Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Shorten has a natural voice deficiency. His voice lacks carry, tone, timbre, depth, register and range.

    He badly needs voice training.

    He should also learn to use the microphone as a tool with a particular view to allowing mechanical amplification to offset the weakness of his voice. He would then be able to offset voice weakness by speaking softly while increasing the range of his voice.

    Abbott has learned to do the same thing with considerable effect.

    Shorten tends to frown, which, along with the way his voice works, and also the content of what he says, makes him sound a bit of a whinger.

    Main message: Shorten needs a Credlin.

  2. Turnbull is an endless disappointment.

    Behind the charisma and ability to speak well there is nothing of substance.

    I end up despising him more because I want to like him (darn those charismatic people), but he doesn’t deliver anything worthwhile to government in this country.

  3. The not-completely-hostile comments about Turnbull on this massively partisan blog, just goes to prove how magnificently he would do if actually leading the Libs.

    Be careful what you wish for…..it would be 100+ to 40ish with Turnbull vs. Shorten.

  4. Turnbull will never become leader of the coalition while 66% of Liberal supporters believe that 97% of climate scientists are wrong.

  5. [Turnbull is an egomaniac who would eat s… through a straw for a bit of relevance and adulation.]

    Yeah, he’s totally alone in parliament on that score.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m quite prepared to hang shit on his willingness to suck up the humiliation he endures allowing Abbott to break his balls over stupid shit like denying him a pair to attend Margaret Olle’s funeral. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he can deliver a speech in a non partisan way. Unlike Abbott.

  6. Turnbull may have been a good PM except that Abbott will likely destroy the Coalition’s chance to govern beyond 2017 for at least two terms.

  7. Oh yeah, and then there are MT’s views on AGW and the best way to mitigate it.

    I agree with Boerwar. If he had any semblance of dignity he’d haul his rear end to the backbench.

  8. Hockey is cutting pensions, Dutton is charging to visit Doctors. Turnbull is hobnobbing with expensive Dining on the North Shore. Great image.

  9. Meanwhile, Rundle in Crikey, has an article on the real global game changer: a slew of remarkable advances in the science and technology of renewable energy sources, solar energy in particular.

    IMHO, this stuff will ending up doing what nothing else has been able to do: kill big oil, big coal and big fracking because it will do it on price.

    Stranded assetts will abound.

    These advances will do what nothing else has been able to do: put a halt to the hitherto inexorable increase in the rate of CO2 emissions.

    These advances will come with some added benefits, IMHO. It will be far more local, suburban and regional and far less centralized mission control by Battlestar Galactica.

    Finally, there is a touch of irony. Big Oil, Big Coal and Big Gas have actively promoted an anti-science agenda to protect their interests.

    But it will be science and technology that kills them.

  10. Speaking of Turnbull, I splurged on a 55″ Sony Bravia TV today, works like a gem. Except for connecting to the internet.

    Connects to the 5G Wi-Fi without a hitch, except it times out connecting to servers due to slug internet speed. Damn you Turnbull.

  11. [205
    Everything

    The not-completely-hostile comments about Turnbull on this massively partisan blog, just goes to prove how magnificently he would do if actually leading the Libs.]

    Turnbull had the leadership taken off him after he demanded it from the hapless Nelson. He has made a complete mess of his portfolio after just a few months, much as he made a hash of the leadership. He may be charming and urbane, but PM-material he is not.

  12. So there goes 100+ years of Labor history. Apparently you dont need to be a member of a trade union to be a member of the LABOR PARTY!

    Is there anything left to believe in? When will the name be changed? The P.I.C.T strikes again!

  13. [ruawake
    ….Connects to the 5G Wi-Fi without a hitch, except it times out connecting to servers due to slug internet speed. Damn you Turnbull.]

    Promise to stop posting anti-Liberal propaganda, and I will arrange for the Liberal party to grant you internet access.

    WE WILL DECIDE WHO INTERWEBBIES, AND THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH THEY INTERWEBBIE…

    Good night all 🙂

  14. briefly

    Turnbull has made a hash of everything politically, plus if it wasn’t for others he would have been a dud at nearly everything.

  15. Boerwar@201

    Shorten has a natural voice deficiency. His voice lacks carry, tone, timbre, depth, register and range.

    He badly needs voice training.

    He should also learn to use the microphone as a tool with a particular view to allowing mechanical amplification to offset the weakness of his voice. He would then be able to offset voice weakness by speaking softly while increasing the range of his voice.

    Abbott has learned to do the same thing with considerable effect.

    Shorten tends to frown, which, along with the way his voice works, and also the content of what he says, makes him sound a bit of a whinger.

    Main message: Shorten needs a Credlin.

    Agree with your comments about speaking qualities Shorten lacks.

    But the good news is they can all be improved and it is really not all that hard.

    Yes, his COS should give him a talking to and make the necessary arrangements post haste.

  16. When Malcolm Turnbull actually had the Liberal leadership his performance was less than stellar. Kevin Rudd seemed to have his measure.

    There is no chance that Malcolm will be given another go, even if he renounces his belief in action on climate change, his republicanism and his social liberalism. He should go back to making money.

    If it turns out I’m wrong (I’ve been known to be wrong before), then apart from his belief in action on climate change, Malcolm would have no problem with the Murdoch/IPA agenda. He’ll dismantle Medicare, proceed with the privatisation of health care and education, screw the workers and protect privilege like any other potential Liberal leader, albeit with more style than Abbott, Hockey or Morriscum would do.

  17. Mad Lib@205

    The not-completely-hostile comments about Turnbull on this massively partisan blog, just goes to prove how magnificently he would do if actually leading the Libs.

    Be careful what you wish for…..it would be 100+ to 40ish with Turnbull vs. Shorten.

    Yeah, like it was when it was Turnbull vs Rudd. 👿

    Didn’t take long for Truffles lack of substance to be revealed.

  18. [ Turnbull is close to the best from all sides. ]

    Sorry David. he has been shown to be an ignorant twat who either does not know his portfolio of lies about it.

    Also, the way he has simply bent over ans smiled for whatever Abbott has wanted to do to him or have him do really makes him the bound up and castrated Gimp of the current parliament.

    He may have made some money, but as a politician, Rainman has been a serial failure.

  19. When has Abbott not been in trouble here at PB.

    Actually my views on Turnbull have been consistent the entire time I have been posting here.

    Come to think of it so have my views on Abbott 🙂

  20. I see that Abbott, Hockey and Dutton are conspiring to kill of the locals in favour of channelling people into the state-funded hospital system.

    No effin idea about public health policy whatsover.

    Freaky narrow ideology roolz.

  21. ruawake@214

    Speaking of Turnbull, I splurged on a 55″ Sony Bravia TV today, works like a gem. Except for connecting to the internet.

    Connects to the 5G Wi-Fi without a hitch, except it times out connecting to servers due to slug internet speed. Damn you Turnbull.

    What do you mean by 5G ‘Wi-Fi’?

  22. Has Dutton actually come out of his closet and declared that he is Six Dollar Man?

    Or is the gutlless spiv doing ‘mature public policy debate’ by selected leaks?

  23. [ Imacca I do understand why Labor supporters don’t like Turnbull. ]

    What i fail to understand is why Liberal supporters like him? The man is a noxious fool. Of course, of a different order than the noxious fool who currently occupies the big chair. Idiocy with a certain style rather than idiocy with brainlocked thuggishess.

    Turnbull really seems to me to be a bit like Bishop the Younger. A lawyer who really cant get their head around the fact that Parliament is not a court and they have to actually do stuff not just yak about it.

  24. It will be interesting to see whether Operation Spicer brings down Queensland’s No 1 public servant and good mate of Newman, three or more NSW Liberal parliamentarians, Baird, and several tainted NSW federal Liberals including especially, of course, Hockey and Abbott.

  25. 1) Supported Rudd until he didnt
    2) Supported Gillard until he didnt
    3) Supported the union movemement until he didnt

    Bill Shorten. Is there anyone he wouldnt sell out?

  26. I note that Morrison has been rather quiet on his Manus guards attacking prisoners on the day before the murder of one of the prisoners under Morrison’s duty of care.

  27. [ Has Abbott actually told the nation what is his free trade agreements yet? ]

    Not that i know of. They will probably wait until everyone is screaming about the budget to publish so it the nasties get lost in the noise.

  28. It is funny seeing Hockey, who ignored Labor’s struggle with the dollar at $1.10 whinging pitifully about the dollar at .94c.

    What a wuss.

  29. imacca
    I understand that Abbott, Hockey et al have agreed that politicians will nto be able to access their superannuation until they turn 70.

    After all, they have been ranting on that it is hard times and everyone, except for foreign mine owners, has to do their bit.

  30. Mundine, Abbott’s Indigenous Policy Toy Boy, is arguing that cutting funding for Indigenous programs will be good for our very own third world Indigenous people.

    Forget ‘trickle down’ and think ‘dry well’.

    Rich people have better things to do with their own money, right, Warren, Tony?

    Oh, and Tony cares. He really does.

  31. [Perhaps there are too few true Liberals around at present.]

    If there were more of MT’s own mob in his own partyroom he wouldn’t have to offer his balls up to the numpty faction like he has.

    That broad church JWH used to brag about looks like an empty shell of a long-disused building just waiting for a wrecking ball.

  32. I wonder when the various ‘departmental investigations’ into the serial cruelty to Australian animals will be made public?

    It is a bit like Indigenous people, asylum seekers, pensioners, people on disability allowance, people at public schools, really.

    Cruelty is good for the cows, asylum seekers, disabled people, the poor and Indigenous people.

    Really.

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