BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. Woops sorry on screen and won’t transfer comparisonsw for me???

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  2. I just think Bolt does not want the Monkey to lose votes.

    If Abbott could comfortably get away with breaking promises, Bolt wouldn’t be fussed.

  3. Re: MH370

    Please wake me up when it is found.

    I blame our vacuous 24-hour media cycle rather than Abbott for the ridiculous situation we now find ourselves in, being given so many false leads and unconfirmed information.

    The media cannot just leave a tragedy alone.

    Imagine if it was reported simply as:

    “a plane is missing, the cause is unknown and its presumed crash landing site is also unconfirmed at this time. Once the plane or the black boxes are found, we will update you. Authorities are working across the region to locate the plane and providing support to the passengers’ families at this time.”

    But that would be all a bit boring now wouldn’t it?

    I would not last long as a news director I fear!

  4. I should add that it is killing Bolt to have to say that given he has been crapping on endlessly about cutting ABC funding and has been on about slashing budgets since Abbott got in.

  5. Dio, they had a pre-determined strategy to me-too Labor’s commitments, to create the perception they were going to do the same as Labor, just competently – as they would have it. Any time Labor tried to push the line that they would do otherwise*, they simply denied it.

    The response Abbott gave would have come naturally. He would have given a similar response to any similar question.

    * Labor should have simply pointed out the contradictions, rather than making an assumption (however well founded) about (and trying to convince voters of) the direction the Coalition would jump in resolving those contradictions post-election. The Coalition simply denied the assertions of Labor’s so-called scare campaign and got away with it because of the distrust of Labor.

  6. The Coalition are not suddenly discovering they have all these tough choices to make oh and they’re going to have to break all those promises, so sad. They made their commitments with the intent of breaking them or watering them down.

  7. [1338….daretotread]

    It is hardly less accurate to say that China, as the locus of vast, prolonged Foreign Direct Investment, is partly owned by US corporations.

    Such statements do not depict the reality, which is that the US Government is not in debt to the Government of China. The US Treasury has accepted no loans from China’s Treasury. None. Not one Yuan.

    If anything, it is China that faces the greater difficulties with its economic and financial order and which is hastening to reform as best and as fast as it can. It is the necessity for internal reform that is driving China’s engagement with its trade and investment partners and the liberalisation of both its financial system and it currency market. These things offer advantages to the US and, without any question, to other economies including Russia, the EU, Japan and this one.

    None of these developments are an impulse for conflict between the US and China. None of them. Not one. By contrast they will bring China more fully into the international economic order, at the heart of which lies the US.

    The rest of your claims are practically meaningless. In particular, the proposition that the Darwin Marine rotational deployment – an amphibious ready group (ARG) – is a threat to China’s maritime security is really just silly, as are the notions that Russian nationalism may in some way inspire war between China and the US. The reality is that Russian activism is more likely to bring the West and China closer together, as it has in the past.

  8. An “instinct politician”? Just says whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear and moves on.

    [The two men are expected to sit down in June for their first meeting in Washington. Abbott, the proud conservative, pugilist and instinct politician; Obama, socially liberal, cerebral and courter of consensus. The talks will be remarkable, but not just for the contrasting philosophies.

    What will set this meeting apart is what’s not on the agenda. This will be the first time in more than a decade that an Australian prime minister and a US president have spoken in depth without the backdrop of a common war. For the last, you need to go all the way back to September 10, 2001, when John Howard met with George W. Bush.

    No Afghanistan, no Iraq. That leaves a blank page for the leaders to fill with whatever they judge to be important, rather than the legacy of their predecessors.

    So what will it be? Climate change isn’t going to top Abbott’s list, nor Obama’s, unless he revels in banging his head on a brick wall. The other themes that delivered Abbott victory in the election don’t seem to resonate. His line that Australia is now ”open for business” would seem quaintly parochial in Washington, given the two countries already have a trade deal and obstacles to investment are few.

    So Abbott has a real chance to spell out in some detail over the coming weeks what he’d like to achieve, where he aims to take the relationship, and get people talking about the issues he wants discussed. Australia can seize the initiative because the US, with all its preoccupations around the globe, will not.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/blank-page-leaves-pm-free-to-work-on-us-lines-20140425-zqz6f.html#ixzz2zyCfbk2Y

  9. [A US academic looks at the way the western corporations want to plunder the Ukraine in the name of debt repayment]

    Re: Ukraine

    European integration has delivered unprecedented peace and prosperity to those former Eastern-bloc countries who choose it – from Budapest to Tallinn — from Riga to Prague.

    The Russian-model (both pre- and post-USSR) is an unmitigated failure of misery for the masses and power and wealth for the elite.

    Ukraine and Belarus are economic and social basket-cases because of the Russian model not because of Europe.

    It is a shame their citizens will never be able to choose which path they’d prefer.

    One only needs to compare Poland to Ukraine to see the difference in outcomes from 1991 to today…

  10. Libs are always critical of the stimulus program ignoring some of the critical the facts;

    Rudd government guaranteed Australian bank deposits and launched a $10.4 billion stimulus package. A second, $42 billion stimulus package followed in February 2009 including $900 cash payments, a school building program and a home insulation scheme. Unemployment peaked at a lower-than-expected 5.8% and, unlike every other advanced Western economy, Australia avoided recession.

  11. [1363
    lizzie

    An “instinct politician”? Just says whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear and moves on.

    The two men are expected to sit down in June for their first meeting in Washington. Abbott, the proud conservative, pugilist and instinct politician; Obama, socially liberal, cerebral and courter of consensus. The talks will be remarkable, but not just for the contrasting philosophies.]

    There will be nothing remarkable going on at these talks. It’s actually hard to believe anything of substance will pass between these two that would also be good our economic or strategic sovereignty. Most likely The Fool will, yet again, make a spectacle of sucking up in public.

  12. [1324
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, April 26, 2014 at 2:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Technically Abbott can make changes to pensions as long as they only kick in after the next election. I gather increasing the pension age wouldn’t take place in the next three years.
    ]

    Abbott’s famous NoCuts Billboard, with his signature embossed, and numerous photos of him standing in front says “….. Under any government I lead…”

    Assuming he is still Liberal leader and PM after the next election, his pledge standards.

    However, unlike Barry O’Farrell, he didn’t underline ANY.

  13. Cancer, metastasised:

    A desultory, far northern-arced Autumn sun
    struggles through ragged clouds
    shines briefly
    illuminates a shadowed landscape
    drained of colour and of warmth
    and of a friend.

    Vale, mate.

  14. This is low level of honesty and integrity of the man known as Eleventy.

    Mr Hockey declared the directorship of Steel Harbour Pty Ltd held by his wife, Melissa Babbage, in May last year among a series of “new positions” under spouse declaration rules.

    But business records show Ms Babbage was appointed to the role in 1998.

    Pecuniary interest register declarations are supposed to be made within a month.

  15. briefly

    I expect to be ashamed of him whenever Abbott goes abroad. His casual conversation is even more cringe-worthy than his set speeches.

  16. Diogenes@1347

    DN

    For whatever reason, Abbott was prepared to say or do absolutely anything in the last week.

    Personally I think he panicked at the thought he might lose.

    Just imagine what the fool would do in a real crisis!

  17. mari@1343

    http://www.netgear.com.au/compare.aspx

    ok YOU Tech Guys /Girls eg Bemused etc I have to get an extender down to these two Have an AsusPF701T tablet(android) can get either on line but think I will go for the 3500 one seems much better and can get it online from Sydney for $85(promo) delivered to me only $7 more than the 3000 Have tried everything but have been told by Asus will need an extender, any input appreciated.

    Look as as though only have to plug it into a power point on say second floor and hit the 2 switches on the modem (router) and extender and will work or am I being hopeful? The modem on bottom floor and I want it in the bedrooms on third floor, like my old tablet could do without an extender

    That link is not to any specific device.

    What is the specific extender you are looking at? I don’t see a ‘3500’ extender.

  18. Is there a politician who tells the truth ? Michael Foot in the uk, McGovern in the States and Hewson in Australia where the last ones.

  19. The difference is some are brilliant liars like Bill Clinton and say Bob Carr and others are woeful and get caught for their porkies like blessed Gillardine of memory.

  20. [I note that Merkel is being somewhat circumspect on the Ukraine. Been there, done that, I suppose.]

    Well yes, former East Germans are little more familiar with the Moscow-regime whose modus operandi has changed little over centuries regardless of the branding at the time (“Empire” vs. “Soviet” vs. “New Russia” etc).

    Very few look to the Russians with much fondness given their experiences under the puppet-regime in East Berlin, and certainly not through the rose-coloured glasses that Deblonay and a few other lunar-left posters here might do.

  21. Debionay

    No US companies have plans to plunder the Ukraine. To do that the US would have to first invade the Ukraine.

    Do try and have some perspecitive

  22. [Is there a politician who tells the truth ? Michael Foot in the uk, McGovern in the States and Hewson in Australia where the last ones.]

    Walter Mondale during the ’84 campaign? 😉

  23. mari@1351

    Woops sorry on screen and won’t transfer comparisonsw for me???

    NETGEAR WN3500RP N600 Dual Band Universal WiFi Range Extender
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    Well what you originally said is what the description says so you should be able to rely on that.

    Have you done the ‘Extend your range tour’? That should explain it for you.

  24. If an ordinary worker get caught telling porkies, no doubt they get the sack.

    But no, we allow Politicians to continue to tell porkies every single day.

  25. Mondale – where’s the beef ? Maybe I guess he did promise to increase taxation during the 84 campaign. Reagan didn’t and then focused on ‘ revenue enhancement’.

  26. This was meant to be a Government of “adults”, not a bunch of pathetic little school girls lead by an immature bully behaving like he is still hanging around behind the girls toilets

  27. [Mondale – where’s the beef ? Maybe I guess he did promise to increase taxation during the 84 campaign. Reagan didn’t and then focused on ‘ revenue enhancement’.]

    From memory, only Minnesota and DC in the end were brave enough to send presidential electors to vote for Mondale/Ferraro, the 49 other delegations were exclusively Reagan/Bush electors.

    Sadly, not even close in the end.

  28. Yes correct DL. There is a strain of academic style prissiness in the us democrats , Mondale, Dukakis that can’t fight for what it believes in.

  29. We also ask politicians to make iron clad predictions about events which can be up to three years away.

    If they’re unable to do this, we say that they lied.

    Very few professions – indeed, very few people – would be able to meet that standard.

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