BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

  1. [There are a handful of PBs who regularly suggest selling off the ABC because there are a couple of ABC reporters/presenters who regularly say things which suggest a Liberal bias.

    Completely ignore most of the other programs which ABC provide – Science Show, Catalyst, Health Report, Checkout etc.

    Not very strategic in my view when clearly a big majority of Australians support a quality ABC.]

    The entire ABC is not rotten, but large sections of its news and current affairs are now spread too thin – and quality has deteriorated, resulting in too many programs, too few stories.

    This has also resulted in too much content and editorial direction being lifted from News Ltd and other commercial media.

    Why do the producers of ABC News Breakfast have Sunrise and Today visible in their control rooms? Why should a serious national broadcaster concern itself with whether Sunrise has a cash cow or not? Why does a serious national broadcast invest in an expensive jumbotron screen for a news backdrop, rather investing the money into intelligent and trained journalists?

    Do programs like RN Breakfast, the 24 hour channel (constantly beset with technical difficulties for anyone’s presser except Abbott’s) or Qanda really add any value to the national discourse? Of course not.

    These parts of the organisation should be ceased, to free up funds for other programs and improve news quality.

    I would rather one hour of decent and considered news each day, rather than 24/7 of talking head nonsense sapping resources from real news gathering.

    Sell off 24? Maybe not – but at least direct the funds elsewhere.

  2. guytaur@1586

    bemused

    No you are big noting yourself. There are people out there who do not know the difference and to whom the term Fibre ready is something they need to know,

    As you conceded its not empty marketing crap as getting the wrong modem or router or combo could mean not FIbre Ready.

    Stop bullshitting.
    I conceded nothing of the sort and stand by my statement that it is meaningless marketing crap.
    ANY router is NBN ready if it accepts RJ45 input, which they do.

  3. Centre@1600

    If everybody is made to contribute by the same percentage increase on their earnings, I’ll support raising taxes to bring the budget back to surplus

    That would give the game away and cry bullshit on the so called budget emergency as well.

    It would also get the tories thrown out on their lying arses.

  4. bemused

    Non Tech people understand Fibre Ready. Much more than port rj45

    So no its not marketing crap. Its plain English for people to understand

  5. Any router for sale today is fibre ready. “fibre ready” is marketing crap. It is not possible to buy router that is not “Fibre Ready”.

  6. Roger Miller

    You have obviosly not heard of a second hand market. Also A car that has a 4 cylinder engine or a 6 or whatever says so no matter how long its been available.

  7. Darren 1601 – criticising ABC deficiencies as you highlight is spot on. Just using a Liberal free market throwaway about selling off ABC is not strategic.

    I’m all for journalists being told to keep their opinions to themselves, with stopping programs like the Drum on 24 and some other segments which are mostly journo types swapping gossip, stopping financial jounos/commentators assuming that the share market or $A going up is automatically good news etc.

    But I would also like to see a Friends of the ABC type approach to improving things. What ever happened to FOABC.

  8. Roger Miller

    For the average non tech person Fibre Ready is important information. They also do not have the tech capabilities to make your 10 base T router work.

    So its not marketing crap. Except to techies who have detailed knowledge.

  9. [But I would also like to see a Friends of the ABC type approach to improving things. What ever happened to FOABC.]

    They were asleep at the wheel during the Rudd/Gillard years when the ABC was at its worst in terms of news and political coverage.

    For example, we did not hear a peep out of them when the outrageously crass and sexist “At Home with Julia” was commissioned.

    With friends like that, the ABC does not need enemies!

  10. Centre you must try to understand …diffuicult thouyght that be for you…that our Parliementary system worls in a fairly obvious patternm

    The BudGET is delivered by the Tresurer….  right
    The Reply always comes for the Oppostion … rightg

    That’s the system in the HoReps minor parties NEVER lead the reply debate

    I hope that help you AND YOU STOP MAKING SILLY REMARKS ABOUT THE GREENS

  11. Wakefield

    I now know you must be a LOON.

    The only time when it is bad news if the stock market goes up is when you have either sold or are not invested.

  12. [ For example, we did not hear a peep out of them when the outrageously crass and sexist “At Home with Julia” was commissioned.

    With friends like that, the ABC does not need enemies!]

    The ABC have bought their ticket and now all they need to do is bend over and take what is coming.

    Where were the so called “friends of the ABC” when they cowered every time the tories shouted at them and the ABC slunk away like good little doggies with tails between legs.

    The ABC have been becoming more and more like commercial stations and then wonder why their existence is questioned.

    I see no reason to be a friend of the ABC – they got themselves into their current position and have to this day still failed to call out the utter crap of tory incoming fire at them.

    Time for the ABC to stand up and be counted themselves.

  13. deblonay

    What’s to stop the Greens making a formal response, say at the NCP, to the budget announced by the government.

    What a hoot 😆

  14. [For example, we did not hear a peep out of them when the outrageously crass and sexist “At Home with Julia” was commissioned.]

    I haven’t heard a peep out of FOABC since the Howard govt. Do the buggers even exist anymore?

  15. Centre – the share market bounces around for a range of reasons. Most of the commentary about such movement is pretty shallow.

    ABC business journos reporting – bad day for the stockmarket/good day for the stockmarket based on minor changes is a waste of time compared with just reporting the facts. Same as “profit taking” as the usual explanation for a stockmarket fall after a few days of rises. Mindless.

  16. [I’d have to agree most of “At home with Julia” was pretty crass. Well below a standard expected of ABC.]

    Of any self respecting broadcaster. We are all out of them.

  17. Before I stagger off to bed exhausted, re the routers etc I have found the Netgear d6300 ADSL+ MOdem/gigabit Router/dual band wireless -AC 1600 with free delivery for $199.

    My twitter follower assures me no need for as extender , he had a large house and no problem even though I have a windows laptop and android tablet and telstra as my provider.

    So you agree anyone?

    My thanks for advice and help tonight

    BTW found this think it may have been posted but wouldn’t it be wonderful if #icac caught some big fish when this guy appears 😀

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/25/liberal-fundraiser-links-to-pm-and-mike-baird-icac

  18. Many of the negative comments about the ABC assume that it should pursue an agenda of criticising politicians who are wrong. ABC as a public funded body should be reporting accurately on what is going on and who says what – we then make up our mind/read between the lines to decide what should be done.

    Actually we also need some media outlets that campaign strongly for social and community benefit. And we need to put our $ in to support progressive media.

  19. [Have the Greens ever delivered a budget reply?]
    The Greens Party always deliver a budget reply speech.

    Last year’s, 16 May 2013, Christine Milne: http://greensmps.org.au/2013-budget-reply-speech

    [The budget is the most value-laden of any document tabled in the parliament. It reflects the priorities for the nation and the future. The Treasurer said as much at the beginning of his budget speech on Tuesday. If you want to know what people and governments value, then follow how they raise and spend their money.

    The Labor government had the opportunity with this budget to manage the economy in a way which would care for people and protect our environment. That would have been smart and fair. Instead, we got $2.3 billion of university cuts, a billion taken from clean energy and the environment, and continued punishment for single parents and the unemployed. I do not think they will take much comfort from a 10-year road map with a shelf life, if the polls are right, of only a few months.

    And Tony Abbott will be worse, if his speech tonight is anything to go by. That is why you need the Greens.]

  20. mari@1627

    Before I stagger off to bed exhausted, re the routers etc I have found the Netgear d6300 ADSL+ MOdem/gigabit Router/dual band wireless -AC 1600 with free delivery for $199.

    My twitter follower assures me no need for as extender , he had a large house and no problem even though I have a windows laptop and android tablet and telstra as my provider.

    So you agree anyone?

    Your problems are confined to one tablet. Doesn’t that tell you something?

  21. [WORKERS will be forced to dig into their own pockets to pay off the country’s debt and families could face losing benefits as the Abbott government struggles to reduce the nation’s deficit.

    Treasurer Joe Hockey and Prime Minister Tony Abbott are preparing to risk a backlash from voters by introducing short-term hikes to taxes, spending cuts and the tightening of means tests for family benefits.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/workers-set-to-be-hit-by-a-debt-tax-and-families-could-lose-benefits-as-the-abbott-government-struggles-to-reduce-the-nations-deficit/story-fnii5s3y-1226896802364

  22. Looks like Peter Costello may well have been in the hammock, though he is denying it.

    Even so, is this what we expect of our Future Fund?

    [FORMER treasurer Peter Costello’s Future Fund spent $8000 of taxpayers’ money on a Christmas party at a venue called La Di Da that offers burlesque evenings; but it insists there were “absolutely not’’ any strippers.

    A catalogue of extraordinary spending at the fund reveals the end-of-year bacchanalia was small change compared to the $8 million in cash bonuses last year to some of the organisation’s 92 staff.

    There were also 88 credit cards issued for 92 staff with spending limits of between $2000 and $15,000.

    Mr Costello, Australia’s longest-serving treasurer, established the sovereign wealth fund in 2006 and was appointed as chairman by Joe Hockey in February.

    No other candidates were considered for the $198,000-a-year part-time job. According to documents tabled in Parliament, a second Christmas party was then organised for the fund’s seven board members and 75 staff at an extra catering cost of $4000.

    Since Tony Abbott was elected the Future Fund has spent nearly $5000 a day on airfares, $900,000 on ­recruitment costs and $15,500 for “human chemistry” consultancies.

    Future Fund spokesman Will Hetherton said the $8 million performance bonuses were justified and ­reflected the strong man-agement of the $107 billion in investments.

    The fund said the La Di Da Christmas Party package included “venue hire, food and drink as well as music from a DJ but there was “absolutely not” any burlesque dancing.

    La Di Da’s website boasts of all male strip ­revenues and burlesque routines and features ­dozens of photographs of a woman’s bottom clad in a G-string.]

    http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/workers-set-to-be-hit-by-a-debt-tax-and-families-could-lose-benefits-as-the-abbott-government-struggles-to-reduce-the-nations-deficit/story-fnii5s3y-1226896802364?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HeraldSunTopStories+%28Herald+Sun+%7C+Top+Stories%29

  23. Peg

    What a hoot! So the Greens wanted more for the environment than their carbon tax and over charged price on carbon?

    Do we need the Greens? If you want the country to reach record deficits and go broke…yup 😯

  24. http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/facebook-could-bring-down-the-government-says-state-parliamentary-inquiry-20140425-zqzil.html

    [The Victorian Electoral Commission could be asked to beef up its regulation of political tweets, online smear campaigns and Google advertisements as concerns mount about the impact of social media on state election outcomes.

    A state parliamentary inquiry is investigating the influence of social media on Victorian elections and to ask whether online advertising, including Google AdWords, are properly regulated.

    “The use of social media has really outstripped the law,” committee chair and Liberal MP Bernie Finn said.

    “We have a situation where people can put advertising on social media without authorisation but in a newspaper, television or on radio they would have to have authorisation. On social media it’s the wild, wild west. It’s anything goes.”

    Mr Finn did not rule out penalties for people involved in online smear campaigns and said he hoped the committee reported back to Parliament before the coming November election.

    State election laws say campaign material must be properly authorised – but they do not explicitly mention social media. They also prohibit material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote”.]

  25. Gaytaur… The Loot of the Ukr
    ___________
    Paul Craig Roberts ..former Asst Treasurer to Reagan and former Editor of W Street Journal…says the USA and the EU are” preparing to “Loot the Ukraine” as they make a deal for debt repayment on a grand scale

    This seems an answer to your critigue of my earlier post which said basicially the same thing as does Roberts,.whom I read some weeks ago
    “Loot” being the operative word,as the Ukr Govt is now virtually the US’s puppet and powerless to resist……..
    but as Roberts said it will be a very painfull experience for the ordinary Ukr people…but that how the US operates

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/06/looting-ukraine-begun/

  26. [La Di Da’s website boasts of all male strip ­revenues and burlesque routines and features ­dozens of photographs of a woman’s bottom clad in a G-string.]

    One must miss the company of Alexander.

  27. crikey whitey,

    Given one of your posts last night, you might be interested in this:

    [The City of Melbourne has flagged spending up to $155,000 on a memorial to two Aboriginal men who in 1842 were the city’s first people to be publicly executed.

    Supporters praised a recommendation that the permanent marker to Tunnerminnerwait and Maulboyheenner be built on a sliver of land at the corner of Franklin and Victoria streets.

    Close to RMIT and the City Baths, it is believed to be the actual hanging site.

    On January 20, in 1842, 5000 locals watched as the Tasmanians were hanged for the murder of two whale hunters after a six week battle with colonists in the Dandenongs and Mornington Peninsula.

    At the time they were deemed bloodthirsty outlaws, but campaigners have called for a reassessment of them as freedom fighters resisting white settlement.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-of-melbourne-plans-memorial-to-indigenous-men-executed-in-1842-20140424-zqz08.html#ixzz2zzrCtAmQ

  28. Re Malcolm Fraser calls for an end to the US alliance
    ____________________________________
    In today’s Weekend Mag(Fairfax papers) Fraser is speaking of his new book
    “Dangerous Allies” saying that our links with the US could lead us(as in 1914) into conflicts which don’t concern us

    He says we should
    >>close the Pine Gap Base
    >> stop military games with them…notably naval exercises
    >>Close their planned base at Darwin

    and avoid entanglements with the USA everywhere

  29. at least Tony Abbott can say the new “debt tax” on everyone is not a broken promise.

    unless you count “no surprises” as a promise

  30. Night Centre

    Sleep tight

    Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

  31. Gaytaur
    ____
    You need to think about the Russophobia you seem to be inbibing …and what about Counterpunch and statements of Roberts and others in the US like those in The American Conservative who oppose the Obama/Kerry policies and the neo-cons threats to Russia and quite mad statements like the cuop-leader in Kiev Yat… who says the Russians want a 3rd WW ,,,which is blatant nonsense

  32. mari@1646

    Night Centre

    Sleep tight

    Thanks Bemused re the tablet no I don’t think so as my grandsons now tell me that when they are up here they also have problems like me with their devices in the bedrooms ie ipads and tablets

    So it is not just your new tablet having problems.

    Unless a new Router puts out a stronger signal and has a more sensitive receiver, it will not solve your problem. You won’t know until you try it out unfortunately.

    Could a grandson loan you their router to test with?

  33. William,

    Regarding the state breakdowns. Firstly, how does that add up to Labor being ahead overall? Is it just Victoria?

    Second, has anyone done the stats and tried to see if there is a correlation between how state governments are going in the polls and federal polls? And is the correlation getting stronger over time?

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