Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 33
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  1. Psephos:

    [1. You’re kidding, right? This issue is toxic for Labor. And which government was it that sent these people to Manus?]

    Irrelevant. The incident happened on Morrison’s watch.

  5. Psephos@99

    When he comes out and compares Global Warming to weapons of mass destruction, and likens inaction on it to terrorism, I reckon that renders Abbotts campaign against the ‘carbon tax’ redundant, don’t you ?


    Um, no.

    So, despite the yanks now pretty much publicly telling the world that action on CC is needed and that denialists should simply get out of the way , you don’t think Abbotts campaign on denialism makes us look increasingly isolated?
    Oh…kay…

  6. [Coalition Party originally opened PNG.]

    I didn’t ask that, I asked who sent these particular people to Manus, and who concluded the current agreement with PNG about how they would be policed there. The answer to both questions is Kevin Rudd. The Rudd government adopted this policy knowing full well that there would be the usual series of riots, fires, roof-occupations, lip-sewing, suicide threats, self-mutilation etc etc that is seen at every detention centre when people who have paid up to $20,000 for an Australian visa finally realise they are not going to get one.

  9. I will post this again from previous page

    [On the other hand, we know an awful lot about conditions on Manus Island. We know, though a Freedom of Information request by Guardian Australia, that there were 110 “incidents” on Manus in just four months last year.

    We know that detention imposes crippling mental health impacts on those locked up in limbo. We know that the jail on Manus is manifestly inadequate, with substandard accommodation, sanitation and water supplies.

    We know that the Australian government has set lower standards for Manus than for detention centres on Australian soil. We know that the firm contracted to manage and run the centre, G4S, has a notorious record for lax safety regimes and rampant profiteering.]

    https://newmatilda.com//2014/02/18/how-much-longer-will-madness-continue

  10. Bad press aside, I doubt many in Labor’s ranks will be shedding tears for Craig Thomson. Another selfish twit who has done more damage to his party’s brand than the Coalition could ever hope to.

    Interesting result from the continually mystifying Essential. Hope this actually means something and isn’t just part of a delay in keeping up with the general trend.

  13. All Hockey, parading in front of the cameras today in his patent Frank Nitti suit, could say about the Alcoa closures was that there are thousands of small businesses who could have done with the 40 million dollars that the Labor government “wasted” on Alcoa.
    He went on to say jobs go and jobs come. Things WILL get better he said.
    Great performance Joe!

  15. Psephos:

    [The answer to both questions is Kevin Rudd. The Rudd government adopted this policy knowing full well that there would be the usual series of riots, fires, roof-occupations, lip-sewing, suicide threats, self-mutilation etc etc ]

    Bullbutter. The new government also must have known this. They continued the policy. What corrective action did they take to prevent the riots, fires, etc?

  16. Seems the WA Gov gets to issue writs, at his discretion? The WA Govts or Feds?

    [In accordance with the Australian Constitution and the requirements of the Western Australian Election of Senators Act 1903, an election of six senators for Western Australia would occur once a writ has been issued by His Excellency Mr Malcolm McCusker AC CVO QC, the Governor of Western Australia. A writ outlines all the key timings for the election including the dates for the close of the electoral roll, candidate nominations and for election day.]

  17. It seems to me that the abbott opposition and now government have mastered the ability to remaining on slogan (it’s not even a message – it’s a barrage of slogans to stop answering questions) even when they have been shown to be wrong. Abbott, Hockey, Morriscum and Hunt all seem to enjoy being in a truth-free zone where you just repeat the same shit and know over 50% of the media will not only swallow it, but cheer you on. Will they come unstuck? My sense is they have realised the attention span and media sources of the bogan voting bloc they are after, and are pitch perfect in dumbing/cretinising things down. they avoid any scrutiny and decry any scrutiny as ‘elitist left wing bias’. My fear is it is going to work for them.

    For years Labor defended compulsory voting figuring the factory working class were going to vote for them, but this working class no longer exists. I know of several ex-factory workers and now very welfare dependent/u nemployable people who now vote for minor right wing parties before picking liberal ahead of labor because they read the herald sun, watch commercial news, and believe boat people are swamping the country, the carbon tax hurt them and labor and ‘elites’ somehow are the cause of them being near the bottom of the pile. They hate labor as ‘hopeless’ and the greens as communists becaase they get this daily in their media. If they didn’t need to vote they wouldn’t.

    I think a bit of market research would show compulsory voting no longer goes in labor’s favour – should labor and the greens should push for a lowering of the voting age to 16 and allow voluntary voting? what do you think William of Psephos – would voluntary voting help or hinder the progressive cause? I guess the risk is that fundamentalist christian groups will get out and vote.

    the right wing craziness of the ‘culture wars’ promoted by murdoch is scary and powerful stuff.

    Labor needs to remind Australian’s of their proud tradition of having a finely tuned bullshit detector, and start calling their opponents on this. The message “Australian’s are smart people – they can see through abbott’s lies” might appeal to the old ‘battler’ class, who basically know they are losing, but are currently blaming labor rather than the party that wishes to do them greatest harm.

  22. BK:

    [All Hockey, parading in front of the cameras today in his patent Frank Nitti suit, could say about the Alcoa closures was that there are thousands of small businesses who could have done with the 40 million dollars that the Labor government “wasted” on Alcoa.]

    He’ll give it to Gina Rinehart instead. Now there’s a worthy cause!

  23. kakuru@101

    Psephos:

    1. You’re kidding, right? This issue is toxic for Labor. And which government was it that sent these people to Manus?


    Irrelevant. The incident happened on Morrison’s watch.

    I will be amazed if abbott gets much flack on this, even for it being on his watch.

    We don’t much of what went on yet and may not ever know the full details, yet it looks like there has been bad blood brewing for sometime between the AS/ Manus Islanders and or PNG Police/ Riot Squad or mobile squad that its now called.

    PNG newspapers may tell us more tomorrow, but if the AS thought they could cross or push around Papaua New Guineas in their own country they were always in for a hiding or worse.

    Most Australian voters just want the issue dealt with and I’ll be surprised at any real backlash.

  24. The Abbott slogan for drought relief was called a joke by the Qld Cattleman’s Assn.

    They told him to get off his backside and do somthing, like he should of done months ago.

    The do nothing tag is starting to stick after less than 6 months.

  25. Thomson was already found guilty by the general population via the media.

    The media may like to make hay, but, imo, Thomson is well past saturation point.

    Punishment will be served and he’ll disappear into the ether.

  27. [Bullbutter. The new government also must have known this. They continued the policy. What corrective action did they take to prevent the riots, fires, etc?]

    None, of course. The whole point of sending people to Manus is to deter people trying to come to Australia by boat. It can only be an effective deterrent if word goes back up the migration chain that trying to get to Australia is a waste of $20,000 because all you will get is to be stuck in a nasty detention centre in PNG, so you’re better off trying Sweden. That was Rudd’s (eventual) policy and all Abbott has done is continue it. And it seems to be working. The public can see that and will give Abbott the credit.

  29. We have one person dead, 77 injured, two on the way to Australia (one with gunshot wounds) and Morrison says he was aware of increasing tensions on Manus.

    What happens tomorrow?

  30. @Psephos/127

    No it was deter them to stop dying at Sea, now they are dying in Detention Centers.

    “We can help stop people dying at sea”.
    “We’re talking about lives being lost at sea”.

    etc

  31. YESIREE – Hartcher wrote half a page on what Kerry said about climate change and didn’t once mention that our PM is the denier in chief and direct action is a load of cobblers.

  32. [129
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 2:47 pm | PERMALINK
    We have one person dead, 77 injured, two on the way to Australia (one with gunshot wounds) and Morrison says he was aware of increasing tensions on Manus.

    What happens tomorrow?]

    A new poll will be conducted showing support for the Abbott govt soaring to record heights

  33. dave:

    [I will be amazed if abbott gets much flack on this, even for it being on his watch.]

    Of course he won’t. Unless he was the one holding a machete (and even then he’d get the benefit of the doubt).

    But it’s no point blaming Rudd/Labor for this incident, as some have claimed.

  34. ruawake@129

    We have one person dead, 77 injured, two on the way to Australia (one with gunshot wounds) and Morrison says he was aware of increasing tensions on Manus.

    What happens tomorrow?

    I blame Julia for implementing Carbon Pricing, you know it makes sense.

  36. K07:

    [YESIREE – Hartcher wrote half a page on what Kerry said about climate change and didn’t once mention that our PM is the denier in chief and direct action is a load of cobblers.]

    Hard to believe that Fairfax is in terminal decline, isn’t it?

  39. Most people in PNG and Australia will blame the AS, having seen similar stuff for years.

    They are seen as people who think this sort stuff will change their outcomes when it won’t.

  40. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@131

    YESIREE – Hartcher wrote half a page on what Kerry said about climate change and didn’t once mention that our PM is the denier in chief and direct action is a load of cobblers.

    He didn’t need to mention Abbott.
    He did mention that Deniers should simply get out of the way, however, as well as call for action on CC.
    It’s pretty clear that Abbott is a denier, and that “direct action” is rubbish.
    From Kerrys comments, it’s clear that the US is moving towards Carbon Pricing, and that Abbotts stance is becoming increasingly untenable.

  41. [No, it was to PREVENT them dying at sea, and to DETER them from coming at all.]

    That sounds like sophistry. A person is still dead.

  42. [All the other polls have gone away from Labor, but Essential was 50/50 now gone 51/49 in Labor’s favour]

    The obvious explanation is that Essential has some technical issue which makes it slow to pick up trends. It was slow to pick up the swing to Labor in November-December, and now it’s slow to pick up the swing back to the Libs in January.

  43. [138
    Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 2:56 pm | PERMALINK
    A new poll will be conducted showing support for the Abbott govt soaring to record heights

    I’m glad *someone* here grasps that point.]

    What I am grasping is that Australia is becoming one sick society

  44. dave – thanks and please expand on your criticism. Do you disagree that most corporates operate ethically and that many of them do so predominantly due to cultural reasons?

    Sure there are ratbags, many, I have witnessed and heard second hand stories of shockers, and there are plenty of studies that psychopaths are attracted to those jobs, but regardless my point was that a tipping point could be reached where they become the norm and out of reach of regulators, police and policy makers.

  48. The difference with the people on Manus is they were just told they would be setlled in PNG, the Rudd policy was PNG or a 3rd Country.

    Morrison says his policy is the same as agreed with Peter O’Neill by Rudd. It isn’t and this is why the riots occurred.

    The only way for people on Manus to get resettled is to spend 8 years in detention. This is the only criteria for PNG residence .

    I assume Bishop is grovelling to Fiji to find a solution, but they don’t want immigrants even more than Australia.

  49. [Drownings make it better? That’s pathetic.]

    Psephos’ attitude is sick-making. The sea is an inanimate object; a detention centre is made by humans, and run by humans. When a death happens, an explanation is required.

  50. victoria 74
    I was aware of Newmans plight in his seat, more curious to ponder the possibility of a plunge in primary for the LNP in QLD to the point of no return.

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