GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.
UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.
UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.
[Unions are important organizations, I have no problems with the concept of labour organizing itself for collective action etc. But as a political junkie who can’t stand to see the anti-science conservative direction the country is taking, I cannot forgive the fact that one of our two major parties has shackled itself to the union movement such that the ALP bleeds support every time any member of the union movement does something wrong.
It’s not sustainable, and if we are relying on an alternative viable political voice into the future, it can’t be one that is hostage to the good behaviour and public reputation of the unions.]
This. I have always been and remain a strong supporter of organised labour, especially for the bottom half of the workforce. But the union influence on Labor is way out of proportion. I don’t want them to completely ditch the unions, just cut them back to size. The union influence must be proportional to the percentage of the working age population who are union members. The unions have to continually earn their influence, not ride on their historical laurels, no matter how worthy.
@CC/200
TPP has nothing to do with the so called lefties, it is a fact that TPP is just more than Trade.
And the Trade they speak of the benefits have been oversold as per Productivity Commission has said.
If it was not bad, why hide it?
zoidy @202 – Trade Negotiations, as with most other commercial and political negotiations, are not done in public.
End
of
discussion.
@CC/203
Running away, the fact that you are not advocating for public consumption to allow us to see all the facts is pathetic.
Anyone who believes that the ALP can survive without Union money are deluded.
Anyone who believes that Unions will keep funding the ALP to the current levels and accept reduced influence are deluded.
The ALP was set up by the Unions to represent the Unions – that has not changed. Despite some window dressing – Unions control the Committees and Appointments that run the ALP – that will not change.
@CC/205
And who controls Coalition Party?
Multi National companies?
Zoidy The voters aren’t as concerned by muliti-nationals as they are by the alleged behavior of the unions.
@CC/207
That’s because they haven’t had the same air-time as unions.
I mean MB 🙂
Zoidy
The business community receives plenty of media coverage.
Members control the LNP. Delegates to conferences and Appointment holders are there based on the votes of the party members. Preselections are generally based on the local party – which isn’t perfect as we learnt once again last Federal Election. Compare that to the ALP where the Unions have a set number of delegates and committee memberships – not voted for by the members. And you have to be a member of a Union to join the ALP and can’t be a member of another party. LNP places no unreasonable restrictions on membership.
Australian companies don’t have a say in the running of the LNP let alone Multinational companies. And the Lay Party has zero power over the Parliamentary Party except through preselections.
@CC/211
Oh, so we don’t need Maurice Newman?
Well we don’t need Maurice Newman but Tone does as he needs someone out of date to advise.
Business power over LNP governments is of course exercised informally rather than through the party structure. Why would Gina Rinehart bother joining the Liberal Party when she can ring up the PM and get whatever she wants? Thus the ALP is much more exposed politically to union corruption than the LNP is to business corruption.
Maurice Newman? You’ve lost me. Is that some sort of PB in joke?
CC – I don’t know if you were particularly responding to my rant. If not, this is just an extension of that rant with some explanation of my own perspective.
I personally don’t care if the ALP survives or not.
What I care about is that there are viable political parties that aren’t held hostage to particular interest groups, and get punished for feathering their own nests or truckling to vested interests.
And clearly I think this applies to the LNP as much as the ALP.
I have been forced firmly into the “ALP” side of the political ledger because there is no alternative. The LNP are anti-science short-term thinking big-business promoting buffoons. Every single thing that this government has done I have found to be a bad or wrong direction.
But while I cannot support the LNP at the moment (or the last 5 years or so), I’m not inherently aligned with the ALP.
If there were another centrist party that had a chance of winning seats and that promoted a pro-rationalism moderate agenda I would be voting for and barracking for (and potentially joining) that party in a heartbeat.
There are good people in the ALP. I certainly like and respect a good number of ALP MPs. I cannot say the same of the LNP. While this continues to be the case and there continue to be no good alternatives (I do send votes the Greens way depending on circumstances, but I reject the Greens as being a serious alternative for me) I will continue supporting the ALP and continue being dismayed that they cannot be a better party and that they are blown in the winds by things apparently outside of their control – like union behaviour or resolving their leadership.
So, as far as it goes:
I consider that irrelevant. If the ALP doesn’t evolve into a different party, then what you say is true. That doesn’t mean that there can’t or shouldn’t be other viable parties that are not union-oriented, and that they wouldn’t be able to find funding sources. I’m sure that there are a bunch of individuals and businesses that donate to the LNP because they aren’t the ALP rather than because they like what the modern LNP is.
I do realize that looking for a “saviour” in the form of some new party, presumably launched by some charismatic leader, is wishful thinking. That doesn’t stop me being profoundly depressed at the current sorry state of Australian politics and what I can see as being its even worse future.
The funny side to this is who ever is in government in many cases will maintain an open door to all stakeholders, i recall walking into a Victorian ALP minister’s Office and sitting in the waiting area to met the minister was non other than Ron Walker.
O crank have you listened to Maurice’s speeches, some of his views are somewhat out of date.
@MB/219
Ancient more preferable.
Businesses think they can stick to standard practices in a technology world.
mexicanbeemer @218 – most of the partisans who post here have no idea or experience of how either Parliamentary Politics or Government at the Ministerial level actually works. They seem to think The West Wing is close to reality.
I haven’t been on here in about four years, but I’ve been reading a few of the comment threads lately and felt like piping up.
On Shorten:
I think most of y’all are too harsh on him by far. In my book, he communicates really well and his messaging is better than the previous government. That he’s doing even this well at this stage of the game is incredible compared to where people expected Labor would be.
As much as it horrifies me, I agree entirely with Psephos about the cause of Shorten’s recent problems: his theory that whenever refugees gets in the news for whatever reason, the Liberals and Greens benefit and Labor tanks keeps getting borne out time and time again. I still think our treatment of refugees will be seen by history with the same moral abhorrence we now look at the White Australia Policy, but the political reality is what it is.
I also don’t understand the Albo worship. Albo is basically 1990s-era John Brumby reborn – good bloke, good attack dog – who the average voter sees as your usual carping opposition leader and tunes right out. I started the leadership contest strongly hoping for an Albanese victory and finished it thrilled that Shorten won, and nothing since has changed my mind.
On the union Royal Commission:
I don’t see it turning up much of note, apart from maybe giving the undeserved survivors of the HSU inquiries a good kicking. There hasn’t been a union-related Royal Commission that hasn’t been a total waste of space since the Painters and Dockers, and even with an ideologue like Heydon at the helm I can’t see this being much different.
[most of the partisans who post here have no idea or experience of how either Parliamentary Politics or Government at the Ministerial level actually works. ]
Speak for yourself.
mb – I’ve seen some reports of some of his speeches. Not sure how that’s got much to do with the Lay LNP – which is a diverse mix of individuals beholden to no one.
Psephos – there are a couple, such as yourself, who demonstrate by their pragmatic approach, that they understand the realities.
Liberals spend more money they found, on themselves.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/social-media-trawled-as-government-spends-43-million-on-research-contracts-20140215-32snf.html
@CC/224
MB is abit more impartial than you are CC.
zoidy @226 Let they who are free of sin cast the first stone.
Of course ALP governments have close relations with business leaders. We live in a capitalist economy and they have no choice. To put it in marxist terms, Labor is a party of class collaboration. It seeks to better the lot of the workers and the poor by co-operation with business, and usually business does co-operate, up to a point. The Liberals on the other hand rarely seek to work co-operatively with the unions. They are a party of class warfare. The seek to improve the profitability of business and the prosperity of the shareholding class by driving down wages and the standard of living of the workers. In this they reflect the prejudices of their small-business base, because small business hates and fears unions much more than big business does.
I would have thought this was all pretty elementary stuff.
This on the front page of ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-16/mass-breakout-reported-from-manus-island-detention-centre/5263324
“Dr Otto Numan from the Manus Island hospital says health workers at the naval base where the detention centre is located have confirmed an escape has taken place.”
I did say this will happen, and has happened previously under Coalition Party Government, these will cost Tax Payer money.
Psephos well put, The ALP ministers that i have seen come across as more open to engaging with those that could be viewed as not agreeing with them whereas i have not been around as many Liberal ministers but they do seem less willing to engage with those that they disagree with.
And its very true small business seems unable or unwilling to work with unions yet big business seems more willing to do so, i suspect this is due to larger business being more team based and about stakeholder engagement something which small business doesn’t get.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-school-security-guards-are-provided-by-the-taxpayer-20140215-32snt.html
More spending, while ALP introduced it, Coalition will continue it:
“In the budget, the Coalition will expand the program to allow schools to spend the funding on private security guards, making good on last year’s election promise.”
So where the cuts coming from Joe?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/for-sale-medibank-readied-for-4b-float-20140211-32g3d.html
Quietly selling Medibank, while introducing $6 GP fee.
[And its very true small business seems unable or unwilling to work with unions yet big business seems more willing to do so, i suspect this is due to larger business being more team based and about stakeholder engagement something which small business doesn’t get.]
Senior management in big business rarely deal directly with workers or unions. They have professional IR staff to do that. Small businesspeople hire and fire their own staff, and they have an essentially feudal attitude to them. They expect staff to be their personal servants and show fealty to them. So they intensely dislike unions, which disrupt that feudal relationship. Also most small businesses operate on very small profit margins (which is why most of them go bust eventually), so wages and conditions are a matter of commercial life and death to them, which is rarely the case for big business. Most Liberal MPs come from the small business class and this explains their attitudes. Compare Howard, son of a service-station owner, who perfectly reflected small-business attitudes, with the patrician Turnbull and his lack of interest in the class struggle against the unions.
Oh and at #234 has ties to Former Liberal members, earning tax payer doe, Newgate Communications.
Why is Coalition selling Medibank when it’s making profit?
Because the Government believes Medibank Private will be an attractive investment and will achieve a good price which will apparently go towards fixing the budget deficit.
Medibank made $315 million in 2013, the contract for Newgate is $211 million!
Remaining profit is $104 million by end of the contract in 5 months time (June 30th).
Absolutely PATHETIC.
@MB/238
Analysis say Medibank worth $4 billion, our carriers paid $2 billion for spectrum (if I remember correctly).
ZL @ 237
Because their drive to ‘fix’ the budget deficit has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility, but rather as a method to increase the power of the upper class, at the expense of those who are below them.
The people purchasing the vast majority of medibank private will be those with close ties to the existing private health market, and the value of their stake will increase the moment that their is no longer a soft cap on the price of their goods in the form of government-subsidised competition.
Their is no short or long-term benefit to the overwhelming majority of Australia through its sale, its just the coalition giving back to those who funded their campaign.
4:30 in the morning and TV has Dr Fiona Wood and John Bertrand … heavy stuff.
CTar1 242
5th time on my Tv before remoting,think 24/7 is a joke,that is not the only 5th repeat
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny goes to town on the Nielsen poll.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-bounces-back-as-union-woes-hit-bill-shorten-in-latest-poll-20140216-32tzn.html
“Kid glove” treatment in Manus backfires. Wait for the sounds of silence.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-riot-on-manus-island-20140216-32ucz.html
How money talks.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/rise-in-sugary-drinks-is-really-a-fall-says-study-funded-by-beverages-australia-20140216-32tr5.html
What does this say?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salvation-army-draws-ire-over-award-to-accused-child-abuser-20140216-32tz2.html
A professor of health policy has his say about Fiona Nash.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nash-fails-in-smoking-alcohol-and-now-food-labelling-20140216-32ttr.html
Nash is going to stay under attack for some time.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-labor-greens-to-pursue-senator-on-food-rating-system-fallout-20140216-32tzp.html
Then the navy must have been extraordinarily incompetent. Over to you Minister Nobody!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/16/orrison-dismisses-claims–navy-indonesian-deliberately
Sinodinis about to give the spivs and shysters in the financial planning industry the green light.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/arthur-sinodinos-warned-of-chaos-if-he-changes-financial-planning-laws-20140216-32tuw.html
As chairman of the next G20 meeting Abbott can lecture Kerry all about it.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/16/john-kerry-to-make-clarion-call-for-more-action-on-climate-change
And now the “operational matters” disease strikes NBNCo.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-co-blocks-foi-request-reputations-at-stake-20140216-32ttz.html
Section 2 . . .
Ross Gittins tells Hockey to be careful.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/joe-hockey-risks-scaring-off-consumers-20140216-32ttn.html
This is an interesting point of law. I’d hate to have been a juror there. And how about the remedy from the judge!!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mark-standen-appeal-says-trial-was-unfair-due-to-jurys-low-morale-20140216-32tyx.html
Alan Moir laments the handicapping of judicial discretion.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
A funny little one from Matt Golding.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html
Pat Campbell takes Abbott to the jobs ski jump.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe on the Syrian peace talks.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
And from the Land of the Free –
The perils of privatisation.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/16/rise-private-prisons-united-states/
These Repug front runners are quite strange.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/16/jesus-got-jindal/
Ha bloody ha!
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/fox-pundits-complain-banning-their
There is no hope!!!!
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/missouri-congressman-wants-parents-be
Bill Maher has some funny fake Obamacare ads.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/16/bill-maher-fake-ads-obama_n_4798900.html
As a small business proprietor I don’t have any problem with the wages of employees. Good wages get spent in shops like mine. Poor wages means less for them to spend.
The killer for me is rental increases which bear no relationship to changing circumstances. In the shopping centre I’m in, each business (except Woolworths) pay a set 3% to 5% per annum increase regardless of inflation (mine is currently 4%). Simple maths tells you how quickly this gets to the stage of the absurd.
The government valuer looks at rental yield to determine the property value – there has also been some spending by the property owner to provide 10% extra revenue.
Next the rates go up as the council only go on value. Our outgoings have increased faster than our rental increase and are 20% on top of rent.
The property owner has a property now worth $20 million ($4 million 10 years ago.)
So basically much bigger capitalists – centre owners and Woolworths are the two wreckers for small business.
Certainly not my employees wages!
In Nielsen Nov 21-23 Poll Coalition was on 38% in Queensland,
With all the hate directed at the Queensland State Liberals, their Federal primary vote has increased from 38% in Nielsens Nov 21-23 poll to 45% now.
7% Increase in the coalition primary vote in queensland, i dont think so, i call this one a rogue.
Fumbling about as I awoke just before 6 this morning I accidentally flicked the radio to Fran Kelly on RN and was reminded within 4 seconds about why I’ve steered clear of her vacuous and derivative commentary for the last 2 years.
[coming up the PM arrives in Broken Hill, breaking the drought it seems … ]
…
I suffered a moment of weakness, but that digital radio was rubbish anyway. Its reception was often just a series of clicks, whistles and silences interrupted by occasional phrases. Can anyone suggest a good quality digital clock radio? Mine was one with “bush” in the name that I bought from BigW a couple of years back.
Ausdavo
I so ABSOLUTELY agree with you. In my brief unsuccessful venture into the world of small business, it was the rent not the wages that was the killer. Essentially the first 150 coffees per day went on rent, another 75 on electricity and maintenance. Wages were probably less than half the costs and this was a labour intensive business.
On this site, too many of the traditional labor types are phobic about small business, harking back to the battles of 1900 and the battle between business owner and the workers.
The reality is much changed. The business owner knows (or should) that kid making coffee or scrubbing the pots may be on-route to university and may be his/her next doctor, lawyer, major customer or competitor.