Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  4. Fair Go Country ‏@geeksrulz · 16m
    #Nielsen discovers new correlation between industry destruction, higher jobless and higher popularity.

  5. guytaur

    Comment beneath the article encapsulates it all

    [We need to be honest and withdraw from the Refugee Convention. That is our biggest shame – that we want to pretend something we are not.]

  7. Clive Palmer says he won’t support Sale Act changes for Qantas http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/clive-palmer-says-he-wont-support-sale-act-changes-for-qantas/story-e6frfq80-1226827995148 … #auspol #ausbiz $QAN
    9:16 AM – 17 Feb 2014
    Clive Palmer says he won’t support Sale Act changes for Qantas
    BUSINESSMAN MP Clive Palmer has dealt a crushing blow to Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s hopes of ending Qantas’ foreign ownership restrictions.

  8. [Verity Firth is going to stand for preselection in her old seat at next year’s NSW election.]

    Via the reports I heard over the weekend, there are some pre-selection contests in several Sydney seats.

    A general guide to pre-selection based on not returning to former candidates would be a good idea, IMHO.

  9. [Sinodinos (then AWH chair & Lib Treasurer): ‘No recollection individual donations’
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/awh_donated_at_farrell_private_dinners_SFSVVgPQlYebV9zkbyUUnL … ($) #auspol pic.twitter.com/xiJ4KrY797 ]

    I’m not sure which is more disappointing: the Liberal politician Barry O’Farrell taking donations from Australian Water Holdings, or the Labor politician, Eddie Obeid offering them.

    I guess it shows that when it comes to knowing on which side your bread is buttered, everything is, as they say, “above politics”… or beneath it.

    Nice bit of rough justice, though… O’Farrell going after Obeid, via ICAC.

    I guess when Irishmen like the Obeids and the O’Farrells fall out it always ends up in a bar fight.

  11. Cough.

    My son has been having troubles contacting Centrelink (between 70 and 90 minute wait times — and he has tried to register for online services but has hit a snag..).

    This morning he got through within 20 minutes, only to be told the system is down and they can’t do anything, ring back later… (no offer of a callback…)

    Last week, I emailed Cathy McGowan’s office on the issue. No response. So after this morning’s experience, I rang them.

    “Oh, the Chief of Staff deals with Centrelink issues, and she’s been in Canberra all last week, so that’s why you haven’t had a response.”

    That really isn’t good enough. Emails should be responded to by an MP within hours of receipt (certainly how we did it when I was in the Benalla office). Ordinary enquiries should ideally be dealt with on the day. The one who ‘deals’ with a particular portfolio should know what’s happened, but shouldn’t be the only one capable of responding.

    Anyway, I did a bit of polite pushing and it became obvious that the person at the other end simply didn’t know what to do. So I made a couple of suggestions.

    It occured to me that that’s one of the problems with independents (particularly those without previous political experience). Parties provide training for electorate staff. Indies don’t get that.

  13. Disappointing – the fact that the Liberal, now Senator, Sinidinos was the Chairman of the Obeid company that made the donations and he has had a memory lapse.

    I remember a former WA Premier using that defence and being well criticized in the media

  14. Could BoltA’s rant today be a hint that higher education will be the Coalition’s next target of destruction ?

    [MARXISTS murdered millions and wrecked every country they’ve led. Yet 25 years after the Berlin Wall’s fall, they still cling to power in our universities.
    Amazing. Yes, our universities are the last refuge of the Marxist]

  15. Ooops – noting that he was also the Liberal Party Treasurer at the time.

    Paid money from the company he was Chairmen of to the Party he was Treasurer of

    Double bad memory

  16. [It occured to me that that’s one of the problems with independents (particularly those without previous political experience). Parties provide training for electorate staff. Indies don’t get that.]

    Be that as it may, I have sent about five emails to Labor senators and never had a single reply so Labor is just as bad.

  17. [Mr Abbott says disaster relief payments are set to start on March 1.

    “The sort of assistance that ought to be available to people who are going through natural disaster is short-term income support, and medium-term restructuring assistance to get back on your feet,” he said.

    “They don’t want handouts, they don’t want welfare, they want to be able to get on with the job, they don’t want government to run their businesses.”]

    So “income support” and “restructuring assistance” aren’t handouts and aren’t welfare?

  18. [Paid money from the company he was Chairmen of to the Party he was Treasurer of

    Double bad memory]

    Oh, I dunno… he’d have had “people” to look after this penny-ante stuff.

    We are talking about senior business figures here, ued to dealing in millions, not petty cash.

    I mean, who’d be so stupid as to risk their entire future political career by dealing with people ICAC have been investigating, writing cheques to themselves, and then trying to cover it all up with “memory loss”, over a piddling $67,000?

    Oh, wait….

  20. [they don’t want government to run their businesses.]

    They just want government to hand out money to them to run their business.

  24. [ @PoliticsFairfax: Labor, Greens to pursue Senator Fiona Nash over food labelling website http://t.co/94JhLtWgqW ]

    Pffft… so “yesterday”.

    “Abbott breaks drought?” is today’s new “in” story. Do keep up with the groupthink.

  25. Mithrandir

    That was a Federal Court ruling. You can’t blame Labor (who it happened under) or the Liberals for it. The ATO lost the legal case.

  29. I know it was a legal case. What I find disgusting is that playing silly accounting games means you can manufacture a ‘loss’ and then use that ‘loss’ to claim deductions on the tax you pay later on. The whole thing is a rort. Its what the mining companies have been doing the last few years.

    Rich companies screwing countries. The money paid to them comes out of services for the people.

  30. BK (and Victoria)

    [Thankyou so much for the wonderful word picture of what you had to endure yesterday!]

    Not a problem. If nothing else, the ceremony gave me plenty to ponder as I sat in enforced silence, and then later at the post-baptism lunch at the St George Sailing Club.

  34. AussieAchmed@304

    Fair Go Country ‏@geeksrulz · 16m
    #Nielsen discovers new correlation between industry destruction, higher jobless and higher popularity.

    Puts the WA Senate CDR decision yet again under the spotlight.

    If Nielsen is accurate and a rerun is ordered abbott may get a better senate given this most recent poll?

    But crystal ball stuff atm and a lot can happen before any rerun if that is the CDR decision.

    If a decision is made to accept the first count – abbott gets a senate which needs a bit more work but will probably pass most of what he wants, subject to Clive getting what he wants?

    But the public don’t appear troubled by the worsening relationship with Indonesia or a PM who won’t fight for jobs ? Well maybe for his own side etc if it suits.

  35. I was obliged by my job to attend a 4 hour Aboriginal cultural appreciation session.
    The speaker informed us that the 1967 referendum:
    A. Gave Aborigines the vote
    B. Made Aborigines citizens – before which they were flora and fauna
    While I have a great deal of sympathy for the history of Australia’s indigenous I think historical accuracy is important.

    For the record Aborigines became citizens on the same day that white Australians did 26 January 1949. The right to vote may have existed in some states from 1901 but was confirmed in all territories and states except WA and SA on 26/1/49. It was affirmed in those states in the early 60s.
    Aborigines were never fauna but their traditional hunting and camping rights were dealt with under the various state flora and fauna acts.

    I listened to this bilge in silence. When the speaker asked if anyone knew when the anti-discrimination act was passed i said 1975 and she sneered “do you have a PhD in this?” I was able to reply that in actual fact I did.

  36. The queensland breakdown for this poll is close to the state level polling, so i guess the previous Neilen was questionable (rather than the other way around as i previously stated).

  37. ausdavo @ 247

    I couldn’t agree more with your post. Where I work the rent goes up 6% pa (except Woolworth’s where on two occasions at least the centre (and therefore the other small businesses in it), has been disrupted, even partly closed, for “improvements” to benefit Woolworth’s alone – e.g. parking, expansion etc).

    Sure they are the largest tenant but they are certainly not the only draw card for the centre, yet the pharmacy, newsagent, butcher, health centre et al don’t get a look in when it comes to negotiating terms.

    Abbott can remove as much green, blue, red, white, black or whatever other colour tape he likes, in a shopping centre the small business will always be screwed by greedy landlords and the big two, Woolies and Coles.

    Of course in the giant shopping malls, the small tenant is totally at the mercy of the giant. I’ve heard tales of small shops being told to refit their premises (at their expense) to give the mall a more modern look etc. Others have not had their leases renewed because Westfield, for example, happen to think that a”better” business can operate in that space.

  39. MB
    “”No I am referring to removing the carbon tax and reducing regulation which would be popular in many sectors of the community.””

    If you think prices will drop, you have rocks in your head!.

  41. Franny

    I just don’t want the likes of Deblonay to be let down when the Greens register another puny vote going backwards further at the next election.

    But for you it will be an absolute pleasure to see voters soon enough send your mob back to national parks where they belong and away from parliament.

  42. “@latikambourke: Trade Minister Andrew Robb arguing trade is the answer to stimulating growth post the GFC (as opposed to Govt’s borrowing to spend) @abcnews”

  43. “@latikambourke: Trade Minister Andrew Robb is releasing 1800 pages of the details involved with the Aust-Korea FTA recently agreed. @abcnews”

  45. Coalition 52-48. Of course most voters get their information from commercial radio and TV and the tabloid press. The message they’re mostly getting (apart from sport, celebrity trivia and cross-promotion) is that the boats have stopped, unions are corrupt and the carbon tax destroyed the car industry.

    Maybe Meguire Bob could come back with his irrepressible optimism to give his take on the poll and cheer us up.

  47. “@nickharmsen: Got a twitter question for the leaders at tonight’s #savotes ABC debate? Hit up our EP extraordinaire @en2wit with the details #saparli”

  48. [That was a Federal Court ruling. You can’t blame Labor (who it happened under) or the Liberals for it. The ATO lost the legal case.]

    I blame them both the ATO is massively underfunded, they are all tough around mum and dad taxpayers, but business runs rings around them. It is a joke that costs Australian’s billions each year.

  49. I’m not sure the ATO/News case was a result of simple accounting games. It really resulted from a very complex corporate restructure in 1989 which virtually saved News from going to the wall. From memory Murdoch was forced to restructure by financial institutions to save the business.

    The other interesting aspect is that the Australian Government has been aware of the Federal Court ruling since 2012 and the likely impact on the budget so it should not have come as a surprise.

  50. [I’m not sure the ATO/News case was a result of simple accounting games. It really resulted from a very complex corporate restructure in 1989]

    No it isn’t simple and it isn’t just accounting companies have complex tax structures so as to reduce tax. They don’t always work but this one obviously did.

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