GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest quarterly (I think) Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland has the Liberal National Party’s lead down from 55-45 to 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the LNP (steady), 36% for Labor (up four) and 8% for the Greens (steady). Campbell Newman is down four on approval to 36% and up six on disapproval to 54%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is up two to 38% and down one to 30%. On preferred premier, Newman’s lead is down from 45-32 to 41-35. UPDATE: It’s 1136 respondents from January to March (so not all that current then). Full tables from The Australian.
This follows ReachTEL’s publication of a series of union-commissioned automated phone polls:
• A poll of 2907 respondents statewide for Working for Queenslanders conducted on the night of April 2, showing the LNP on 39.1%, Labor on 35.1%, Palmer United on 8.0% and the Greens on 7.3%. The poll also had bad personal ratings for Campbell Newman.
• For the Australian Salaried Medical Officers Federation, four electorate-level polls of around 650 respondents on the evening of March 26, each showing Labor well ahead – by 56-44 in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra, a swing of 16%; 58-42 in Ipswich West, a swing of 15%; 59-41 in Cairns, a swing of 18%; and 54-46 in Campbell Newman’s Brisbane seat of Ashgrove, a swing of 10%.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/campbell-newmans-poll-slide-puts-lnp-in-danger-zone/story-e6frgczx-1226878345971#
[Campbell Newman’s poll slide puts LNP in danger zone
Michael McKenna The Australian April 09, 2014 12:00AM
QUEENSLAND’S Liberal National Party government has lost more than 10 percentage points of support since the March 2012 election, with Campbell Newman’s once-unassailable personal popularity as Brisbane lord mayor plummeting since he became Premier.
The latest Newspoll for Queensland shows the LNP could lose its once massive majority and government, with its lead over Labor now down to 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.]
It is the January-March quarterly, 1136 polled.
William, worth making mention of this other recnt poll?
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/working-for-queenslanders-queensland-poll-2april2014
[Working for Queenslanders – Queensland state poll – 2nd April 2014
Submitted by ReachTEL on Fri, 04/04/2014 – 08:16
ReachTEL conducted a survey of 2,907 residents across Queensland on the night of 2nd April 2014. The survey was conducted for Working For Queenslanders.
South East Queensland – sample: 948
Gold & Sunshine Coast – sample: 971
Regional Queensland – sample: 988]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-would-lose-an-election-held-this-week-survey-20140403-361s2.html
[LNP would lose an election held this week: survey
April 4, 2014
Amy Remeikis
State political reporter
If an election had been held this week the LNP state government would have been voted out, a new poll has found.
ReachTEL surveyed nearly 3000 residents across Queensland on Wednesday night, asking them who they would vote for if an election was held that day and what they thought of Campbell Newman as Premier.]
Down she goes…..
Way ahead of you, Leroy.
The similarity between the Newspoll primaries and the Working For Queenslanders ReachTEL is quite striking.
I tend to treat commissioned polls like the latter with caution until a non-commissioned poll corroborates them but that’s very close as corroboration goes.
I might do an article on Queensland polling soon and come up with my own view of what 52-48ish would mean at an election. Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side and whatever the 2PP it is going to be uphill work for the ALP.
Cheers William. For those who missed it & a bit of context, the last QLD poll by anyone else was by Galaxy
http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/galaxy-poll-bikie-crackdown-could-cost-campbell-newmans-lnp-30-seats-in-queensland-parliament/story-fnii5v6w-1226822990768
[Galaxy poll: Bikie crackdown could cost Campbell Newman’s LNP 30 seats in Queensland Parliament
1 month ago February 11, 2014 1:00AM]
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/02/11/1226823/080138-cm-file-galaxy-poll-2014-02-11.pdf
Possum reckons the recent by-election and (I think) his own research indicates the pref flow may be better for the ALP than 2012 was, but we’ll see.
KB:
[ Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side ]
True, but that very one-sided election dredged up literally anybody, especially the sort of people who only get preselected for unwinnable seats. The LNP have already had one Scott Driscoll, there may be more. And the obvious example in Qld of MP’s who didn’t expect to get elected is the dozen One Nation raw recruits of 1998. Look what happened to them.
Campbell Newman is doing a pretty good job antagonising voters. At this point credit must also go to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who has hardly put a foot wrong in three years. She has gone from makeshift LOTO to serious contender. A fine effort, given her lack of resources. If only Labor had elected an ageing former union leader instead…
Another union push poll eh Campbell?
Bird of paradox@9
Yes, because their party fell to pieces before the next election. I think you basically have to be a Driscoll or at least a recognisable dud to not get at least some sophomore effect as a first-term sitting member. Routine plodders should still get it, even those who would not have otherwise been elected in a fit.
Leroy Lynch@8
It might be simply because the ALP base vote last time was so awful. Still difficult to test.
Kevin Bonham,
[ Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side and whatever the 2PP it is going to be uphill work for the ALP.]
Would adjusting for sophomore surge in this instance be less useful in this instance as there are less Opposition seats to take up the slack? Or are you saying that a (as far as you can trust 2PPs in an OPV system) 52% is more like a 53% once people recognise the guy on their fridge magnet on their ballot?
[in this instance be less useful in this instance]
*sigh* I’m sure you all understood anyway
KEVIN – I’m not very good at this, but if the Libs basically get an incumbency effect in almost every seat, doesn’t that mean that it will be uniform across seats (and therefore it’s baked into the polls). Do you know what I’m saying? I hope so, because I don’t.
[Police Minister Jack Dempsey said he “did not comment on polls” but said “Campbell Newman is the greatest Premier Queensland has”.]
In fact Jack he is the only Premier Qld has. I think worm scat has more intelligence.
Bugler@14
I’ll take this one together with #16. So far as the 2PP vote is concerned by my count the LNP have double sophomore effect in 33 seats, assuming their incumbent recontests. These are seats where they beat a sitting Labor member last time. They also have single sophomore effect in 14 seats – 9 where they took the seat after a Labor member retired, one where they replaced one of their own, and four in seats they took from indies and minor parties.
Now, the advantage of sophomore effect is the same no matter how many seats it occurs in. So if the Coalition’s getting sophomore effect in over half the seats then what that means is that the amount by which you have to increase Labor’s margin in in the remainder to get to the same 2PP goes up.
On this basis it would be expected that the swing will be concentrated in the seats that the LNP won at both elections (which are mostly on massive margins) and the seats that Labor holds (all eight of them); also perhaps in the third-party seats (7 of these now).
Generally I don’t think sophomore surge causes parties to outperform their polling – it just goes to the distribution of their vote between seats.
If anything, the fewer seats that don’t have sophomore effects, the more lopsided the swing is likely to be between safe and marginal seats.
However I reckon Labor will counter this by running a lot of former incumbents in seats it lost last election.
Kevin – how much do you think OPV changes the seat ratio (relative to full PV) estimates from TPP? My own feeling is that LNP 52-48 would result in a much more comfortable victory than a similar TPP in say Victoria.
In 2009 Labor TPP was 50.9 to 49.1 – my estimate (using old cube ratio rule) for FPV would be Labor 47-48 seats, and they got 51.
In 2006 Labor TPP was 55 to 45 – my estimate for FPV would be Labor 57-58 seats, and they got 59.
That’s an interesting question. I’ve never looked at that one in detail. I suppose (off the top of my head) that the impact of OPV would be to reduce one source of variation in 2PP results, namely different levels of Greens votes, and therefore all else being equal the winner should win more decisively for any given 2PP result than under full PV. I’d think that Green vote variation tended to amplify rather than counteract 2PP variation otherwise (seats with high Green votes tend to also have high Labor votes etc).
The other thing is that Queensland does not have the same level of variation in 2PPs among the urban seats as NSW or Vic. It has very few uber-safe Labor seats which is one of the reasons the near-total seat wipeout happened in Queensland.
What some people are suggesting about this sort of 52-48ish polling is that Queensland might have a deck stacked in Labor’s favour similar to SA with its urban-rural divide. I’ll have to have a close look at this soon. (Still getting my JSCEM submission finished! At least looks like WA won’t be distracting me all that much for much longer.)
Thanks Kevin,
I was more thinking that it’s difficult for the ALP to outperform in it’s own seats to that degree because it really has far too few of them. When I wrote that I forgot about safe LNP seats as well. Might it also be concentrated in seats traditionally held by the ALP that “return” to the fold next election? That said, the current situation is somewhat without precedent.
[polling soon and come up with my own view of what 52-48ish would mean at an election. Have to remember that the LNP has a bucketload of sophomore effect on its side ]
Kevin with so many new members wouldn’t the bucketload of sophomore effect already be reflected to some extent in the current numbers?
I say that the swing has to take in consideration that LNP are going to hand out alot of sweeteners before the election. I think it’s safe to say that Annastacia Palaszczuk has done better then anyone anticipated.
But unless Labor wins government, I don’t think she should be guaranteed leadership- no matter how many seats Labor picks up. Alot of her success has resulted from the LNP arrogance after getting that huge majority from the last election.
20
WA not distracting for too much longer? They sound like famous last words.
kevjohnno@22
I’d think so, to the extent that a 52-48 result across the whole state could be closer to 51-49 without it. That said whether the polls capture the whole of the sophomore effect in those seats at this time is debatable. I’d expect it to accrue over the whole of the term.