Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 33
1 2 3 … 33

  3. [The Job losses will still be mounting long after Thomson is forgotten.]

    Sufficient unto tomorrow the news cycle thereof. Abbott’s lines for today will be:
    * Thomson case proves need for RC into union corruption.
    * Manus riots shows what nasty people illegals are and why we need to stop them.
    Even he can’t mess up obvious killer lines like that.

  4. Sohar @33
    The Essential Research question was about providing jobs, not export earnings. Anyway, there is certainly potential for export of entertainment since we are so fond of it. Australian music has sold well overseas at times, I believe Australian soaps are well regarded in the UK, and some Hollywood movies are made here.

  7. Dave I try to be a realist. I accept you have formed an opinion of me and are unlikely to change. I know you will continue to challenge me when you think fit and that’s your right.

    There are far worse things a person can be called than a Tory apologist.

  12. guytaur@47

    “@NeilChenoweth: Sinodinos joins AWH board Oct 31 08, chairman from Nov 3 2010, resigns Nov 9 2011. That is, he was there much of time #ICAC is investigating”

    Neil Chenoweth – the AFR guy who help UK Panorama program put together a blockbuster show on Newscorp and Hackergate and then did a 5 page spread on it in the AFR.

    Apparently the murdochs hate him with a passion….

  13. Retweeted by EFA
    Leanne O’Donnell ‏@MsLods 27m

    .@juhasaarinen highlights how we should learn from international experience in tackling #copyright infringement http://bit.ly/1cjBDo6

    Labor has 4 potent issues for them raise.

    1. “Illegals”, Death at Detention Centers, Not Deaths at Sea.
    2. Copyright.
    3. National Broadband Network no longer 1 big network.
    4. Job Security.

  14. Psephos, your excuses for the Tories are, at best, short-term. Do you think the punters will care less about a RC or naughty asylum seekers if unemployment hits 8 or 9 percent.

  17. dave, whilst I agree with dwh that Australian corporate regulation is better than other places, it has been my hunch that corporates generally acting ethically has been more of a cultural thing (perhaps down to having a pretty good bunch of corporate execs, or a pretty wise society, or the Smithian invisible hand) than due to good regulation and laws and the enforcement of those. The problem with that is (especially the invisible hand), these cultural “regulations” can slide away over time, a slide that can quickly steepen with a far right government dependent on big donations in power.

  20. Psephos@53

    The Job losses will still be mounting long after Thomson is forgotten.


    Sufficient unto tomorrow the news cycle thereof. Abbott’s lines for today will be:
    * Thomson case proves need for RC into union corruption.
    * Manus riots shows what nasty people illegals are and why we need to stop them.
    Even he can’t mess up obvious killer lines like that.

    That might work if there was an election in the near future, but come the next election, it will all be long forgotten. Concerns about Job security will stick around, however.
    As far as any Royal Commission into the Union Corruption go, it does take two to tangle. As the similar one in the 70’s proved, it can backfire big time, and sweep business along with it
    Psephos@58

    And if he does get asked about Point Henry he’ll just blame the carbon tax.

    John Kerry proved that blaming the ‘carbon tax’ for all ills is now redundant.
    Abbott is increasingly isolated with his stance.

  21. victoria 48,

    so is there not a growing number of people opposed to Newman policies but still saying they will vote for him (perhaps due to the way they voted at last election)? You mention “House of Cards” in another post, is the Newman government one scandal away from a collapse in their vote?

  22. [Labor has 4 potent issues for them raise.

    1. “Illegals”, Death at Detention Centers, Not Deaths at Sea.
    2. Copyright.
    3. National Broadband Network no longer 1 big network.
    4. Job Security.]

    1. You’re kidding, right? This issue is toxic for Labor. And which government was it that sent these people to Manus?
    2. What about it?
    3. Agree
    4. Agree

  28. Simon Katich@67

    dave, whilst I agree with dwh that Australian corporate regulation is better than other places, it has been my hunch that corporates generally acting ethically has been more of a cultural thing (perhaps down to having a pretty good bunch of corporate execs, or a pretty wise society, or the Smithian invisible hand) than due to good regulation and laws and the enforcement of those.

    Please, the above is pure cool aid nonsense. Pure pollyanna which from what I’ve seen of your posts is very unusual for you. Your posts are normally very good.

    One classic example is the bottom of the harbor scam in which so many leading lights of the business community were involved.

    Then the utter betrayal of Pratt. I could go on.

    The gold standard to get a better view of it all would be to read some of the books of veteran financial journalist, Trevor Sykes, viz

    – The Bold Riders and

    – Two Centuries of Panic

  30. Retweeted by R_Chirgwin
    Chris O’Regan ‏@monkeytypist 5m

    funny how “cops at union office” = “union must have done wrong.” “Cops at TV station” = “cops must have done wrong.”

  32. But this would seem to be a classic case of the wrong people buying a business they probably didn’t know much about.
    Watch to see how the unions get blamed for this.

  33. victoria Ashgrove was always going to be a difficult seat to win with any sort of swing back to Labor. If the LNP haven’t been planning for that possibility then they don’t care much if they lose their leader.

    As for an early election probably not on the cards at present and if the Redcliffe by-election goes as expected then not likely any time soon.

  34. @Rossmcg/79
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-15/cootes-transport-voluntarily-grounds-entire-victorian-fleet/5262094

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cootes-transport-allowed-longer-shifts-greater-weight-despite-tanker-deaths-20140216-32tv3.html

    Possibly related?

    Retweeted by Scott Ludlam
    Jane Tribune ‏@JaneTribune 35m

    “In any kind of functioning democracy, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison would now resign” https://newmatilda.com//2014/02/18/how-much-longer-will-madness-continue … Well said @beneltham

  36. [500 jobs going at transport company Cootes. Don’t know a lot of detail about the background but th]

    Probably associated with their shoddy maintenance practices which saw killer vehicles operating on the road

  37. Not sure whether Morrison should resign however Australia urgently needs to review the PNG arrangement. We can’t accept police entering refugee camps with machine guns and killing refugees. Morrison will be judged by how he reacts to this situation.

  38. Zoidloid

    Yeah I was aware of that. I saw the four corners and it sounded like the accountants and money men had bought what was a fairly specialised business. Funny how often that happens and it goes pear shaped.

  39. rossmcg @ 79

    The losses at Cootes relate back to the accident with the Cootes tanker last year(?) in Sydney which was caused by a systemic lack of maintenance. Trucks were pulled off the road by NSW and Vic authorities several times due to concerns over maintenance, etc. Company agreed to improve maintenance procedures but following a further raid by NSW authorities nothing much appeared to have been done. I belive Cootes lost major contracts in NSW and Victoria to Toll. A pity. This company when run by the Cootes family was regarded as a well run outfit with clean and well maintained vehicles. Sold to another company when the owner retired which appeared to have run the company into the ground. Four Corners had a story about this a few weeks ago.

  41. shellbell@86

    500 jobs going at transport company Cootes. Don’t know a lot of detail about the background but th


    Probably associated with their shoddy maintenance practices which saw killer vehicles operating on the road

    Media in recent days have said –

    They were in a shaky financial position anyway and had been told most of their fuel cartage contracts would not be renewed.

    They were looking at huge fines regarding the vehicle defects across much of their fleet and may have had to declare they are not in a position to continue trading?

  44. [76
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 2:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Earlier than expected announcement from Alcoa.]

    Was this fhe job losses you were referring to last week?

  46. Psephos@77

    John Kerry proved that blaming the ‘carbon tax’ for all ills is now redundant.


    He did? *looks genuinely mystified*

    When he comes out and compares Global Warming to weapons of mass destruction, and likens inaction on it to terrorism, I reckon that renders Abbotts campaign against the ‘carbon tax’ redundant, don’t you ?

  48. Psephos

    Have you read this?

    [On the other hand, we know an awful lot about conditions on Manus Island. We know, though a Freedom of Information request by Guardian Australia, that there were 110 “incidents” on Manus in just four months last year.

    We know that detention imposes crippling mental health impacts on those locked up in limbo. We know that the jail on Manus is manifestly inadequate, with substandard accommodation, sanitation and water supplies.

    We know that the Australian government has set lower standards for Manus than for detention centres on Australian soil. We know that the firm contracted to manage and run the centre, G4S, has a notorious record for lax safety regimes and rampant profiteering.]

    https://newmatilda.com//2014/02/18/how-much-longer-will-madness-continue

  49. [When he comes out and compares Global Warming to weapons of mass destruction, and likens inaction on it to terrorism, I reckon that renders Abbotts campaign against the ‘carbon tax’ redundant, don’t you ?]

    Um, no.

  50. AEC ‏@AusElectoralCom 46s

    AEC acknowledges the decision today by His Honour Justice Hayne sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. Statement – http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2014/02-18.htm …

    ABC Promotes Nielsen poll to the high heavens:

    Retweeted by Michael Janda
    Mark Scott ‏@mscott 7h

    ABC ‘strongly supported’ by the public in new Fairfax/Nielsen poll http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/investigate-claims-of-burns-say-voters-20140217-32wfv.html …

Comments Page 2 of 33
1 2 3 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *