The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.
The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.
@Mick77/3454
So has Abbott.
Your argument does not go well.
The USA fomented rebellion in the Ukraine after their failure to oust the Syrian regime having fomented the trouble there. The US/CIA stupid as usual as there is no way in this world that Russia would let their control in the Ukraine go… to the extent of full on armed conflict.
The US good at creating rebellion, war and death when it is not on their door step.
Thomas – did the CIA also build Yanukovich’s mansion, zoo and floating restaurant
I logged in for a completely different reason.
This morning as I was basking in the sunrise at Newhaven, Phillip Island, I bloody well tuned into NewsRadio.
Imagine my outrage when I heard Marius Benson interviewing Kevin Andrews, wtte.
Benson: Well, the good news first. You’re raising the pension? Another $30+ dollars a fortnight for all the aged pensioners?
Andrews: Yes, on March 20, all pensioners will get a rise. For singles it is blah blah, and for couples it will be blah blah.
Marius Bension: And for the bad news.
Andrews: Well, it’s not all bad. All those on allowances will get an extra blah blah.
GRRRRRRRRRRRR!
Marius Benson SHOULD have known that there are automatic rises in the pension (and allowances) in March and September, every year.
Sure, the pensioners get a higher rate, whatever is higher between CoL and CPI, and those on allowances get the lesser increase, but this was legislated under Labor.
If that had been a courtroom, Marius Benson would have been accused of leading the witness.
What I want to know, is why Marius Benson had no idea of the legislation (as a political journo) and why he presented it in such a delighted fashion.
I initially thought it was a “gotcha”. You know, after Andrews talked about the increases in the pension, that Benson would come back with a: but this was a Labor govt guarantee; it was legislated 2 years ago.
BUT, NO. It was as if Benson didn’t have a clue about it.
Grounds for a complaint, I reckon.
And as usual since their organized coup by apparent moderates in the Ukraine at a cost of $5bn was co-opted by neo Nazi extremists.
Diog
[Putin holds a full house and Obama and NATO are holding pairs of fives.
You can’t bluff someone with a full house.]
Elegantly put. Nite.
Mick77 runs off again.
Marius Benson wouldn’t know if a fourpenny bunger went off in his arse.
“@QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 45%, ALP 33%, GREENS 11%.”
Good Dog, I don’t believe it!
Abbott is effectively requesting that Qantas divests into separate businesses.
Companies generally merge for synergy savings and economies of scale.
Abbott wants to do the reverse.
Abbott and the Liberals, It’s TRULY official – Abbott and the Liberals are ECONOMICALLY illiterate!
😎 it’s true 😯
[Thomas – did the CIA also build Yanukovich’s mansion, zoo and floating restaurant]
Whats that got to do with it? The whole lot of them corrupt as can be..including your elite US banker.
This is everything to do with energy. Only a dimwit would think this is about democracy and rights of Ukrainians…Syrians etc…
But of course they have to be careful…they are getting their gas at half price at the moment. And if the US/Europe/Israel really over play their had and create total chaos….what would be the result of gas and oil supply from Russia to Europe being cut…. disaster.
The US happily dragging Europe into a mire…as is their usual want.
I’m afraid Marius Benson has shared his sympathies with us for a long time.
And this is the organisation the conservatives slam as being Labor friendly,
Kezza, I will tell you if I have a gambling problem after the footy on Thursday night 😈
[Thomas – did the CIA also build Yanukovich’s mansion, zoo and floating restaurant]
Of course they did. All of us, Syrians and Ukrainians especially, are nothing more than dust in the wind, waiting to be blown in one direction or another by Americans.
@political_alert: Australian Greens say they will oppose Tony Abbott’s plan to remove protections in the Qantas Sale Act: http://t.co/mV9AMGOZfh #auspol
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 9:05 pm | PERMALINK
The Crimea is populated mainly by Russians who want to be part of Russia. And most of its history it has been part of Russia.
Putin holds a full house and Obama and NATO are holding pairs of fives.
You can’t bluff someone with a full house.]
But why is it a bluff when someone doesn’t want to go to war?
Do we really care about the Crimea? Do we? Do we want to sacrifice our kids in the Crimea? Do we?
As far as I can tell, Russia holds all the cards anyway. It’s nothing to do with Crimea.
If the EU can’t get a resource, through Ukraine, then Russia taking Crimea doesn’t make a scrap of difference.
But of course, prestige to a dictator, and Putin is nothing less, then land acquisition is second best.
But whether Russia takes Crimea or not, the EU is still beholden to energy supplies through the Ukraine.
I listened to the BBC overnight, and most, if not all, ordinary Crimean citizens wanted to be Russian.
It’s not something for the US to go to war over.
I’ve long had issues with Benson’s biased reporting.
[“@QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 45%, ALP 33%, GREENS 11%.”]
Why aren’t they using Bludgertrack for heavens sake?
[confessions
Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 9:23 pm | PERMALINK
“@QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 45%, ALP 33%, GREENS 11%.”
Why aren’t they using Bludgertrack for heavens sake?]
When I complained about the ratio of the Q&A audience, last year or maybe the year before, I was told in no uncertain terms it was the primary votes according to Newspoll.
Grounds for another complaint?
Centre
Which footy?
kezza:
I’ve seen the same excuse posted previously. Which raises of the question of which particular Newspoll results they are using?
fess
[Which raises of the question of which particular Newspoll results they are using?]
Let’s ask William?
William, when was the ratio of the voting public, according to Newspoll, last expressed as:
QandA audience tonight: COALITION 45%, ALP 33%, GREENS 11%.”?
Surely, at the heart of the whole Govt strategy onQantas is freeing Qantas from requirements to maintain planes onshore, etc etc. Am I right?
The latest NEwspoll primary votes are:
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes Feb 24
#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-2) ALP 39 (+4) GRN 12 (-2) #auspol]
K17
Yes – another chip away at the unions.
@Confessions/3524
Don’t forget LNP+Nationals.
[William, when was the ratio of the voting public, according to Newspoll, last expressed as:
QandA audience tonight: COALITION 45%, ALP 33%, GREENS 11%.”?]
Early November.
I suspect Mick 77. real annoyance with Obama (who knows the score re the Ukraine) is that Obama is not going to war for any reason…and certainly not for the Isreali warmongers who want a war with Iran…at high costs to the USA
Obama is not a friend of Natanyhahu and they are realising they are on their own ,in a region where they are hated
Oddly their sole allies now are the Saudi Royals ,who are also under seige
so no war with Russia,which Mick 77 and his kind would rather like to see..,as they don’t like Putin’s support for the Syrian regime
Glad Jones mentioned Hockey’s earlier statements alluding to a debt guarantee for Qantas.
fess
Found it. This is from William, from the latest Newspoll.
[The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two).]
So, tonight’s Q&A should have been 39:39:10:12
Where 39 = Labor PV & Coalition PV
10 = Greens
12 = Others
Instead we have Coal 45, Labor 33 & Greens 11. Which makes Others = 11.
You do the math. ABC bias is a one-way street.
Putin also knows the US is massively in debt and can’t afford a war even if they wanted one.
No Jason, the line to highlight isn’t that in opposition Abbott said no to everything, but that in opposition he guaranteed he could create jobs.
http://m.afr.com/p/national/the_abbott_and_hockey_show_lots_d2M445VWC1WPxBwUMaVBnK this is Laura Tingle’s article on Abbott and Hockey
kezza:
Yes, something is amiss.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
“I still call Australia boned” Qantas. #qanda
Why did the coalition go to the election promising to save jobs by abolishing the carbon ‘tax’ when we’ve already seen so many jobs go despite carbon pricing?
And the follow up question to that therefore has to be do they have a Plan B to protect Australian jobs?
The Russian energy minister last night warned the Ukraine over their unpaid energy bills(oil and gas ) with Russia
Like any consumer who doesn’t pay their bills the Ukrainians(who get it for 1/2 the world price from Russia,) ..might find that the Russian have turned off the taps…then their mates in Euroland will have to some up with big bickies indeed,to keep the lights burning in Kiev)
BTW The new Ukrainian PM ,who can’t help his looks..,seems about as charasmatic as Dennis Napthine on an off day
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 9:43 pm | PERMALINK
Putin also knows the US is massively in debt and can’t afford a war even if they wanted one.]
And that is exactly true.
And what about the US debt to China? Where does that take us (not the US, but Australia?)
I was really upset with the Gillard govt agreeing to a US base at Darwin. I felt it was unnecessarily provocative.
And I can’t help but feel that Abbott and BishopJ are upping the ante. Not the least by getting the Indons offside.
It’s okay if you have the money to avoid being a wretched casualty of war, and even if you have to sacrifice a child or two – in valour – but it is not okay for the rest of a civilian population to suffer.
I’m worried about this situation. It’s okay to have a royal flush while your opponent holds a coupla fives; it’s not okay to spin the world into war just because you have the upper hand.
But try telling America that.
And someone asks exactly that.
[Stop picking on Mod Lib, he’s the only extant remnant of his species.]
moderate liberals do not vote for the LNP and certainly do not defend abbott and co and celebrate their ‘achievements’ the way Mod Lib does. Howard liquidated the moderates and abbott will go further to fill the party with fellow bernardi-like loons (abbott and bernardi are cut from the same cloth). Turnbull and a few others pretend because of the seats they represent, but their are no moderates with conviction or courage to speak out when they need to. Unfortunately The ‘left-right’ ‘moderate’ divide in Australian parliament sits somewhere with 99% of LNP and 30-50% of labor on the ‘right’ side of the line. Penny Wong and Tanya Plibersek are moderates near the centre. Senator Hill was the last moderate member of the LNP to hold a senior position. Georgio and Moylan were the last moderates period. I saw the australian the other day call steven conroy ‘hard left’. they have not a fucking clue. “moderate” and “liberal” does not equal “LNP”.
I think the political composition of the Q&A audience is mostly predicated on who actually bothers to rock up.
I doubt it has any impact on the quality of the show or even its supposed bias. If the audience members were 100% Trotskyist it wouldn’t change who was on the panel or the format of the show.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 8m
If we replaced the QANTAS board with a selection of autumnal vegetables, we’d be half way to solving the entire problem right there #qanda]
Tony Abbott sets up Qantas showdown
[Section three of the Qantas Sale Act, which the government will seek to remove in its entirety:
• Restricts total foreign ownership of Qantas to 49%, as well as capping the level of ownership by another single foreign airline at 35% and a single foreign owner at 25%.
• Requires the Qantas head office to be in Australia.
• Requires two-thirds of Qantas directors be Australian citizens.
• Requires Qantas to be incorporated in Australia.
• Requires that maintenance and catering for international flights be primarily done in Australia.
• Stops Qantas from changing its name.]
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/03/tony-abbott-sets-up-qantas-showdown?CMP=twt_gu
[moderate liberals do not vote for the LNP and certainly do not defend abbott and co and celebrate their ‘achievements’ the way Mod Lib does.]
Sorry, but I can say with direct experience of my family that moderate Liberals whinge about Howard and ABbott in public, yet in the polling booth simply hold their noses and continue to vote Liberal.
AT:
But it might change the questions they get. Which sets the direction/tone for the overall show.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
Josh Frydenberg is proving to be a first class dipshit on #qanda His productivity cliches aren’t even remotely grounded in empirical reality]
The Liberal equivalent to Paul Howes?
confessions
From what I’ve seen the audience participation aspect of Q&A is overstated. The questions form a springboard for a general discussion of the subject mentioned in the question, and that’s about it.
I confess however I no longer watch the show, I find it to be exceedingly tedious.
Steve777,
[Re sustainable future @3468 – The ABC’s Managing Director Mark Scott believes, like Joseph Goebbels, that repetition convinces.
Geoffrey Luck, the author of that article, has obviously confused Mark Scott with Tony Abbott or one of his minsters “Carbon tax / unions / Carbon Tax / unions / Carbon Tax / unions…”. A lie, repeated often enough…]
Sing along to Tones as he repeats his anti-Carbon Tax message a la Donna Summer’s, “I feel love”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7weusloU8Xc
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
Carbon Tax
(ad nauseam…)
@Conffessions/3542
If you replace Qantas Board with Liberals (aka what they are currently) then you have a point.
[Sorry, but I can say with direct experience of my family that moderate Liberals whinge about Howard and ABbott in public, yet in the polling booth simply hold their noses and continue to vote Liberal.]
that’s the difference between being a moderate (rusted on) Liberal and a moderate (small l) liberal. I agree that many rusted ons will whinge but vote for them anyway (as many here did for Rudd last year – they don’t actually ‘vote for’, they ‘vote against’), but the fact remains Mod Lib celebrates and defends abbott way to much to be considered ‘moderate’. has got worse over the past 12 month as true colours have shown.