GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL automated phone poll, which I’m guessing was conducted for Channel Seven, concurs with the recent Galaxy poll in having the Liberals with an election-winning lead of 55-45. Primary votes are 31.3% for Labor, 42.3% for Liberal, 18.4% for “others” including the Greens and 8% for undecided, which taking the latter out of the equation results in 34%, 46% and 20%. Steven Marshall leads Jay Weatherill as preferred premier 58.5-41.5, but ReachTEL’s findings on personal ratings can be a bit unusual owing to the absence of an undecided option.
UPDATE: Full results here.
Turkeys voting for Thanksgiving.
This one was over a long time ago
i am not surprised, it will take a lot of enemas to get Murdoch and the Right Wing nutters crap out of our population.
It probably will not happen until each and every person who has been brainwashed by these charlatans has suffered personal loss at the hands of Coalition governments.
Even then it may not happen. Some Germans who suffered terribly because of the madness of Hitler still remained adherents into their old age. Mao was the same, he could kills millions but his people never stopped ‘loving’ him.
It was only five years of brainwashing, but it was very very thorough.
[This one was over a long time ago]
Yeah, for a while that’s been the case. Even after the Holden stuff, I still had the Libs as the favourites. The Farrell fiasco finished it though.
The real question is what margin the Libs win by. The ALP will now have the trick of running a campaign to make that margin as narrow as possible, while looking like they’re doing it to win (easier said than done – if the press get one whiff it’s a seat saving campaign, they’ll make sure it’s painted so.)
I’ll still be rather surprised if this one ends up anywhere near 55-45. I don’t think the electorate has engaged with the state election yet in the same way that they might during a federal election campaign when almost 50% of the evening news is dedicated to the campaign. Even on the ABC news you’re lucky to get 5 minutes of coverage at the moment.
I don’t detect any real hatred of the current state Labor government out there in the community, nor an awful lot of love either. I detect neither of the above for the state Liberals either. This is not the sort of environment when one would expect a 55-45 result. Overall, the twelve years of Labor in this state have been relatively successful, I would argue, on balance. Of the most recent era of state Labor governments, I would argue that only Victoria would give the SA government any competition in the “best labor government of the era” (admittedly not a lot of competition from QLD and NSW).
My prediction is for the final result to end up somewhere between 52-48 and 53-47. This would give Labor a fair shot at minority government if it ended up in this range. It’s not impossible that this election could be 2002 redux.
I sense we are having all of the same pre election hyperbole that was evident in NSW, Qld and WA, where posters would regularly opine that this election outcome would be different to the published polls and that the result would be considerably closer than the polls.
The result will be a shellacking for the ALP. They have a leader over 1/2 the caucus doesn’t want and the Libs have found someone intelligent and reasonably articulate. This one is over, and with Tassie the same day no ALP government in any state of the commonwealth, or indeed the commonwealth!!
[They have a leader over 1/2 the caucus doesn’t want]
Proof?
The issues part of this ReachTEL shows very clearly that it’s time
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-south-australia-poll-13february2014
All of the issues are moving to the Liberal Party’s positive zone with the economy is leading the way. Fortunately for Weatherill, people are still listening to him so he might be able to claw back some undecideds by going very hard against Marshall and emphasising the ALP’s structural transisition plan for Holden but that should only save the furniture
Looking at the breakdowns the Liberals have got the female vote pretty much sewn up which is what always happens when they win
There will probably be a big swing to the Independents as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Kris Hanna pick up Mitchell and Kym Richardson an outside chance in Kaurna
The interesting thing about the (stronger) independents are what their preferences might do.
I reckon, assuming said independents don’t get up, the preferences of Johansen and Hanna will be crucial to decide who gets those seats (both of which can be picked up by the Libs.) I don’t know enough about Richardson in Kaurna.
It wouldn’t surprise me if we see something like Lee go Liberal and Mitchell stay Labor on the back of said preferences.
CM
Forgot about Johansen. Yes that would make Lee in play.
Only mention Richardson because he was the federal member there for awhile before Rishworth took over so he’d have a little bit of name recognition.
It’s also interesting to note the age breakdowns. With the 18-34 year olds the Liberals primary vote is in the low 20’s. With 50-64 year olds it’s in the low 50’s and over 65’s it’s in the high 50’s. Labor pretty much the same across all age groups
The age breakdowns aren’t particularly surprising to me, as they seem to reflect a national trend. I recall seeing pretty similar age breakdowns from poling prior to the federal election, from Morgan I believe.
Just a simple personality observation divorced from everything else, Jay Weatherill comes across as one of the nicest guys in Australian politics.
Weatherall is a nice guy. And smart. The problem is the rest of cabinet.
Kym Richardson has no chance whatsoever in Kaurna. This is his laughable attempt at an internet presence:
http://www.kaurna.com.au/
He manages to misspell both the electorate’s name and the word “independent” in a single webpage that looks like something One Nation would’ve produced in the 90’s, when Geocities was a thing. The cartoon looks like it was pinched from a Rodney Rude album.
And this guy used to be a federal MP? Bloody hell.
It’s a bit sad, because Labor was staging a modest recovery, presumably off the back of unease about Abbott, until Weatherill chose to blow his brains out by behaving like a petulant child and threatening to resign over a petty local preselection.
[Weatherall is a nice guy. And smart. The problem is the rest of cabinet.]
Not the entire cabinet. There are a few good names in there but, yeah, a lot of the senior cabinet members are self-serving idiots.
Makes you wonder who’s going to steer this ship once Weatherill resigns after the election.
Bird of paradox
ROTFL That’s hilarious! Went round that electorate on Sunday and saw his corflutes all over the place so I thought he might still have some sort of presence around the area. Guess I was wrong
Adam @16 expresses the view of “political genius” David Feeney
Antony Green has released an election calculator:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/sa-election-2014/calculator/
Be cautious of it though, as it does assume the seats will swing universally and 55-45 on it gives the Libs 25 seats but, realistically, that kind of 2PP margin will probably give them more.
Although, thinking about it, it does assume the 3 indies will be reelected and they are all in seats that are notionally Liberal (and would be so if the contest was ALP v Lib, which would make it a more realistic 28 seats notionally for the Libs)
And I just looked at the website. I cannot stop laughing. I hope, for his sake, that his on-the-ground and media campaign is better organised.
I’ll laugh if the polls start narrowing to 47/53 ish in the last couple of weeks …
The Labor candidate for Reynell is in trouble for alleged dodgy electioneering. This is one seat off the radar where they say an upset is on the cards.
Reynell is a big ask for the Libs. However such news leaves a nasty mark on the entire party and just makes the ALP campaign look even more desperate and dysfunctional.
I can advise from what I hear that Reynell is very much on the Libs radar. They are targeting anything under 12pc as possible using the ’93 election as a decent guide. And internal polling is showing much stronger results than the forecasted 55/45…..
Comparing this election to 1993 is a bit too fanciful. Mind you, I judge from the language of your posts that you’re hardly objective, “moderate”.
I’m still waiting for your proof that majority of caucus don’t support Jay Weatherill.
What kind of proof do you want. If you like I’ll provide you with 15 stat decs – unfortunately that’s not the way politics works.
I am about as jaundiced as you are, but I know whose position I’d like to be in…..
[What kind of proof do you want. If you like I’ll provide you with 15 stat decs – unfortunately that’s not the way politics works.]
You’re the one who made the claim. I just want something to back it up. Because, frankly, it seems like you’re talking out of your arse. And logic is on my side here too.
[I am about as jaundiced as you are, but I know whose position I’d like to be in…..]
There’s nothing jaundiced about me, thank you very much.
Thanks for the normal lefty cerebral analysis. Lets just see what happens after the election with Wehterill’s leadership. I drink either 389 or 407 so a case delivered will suffice as an apology. I have always thought that jaundice is in the eye of the beholder….
Doubt it will be a repeat of 1993 as those were very exceptional circumstances but I do think the Liberals will take seats from higher up the pendulum than 5% 2CP
Still no proof from “moderate” just more name calling and sulking. Face it, you’re nothing but a hack. That wouldn’t be a problem if you didn’t enter the conversation having a big sulk and dismissing everybody else’s commentary in an arrogant, condescending way because they were saying things you didn’t want to hear.
The difference between you and me is I separate my opinions from my analysis and will say something is happening/will happen even if I don’t want it to. Whereas you seem to just parrot anything that you want to hear and get tetchy when things you don’t want to hear are said.
[Doubt it will be a repeat of 1993 as those were very exceptional circumstances but I do think the Liberals will take seats from higher up the pendulum than 5%]
Definitely. There was a 7% swing in the federal election here so big swings can happen.
Also, a Premier stepping down as party leader after he’s lost an election an election doesn’t count as proof of him not currently having support of his caucus – that’s just desperate spin.
(One more post just to apologise for hijacking this thread with this argument. I’ll stop now because I’d rather see electoral analysis.)
This election was won and lost four years ago when Labor electorate wanted Labor out and will make sure of it this time.
Similarly, Labor had unlikely wins in NSW and Queensland only to be wiped out at the following election. But in Victoria, Labor lost narrowly last time and is well poised to come back later this year.
Labor’s tragedy in SA is that factional deals have put some very average candidates in safe seats whereas the real talent needed to revive the party in opposition is being cast to the lions in seats where they cannot win in the prevailing political climate. Examples, David O’Loughlin in Adelaide, Jo Chapley in Dunstan and perhaps Martin Mullighan in Lee.