BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor”

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  1. Zoidy

    Surely you are not of the view that Australia is under-governed.

    I have never argued for no regulation but we need to ensure that regulation achieves its objective without hurting the economy, business and the community.

    Too much regulation is bad regulation, just as too little regulation is bad policy as shown during the GFC.

  2. Kezza

    I agree with you on the tragedy of the way we treated Vietnam vets. WWII vets got respect, medical care, legacy for families, and a new start farm or job (or the GI Bill in the USA).

    Vietnam vets, after having been conscripted to fight in an unpopular war, got blamed for that unpopular war, no respect, no support, and no compensation for losing the best years of their lives. They returned home to a country struggling with 70s recessions. No wonder many turned to drugs and alcohol. No wonder many suffered very poor health.

    I know several Vietnam vets who all said the same thing. When they returned home the army brass ordered them to say nothing about it to anyone. All that frustration was just bottled up, eating people up. I am proud of the Vietnam vets I know who went on to have successful lives, despite a very rough start. I feel great sadness for those who did not. One family friend had qualified to study medicine before conscription. Upon return he never went back to uni. A terrible waste.

  3. [“We need to have flexibility in the workforce”]

    Hear hear. I’m starting at ten tomorrow. Then i’m leaving at 11.30 to catch up with a mate, probably have a long lunch. I’ll head down and pick up the kids at 3 and set them up with the iPad under the desk while i knock off the rest of the day’s work.

  4. When pressed (on tonight’s Q&A) about what regulations she would like removed, Ms. Morphett said wtte employers want the ability to negotiate directly with their employees so as to quickly arrive at what they want, without the intervention of third parties. In other words, they want the unions gone, so that they can use their vastly superior market power against individuals to quickly tell them what they must accept, no pesky negotiations involved.

  5. Regulation is the same as flexibility. The only regulations the corporate world cares about are those that harm them. And Liberal governments talk the talk but are just as happy to regulate when it suits them, and very rarely repeal regulations when they have the opportunity.

  6. MP

    I appreciate Manufacturing is difference to the corporate sector but the corporate sector does seem to have achieved a more flexible and in many cases high paying environment, has anyone ever looked into why these two parts are so culturally different.

  7. As you all well know, I’ve never been a fan of Farmers Getting A Handout.

    In fact, I’ve said on numerous occasions, show me a farmer who pays tax and I’ll show you a farmer with a bad accountant.

    However, after Dragonsita kicked the buggers up the kyber, with nary an insight into farming, and comparing them to SPC, Cadbury, Qantas, etc, then I’m not au fait (nor agreeable) with that analysis.

    So, tonight I’ll get my act together to present an argument to reason why farmers are a special case.

    And, maybe I’ll even post it on Paula Matthewson’s site.

    As it stands, she has no idea about the difference between an iconic airline and Australia’s farmers.

    The similarity is both are considered “the backbone of Australia”. While one of these icons is about to be thwacked by the Abbott govt, thrown to the vultures, the other is about to be resurrected by the Nats as part of the Coalition.

    One is thrown a lifeline, the other is told to sink or swim.

    But, does it make sense?

    No, not when one icon is pitted against another.

    But there is a very good reason that Australia’s farming sector should be saved.

    Be back tomorrow.

  8. victoria:

    What do you think?

    Personally I think Abbott is speaking out the other side of his mouth, but no journalist will question him on the DD issue, and so the point is somewhat moot.

  9. obviously corby speaks with noone with slightest mentoring or intelligence … and has no real agent .. apart from media … this family of whinging lying children will soon see a tougher hand. and willesse born again catholic can take his piece of silver … and to hell with his subject. journalist ethics indeed. what next mike explains his dilemma in another hour doco while schapelle stares at the blank wall of freedom lost … there was nothing good about the promo i saw, it was like a red rag to indonesian public, govt and ideologues.


    Schapelle Corby and her family spent nearly two hours on Monday explaining their Australian TV appearance to officials at the Bali Justice Office in the hope of resisting a push to revoke her bail and return her to Kerobokan prison.
    Sunar Agus, the head of the corrections division at the justice office, who conducted the Monday meeting, also confirmed that the family had left the luxury villa that interviewer Mike Willesee described as a “gilded cage” and moved to another, undisclosed location.
    Mr Sunar said Schapelle had been “uncommunicative” throughout the meeting in his office while sister Mercedes and brother-in-law Wayan Widyartha had explained what was said in the Seven Network interview, and what they hoped to achieve by it.
    The Sunday Night program showed Schapelle Corby’s first swim since her release.
    The Sunday Night program showed Schapelle Corby’s first swim since her release. Photo: Seven Network
    Mr Sunar sent his report on the meeting to the justice department in Jakarta to await a decision by the Minister for Justice and Human Rights about Corby’s parole.
    Mr Sunar told Fairfax Media that Mercedes and Wayan had informed him that the program covered the death of Corby’s father Mick and the medical care Mercedes had given her in prison, as well as their move out of the Sentosa villas.
    But the program covered significantly more ground than that, and Mr Sunar said it was a matter for judgment by others if the family had lied to officials, or if what was in the program was sufficient to cause Schapelle’s parole to be revoked.
    He said the family had argued again that Corby should be allowed to do the interview so that other, non-favoured journalists, would stop “hounding her for an interview”.
    “But judging from my meeting with her, she would not make a very good interview subject,” Mr Sunar said.
    “She was not very communicative and I didn’t want to add pressure to her [by insisting she talk].” Justice minister Mr Amir is expected to decide in coming days if the Sunday Night program is enough to see Corby’s parole revoked.
    He avoided the media waiting at his office in Jakarta on Monday, but, on a popular morning program, his deputy, Denny Indrayana, expressed disquiet about the Seven Network’s broadcast, which was simply called Schapelle.
    Political pressure is mounting within Indonesia for Corby to be locked up again.
    Mr Denny said that, while the issue needed more study, Corby may have been “sneaking around the law” in the program, which featured footage of her celebrating her release, and a soft interview with sister Mercedes.

    Read more:

  10. Zoidy

    Q&A gave a good example of a business taking two years to be able to build a factory when elsewhere it was up and running ion a much quicker time.

    You yourself have often complained about the hoops people on DSP have too though to satisfy regulation.

    There are hundreds of laws which could be trimmed, not just the side of acts but the overlap between the State and Federal governments.

  11. Corporations want to be liberated from regulations about pesky things like employee rights, the environment, consumer protection, payment of tax, transparancy and OH&S. On the other hand, regulations that allocate them rents, protect them from ‘unfair’ competion or bail them out when they fail are OK.

  12. @MB/3613

    Yes, but do you think this government is able to do such a thing?

    With this government, the Liberals want a universal payment system instead of having DSP, so they can cut payments and so called save money.

  13. zoo

    [Floods to increase ‘four fold’ in England by 2050: ]

    you’re being alarmist :). the CDL (climate denying loons) are claiming the UK floods are all because the evil greens/UN/One world government stopped dredging of channels and rivers. NOTHING to do with record dumping of rain. so it’s all fine – nothing to see here.

    have you noticed that the Libs have started doing this thing where they start off saying “We accept the science of climate science and are committed to action,..” before then casting doubt on that science or the need to heed that science? e.g WTTE of “We accept the science of climate change and are committed to action, but think that one in 100 year weather events occurring every 2-5 years, bushfires in october, record droughts in non-El Nino years, and new heat records each consecutive year are part of the natural cycle and we cannot be sure to what extent it is due to human activity, despite the clear scientific evidence that it is” (Ok, I paraphrased a bit too much at the end). Even the minister for rhyming slang Greg Hunt is doing it now. It is akin to people saying “With all due respect..” before being really offensive (it’s in the Geneva convention!)

  14. [Q&A gave a good example of a business]

    Did they give any examples of regulations that favour business and that business has never once called for repeal?

    I’m guessing no.

    ____________RE LIBYA




  16. FarQU
    [Regulation is the same as flexibility. The only regulations the corporate world cares about are those that harm them. ]
    Agreed. The corporate world is also remarkably silent on the regulations that create wealth for them, especially those that restrict competition and cause monopolies.

    You will not hear many corporate whinges against the following regs:
    – restrictive importing laws on everything from NZ apples to drugs made in third party countries. We pay a lot for stuff that can only be distributed by sole suppliers here.
    – intellectual property laws for old books and music where copyright should have run out years ago
    – superannuation rules that force billions a year to be channelled into listed super funds, whether they perform or not. Without those rules the financial scammer industry would not exist.
    – land zoning rules that allow wealthy land holders to gain from under supply e.g. Residential land
    – fuel subsidies for farmers and miners
    – rules restricting who can broadcast television or radio, sell electricity, mine land etc.

    Try to eliminate any of these regs and see the corporate fury.

  17. Oh, and another thing.

    Germaine Greer said Mike Willesee was the best thing since sliced bread, in terms of sexual prowess, way back when.

    I doubt Schappelle Corby thinks the same. Especially since he betrayed her by giving a report that could see her end up back in jail.

    Don’t ya hate the meeja sometimes.

  18. Socrates

    I would argue that some of those regulations are needed for community benefit such as restriction on drugs made in third party countries.

    The third world has shown that with clothing the quality isn’t always as good therefore i couldn’t expect them to manufacture important drugs.

    Many of the other regulations mentioned such as the cross media laws have prevented Murdoch from a complete media take-over.

    The restrictions on who can sell electricity has proven to be an underlining cause of ever increasing power prices and it is becoming clearer as time goes on that power privatsation hasn’t delivered lower costs for the community.

  19. Planning is an area where over-regulation has taken hold, we need clear and concise direction on where development can take place and what is too be protected, we need a balance between protecting heritage and encouraging greater use of urban space.

    We don’t have a shortage of land for both development and open space but too often the policies make a detailed law then once some public disquiet occurs the plan gets dumped.

    The Camberwell Railway Station is a good example, under the Melbourne 2030 planning rules the project should have proceeded but a certain Mr Rush and friends complained loudly and the plan was sunk.

  20. Another example Immigration, just how many visas do we need, a person is either here to live, holiday or study usually with hope of living.

  21. Alarming role of neo-nazi and fascists groups in the new Govt of Ukraine
    A US Prof Chussudovsky looks in Global Report at the many ministers in the new Urkairian Govt who come from a number of fascist right wing parties in the Right-Tendency..a coalition of such groups and the way that this has not been much commented on in the western media

    Why …one might ask
    There is much admiration by some Ministers for the late Stephan Bandera, executed in 1945 by the Russians for leading a Ukrainian fascist group who fought against the Russian under Nazi control and foughtwith the Nazis to the bitter end

    An aklarming article from a US site

  22. Where is Edwina SJ tonight
    Has he/sheleft for the Ukraine to fight for it’s fascist government ..see post 3627

    we should have given him(or her ???) a send-off

    and where is Psephos… has he gone too

    how can we cope without his stern supervision of we wayward old lefties???

  23. fess

    following on from your comments last night about moderate Liberals (real ones)…

    I have a very dear friend who is a genuine moderate Liberal (I’m told, btw, that they’re a different breed in Victoria..). She’s always been very supportive of me – with the caveat – “Can’t vote for you, darling, I’m a Lib.”

    Saddened me greatly to hear her pleading on the radio before the last election for people to bear in mind the plight of AS when they voted — “I already know who I’m voting for” she added.

    She was trying to persuade others to vote against the Libs while she voted for them.

  24. What a hoot:

    Brandis scrambling following the AFP imbroglio after Stokes spat the dummy, Famille Corby maintaining their rage against reality, and Ch 7 management waxing indignant at the AFP, and really, truly, Ch 7 is not doing anything wRONg with the classless clueless criminelle du jour according to the public lack of interest test.

    Aussie lemmings in a mass shark jumping incident?

    Meanwhile, back on your actual planet, the Indonesians are feeling a tad inclined to wacking the peccant pot miscreant back in the slammer for trampling all over Indonesian sensibilities.

  25. AAchemed @ 3567

    The reason that the average age of WWII veterans being higher is most likely due to the number of WW1 veterans signing up again, although many were late 30s/early 40s.

    I know this from reading archives at a Defence Force Museum I used to work for. Unbelievable that men would sign up a second time.

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