Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Steve777@99

    In a sense, Labor should represent those who it always has – workers. These days they are mainly white collar, many are University educated and most work outside of the traditional, highly unionised occupations. Some have retired, some are in education, some performing home duties or are carers. Some through misfortune or disability are unable to work even though they would like to.

    But they believe in a fair day’s work in whatever they do for a fair days’ pay, a fair go for all in all areas of life, the best possible start for young Australians through excellence in education. And also a helping hand for those who fall behind – because of economic restructure, disability or health crisis.

    They can’t pay lobbyists or advertising agencies to press their cause. They are not opposed to people getting wealthy through honest hard work, being smart or even being lucky. Good look to them they say. But these people don’t need subsidies, concessions or special privileges.

    As for the broader country and the wider world, they want a stable economy, fair, sensible taxation, a sensible foreign policy, fair trade abroad and at home, credible national defence and a constructive role for their country on the world stage.

    Compare that with what the conservatives want and who they support.

    Well said Steve777.

  2. @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-1) ALP 51 (+1) #auspol

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll Cutting funding to the ABC: Approve 21 Disapprove 61 #auspol

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll Raising pension age to 70: Approve 20 Disapprove 71 #auspol

  3. poroti@106

    Define the term ‘centre’ please?

    A fecking long way from where the Shoppies union leadership is ?

    guytaur used the term and then illustrated it with a number of policy positions that, although now widely accepted, originated from the left.

  4. Lizzie

    Saw a snippet this morning of an upcoming documentary on climate change with Harrison Ford, Matt Damon and a young popular woman, her name escapes me.

    Apparently it has ruffled some feathers., something about the Indonesian minister threatening to throw Ford out of the country.

  5. bemused

    I was making the point because the right has been trying to pretend Abbott is in the centre.

    Thats media commentators too.

  6. It looks like Craig (Dumbo to his mates) Kelly got set up beautifully by Senator Concetta F-V.

    Who is a big enough twit to get me outa this Croatian dilemma? , ah I know the chair guy, he is stupid enough not to do any homework.

  7. Just on membership (and not just talking about the ALP or even political parties necessarily, although they have the biggest problems) – to my mind the 2 big problems for attracting and retaining members today are:
    1) there being a value, a point, to being a member
    2) overcoming social stigma associated with being a member.

    Our political parties have struggled with the first point, and some of the reforms being talked about (democratizing preselections etc) should restore some of the “point” of being a member, and that is a positive thing.

    In the past, a significant part of the “point” of being a member was the social connections – organized events etc that formed an actual community. Many organizations have a problem with this now, partly as a result of the continually diminishing amount of spare time that most working people/families have, the escalation of the importance of positional pursuits such as home renovation, ever increasing ‘quality’ of entertaining at home, etc, leisure time that was diverted into TV and now social media/internet activities. It seems doubtful to me that a political party can viably act as a catalyst for community anymore, and I guess they aren’t really trying because of that. It still leaves a big gap in the question “why should I become a member of a political party?”

    Worse is the second point. Politics is diabolically uncool in Australia and has been for decades. People who have an interest in politics rarely mention it in polite company, let alone confessing to being a member of a party. I’m not sure entirely how this came to be – some combination of the disintegration of political parties as community focuses along with Australian apathy and a general trend to despising (justifiably) politicians as a class. I’d also throw in bad personal experiences with the Young Labor/Young Lib types. They were, generally, atrocious human beings when I went to uni 25 years ago; I doubt they have improved. The people who have no life experience but a burning desire to wield political power – particularly when political power is seen by most as a source of revulsion – tend to repel those who are more casual observers than wheeler-dealer participants.

    Because of the disintegration of their broad memberships the parties now rely on the Young Labor/Young Lib types, and that just exacerbates the social stigma to my mind. It is a bit chicken-and-egg – a return to a broader membership would limit the impact of the Young Labor/Lib types, but at the moment they are a big turn-off for a broader younger membership in my opinion.

  8. guytaur

    No surprise. If there was something the Euro catholic establishment absolutely lurved it was the fascists. Paranoia over godless commies uber alles and all that.

  9. ruawake@120

    It looks like Craig (Dumbo to his mates) Kelly got set up beautifully by Senator Concetta F-V.

    Who is a big enough twit to get me outa this Croatian dilemma? , ah I know the chair guy, he is stupid enough not to do any homework.

    Anything to do with the Croation community needs to be checked out carefully.

    ALP figures have attended a function in a building dedicated to the memory of Ante Pavlic, leader of the Ustacha fascist regime.

    I do not wish to tar all Croatians with that brush, but there is a dark element in their midst.

  10. Mike Baird’s new look cabinet is a hoot. Pru gets another promotion. And Smith gets axed to suit 2GB. (and me Pres of Right to Life should not be AG, just saying)

    Only 6 days till Spicer. 🙂

  11. Read this and weep. This is Abbott/Hunt thinking.

    [Can you put a price on the beauty of the natural world?
    . . . Those who reduce nature to a column of figures play to an agenda that ignores its inherent value – and seeks to destroy it]

    […the company that wants to build the service station wasn’t slow to see the possibilities. It is offering to replace Smithy Wood with “60,000 trees … planted on 16 hectares of local land close to the site”. Who cares whether a tree is a hunched and fissured coppiced oak, worked by people for centuries, or a sapling planted beside a slip-road with a rabbit guard around it?

    As Ronald Reagan remarked, when contemplating the destruction of California’s giant redwoods, “a tree is a tree”. Who, for that matter, would care if the old masters in the National Gallery were replaced by the prints being sold in its shop? In swapping our ancient places for generic clusters of chainstores and generic lines of saplings, the offsetters would also destroy our stories.]

  12. [Anything to do with the Croation community needs to be checked out carefully.]

    Yep you go there to support your local constituents, you do not carry a message from the PM of Australia.

    I expect Kelly will not be seeking pre-selection soon after his multiple gaffes.

  13. [From the little I’ve seen of him, Baird looks like a nice guy. Napthine seems a decent sort as well.]

    Well you can marry them, they are both dud politicians.

  14. Diogenes@129

    From the little I’ve seen of him, Baird looks like a nice guy. Napthine seems a decent sort as well.

    With the exception of Kennett, Victoria seems to have thrown up Liberal leaders who come across as reasonable and moderate.

    Baird comes across as personable, but his stance on many issues is rancid and he panders to the hard right. Typical fundy nutter.

  15. ruawake@132

    Anything to do with the Croation community needs to be checked out carefully.

    Yep you go there to support your local constituents, you do not carry a message from the PM of Australia.

    I expect Kelly will not be seeking pre-selection soon after his multiple gaffes.

    I would not attend an event in a building dedicated to the memory of a notorious fascist leader and major war criminal.

  16. [William, are their breakdowns for WA?]

    Only what the Morgan release says, i.e. 51.5-48.5 to Labor. Essential will provide me with state breakdowns to include in BludgerTrack, but not for publication.

  17. Email from Bill Shorten today.
    Today I am announcing the start of a major campaign to rebuild the Australian Labor Party and renew our sense of purpose. A campaign to create a Labor Party that’s stronger because we have more members and our members have more of a say.

    There is no question. If we want to change the government, if we want to change the country for the better, we must change too.

    The response to our first-ever Federal leadership election showed that Labor is up to the job of rebuilding. My vision for Labor is for a party that represents and reflects the Australian community – a party with 100,000 members.

    We have to make it easier to join, and we will. To rebuild the party we need a new, more open and democratic model of membership – giving our members a strong voice.

    We have to give our members a greater say, not just in the election of our leaders but in the pre-selection of our candidates too, and we will.

    We have to have greater engagement in our National Conference and ensure our National Platform reflects modern Labor values. But rebuilding our party is not just a technical job of updating our rules – it is a moral task of renewing our ideas and sense of purpose.

    Rebuilding is never painless – but it is far less painful than the alternative.

    A weaker, less relevant Labor party left trying to fight the battle of ideas with an arm tied behind our back.

    We cannot stand still and watch as Tony Abbott punishes the people we have always served. We cannot submit to the twisted priorities of this Prime Minister. We must rebuild.]

  18. iLabor cannot hope to be one of the natural parties of government if all it does is represent 18% – or even 30% – of people.

    The Nationals get around 4.5% of the vote and yet they are a Party of Government in a Coalition of minor Parties.. (And that’s about half of the of Greens votes)

  19. Been away most of the day but on listening to parts of Shorten’s speech in the car it is obvious to me that Shorten does not have what it takes to deliver a message.

  20. Bolte’s blood was worth bottling. So he could give it to the plod.</I

    Its got to be worth something.

    It's wasted where it is at the moment

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