BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. AussieAchmed

    Tones was inspired by our Emperor Barnett. It must have taken at least a day after the election before Colin starting breaking election promises.

  2. [Darren L:

    I stopped listening to RN Breakfast some years ago because to me it was simply an audio version of the Australian. Not worth it.]

    If Abbott was looking to “stop the waste”, he could start with that program. The market is already catered for with content like that which Kelly’s RN Breakfast produces, as you say (cf. the Australian), so why double up and waste precious ABC funds?

    End the duplication!

  3. And a followup – I do want to blame the media.

    But the media has always been crap.

    Maybe there was a mini golden age of journalism in the latter half of the 20th century or something, but newspapers have been vile travesties in the past so being partisan and distorting is nothing new.

    So if the media hasn’t actually gotten worse (as bad as it may be), it really has to be the interaction between the public and politicians in some sort of negative feedback loop that is to blame. The media can distort the situation and present it out of context, but the public wouldn’t buy it if they weren’t looking for it.

    The public are increasingly willing to believe the worst of politicians. Politicians scramble to prevent themselves looking bad by avoiding answering questions or using PR techniques to try to avoid being able to be held to anything while still conveying some loose feelgood take-home message. The public get increasingly unhappy with the spin and poor communication from politicians and seize on more and more minor political indiscretions causing the pollies to retreat further from direct communication.

    If we, the public, collectively valued plain speaking (as everyone says they do) then we would reward politicians who do so even if by speaking plainly they leave themselves open to gotchas and scare campaigns etc.

    We don’t appear to do so. Anti-politicians get short-lived surges on populist themes. Actual politicians seem to only be able to win by tearing their opponents down without making too many mis-steps themselves.

  4. [
    THE front page of The Australian newspaper on Thursday made Liberal spin-doctors cringe. The main headline — “Hockey’s Budget warning: we all have to contribute”— was what they wanted. But the big colour photograph underneath jarred.
    ]

    I’m constantly amazed at what these so called spin doctors spend their day’s thinking about. I mean, seriously, a photo of Hockey sitting in nice surrounds is causing them to cringe.

    What was Joe Hockey supposed to do, have his photo taken on a building site digging a hole? He’s a Liberal politician and the Treasurer, I’d expect he spends his days in joints like the one that photo was taken in.

    Besides, who the hell reads The Australian? Political insiders and journo’s aside, I’d say barely anyone else in the country would have noticed that photo if it hadn’t have made an appearance in Oakes column.

  5. [Thanks Bemused that is how I understand it too, my tech grandsons just emailed me my tablet is 5gh but the router is only 2.4]

    So buy the Netgear 5g and 2.4g router. I have one its bullet proof, you probably doný need a range extender.

    I can connect to my home network (Netgear 5g 2.4g) 200 meters away in the park two houses away.

  6. jackol

    People don’t trust politicians because they know power corrupts.

    As for the media look at the trust index. Journalists used to be high. Now they have become almost pr type scribes it shows

  7. Someone here a little while ago posted two links

    Comparing how Gillard’s trip to china was reported on versus abbotts trip to china.

    Does anyone have those links again?

  8. poroti

    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Tones was inspired by our Emperor Barnett. It must have taken at least a day after the election before Colin starting breaking election promises.

    Liberal DNA

  9. [Besides, who the hell reads The Australian? Political insiders and journo’s aside, I’d say barely anyone else in the country would have noticed that photo if it hadn’t have made an appearance in Oakes column.]

    Precisely my point. Too much emphasis is given to the Australian by our political insiders.

  10. dave

    I had assumed that Julia, with her broad accent and inexperience in foreign affairs, would look out of place, but she seemed to strike just the right friendly Aussie note with the other leaders. She did much better than Howard or Abbott. I suspect she actually listened to her department advisors.

  11. [Besides, who the hell reads The Australian? Political insiders and journo’s aside, I’d say barely anyone else in the country would have noticed that photo if it hadn’t have made an appearance in Oakes column.]

    See earlier discussion.

    Their ABC used to religiously reproduce the front pages of the Murdoch press each morning, including and especially, the Australian on its “news” programs. I assume they still do, but I switched off some years ago.

    In summary, I would not recommend Labor-supporters taking any solace in the Australian‘s minuscule circulation, given its content is routinely reproduced by their ABC and then requoted in other media, which have a much broader reach.

  12. [
    He was at home, I think. Or one of his homes.
    ]

    He should have taken down the horsey pictures and stuck an AC-DC poster on the wall. He could have also left a few empty VB cans lying around. The spin doctors would have loved that.

  13. mari@1442

    Bemused

    just had a look at the download app seems to be forNetworking products company Netgear has announced the availability of two new WiFi range extenders. Netgear AC750 WiFi Range Extender (EX6100) and AC1200 High Power WiFi Range Extender (EX6200) power WiFi access for the new mobile devices demanding WiFi throughout the home.

    Would it also be for the 3500 extender? Don’t want pay too much the Ex6100 I can get for just over $100

    Thanks

    I don’t have any android devices so don’t have that app.

    But if it is like one I do have, it will allow you to check out the strength of the signal from your existing router in various places. I suggest near power points you are likely to use for the extender. You should then be able to make the best choice of location for the extender.

  14. dwh

    Factcheckeing is an American. You may not like the failing being pointed out but its there.

    Necessary of course because trust in some media telling the truth is failing

  15. [Ricky Muir Motorist making a splash in Fairfax press tomorrow.

    Surely there is nothing dodgy about Ricky?]

    Perhaps he has accepted a $9.95 bottle of Jacob’s Creek from a drag car enthusiast hoping to influence emissions controls…?

    Question will be whether he wrote a thank you note!

    😉

  16. sprocket

    “grave national interest” sounds a bit serious.

    [@jonathanvswan 28m
    I have a story of grave national interest regarding motoring enthusiast Ricky Muir, appearing in the Fairfax Sunday papers tomorrow.]

  17. Darren Laver@1465

    In summary, I would not recommend Labor-supporters taking any solace in the Australian‘s minuscule circulation, given its content is routinely reproduced by their ABC and then requoted in other media, which have a much broader reach.

    Which is precisely why I think the National Rebroadcaster may as well be sold off – it has corrupted one of its prime functions, which is to inform.

  18. [Which is precisely why I think the National Rebroadcaster may as well be sold off – it has corrupted one of its prime functions, which is to inform.]

    ABC News is today a news aggregator — while Google News performs a similar service with sophisticated algorithms, ABC has graduate “journalists” combing news websites (mostly, news.com.au) and other TV (eg. Sunrise) to decide which stories to post.

  19. [Ricky Muir Motorist making a splash in Fairfax press tomorrow.]

    LOL. Draped over the hood of his hotted up HZ wearing stubbies and a singlet with cigarette dangling from his mouth?

    I’m gonna love this new Senate on sheer imagery alone! 😆

  20. guytaur – power has always corrupted. That’s been recognized since Ancient Rome.

    (And the media has been just as dodgy since Ancient Roman times too!)

    The question is what are the specific dynamics at work now resulting in what amounts to the failure of our politics.

    The interwebz, social media are having a significant effect – that would be seeing the sausage being made effect I think.

    Our collective wealth and the current trend to focus solely on constantly accumulating greater wealth ahead of all other priorities probably has something to do with it.

    The rise of marketing techniques in all walks of life, and them being seen as the answer in politics when I think they are a significant part of the problem since fairly fundamentally marketing is about not communicating directly, it’s about leveraging emotions to get people to “buy” and otherwise ignore rational thinking, and that just leaves the consumers (voters in the case of politics) feeling dissatisfied.

  21. [He should have taken down the horsey pictures and stuck an AC-DC poster on the wall. He could have also left a few empty VB cans lying around.]

    Cue my earlier image of Ricky Muir. 😀

  22. I truly do not understand the attitudes regarding the ABC on here.

    I don’t watch anything on tele except the ABC and SBS and get all the information I want via 702 as well.

  23. mari@1442

    Bemused

    just had a look at the download app seems to be forNetworking products company Netgear has announced the availability of two new WiFi range extenders. Netgear AC750 WiFi Range Extender (EX6100) and AC1200 High Power WiFi Range Extender (EX6200) power WiFi access for the new mobile devices demanding WiFi throughout the home.

    Would it also be for the 3500 extender? Don’t want pay too much the Ex6100 I can get for just over $100

    Thanks

    The EX6100 supports the 802.11ac standard and the 3500 seems not to.

    Doesn’t matter for now with your old router, but with the future in mind and a new router, it is probably best to get 6200 for the sake of what, an extra $20?

  24. [Would Woolies sell these type of mushrooms?]

    Easter is prime blue meanie season around Canberra, trips to Braidwood and Araluen searching for toads was an easter psilocybin gourmet.

  25. [Maybe there was a mini golden age of journalism in the latter half of the 20th century or something]

    It was very mini – late June 1987 to be precise. It was when the Truth was not afraid to tell the truth about Billy Sneddon’s demise.

  26. confessions@1443

    Darren L:

    I stopped listening to RN Breakfast some years ago because to me it was simply an audio version of the Australian. Not worth it.

    A massive overstatement. It draws on many sources, local and overseas.

    If you don’t like a particular item because it is tainted by News Corpse, then ignore it.

  27. lizzie

    I think she really grew into the role of International representation etc and would have made good contributions on policy, ideas etc.

    Many seemed to genuinely like her as well, eg Kiwi PM Key, Obama and many at the G20 were asking where Julia was after she got rolled.

    I think she is better off out of it all though. Its an occupation that mostly ends badly.

  28. [ACT Health has advised people displaying symptoms of stomach aches, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea …..]
    Those symptoms look like run of the mill food poisoning.

  29. davidwh

    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    He’d probably deck you AA 🙂 or the security people would.

    His security people… yeah.

    Him – no chance…..I’ve dealt with bullies like him for over 30 years….he has a “heart” the size of a pea….

  30. [These mushrooms can be harvested around oak trees in Canberra – but they are very deadly.]

    The report looks like people just have common or garden food poisoning, not the symptoms you’d associate with magic mushies.

  31. [I stopped listening to RN Breakfast some years ago ….]

    I started listening recently due to the ABC Radio App. I cannot recieve it on any radio. There was an effort to get the ABC to build a transmitter for News Radio, got killed by nimbys.

  32. rua:

    You’re better off sticking with News Radio. I listen to that nowadays or Triple J or local ABC during storm and fire season.

  33. [The report looks like people just have common or garden food poisoning, not the symptoms you’d associate with magic mushies.]

    You go out collecting toads and get a few death caps in your green garbage bag? Meanies grow out of cow turds you fools. 😆

  34. ruawake@1457

    Thanks Bemused that is how I understand it too, my tech grandsons just emailed me my tablet is 5gh but the router is only 2.4


    So buy the Netgear 5g and 2.4g router. I have one its bullet proof, you probably doný need a range extender.

    I can connect to my home network (Netgear 5g 2.4g) 200 meters away in the park two houses away.

    Good point.

    But the trouble with any solution is you don’t know if it works in your environment until you try it.

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