BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. [1447…poroti
    1450…dave]

    He’s also an apostle of the past – a reactionary . I don’t think he has ever publicly evoked a convincing “vision” of the future. Since he looks only to the past – at home in the comforts of revisionist nostalgia and reverie – it’s impossible for him to imagine the future, still less to embrace it.

  2. “We all have to make sacrifices,” says Joe. Surely the best spot for a photo opportunity would be at his desk working hard. Silks and sporting prints aren’t a good look in the circs.

    Thinks … they tried that with Tone and Joe gazing thoughtfully at a “budget” – looked very artificial.

  3. [Ricky Muir Motorist making a splash in Fairfax press tomorrow.

    Surely there is nothing dodgy about Ricky?]

    He will be pressured by the media on every vote in the Senate. Dishing up dirt will help him hide under Clives wing. If Fairfax are kite flying they need an arse kicking.

  4. Mad Cyril:

    Thanks. Just the image I didn’t need: a partly dressed Hockey partly dressed spread across the hood of a hot HZ!

    😮

  5. Nasty buggers.

    [Poisoning by Amanita phalloides (“deathcap”) mushrooms in the Australian Capital Territory (1988-1998)

    There are four clinical phases of poisoning: an initial asymptomatic latent phase, a gastrointestinal phase characterised by watery diarrhoea, a honeymoon period when symptoms temporarily resolve, and a final hepatic phase characterised by hepatic and renal failure…………….A. phalloides is a mycorrhizal fungus (ie, it grows in a symbiotic association with the roots of trees, primarily oak trees). ]

    https://www.mja.com.au/journal/1999/171/5/poisoning-amanita-phalloides-deathcap-mushrooms-australian-capital-territory

  6. “@CarltonFC: YEEEEESSS!!! CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?! Menzel goals and we’re up by six points with 2:30 to play. HOLD ON, BLUES!!! #AFLBluesEagles”

  7. lizzie

    [
    “We all have to make sacrifices,” says Joe]
    Usual Tory crap. Cameron had “We’re all in this together.” . Then come on down tax cuts for millionaires and austerity for the rest.

  8. “@AFL: FT: @CarltonFC 14.8 (92) d @WestCoastEagles 12.17 (89)! Blues hold on! Eagles kicked three behinds in last two minutes! #AFLBluesEagles”

    Finally a win 🙂

  9. Uncle Tom Warren laying the groundwork for budget cuts.

    [The head of the Prime Minister’s Indigenous Advisory Council, Warren Mundine, has warned his fellow councillors to be prepared to be among the most hated people in Australia after next month’s federal budget.

    Mr Mundine has told the ABC he expects there will be cuts to Indigenous funding in the budget as the number of program areas is reduced from about 150 to five as part of a “realignment” of spending.]

  10. [
    Or perhaps you were thinking Budget: beer, cigs up!
    ]

    confessions

    I don’t think the Spin Doctors will give that one the green light. lol

    Maybe Hockey should present the budget with a can of VB in one hand and a cigarette in the other!

  11. Ruawake and Bemused

    Thanks for your help am a bit confused now do you think the router would do it. The thing I can’t understand is th e old asus TF300T I had no trouble with internet reaching up into the bedrooms(3rd floor) but the new supposedly super dooper TF701T can’t and Asus support is useless

  12. Cows gave it the Eels big time!

    I will make a controversial post:

    I think Abbott will win again at the next election. Chris Bowen for PM in 2019 😎

    2019? We’re getting old 😯

  13. Rua

    your right about these newbie Senators, their votes may be crucial in a few big issues that matter. And they will be confronted with a wall of suits up front, and the dirt file via the back channel.

    A DD is not out of the question IMHO, maybe towards the end of Year 2 after all the plumb jobs are filled with fellow travellers.

  14. Just on routers/wifi – been reading up on the Netgear NightHawk @$259 online. Any thoughts?

    Can you get the 802.11ac better wifi through existing wifi cards in ipads/iphones?

  15. Brilliant. Apt. Timely.

    Ms Lambie says “enough is enough”.

    “If they can’t do the job, as of July 1, I will be part of holding that balance of power, and I can tell you now, those politicians up there, they’re going to stop living off the Anzac legend and start living up to it,” she said.

  16. Madcyril:

    Hockey’s made a hash of prepping the budget thus far. It’s been distracted by irrelevancies likes knights/dames, bigots and 18c, undermined ‘we vs me’ nonsense, and Abbott’s bizarre ongoing commentary about that missing plane.

    I’m relishing his NPC budget speech. We already know he doesn’t do well in these set piece environs.

  17. mari@1517

    Ruawake and Bemused

    Thanks for your help am a bit confused now do you think the router would do it. The thing I can’t understand is th e old asus TF300T I had no trouble with internet reaching up into the bedrooms(3rd floor) but the new supposedly super dooper TF701T can’t and Asus support is useless

    It sounds to me that the TF300T either has lousy Wi-Fi performance or yours is faulty. Have done a google search on that issue?

    As I said in an earlier post, a problem you have is that you don’t really know how any solution will work in your environment until you have tried it in your environment.

  18. sprocket_@1520

    Just on routers/wifi – been reading up on the Netgear NightHawk @$259 online. Any thoughts?

    Can you get the 802.11ac better wifi through existing wifi cards in ipads/iphones?

    Only if those cards or devices support 802.11ac.

    I have no direct experience of 802.11ac but from what I have read it tends to be shorter range but capable of much higher performance. I have not upgraded from an 802.11g router as there seems to be little point if my HFC cable connection delivers less than 20Mb/s.

  19. ruawake

    which is the one I linked on my 1522?

    TP-LINK TL-WDR4300 N750 DUAL BAND GIGABIT ROUTER
    TP-LINK TL-WDR4300 N750 DUAL BAND GIGABIT ROUTER
    TP-LINK’s TL-WDR4300 is a performance optimized simultaneous dual band wireless router combining the blazing fast speeds of 450Mbps using the crystal clear 5GHz band and 300Mbps using the traditional 2.4GHz band. With simultaneous dual band, users have 750Mbps of total bandwidth to power numerous bandwidth intensive applications at the same time around a large home or office setting, where simple tasks such as e-mail or web browsing can be handled by the 2.4GHz band at 300Mbps and more latency sensitive tasks such as online gaming or HD video streaming can be processed over the 5GHz band at 450Mbps, at the same time.

    Yes?

  20. guytaur@1529

    Anyone looking to get a new Modem/router should look at something like this. Handles Fibre as well so if and when you get that no need to change.

    http://www.internode.on.net/products/fritzbox/

    What does ‘Handles Fibre’ mean? NBN fibre will terminate at a box where you will connect it to any existing cable your home or office is wired with.

    No need for the router to handle fibre directly unless you are going to rewire your premises with fibre. It would be nice but I don’t think many will do it.

  21. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/25/obama-plays-with-fire-in-ukraine/

    The real dangers of a major war are outlined here when a US academic head of a US foundations looks at Obama’s threatening strategy,linked with the udsual US demonization of a leader who opposes the Empire

    Remember when Saddamn had “weapons of mass desruction “?

    He asks how many US parents want to see their son hbe the forst to die in the Ukraine …and for what far right reggime in Kiev

  22. Edwina StJohn

    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    Because women are chattels aa 1468 ?

    That’s the way Abbott treats them. The way he leers at them is disgusting.

  23. I run a BiPAC 7800DXL.

    Handles both FTTN and FTTP, as well as traditional ADSL/ADSL2+.

    I decided to get this because I knew that Coalition Party will turn NBN into Malcolm’s Mess.

  24. Ruawake Bemused and anyone else interested

    So for $170 delivered I can get a Netgate N750 router and a WN3500RP wifi extender with the 2.4 5 gb

    What do you think????? Surely that will last me for years.

    Will never get NBN where I live in 50 kms to north which my friends keep rubbing into me who live there

  25. Bemused Comrade #1491

    I agree with you about ABC RN.

    Whilst on many occasions I’d like to jump down the line and inject FKelly with a “how to ask a decent question” medicine, the range and diversity of interviewees is very good indeed ….. many of them you won’t hear anywhere else.

    For example I often report here on early morning RN interviews and find that the issue at hand is not included on PB, in BK’s excellent links or by anyone else.

    And as a composite, regulars MGrattan and PBonjiorno have most opinion perspectives covered.

  26. confessions@1523

    Madcyril:

    Hockey’s made a hash of prepping the budget thus far. It’s been distracted by irrelevancies likes knights/dames, bigots and 18c, undermined ‘we vs me’ nonsense, and Abbott’s bizarre ongoing commentary about that missing plane.

    I’m relishing his NPC budget speech. We already know he doesn’t do well in these set piece environs.

    It really goes a lot further IMO.

    He appears to be going to say to the many voters who put the tories into power that their lives are not only going to get worse – its going to get increasingly worse for many years to come – even though the tories said/ promised the opposite.

    Cuts in this years budget and more cuts as far as you can see, services chopped, tax increased and broadened.

    For many in the thirties, he is saying work another 40 years whether you like it or not and even if you are in no physical condition to do so – oh and vote us back in.

    I think the key speech will be the budget reply.

    Shorten looks like having an embarrassment of ammo to fire back at the tories, eg along the lines of the article today in the Saturday Paper –

    [ In backrooms, they are calling it the “betrayal moment”. Everything in the federal Labor Party’s parliamentary strategy is geared towards it: the moment voters realise the government they have is not the one they thought they were electing last September. The “betrayal moment” is the centerpiece of Bill Shorten’s game plan.

    “We’re determined to make sure the government keeps its promises,” Shorten said in an interview with The Saturday Paper. “And if they don’t keep their promises, or if they have twisted priorities, we’ll chase them.” ]

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/26/inside-bill-shortens-party-war-room/1398434400#.U1uNjKJpep2

  27. A couple of days, while walking the Jack Russell, I chanced upon a woman who was collecting fungi for food.

    We had a chat and she explained to me how important it was to know which ones to eat. I proudly explained that I had a couple of pretty red mushrooms in the fridge with nice white spots on them and that was looking forward to having mushrooms on toast.

    Her eyes went very large and very round indeed.

  28. I explained that I was jesting.

    There were deathcaps nearby. In fact they were about 20m from a childcare centre which is shaded by the same Pinus radiata plantation which is providing nutrients for the pretty ones.

    Must remind the staff on Monday to have a look around before they let the kids out to play.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *