BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  6. guytaur

    Carr is promoting his book. Just like all other pollies who have written books, the majority of people wont notice and it will be forgotten within a few weeks

  7. Re Poroti @40: it reminds me a bit about some of the things opponents to the Republic were saying in the leadup to the 1999 referendum. Lots of improbably doom and gloom and not much about the positives of our constitutional monarchy.

    I have no opinion of Scottish independence other than that they should be independent if they want to be. It looks as though some powerful interests are worried. If I were a Scot I would regard that as a reason to vote ‘yes’: if their equivalents of Gina, Rupert, the IPA and so forth are against it then it must be a good idea.

  8. victoria

    It will be remembered as people add that to the JG attitude to equal marriage and the (I think) false perception that JG’s position was for politics not true belief.

  9. How Labor won the ‘ethnic vote’ in Western Sydney:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-13/jakubowicz-politics-of-ethnicity/4954660
    [In this election, seats that were heavily Muslim stuck with the ALP. In the lead-up, the LMA had fashioned a strategy to gain support from the government.

    Gillard and Swan had been a real problem – they would not meet with nor take seriously the maturing political leaders, and Gillard’s own lifestyle was uncomfortable for them. Until the return of Rudd the LMA leadership was shaping up to repeat the 2011 intervention, throwing support behind the Coalition.]
    LMA = Lebanese Muslim Association

  12. The polling for Scottish Independence appears to indicate No vote a this stage.

    If I was the UK and Scotland voted for Indepedence i’d give it to them – lock stock and barrel – pull out all defence assets, NHS – everything. And force them to have their own currency.

  15. “@abcnews: #Breaking: The Northern Territory government has won a High Court challenge over its laws for confiscating the proceeds of crime.”

  16. guytaur

    So Turnbull’s going to spend big bucks on a worn-out copper network. This is like a woman who wears out her shoes walking around the town to save a dollar on toilet paper. Who on earth could agree that Coalition are “good with finance”…

  18. lizzie

    Yes. Senator Conroy and others have made this point during the election campaign.

    Its a good example of the media bias. All the people who know including Tech Journos were telling this. MSM didn’t

  20. [‏@MrDenmore 50s
    @MikeCarlton01 @MayneReport Also I don’t think people appreciate how much Carr is sending up himself and the whole circus.]

  22. Let Turnbull wear the public opprobrium for buying (back) Telstra’s copper network…

    Will cost a motza …but make it easier for Labor to over-build with Fibre when sanity returns to Aussie politics & the ALP resumes building our vital 21C communication infrastructure…

  24. “@sspencer_63: @latingle @MrDenmore @MikeCarlton01 agree, superb interview with @bobjcarr by @FergusonNews Great balance of the serious and absurd.”

  26. “@latikambourke: Bob Carr ‘I make no apologies for providing people with a darned good story.’ Says every cent will go to charity. @abcnews”

  28. briefly@36

    1…..Fran Barlow

    It seems to me that members of affiliated unions could get a weighted vote when votes arise for official positions or nominations, and this could be one way of underlining the significance if union membership.


    The rule is a dead letter. Unionists seldom join the ALP as individuals. The reason is simple. If they wish to be politically active, they can take part as union delegates to the ALP and exercise a greater role than if they participated as individual members.
    —–

    Hopelessly WRONG.

    You cannot be a union delegate to ALP conferences unless you are an ALP member.

  29. “@sspencer_63: Carr says his position on Israel and Jewish settlements the same as that of former Israeli PMs, just not the current right wing govt.”

  35. CC @ 62

    [The polling for Scottish Independence appears to indicate No vote a this stage.

    If I was the UK and Scotland voted for Indepedence i’d give it to them – lock stock and barrel – pull out all defence assets, NHS – everything. And force them to have their own currency.]

    Haha, it is not surprising that Tories are the same everywhere. The “No” campaign in the UK actually calls its campaign “Project Fear”.

    Yes the polls show “No” in front but its lead is being slowly wound back. The latest poll is:

    Yes: 41% (+4)
    No: 46% (+1)
    Don’t Know: 14% (-3)

    This is scaring the UK establishment no end and is remarkable when every newspaper and broadcaster (particularly the BBC) in Scotland is waging a relentless campaign against “yes”.

    The Yes supporters wage their campaign via website, word of mouth and are crowd sourcing their funds.

    Scotland subsidises rUK, particularly London. With its oil and gas and other resources Scotland will be 4,000 pounds per year better off than rUK.

    [give it to them – lock stock and barrel – pull out all defence assets, NHS – everything. And force them to have their own currency]

    Haha, again. Scotland has offered to take its share of UK’s 1.3 trillion pound debt and its share of assets which for 300 years Scottish taxes have disproportionally paid for.

    Scotland would be much better off starting debt free if UK followed CC’s sage advice.

    Scots WANT to run their own NHS and other welfare matters. It is part of the reasons for wanting independence.

    As for Defence assets. The Scots can’t wait to see the end of the Trident nuclear military base they have to support.

  37. I wonder if Carr will invoke s18.c of the RDA because he is offended at being called a Bigot (he is) and intimidated by the all-powerful Pro-Israel Lobby.

  38. swamprat @85 If things are as positive as you claim then it is a wonder there isn’t overwhelming support for the idea.

    I doubt it will be close in the end.

  40. I’m sure that Bob Carrs complaints about not getting pajamas or subtitles with his Wagner opera in first class will resonate with all working Australians.

  41. With rumours about cuts to pensions and raising the pension age to 70 – I’ m just wondering whata person is supposed to do for income between the ages of 60-70? At my current job we’re all casual, and our boss only rosters the people over 60 if there is no body younger available. So they get minimum work. Most have some sort of pension to supplement their meagre wages. However, with no pension til 70 and no access to super ( and I don’t have much of that) how is a person supposed to live after age 60?

  42. CC

    [swamprat @85 If things are as positive as you claim then it is a wonder there isn’t overwhelming support for the idea.]

    Well a lot of Scottish Labour and Lib Dem MPs, Lords and Ladies will lose their career paths and access to the massive trough in Westminster. They are a wee bit scared about that.

    I think the BBC gets 300 million pounds from Scottish licence fees per year. BBC Scotland gets a third of that.

    Over the next few months the No campaign, lead by the Red Tories (aka Labour Party) will get increasingly nasty as they get more threatened.

  43. Climate Change deniers big backers have moved on to the next stage .From denying man made climate change to accepting it BUT saying it is all good. Can’t wait to see how long before we see our local “climate change is crap” people fall into line.

    [Don’t fear climate change – rising CO2 levels and a warming planet could be beneficial, claims study

    •New report published by the Heartland Institute says human-caused global warming might not be so bad
    •Report cites more than 1,000 studies that highlight ‘benefits’………………The oil company-backed report goes on to state that agricultural production will increase as CO2 levels rise.

    It even goes on to suggest that a warming planet will reduce the amount of human deaths.

    More lives will be saved by global warming by reducing ‘cold-related deaths than those lost
    ]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2600565/Dont-fear-climate-change-rising-CO2-levels-warming-planet-beneficial-claims-study.html

  44. [78….bemused]

    Sure, to participate union delegates must also be party members. The point is that union members seldom exercise their voting rights in ALP elections and preselections in their capacity as “political delegates”. They act in their capacity as “union delegates”.

    The pathways to obtaining credentials differ in each case. “Union delegates” need to be appointed by the relevant affiliated union, whereas “political delegates” have to win internal elections. This means, inevitably, that “union delegates” owe their standing to their union executives rather than to other members of the party itself.

    Because “union delegates” are assured of majorities in the electoral college, when they act collectively they have more power than “political delegates”. This is entrenched in the rules. It follows that union members who wish to be politically active or who seek advancement inside the ALP usually choose to do so as “union delegates”.

  45. liyana – it is illegal to disciminate based on age. If your claims are true and verifibale then take him to court.

    Except in a few specific professions – there are no upper age limits to working.

  46. This is a very ordinary breach of confidence.

    [Former foreign minister Bob Carr has published private text messages between himself and Julia Gillard to reveal the “extraordinary” level of influence the pro-Israel lobby had on the former prime minister’s office.]

  47. guytaur

    Looks like all public housing in the inner city will be up for grabs now.

    The properties are far too valuable for a greedy government.

    BTW

    I am with you on Danby – completely over the top.

  48. [87
    Compact Crank

    I wonder if Carr will invoke s18.c of the RDA because he is offended at being called a Bigot (he is) and intimidated by the all-powerful Pro-Israel Lobby.]

    While Carr may have been insulted, s18.c could not apply as he has not been traduced on the basis of his race or ethnicity.

  49. swampy – if the truth is as you say then I can’t see why the Scottish would not vote for independence.

    Or, do you think the Scottish are morons?

    Or, just maybe, your claims are bunkem.

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