The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.
The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.
The Kouk is on fire tonight. 😆
[@TheKouk : Air India and Qantas hook up – The Flying Vindaloo]
mikehilliard
Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 9:57 pm
Tony Abbott sets up Qantas showdown
OR Tony Abbott sets up Qantas shutdown?
All unionised workforces must go – he feels threatened by anything that has any countering power. Gutless wonder.
cone head
i think you left off:
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it worked for the fuckers.
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Dio
Re war.
My kids are out of the equation now. There’s no hope of them being conscripted (or being called up to defend the mother country) but I feel sorry for people like you who have to really think hard about whether or not you want your kids to participate in a war that has nothing to do with us.
The blokes and women who went to Afghanistan and Iraq thought they were fighting the good fight. Until they were there, and they realised they were fighting a bad fight.
And they came back just as traumatised as our soldiers from Vietnam.
And just as traumatised as those from WWII. It didn’t matter if we “won” or not, although I’d say it was better to win, the suffering was still the same.
Take care of your kids, Dio.
This whole Manus Isl thing has come about simply because of Morrison’s secrecy, and then attempted cover up.
sf:
My own view is that Mod Lib’s comments have been veering towards derangement since s/he took the screen name of Everything.
I haven’t therefore been reading them and so can’t comment.
RE Manus Island
What happened to the ABC AM/PM Report tweet that, according to Amnesty, a second AS, transferred to Brisbane as a result of the riot, had died at Brisbane Hospital?
Bias?
Anothert success for Us military interventio
____________________________________
Last week Psephos said he favoured wars of interventikon against dictators tol introduce demcacy
Well that’s not working out so well in Libya
DOWN the Libyan Parliament…after three years of arguement over a constitution,while the country became a failed state
sorry about that Libyans …US and EU got all that wrong TOO
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/africa/frustrated-with-the-pace-of-change-rioters-storm-parliam
No Tony Jones, there is no point asking Labor what happens if PNG reneges on the agreement to settle AS. Labor is no longer the govt!!!
Did anybody see the Reachtel Poll on Channel 7 news tonight? It showed a TPP OF 53:47 to the ALP, unchanged since last poll. LNP up a little in primaries as are the greens, ALP primaries down a little.
Malcolm Turnbull more popular than Abbott and Hockey combined.
Nothing on the Reachtel site as yet.
confessions #3559
dead right
sustainable future,
[cone head
i think you left off:
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Yeah, that was the B-side.
(showing my age here – you young pups probably don’t know what a fecking B-side is!)
deblonay
It’s hardly America’s fault Libyans hated their dictator.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 40.3 (+0.5) ALP 39.2 (-1.4) GRN 10.5 (+1.4) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 27.7 Turnbull 53.2 Hockey 19.1 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (L/NP Voters): Abbott 58.6 Turnbull 27.6 Hockey 13.8 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (ALP Voters): Abbott 5.6 Turnbull 76.5 Hockey 17.9 #auspol
Coalition Leadershit already lol!
Kezza @ 3520
Rooser v Rabbit to kick start the season in the mens.
Those who served in Vietnam appeared to come out worse off than WW2 veterans.
It was reasoned that it due the age of the combatants.
Vietnam the average age was reported as 19yr old.
Whereas WW2 the average was 27 or 29yr old.
It was a fair while ago that I read this comparison.
confessions
“No Tony Jones, there is no point asking Labor what happens if PNG reneges on the agreement to settle AS. Labor is no longer the govt!!!”
I think it’s a fair question. Labor royally fucked up when it came to asylum seekers, Manus really became completely owned by them and they really ought to be prepared to answer questions about how they envisioned the resettlement process (not to mention the running of the centre itself).
I find the “but we’re not in government” wave-away to be a cop out. Just as I found it when Abbott and his cronies were doing it in opposition.
At one time I had a bit of respect for Turn(fullof)Bull.
The lack of any bipartisan action during the GFC and the Goodwin Grech thing finished him for me
“We need to have flexibility in the workforce”. Transalation: flexibility for workers to do what they’re told. The employer dictates wages and conditions. Employer has the worker waiting by the phone waiting to be called whether they’re needed today or not. Unpaid internships. Hire and fire at will. ‘Flexible’ OHS laws (i.e. if the worker gets injured, it’s their fault).
Maybe we need competent management.
Centre
[Rooser v Rabbit to kick start the season in the mens.]
Ah so.
I don’t have a clue about rugby stuff. Charlie Over The Water to me. Just biffo, non-stop. AFL skill any day.
However, are the Rabbits owned by Russell Crowe? Not that that makes any difference to your bet.
Do we risk Abbott for two terms to increase Labor’s chances OR do we concede the next election but have Turnbull as PM.
I can’t stand the Monkey, let’s go with Turnbull.
Steve777
Indeed. ‘Flexibility’ is a one-way street as far as the reactionaries are concerned. I can’t recall any of the current conservative rabble advocating for as much flexibility for the worker as they constantly demand for the employer.
Sue Morphett is correct to highlight the need to reduce regulations, we have too many P.S inspired processes and procedures which add cost and complexity.
Increased flexibility can be introduced to the workplace if its fair dinkum, as Morphett points out it isn’t all about wages but the many other things.
kezza
I think Russell might need some tissues at full-time.
Chookies to win.
But I think the Bunnies are in for a big year, if that makes sense 😎
Turnbull’s just another right wing plutocrat who has decided he wants political power as well as money. He seems ‘moderate’ because unlike most of his party colleagues he feels no need to pander to the religious right.
With the Reachtel poll confirming Turnbull’s popularity one can only see this quote from him as a leadership bid. How long will Abbott put up with his mentor Rupert being dissed by one of his Ministers. Delicious dilemma for the Tories. Something will give soon … if Abbott continues to tank there will be a challenge and one can see Hockey and Bishop angling for influence….
“I am the minister that seeks to ensure that we have the freest and most diverse media we can possibly manage. I am the minister that wants to take away the barriers to competition wherever I can so that as many voices can speak out as possible, and whether they are left or right is of no concern to me in my capacity as the Minister for Communications.”
A conservative Liberal MP said “we have our own demented plutocrat in the Liberal Party. Turnbull is a protected species who uses his wealth and status in the media to advance arguments that have no currency in the Liberal Party.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/turnbull-not-minister-for-rightwing-communications-20140303-340ei.html#ixzz2utjwugsA
@MB/3574
Too many? Just simplify them then.
Giving away to many regulations to corp thefts is just allowing them to ‘hey we want more’.
Big business will still be demanding ‘flexibility’ when we’ve reintroduced sweatshops and child labor. Oh, that’s right, we have, in factories in Asia contracted to ‘respected’ multi nationals.
[I think it’s a fair question. ]
I think it’s a classic gotcha question, esp when you have a representative of the actual govt sitting right alongside you.
de villiers gone – 5 down.
A Turnbull reincarnation would just be Abbott by proxy. Turnbull may indeed be a moderate, but outside of fairly totemic gestures like free votes on gay marriage and the like, the industrial, economic, climate and border policy impetus would all come from the dominant right wing of the Liberal Party.
Worse, Turnbull for some inexplicable reason is actually popular. So, you would have a Liberal leader with plenty of expendible political capital to contend with should he return.
This is why people like Mod Lib love Turnbull so much. They know he is much, much more capable of implementing a right-wing policy renaissance than Abbott could ever be.
Off topic, but could I put in a plug for an outstanding US HBO production currently showing on Foxtel – True Detective with Matthew McConnaghy (who got the best actor gong at the Oscars for his role in the Dallas Buyers Club)
A ripping clever police procedural with outstanding production values. The yanks are really kicking goals in TV drama at the moment.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
Those who served in Vietnam appeared to come out worse off than WW2 veterans.]
Because they weren’t welcomed home as heroes.
The WWII combatants were.
[It was reasoned that it due the age of the combatants.]
Poppycock. It was because they were involved in an manufactured US War.
[Vietnam the average age was reported as 19yr old.]
The average age was 21.
[Whereas WW2 the average was 27 or 29yr old.]
Was that at the start or the end of the war?
[It was a fair while ago that I read this comparison.]
Does it really matter the age of the recruits?
All it means is that young men (and women) are sent to their death at the behest of their government.
I take no truck with your stats, but by the same token stats just gloss over personal tragedy and anguish.
And there’s no bloody way my kids will ever be involved in a shitty, neo-con war. Ever. Couldn’t give a rats if there was some sort of stat or other involved.
And, I hope, all of you young parents feel the same. Someone has to take a stand somewhere. And I salute Obama for trying to put an end to US hegemony.
[#ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (ALP Voters): Abbott 5.6 Turnbull 76.5 Hockey 17.9 #auspol]
Yeah babe, bring it!
*night, me crash.
Good day for Labor, Libs are a rabble.
Johnston!!
AA 3569
I am going to disagree with you on one point.
We needed to hear adverse positions to the governments policies during the GFC. I would have liked coverage given to other more radical positions too.
ooops *Johnson!!!*
I wonder why Labor never got around to repealing that part of the selling assets?
Abbott 5.6 Turnbull 76.5 Hockey 17.9
On that note I will adjourn.
[de villiers gone – 5 down.]
Saffers Fwarked. 🙁
6 down now. Unhappy Saffers. 🙂
Zoidy
Sometimes regulations don’t work as intended or conditions change resulting in the regulation becoming a liability to the intent.
Floods to increase ‘four fold’ in England by 2050:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26382128
Am struggling to understand the powerplays in the LP at the moment.
Hockey their outstanding Parliamentary performer keeps getting rolled (Qantas being the latest).
Turnbull being indirectly defiant by slagging off Murdoch
Abbott in a minority of one supporting PPL.
New legislation stuck in the PMO.
Backbenchers being openly critical of various frontbenchers.
And they claim the last Government was dysfunctional….
@MB/3593
Or businesses too slow to react to law changes? I have seen that many times in Business, they always complain about new law changes.
We need state-ability – not continued changes in law.
Zoidy
Yes that too but that is not an excuse for governments to just keep creating regulations which they tend to do to justify their existence.
We are not as bad as the Americans but we are at risk of becoming over governed.
@MB/3597
And under-governed.
“Free Market” thing liberals keep sprouting gives me the Sh!ts.
[New legislation stuck in the PMO.]
I’d say they have no interest in legislation isnt seen as in some way damaging for the ALP.
With the Qantas stuff they seem to be mainly looking at getting a situation where they can blame someone else for whatever happens. If they were serious about keeping Qantas afloat they would insist on a board restructure, a proper business plan, and have some sort of a debt guarantee AFTER that.
Really, they seem to have no actual interest in governing. Its all about being in power.
So is Abbott going to give us thE DD he promised, if the Qantas Sales Act cannot be repealed?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/27/bludgertrack-50-7-49-3-to-labor/?comment_page=72/#comments