

  22. [And as a composite, regulars MGrattan and PBonjiorno have most opinion perspectives covered.]

    “MGrattan” certainly has most “option perspectives” covered with her now infamous ‘it could be this, or it could be that’ analysis.

  23. Wakefield

    I support a quality ABC.

    If you are not going to have a quality or truly independent ABC that does not echo News Ltd/Coalition propaganda and bias – sell it!

  24. Unless Marie Bashir is going to be Governor of NSW forever (she’s been in office since 2001), eventually a replacement will need to be found.

    Perhaps Baird will give Barry O’Farrell the Governorship as a bit of Bill Hayden-style compo?

  25. Debionay

    Facts prove other than what you are posting. I am pointing out to you people go to the Washington Post not the Washington times.

    You seem to come up with all kinds of excuses for Russia. You might as well just be showing RT video clips.

    The BBC, The Eurochannel France TV, Al Jazeera CCCTV are not reporting in this way..

    These are not US propaganda outlets.

    You need to rethink the sources you are using.

  26. sohar@1572

    “NSW Libs are in a position not to need BOF’s seat. I guess they can get rid of him. It’s the smart thing to do.”

    How do they get rid of him he doesn’t want to go? Expel him from parliament? Get him knocked off?

    Even worse.

    As a display of their contempt of him, as distinct from he resigned – when he was an ‘honourable man’ etc etc, according to the article written by murdoch’s employees he –

    [ will “hang around like a bad smell” ]

    Truth is, with friends like that he is better out of it.

    After all murdoch has also passed judgement – via the usual channels.

  27. Fibre ready is marketing crap. any router built in the last 10 years is “fibre ready”. the ethernet protocol has not changed that much, and 100M is about 10 yers old.

  28. Oh and where are the Greens again?

    I though they wanted more Transparency from this Government, wasn’t that the deal with Coalition Party to remove Debt Limit?

  29. If everybody is made to contribute by the same percentage increase on their earnings, I’ll support raising taxes to bring the budget back to surplus 😎

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *