Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Define the term ‘centre’?


    Do you really want to know?

    No, I mean do you really want to know?

    It’s in the smack middle of USER PAYS for everything and EQUALLY SHARED wealth.

    Or simply, between LNP and Loon I mean Green!

  2. [Been away most of the day but on listening to parts of Shorten’s speech in the car it is obvious to me that Shorten does not have what it takes to deliver a message]

    This proves he is doing the proper things. 😛

  3. Think I remember Possum saying something a very long time ago along the lines of the first sign of the Coalition getting into trouble is a sharp rise in the Greens vote.

    This appears to be happening

  4. The relevant ICAC bit. (I just love reposting it 🙂 )

    [Operation Spicer will examine whether, between April 2009 and April 2012, certain members of parliament including Christopher Hartcher, Darren Webber and Christopher Spence, along with others including Timothy Koelma and Raymond Carter, corruptly solicited, received, and concealed payments from various sources in return for certain members of parliament favouring the interests of those responsible for the payments.

    The Commission is also examining whether, between December 2010 and November 2011, certain members of parliament, including those mentioned above, and others, including Raymond Carter, solicited, received and failed to disclose political donations from companies, including prohibited donors, contrary to the Election Funding, Expenditure and Disclosures Act 1981.]

  5. ruawake@155

    Been away most of the day but on listening to parts of Shorten’s speech in the car it is obvious to me that Shorten does not have what it takes to deliver a message

    This proves he is doing the proper things.

    Shorten in my opinion is not a great orator, but then other leaders have managed with that limitation.

    The content was good and that is what matters most.

  6. Prohibition from property developers and gambling industries.

    So which property developer is constructing the second casino in Sydney site and which gambling operator won the contract?

    Just sayin’!

  7. From the it would be funny if it were not serious file.

    [AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious 1m
    Hilarious. Hunt’s new climate change green paper (released Dec 2013) says it will use the clean energy regulator (cut in Sept 2013) ]

  8. Ooo this bit may get a few headlines.

    [Further allegations include whether Eightbyfive, a business operated by Mr Koelma, and AWH, through its chief executive officer, Mr Di Girolamo, entered into an agreement whereby AWH made regular payments to Eightbyfive, purportedly for the provision of media, public relations and other services and advice, in return for which Mr Hartcher favoured the interests of AWH.]

    It gets better.

  9. Shorten in my opinion is not a great orator, but then other leaders have managed with that limitation.

    I caught some of Bill Shorten’s speech while driving this afternoon. Not bad, even if not in the same class as say, Barack Obama.

    In any case Bill Shorten is a great orator – compared to Tony Abbott. Lack of oratory skills or even the ability to construct a coherent sentence was no barrier in Abbott’s case.

  10. [141
    William Bowe

    William, are their breakdowns for WA?

    Only what the Morgan release says, i.e. 51.5-48.5 to Labor. Essential will provide me with state breakdowns to include in BludgerTrack, but not for publication.]

    Thanks William. It would be very interesting to know how the primary votes are shaking out in WA after the Senate re-run. Maybe we will get some insight into this from Newspoll….

  11. Ruawake

    The revolving door between the NSW Liberal party staffers and liquor and gambling pushers is only matched by the Feds staffers bouncing between ministers offices and NewsCorpse.

    Something smelly in all of this.

  12. [I wonder if The Australian Hotels Association are linked to the liquor industry? Gotta be a yes?]

    Of course it’s a yes. The AHA always comes out against any policy measures designed to curb liquor sales.

  13. In fact who is the orator on the Coalition side? That blustering buffoon Joe Hockey? The yapping poodle? That pompous windbag George Brandis? The mute Peter Dutton? Malcolm Turnbull at least has a bit if style.

  14. Steve777@174

    In any case Bill Shorten is a great orator – compared to Tony Abbott. Lack of oratory skills or even the ability to construct a coherent sentence was no barrier in Abbott’s case.

    Fair go mate, I set the bar a little higher than Tone.

  15. MTBW

    Do watch or read Bill’s speech in fullyl. The content was excellent.

    Looks good on 7.30. New suit that fits his shoulders well, hair smart, responding to Ferguson well.

  16. In fact it makes me wonder why MT was so set on remaining loyal to Abbott when he’s been treated like shit by his leader.

    Refused a pair to attend the funeral of someone he considered a good friend. Ridden over the top of more times than can be remembered, and made to look foolish by his leader with that silly Hollywood inspired policy announcement on broadband.

    I guess if there were more moderates in the partyroom he’d be whiteanting his leader like nobody’s business.

  17. Malcolm Turnbull and humility? I’ve never seen anyone more doused in self-regard. You only have to look at his pathetic attacks on Steven Conroy in parliament (where he thinks he’s a wit and is really a fuck-wit) to see that he’s no orator. Please point me to one speech he has made which had more substance than a paper cup

  18. confessions – Turnbull is an egomaniac who would eat s… through a straw for a bit of relevance and adulation. He’s now racing to beat Alston as the worst communications minister this country has ever had, but he thinks he’s a genius. Truly a hollow man, as you’d expect from someone who was Kerry Packer’s dogsbody.

  19. Mad Lib@184

    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 7:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Turnbull is close to the best from all sides.


    Good presentation but a complete fail on content. Mostly lies and bullshit these days.

  20. [Looks like Abbott will get the triple:
    (1) He will be able to run on the carbon tax two elections in a row
    (2) He will get to keep the direct action funds
    (3) He will get to do what he really wants about climate change: nothing at all.

    He certainly makes his own luck.[/I]]

    On the other hand, if he does all that and loses the next election he has lost everything – and he just might, the way he is going.

  21. k17:

    MT gave a speech to parliament about the generation of children abused in state and institutional care which was one of his best IMO.

  22. Davidwh – Rudd wasn’t short of self-believe. But he did have talent. What talent does Malcolm Turnbull have (other than making money?)

  23. A hundred million dollars and he spends his days polishing Tony and Rupe’s knobs and destroying the major project we will need in the 21st century. He is, without a doubt, the most pathetic member of this Govt, bar none.

  24. Turnbull is best? Since when?

    Only when Abbott is in trouble.

    He’s been tasked since been sidelined to destroy the NBN.

    And doing that nicely by giving the job to Telstra, repeating our mistakes.

  25. Nominations for the Wit Brothers are open.

    Dim Wit
    Half Wit or
    Fcuk Wit

    Nominate your favourite Liberal MP.

    I’m nominating Pyne for Half Wit
    Morrison for Fcuk Wit
    Dutton for Dim Wit

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