Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 29
1 … 5 6 7 … 29

  3. Ausdavo

    Commercial property rental is diabolic.

    As a ‘manager’ in the APS I had a look at our rental ‘out-goings’ once, after the big C’wlth office buildings sell-off courtesy of Peter Costelloe.

    Checking out the bills associated with a worker turning up in the Office on a Saturday arvo and turning on the A/C the thought that we’d be better off paying them an allowance to stay at home occurred.

  4. Morning

    While i was expecting a swing back to the coalition, this does seem rather big. As mentioned by bug, the big shift in Qld is interesting

    In any case, as i mentioned recently, the school kids bonus was paid into accounts, and a letter was received by eligible families (approx 2 million) re the new dental scheme which gives each child under 18 years, $1,000 dental coverage over a two year period. This policy initiative occurred under the Gillard govt as a result of fhe scrapping of fhe health fund rebate for high income earners.
    Add to that the union corruption saga now hanging over Labor’s head, and fhe boats issue, the trend back to the coalition was inevitable.
    This is despite bad news on the jobs front. Of course, the effect of job losses is yet to be felt in the economy.
    My concern at the moment rests primarily how Labor is going to handle the RC into Unions. They had better have a decent strategy.

  5. Selling Medibank will not fix a budget deficit, it will only reduce the debt.

    Also if you want to see vigorous reaction to the free trade TPP thing, listen to the Right and 2GB. Maybe Shorten needs to strengthen the language against the TPP and get people talking against Abbott that way.

  6. I hope John Kerry repeats what he said in Indonesia in Australia.

    [[Kerry) mocked those who deny its existence or question its causes, comparing them to people who insist the Earth is flat.]

  8. Morning all, and thanks BK. This is the first I had seenof this poll, which I find surprising. Certainly it is better than Abbott deserves. Obviously not the result Shorten would be hoping for.

    As a fan of Occam’s razor I do not favor over complicated explanations. There have been two things that have stood out for me since the last Neilsen (apart from Mitch 🙂 ). The first is oviously damaging stories about unions. The question about The second the royal comission confirms that. The second is Shorten’s very low profile. He does not have to say too much, but he does need to be seen.

    Union officials who are bad at maths (is that all of them?) should note that the car industry has made littel difference. It is emotional but also trivial to our overall economy, as I have said before. Less than five percent of manufacturing employment, let alone total jobs, is tied up in making cars. You will not win an election on that.

  9. A straw poll of my Twitter feed is grossly at odds with the Neilsen poll. It has Tony Abbott’s disapproval rating falling to 90%.

    And just a FYI, I am on the Neilsen television/media panel, and they have just changed their demographic collection model. Rather than an annual 20-30 minute phone call, they have sent an extensive booklet to complete. Mostly the same questions, with a stronger interest in how many tablets and mobile phones being used. Guess they are saving on staff costs?

  10. Bug

    I thought the last Neilsen has Qld ALP ridiculously high and was a rogue. This one may have gone too far the other way.

    On balance it seems pretty believable.

    While anyone with a shred of understanding realises that Abbott/Morrison battle with the Indonesians is stupid, many in voter land see it as a good thing. There is real fear of Indonesia, especially amongst older people. Just 20 years ago Indonesia was seen as a military threat. Hardly surprising that tough talk wins the voters over.

  11. poroti

    I heard excerpt of John Kerry on radio news break this morning.

    You would hope that comments like this would wake this country up from its stupor, but i still feel we are sleeping walking

  14. Sprocket

    Mailed out questionnaires are not cheaper as they have to have the answers entered. Some argue they are more reliable, but it depends on the size of the booklet (too big discourages). Bye.

  16. Good Morning

    Things will change with this Neilsen result to better results ahead for Labor.

    Neilsen is the odd one out at the moment of course.

    The only conclusion I can reach even so is that I was wrong on the public perception of corruption versus job security.

    Apparently losing industries is a vote winner.

  18. guytaur

    Abbott knows it is political gold for him to pursue a RC into union corruption. It is a win win for him, the taxpayer foots the bill, and team Labor get a public thrashing.

    As i have said many times, Labor knew this was coming. My only hope is that they have a decent plan in place to combat the assault. And all the silly talk on this blog about Shorten as leader being an issue, have rocks in their head. Shorten was preferred as leader by the caucus for a very good reason. Albo would be the worst choice especially with this RC looming

  19. Victoria

    I do NOT want to get into Leadershit stuff. Shorten is the leader until he chooses to resign. I do not agree he was the best choice and feel sure that Albo because he does not have union ties would NOT have been tainted with the RC stuff. Mind you Peta and co would have just found a different line of attack.

    Now personally I favour passion and commitment over calm, hence I much prefer Albo. The ONLY issue for the ALP caucus is that it seems the voters do too.

    I do not think Shorten can win the election for Labor (probably not Albo either).

    I actually think the RC may be good for Labor and if they could break the union nexus it MIGHT result in a decent party. On the other hand the ALP may just become a version US democrats, who mostly are to the right of the current LNP.

    For the ALP the most concerning thing about Neilsen is the steady rise in Greens support amongst younger voters. In this demographic they are starting to rival Labor (both with a 2 in front of their figures.

  20. victoria

    Yes I do agree. However this Nielsen is out of kilter with the other polls.

    Also international events are intruding on Abbott and I think the G20 is going to be a poison chalice for Abbott.

    Our fawning press gallery will learn how out of step they are on covering economics and climate change to name a few.

    John Kerry has just ramped up with his statements on climate change. The only restraint was not using the phrase “war on climate change”

    So I do expect the being “tough” thing is going to fall apart rapidly for Abbott as son as reality intrudes on the myth making. The only question is how quickly that happens? The answer to that question will determine one or two terms for Abbott.

  21. guytaur

    The deterioriating relationship with Indonesia is not in our National interest whatsoever. This needs to be sorted. I dont yet understand whether Abbott and Co fully appreciate this, or simply dont care.

  22. The Australian people are masochists who lack compassion. I will continue to warn my international students about Australia’s racist society.

  25. Victoria

    Yes with the powers of the region in town this may become clear to the Australian people.

    Same blindness as with climate change. Its going to be interesting how Abbott responds to Kerry calling it as dangerous to national security as terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

  26. ruawake #16 “I bet I will hear this poll on ABC Radio news in the morning, they ignored Newspoll.”

    My reaction too – and yes – ABC Breakfast, the first poll on that rubbish transmission that pushes itself as ‘news’ since Sep13. And didn’t they harp on about it – and we’ll go over to our Canberra correspondent to talk about leadership and preferred PM figures .. blah blah

    Not a squeak when the previous pols we’re released.

    It’s a shame – the ABC could do it’s job or could do LNP appeasement – it matters not either way, they will be clipped.

  27. dtt

    Shorten is the leader of the ALP. I support team Labor, and therefore the leader.

    I am not interested in engaging in leadership talk. It is what stuffed up Labor last time around.

    For those who do support team Labor, I would suggest they simply stfu and concentrate on who the real enemy is

  29. As I remarked yesterday, I went along to a Greek Orthodox baptism yesterday. When I asked about protocols, BK suggested I avoid giggling. That was harder than I thought it would be.

    On the positive side, the historian in me liked a real-life experience of what a feature of the ancient world might have been like. The church was bedecked with iconography reminiscent of the Middle Ages and in some cases, earlier. Some of it was Dadaesque, in that the fingers on the saints and Jesus were distended and contorted, much as one might see in a movie about aliens. One of the images appeared to be of “Mary” holding young Jesus on her lap. Young Jesus seemed to be of an indeterminate age between perhaps 6 and 10, but severely malnourished and possibly suffering from some sort of muscular dystrophy or paralysis, with his head resting on his right shoulder. In another image “Mary” was cradling him as an infant but his body wasn’t visible — possibly obscured beneath her garments — with just his head protruding from the intersection of her massive forearm and upper arm. Baby Jesus looked less human than Romulan — with a nasty scowl and ripples across his forehead.

    At the front of the church was a table bearing an image of a dead Jesus mounted in a prone position on a wooden stand. Apparently this was some sort of Easter talisman — children could go under the table for good luck.

    As the ceremony started people filed into the church lighting thin candles, applying holy water, and making elaborate religious gestures. Many of them passed by the iconic images and reliefs at the back either kissing them or affecting to do so. Some went the full smooch but others were more demure. One older woman simply leant forward and touched the image with the tip of her nose. Another settled for air kisses. I wondered what they thought “god” would make of it all or if that were a question that was even germane.

    The demeanour of the child who was the ostensible beneficiary of this rather eccentric mediaeval procedure varied throughout between bemused, irritated, troubled, and inconsolably distressed. That her godfather, who held her before the priest renounced Satan six times (the number of the beast) and then mock spat at the ground plainly made no difference nor even that he swore three times (the trinity of course) that he had joined with Christ. Her mother and even her father were out of sight, and now her clothing was being removed by the godfather so that she could have water splashed all over while all manner if weird chanting took place. Naturally, the whole thing was vide-recorded for posterity. I suppose it’s a moment of which she’ll want to be reminded. Then bring on the swinging smoke producers and more imprecations in Greek about telling Satan to keep his hands off — which seemed ironic in the circumstances and in we went — the child now weeping piteously and others in the congregation going out in sympathy.

    Next thing you know she has a bonnet on with a peak on it that looked suspiciously like KKK head gear and a room full of ostensibly 21st century people were lining up to kiss the hand of the priest and kiss the chid. She loved that. Not.

    I must confess that by this time I saw little to giggle about. The ceremony involved a child — entailed one really — but it was not substantively about the child or her needs. It was entirely for the benefit of the adults in the room and so far as they endorsed the procedure, their fears and angst. I observed to one of the guests, a younger woman from upstate New York who was a colleague of hubby’s that “in some contexts watching a middle-aged man disrobe a small child before a priest and hundreds of people, some of whom were video-recording it would be … err … odd”. She shifted about uncomfortably.

    Yes, I can definitely say that yesterday’s proceeding was one of the weirder things in which I’ve agreed to participate. With hindsight, I probably should have given it a miss.

  31. victoria

    My attempt to get CPG to ask.

    Canberra Press Gallery who is right? Abbott or John Kerry? Is Climate Change as dangerous a national security threat as terrorism? #auspoI

  34. Fran wrote…

    …reminded within 4 seconds about why I’ve steered clear of her vacuous and derivative commentary for the last 2 years.

    coming up the PM arrives in Broken Hill, breaking the drought it seems …

    It’s just soooo easy to let a line of patter like “Abbott breaks drought” through. It’s become a standing quip right through the media, so hungry are they for an easy way out of any story.

    Q&A specializes in this kind of barracking, where serious subjects are reduced to a clever quip, an audience cheer or a pop-up tweet. The word “chatterati” comes to mind.

    TV interviews are judged on how “hard-hitting” they are, the harder and nastier the better.

    Why elicit information when you can score an easy point by embarrassing someone, interrupting them or putting a tabloid newspaper’s point of view to them to see how they squirm?

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see someone like Leigh Sales – she of the famous “Young reporters can make their bones from gaffes and shoe malfunctions” – ask Bill Shorten straight out how he responds to public perceptions that Tony Abbott broke the drought, or to declare Climate Change a dead political issue because of a single day of heavy rain in the Outback.

    They just don’t care about issues. They only care about coming out on top. And it seems the public don’t much care either. They want gladitorial combat with “winners” and “losers” from every interaction.

    They get it with The Biggest Loser, My Kitchen rules (whose latest effort is, we are told, “an unmissable episode”), “So You Think You Can Dance” and all the rest.

    All of them, including political reportage too, are “Goodies” versus “Baddies”, “My Side” versus “Your Side”, Labor versus Liberal, replete and complete with phoney drama, manufactured tension, ersatz dilemmas and time-based suspense, whether the “time” factor is a looming commercial break or a pre-booked interview duration.

    Today’s “topic” is “Tony Abbott breaks drought”. I’ve heard it at least a dozen times already, half of those on the ABC. I’d warrant that none of the talking heads is foolish enough to believe Abbott’s mere presence actually did break the drought (and of course it’s not broken, but that fantasy is part of the joke), but then again, these are the same people who believe a broken high-heel shoe can literally bring down a government, or the size of a Prime Ministerial arse can win or lose an election.

    Hey, these are the same people who want us to accept that Tony Abbott has become “a statesman” overnight because he changed his hair style, speaks a little softer, and doesn’t go around actually punching holes in walls anymore (that anyone hears about, anyway). They’re not allowed to question that proposition because if they do they’ll be accused of being biased, unpatriotic or overpaid… and that’s just in public. Behind closed doors the threats would be rather more specific. In any case, it’s just not part of the groupthink to disagree.

    Journalists are obsessed with metaphors and easy fixes. If they decide that Tony Abbott, statesman, broke the drought, and that Climate Change is an old story, they’ll push it for all it’s worth. Bonus points if they can make themselves the story, not some passing talking point about $7 billion worth of drought relief, or piss talk about ten thousand job losses.

    That way they can all knock off early, and go to the pub with the rest of the gaggle, there to dream up the next fantasy issue, invent the next metaphor or work out tomorrow’s gotcha lines among themselves.

  35. Not sure if Michael Pasoce is quoting Abbott, or his own words in this tweet

    [One more time for the PM: drought is not a natural disaster – it’s part of our climate. Always has been.]

  36. victoria

    I think its a Chinese Water Approach with the Gallery. When they get a buildup they cannot ignore they will then ask a question with negative consequences for Abbott

  39. Abbott is commissioning two Royal Commissions, both for political gain.

    Gillard commissioned one Royal Commission – to benefit children and identify child abuse

  45. victoria

    Glad you not holding your breath. I agree they are useless. When Labor gets back in the Gallery should be replaced with a system where access is by something like Skype.

    With online you can do the background deep research and interviews without setting foot in Canberra.

    The only thing that yu cannot do is the personal networking. I think of course the personal networking is the problem. Gives rise to the Gallery thinking its a privileged club with Inside knowledge and that outsiders know nothing.

  47. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk · Feb 11

    If unions are to blame for the companies leaving Australia or going bust, are they also to blame for those making lots of money & expanding?

Comments Page 6 of 29
1 … 5 6 7 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *