Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. <a href="William Bowe@1102

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body politic.

    <a href="<a href=" http:="" blogs.crikey.com.au="" pollbludger="" 2014="" 04="" 22="" morgan-52-48-to-labor-2="" ?comment_page="23/#comment-1961355"" >william="" bowe@1102

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body politic.<a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/04/22/morgan-52-48-to-labor-2/?comment_page=23/#comment-1961355&quot; >william="" bowe@1102

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body politic.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/04/22/morgan-52-48-to-labor-2/?comment_page=23/#comment-1961355“>William Bowe@1102

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body po litic.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/04/22/morgan-52-48-to-labor-2/?comment_page=23/#comment-1961355“>William Bowe@1102

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body politic.

    Please give me warning so I can grab my fireproof umbrella.

  6. ok, probably boring for most but here is some late night reading i was doing on JSF and some of the worst “criticisms” made of it lately.

    http://elementsofpower.blogspot.ca/2013/04/the-f-35-and-infamous-sustained-g-spec.html

    Not quite the aerodynamic disaster dog its made out to be.

    I reckon that probably the biggest risk left with JSF is, as mentioned up-thread, software integration. It will be late i’m sure, but i suspect in time for the Australian intro to service dates.

  8. [1099
    William Bowe

    Like a volcano waiting to erupt across the Australian body politic.]

    Much as usual, then, William. For some reason I’m thinking of Bob Carr. Perhaps it’s because he is proud to think of himself as the body politic incarnate. He is so gratified by this thought that he considered dating himself and adding an extra chapter to his current modest book, the self-published, “Bob – The Romantic Diary of a Great Stud.”

  10. Player One@1093

    It was widely reported in the press at the time and never denied. I provided a link to a very thorough investigatory report earlier.

    Try googling ‘greg anderson mental illness’.


    The infallible “Dr Google”, eh? He’s a psychiatrist as well now?

    Actually, I did read quite a few of articles on this subject. Lots of insinuations and allegations – all unsubstantiated. None of them provided any actual evidence.

    None.

    But there is lots of evidence to the contrary, including the testimony of Rosie Batty, which you seem to simply dismiss. Or perhaps not understand.

    I think we all know why you simply can’t accept this, bemused – and it says far more about your attitudes to women and domestic violence than it says about the death of poor Luke Batty.

    As kezza pointed out the other night, you still seem to be carrying some serious baggage around to do with women asserting authority. If I were you, I’d try and resolve your issues before its too late.

    But I feel I have done enough to try and help you tonight. We can take it up again tomorrow, if you like.

    You are not merely a grub, but a disgraceful grub!

    You know damn well that I abhor violence toward women and children in any form.

    For the record, Rosie Batty indicated that her ex was aggressive, abusive and violent toward her, but never her son until that dreadful event and she had believed he would never harm their son.

    I have no problem with competent women being in authority and some of the best bosses I have ever had were women.

    I have also supported and campaigned for women candidates.

    Yes, someone here has a problem, and that is you! And your problem is dealing with the truth.

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