BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. zoomster

    That is not the fault of politicians or the public. That is the fault of the media being too lazy to do analysis or too keen to fill the 30 second soundbite.

    The politicians and public will change over time as new media drives us back to the type of political journalism we saw before radio came to be.

  2. [We also ask politicians to make iron clad predictions about events which can be up to three years away.

    If they’re unable to do this, we say that they lied.

    Very few professions – indeed, very few people – would be able to meet that standard.]

    Oh yes, the politicians are not solely to blame.

    The media (more than ever) play a huge part in unrealistic expectations — in many campaigns, effectively entrapping politicians in to making statements of ruling things in or out, all in the name of avoiding “gotchas”.

    We, the voters, of course don’t help matters much, as too many of us continue to consume the appalling content that passes for “political journalism” today.

    (Though thankfully this is slowly changing as newspapers shed readership, and TV bulletins now fight over a diminishing share of viewers).

  3. Well the success of things like fact checkers show that truthfulness is irrelevant. It’s the perception of honesty and credibility that is much more critical.

  4. zoomster@1400

    We also ask politicians to make iron clad predictions about events which can be up to three years away.

    If they’re unable to do this, we say that they lied.

    Very few professions – indeed, very few people – would be able to meet that standard.

    I don’t think we hold politician’s to a higher standard than anyone else. We understand when a politician leaves “wriggle room” in their statements, or qualify their predictions.

    But the lesson of BOF is that when you are stupid enough to make absolute statements, staking your entire integrity and reputation on them (as both BOF and Abbott have done) then if you are proven to be a liar you must fall on your sword.

    The public is entitled to expect that, and to hold politicians to it – just as they would hold a financial advisor to account if they had guaranteed returns that failed to materialize. Or a salesman. Or a real-estate agent.

  5. mari@1351

    Woops sorry on screen and won’t transfer comparisonsw for me???

    NETGEAR WN3500RP N600 Dual Band Universal WiFi Range Extender
    SKU# AB48022, Model# WN3500RP

    The other one is WN3000 universal wifi range extender

    From doing the tour, it says to plug it in half way between your router and where you want to connect.

    So from that I deduce that it is picking up the wi-fi signal and re-transmitting it. So no physical connection to the router. Just needs power to operate.

  6. Laurie Oakes today

    [THE front page of The Australian newspaper on Thursday made Liberal spin-doctors cringe. The main headline — “Hockey’s Budget warning: we all have to contribute”— was what they wanted. But the big colour photograph underneath jarred.

    It showed Joe Hockey posing in front of framed prints of thoroughbred horses, surrounded by plush red-and-white-striped wingback chairs, looking like a member of the landed gentry in an expensive and exclusive club.

    Hardly the ideal image for a Treasurer to project when he is calling on all Australians to make sacrifices and warning of the need for “substantial spending restraint” in next month’s Federal Budget and for the decade after that.]

    http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/image-problem-does-not-help-joe-hockeys-budget-task/story-fni0fha6-1226896270558

  7. [Well the success of things like fact checkers show that truthfulness is irrelevant. It’s the perception of honesty and credibility that is much more critical.]

    Yes, it is more a question of truthiness these days – but maybe it always was? Did “truth” and “evidence” ever really matter?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truthyness

  8. zoid

    Factcheckers should be getting universities to do the checking who have the resources to do the job properly.

    However even then they can still get things wrong

  9. mari

    I’m sure I’ll be no help to you, but I pick up internet for my computer downstairs plugged into “ethernet”, and upstairs I get the connection by wireless, from the same gizmo.

  10. This is an innovative scam and I am not sure how many would get sucked into replying

    [Hi

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  11. Edwina,

    [Is there a politician who tells the truth ? Michael Foot in the uk, McGovern in the States and Hewson in Australia where the last ones.]

    Aha! The Mercutio Excuse of the Right again.

    Our side’s crap, so the other side has to be as well.

  12. mari
    You might also like to download the Netgear ‘Wi-Fi Analytics App’ which appears to be for Android devices.

    It should allow you to get a clear idea of where your signal is strong and where it is weak. That will assist in positioning your extender for optimum results.

  13. @guytaur/1409

    Even if they get Universities to do the fact checking, bias is still present (especially who gets to print the fact checking).

    Also if you are not an expert or at least have understanding of the policy involved then they should not fact check it.

    Seen so many problems with for example NBN.

  14. What is interesting is Hockey’s ‘we not me’ rhetoric coming after all that rorting of allowances his colleagues indulged in.

  15. [victoria:

    Lucky for Hockey nobody reads the Australian and therefore wouldn’t have seen it.]

    Unless their ABC happily reproduced its front page, like they used to do religiously on Fran Kelly’s appalling breakfast radio show or that dire TV version with “La Trioli” and that Michelle Rolandsen.

  16. confesssions

    Whilst not on the front page of the Herald Sun, It has been reproduced in this paper, and i daresay, more people will have now seen it

  17. Often I think there is bias in the reading of fact checking as much as bias in the writing. We all have our pre- conceived ideas at times.

  18. DL,

    [Unless their ABC happily reproduced its front page, like they used to do religiously on Fran Kelly’s appalling breakfast radio show or that dire TV version with “La Trioli” and that Michelle Rolandsen.]

    Yes, it’s called laundering.

  19. Twitter has been far ahead of Laurie Oakes with scathing remarks about that pic and many retweets. It’s as silly as the Julia knitting one in its own way.

  20. dwh

    Watch Rachel Maddow take apart the US style factcheckers to see why he cynical attitude to the concept.

    After all we are following a US lead with the factchecker concept

  21. Zoomster – every politician is given “grace” by the public when they first rise to the public’s attention. That is eroded over time, but does allow for forgiveness of broken promises, errors and failures (and even lies in some cases). After it is used up though that’s it; trust is gone and people stop listening. It’s almost impossible to recover politically from that situation.

    Obviously some things destroy this “grace” faster than others, and being able to successfully cast a broken promise as a lie is a surefire way of chewing it up.

    Of course there is a difference between a broken promise, an incorrect prediction and an outright lie.

    But politicians do lie sometimes, and they should be called out on it when they do.

    And I think this current government is entirely guilty of lying before the election.

    It was clear they weren’t going to be able to keep all their promises, so at least some of their promises were made knowing they couldn’t be kept and that the LNP had no intention of keeping them.

    That is lying in my book.

  22. I wonder if Naomi Robson’s Today Tonight or Ray Martin’s A Current Affair are doing the whole “pensioner forced to eat cat food” stories yet?

    Then you’ll know they’re in trouble with that particular demographic.

  23. Oh Fun and games tomorrow morning.

    “@frankellyabc: Looking forward to hosting Insiders tomorrow. @CliveFPalmer in the hot seat, @KarenMMiddleton, @andrewprobyn & Niki Savva on the couch.”

  24. B O’F is a good example.

    He lied to/misled ICAC. He then did the ‘right thing’ and resigned.

    Yet we now have endless analysis of why he resigned.

    So even when pollies obey ‘the rules’ we don’t trust them.

  25. bemused
    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 5:38 pm | PERMALINK
    mari@1351
    Woops sorry on screen and won’t transfer comparisonsw for me???
    NETGEAR WN3500RP N600 Dual Band Universal WiFi Range Extender
    SKU# AB48022, Model# WN3500RP

    The other one is WN3000 universal wifi range extender

    From doing the tour, it says to plug it in half way between your router and where you want to connect.

    So from that I deduce that it is picking up the wi-fi signal and re-transmitting it. So no physical connection to the router. Just needs power to operate.

    Thanks Bemused that is how I understand it too, my tech grandsons just emailed me my tablet is 5gh but the router is only 2.4 but as the router is getting old and likely to be next to be replaced for an extra $7 will go for the 3500 Will only cost $85 delivered to me The grandsons agree

  26. [“@frankellyabc: Looking forward to hosting Insiders tomorrow. @CliveFPalmer in the hot seat, @KarenMMiddleton, @andrewprobyn & Niki Savva on the couch.”]

    Fran Kelly is on Insiders now?

    Their ABC hasn’t changed a bit…

  27. victoria:

    It really does irk me that politics here always seems to be presented through a prism of whatever angle the Australian is running with.

  28. Jackol

    I agree with most of your post, but I don’t think politicians get much ‘grace’.

    Certainly by the time they get to be Prime Ministerial contenders there’s little if any left.

  29. [victoria:

    It really does irk me that politics here always seems to be presented through a prism of whatever angle the Australian is running with.]

    And that is in no small part led by their ABC, with the laundering role they play of Australian stories, as AA pointed out.

  30. Guytaur the concept isn’t a difficult one. You look at a claim, analyze the known facts and rate the claim. It’s not rocket science.

  31. zoomster – yes, the public does appear to be becoming increasingly intolerant of politics and politicians.

    Why? Increased exposure of the political process (we get to see how the sausage is made)? Media dysfunction? The increasing gap between the “political class” and average members of the public?

  32. [1375
    lizzie

    briefly

    I expect to be ashamed of him whenever Abbott goes abroad. His casual conversation is even more cringe-worthy than his set speeches.]

    He is a shocker….shame is the word, absolutely

  33. Edwina StJohn

    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    Again with the “girls” Ahmed. Only men can make decisions eh? the pathetic school girls that make up the Liberal front bench can’t make decision based on integrity

  34. The immature pre-school age excuse for the LIES told by Abbott and his cohorts..

    “Sir but Sir..they did it firrrssst”

    Like it justifies Abbott etc lying.

    School yard stuff…not adult..

  35. Bemused

    just had a look at the download app seems to be forNetworking products company Netgear has announced the availability of two new WiFi range extenders. Netgear AC750 WiFi Range Extender (EX6100) and AC1200 High Power WiFi Range Extender (EX6200) power WiFi access for the new mobile devices demanding WiFi throughout the home.

    Would it also be for the 3500 extender? Don’t want pay too much the Ex6100 I can get for just over $100

    Thanks

  36. Darren L:

    I stopped listening to RN Breakfast some years ago because to me it was simply an audio version of the Australian. Not worth it.

  37. [1374
    Boerwar

    I note that Merkel is being somewhat circumspect on the Ukraine. Been there, done that, I suppose.]

    Yup…heart not in it…

  38. [Guytaur the concept isn’t a difficult one. You look at a claim, analyze the known facts and rate the claim. It’s not rocket science.]

    And yet as the 2010 and 2013 election campaigns show (and the 3 years in between), it’s a concept completely alien to AUstralian media.

  39. zoomster@1400

    We also ask politicians to make iron clad predictions about events which can be up to three years away.

    this has only been 7 months!!

    with the first lies within the first 6 months….

  40. briefly

    He ticks a few boxes in this list of signs you are socially awkward.

    [6 Signs That You’re Socially Awkward

    1. Feeling nervous in social settings. The typical socially awkward person doesn’t feel comfortable in social situations. They are anxiety producing.

    This is one of the main factors that often make them behave in weird ways around other people. Nervousness leads to a creepy demeanor…..

    2. Not understanding social norms. Often when I talk with a socially awkward person, they tell me they often don’t know what’s appropriate for them to do and what’s not in a social situation

    3. Often having a different impact than intended. It’s common for socially awkward people to joke about something and others to find the joke uncalled for, or to try and give a compliment, only for it to come off in a distasteful way

    4. The lack of conversation flow…..Their conversations are habitually like a rough wagon ride on a bumpy country road.

    ….]

    http://www.peopleskillsdecoded.com/socially-awkward/

  41. Guytaur the concept isn’t the problem. If there is a problem then it’s either the process or the way the result is received. Sure there is potential for bias in the process however of all the media groups I trust the ABC over any of the others. There is plenty of potential for bias in how the results are received.

    Often you have to look very close to home when looking for biased opinions.

  42. briefly@1439

    1375
    lizzie

    briefly

    I expect to be ashamed of him whenever Abbott goes abroad. His casual conversation is even more cringe-worthy than his set speeches.


    He is a shocker….shame is the word, absolutely

    People overseas have already formed their view on him as well –

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