Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,892 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 38
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  2. Kezza 2

    Have you tried to grow your own Comfrey?
    I understand that it is quite easily grown..and it can be harvested as you wish
    There are also many nurseries which have a large stock of herbs and may stock it

    In a similar way my wife has a lifetime history of nocturnal cramps…very painful…but rapidly eased by the use of quinine…which now has to have a Drs presc to obtain and many won’t give one…sayiong to use magnesium instead…but it’s far from being as good as quinine

    We have bought quantities in the USA where it is sold off the shelf …and no problems importing it here …
    Is it possible that comfrey could be obtained in the same way from overseas ..and have you tried some of the good Asian shops
    ‘Give it a go

  3. Tony Boyd writes in the AFR flagship opinion column, Chanticleer…
    [TONY BOYD
    Toyota’s decision to stop manufacturing in Australia is a further wake-up call for federal and state government policymakers struggling to help the 45,000 people employed in the country’s automotive supply chain.

    Job creation will have to be in growth industries such as information and communications technology. But there is a distinct lack of inspiration coming from political leaders about the need for Australia to embrace the digital economy…]

    That catch all, anonymous description “political leaders”. Pfft

    The article goes on, but in an astounding piece of amnesia (?), is quite able to avoid mentioning:
    1. NBN
    2. That the Abbott Government has no Minister for Science

  4. Before I go to bed, I need to say something about toilet paper.

    I usually buy a particular brand that is always in the same part of the supermarket I usually patronise!!!

    Anyway, re the toilet paper. This particular lot has questions and answers on it. WTF??

    A lot of it’s about Australian sporting successes, but also a lot is outright jingoism.

    Do I really have to discover the directors of this company and whether they’re also a part of the govt lobby lobby?

  5. mex
    [I actually thought it was a positive example of a highly successful disabled person who had been able to not only gain employment but excel in a job to become a well respected and well regarded member of a very busy team.

    Yep i added that i loved her guide dog and mentioned how quiet it was and how it sat at her side right though the working day.]

    Okay, but you didn’t say about the woman’s expertise in your first post, you talked about the dog.

    Go and look at what you posted.

    You don’t need to justify you admiration for her. This wouldn’t be an issue if you’d said it in the first place. But you didn’t.

    It came across as platitudinous, and especially about the dog.

    I didn’t have a “tanty”, I pointed out that you were patronising.

    And you were. You can keep justifying what you wrote till kingdom come, it won’t alter what your said.

    So, stop putting it on me, but recognise that you made a mistake in the way you spoke about her.

    That’s all.

  6. Kezza2

    I said both.

    Yes i didn’t separate the two into difference sentences and i have already admitted that some ten minutes ago.

  7. Lets look at the first comment

    I use to work with a blind lady, she was in the call centre, she used a braille keyboard and had a guide dog, a real passive lovely dog who would sit in the busy call centre and never bark.

    The word “and” is the sentence joiner between a comment about a lovely lady and a comment about her impressive guide dog.

    The last part related to the environment being busy and noisy yet the dog would remain rested besides the call centre operator.

  8. deblonay

    Good idea (re purchasing comfrey online. I hadn’t even thought of it). I sort of gave up about 15 years ago. Resigned myself to purchasing coconut-oil-based products.

    Since then, they’ve been discontinued as well.

    So, I’ve made do. I’ve even tried manufacturing my own creams with wool fat. It worked as long as the resulting cream was at more than 28C, otherwise a complete failure.
    And so messy.

    I’ll check it out online though. Problem is, when comfrey’s dried it looks like any other herb; still, I think I will never forget its scent. It was like we were married.

  9. mex

    Okay, I accept you didn’t mean it the way it came across. Or, lest we get into another argument, the way I perceived it.

    And that, in essence, you were congratulating the woman on her expertise at her job while simultaneously congratulating her on her ability to control her dog.

    Sleep tight. I will.

  13. [mexicanbeemer
    Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 1:46 am | PERMALINK
    Kezza2

    You too, i do think it is better to question a person motives than to set back and let them go unchallenged]

    We agree.

    However, I’m not even going to get in to the nitty gritty of that statement! Or we’ll be here forever.

    Who’s on What!

    Sweet dreams.

    I’ve watered the dog, and am now retiring. Goodnight.

  14. Deb Kezza

    Be cautious on the comfrey. I am pretty sure I have read it is a potent carcinogen. it DOES promote healing but it also gives nasty cells a growth boost too. It has been a while since I heard it and have no time now to research it.

  17. Dare to Tread
    Re quinine in G and T
    I checked with the manuafcturer on this and the amount is very small…it gives that bitter taste…but one would need to drink a bucketful to get the same amount as from a tab
    Good try but wrong

  18. kezza2

    “And what about the blind lady? Did she bark? Was she passive?
    Or did she do her job well?
    And, working in a call centre has to be the most fulfilling job. So intellectually challenging, especially if you have a well-behaved dog.
    Do you people even think about what you are proscribing for others? Patronising fucks.”

    You’re a bit of a wanker, kezza.

    Next time I see a disabled person working in a call centre I’ll make sure to call them a low-altitude flying fuckstick on your behalf.

  23. Goooood Morning Mari!

    Thanks for welcoming me back some threads ago (along with Player One)

    That turned out to be a fizzer really as I was crook again.

    So I have been out of posting action again until now.

    Though I have been lurking now and again.

    Are you well?

  24. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comfrey

    One of the most common modern-day uses of Comfrey extract is as a skin treatment. The plant contains the small organic molecule allantoin, which is thought to stimulate cell growth and repair while simultaneously depressing inflammation.[7] Some scientists and physicians agree that the use of Comfrey should be restricted to topical use, and should never be ingested, as it contains dangerous amounts of hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs).[8][9] Studies associating comfrey with veno-occlusive disease (VOD), do not differentiate between Russian and common comfrey, plants with very different levels of PAs.[5] VOD can in turn lead to liver failure, and comfrey has been implicated in at least one death though type of comfrey being consumed, other dietary, physiological and pharmacodynamic factors were not accounted for.[10] In 2001, the United States Food and Drug Administration issued a warning against internal usage of herbal products containing comfrey, and eventually banned Comfrey products intended for internal use.[11][12] In addition to restrictions on oral use, scientists and medical professionals recommend applying Comfrey extracts no longer than 10 days in a row, and no more than 4–6 weeks a year.[7][13]

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Here are my recommended links about Schapelle Corby –
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Would Abbott call this article a cost/benefit study?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/road-to-recession-end-of-car-industry-may-cost-50000-jobs-20140210-32d3g.html
    Laura Tingle sees this as a big test for Abbott. Quite a good article.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/toyota_could_be_abbott_biggest_test_gxVNBf9i5LFUtn52K45oXL
    It will be an interesting appearance but nothing will change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-committee-to-grill-abbott-adviser-over-proposal-for-6-fee-to-visit-gps-20140210-32d0j.html
    Stuck up Janet Abrechtson would not have been one of these customers. Was it a form of housewives’ poll?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/spc-sunday-campaign-boosts-sales-for-spc-ardmona-20140210-32cso.html
    I wish Reith would be “shuttered up”!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/despite-biases-the-abc-will-not-be-shuttered-up-20140210-32cpv.html
    No, Abbott would prefer to spend money on revenge.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/government-in-hole-must-start-digging-20140210-32d5k.html
    Lenore Taylor infers that Abbott is using IR/RC to take the focus off the carbon tax.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/10/coalitions-tricky-dance-trips-up-labor-over-spotlight-on-unions
    Geoff Shaw giving the Victorian Libs a bit of payback.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geoff-shaw-lashes-out-at-liberal-sooks-20140210-32cyf.html

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir now has Brandis firmly established as Mr Toad. Here he is announcing the Royal Commission fit-up.

    Cathy Wilcox gives up the Minister for Defensive.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope absolutely nails it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg reckons Sharman Stone’s days are numbered.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe with a good one on Abbott’s “spotlight”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  35. YB and Poroti

    I am aware of the comparative pay levels.

    I was responding to your perception of Trioli patronising peasants.

    She is patronising in any event, not to mention pretty damn smuug.

  36. Morning all. Thanks for the excellent choice of links to Schapelle stories worth reading BK 🙂

    Regarding the poll, we should remember MOE and that there has been little political news in recent weeks. Many are probably not paying attention. The 2PP is still a long way from the election result. Shorten’s drop is significant though.

  37. deblonay

    I used to get very annoying (not so much painful) muscle cramps because of my hip problems — Diog suggested drinking tonic water (which contains quinine) which certainly helped (belated thanks, Dio).

  38. [YB

    And what salary is Trioli on again?]
    Saying that “only” $236k is less than commercial radio stars misses the point that she is paid more than most doctors, for rather less challenging work. Media stars are a pampered lot, and often forget it.

  39. And from the Land of the Free –

    They all should take their guns to the movies.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/09/movie-theater-popcorn-killing-cop-video-released/
    What goes on inside the heads of the Repugs?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/09/goper-signs-bill-calls-turd/
    They just won’t give up on ObamaCare.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/09/new-obamacare-attacks-debunked-this-is-getting-tiresome-gop/
    What can one say about this sort of stuff?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/florida-man-proclaimed-i-hate-thug-music
    CSI Texas style!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/black-man-found-cut-throat-and-missing-ear
    A nice bit of work from a god-fearing hypocrite.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/women-s-clinic-bomber-and-right-wing
    How about this as a great bit of legislation?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/gop-gov-nikki-haley-about-make-taking
    Mike Malloy’s Tea Bagger of the day.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017174791
    Even more trouble for the embattled Chris Christie.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/10/chris-christie-subpoenas_n_4760683.html

  41. I hope Victorian Labor does not get too cosy with Geoff Shaw. The man is lucky to still be in parliament. Labor would not want to wind p tainted with what was a Liberal preselection error.

  42. Regarding Abbott, it is remarkable that he does not appear to have one positive policy to turn around Australia’s now sliding economy. Work is needed. Shorten just needs to keep asking the question: how will Abbott create jobs?

    Have a good day all.

  43. Kezza

    If I were burning to make some political or cultural claim, toilet paper packaging would be well down the list of places I’d put it.

  48. BK linked to this article.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/spc-sunday-campaign-boosts-sales-for-spc-ardmona-20140210-32cso.html

    A similar groundswell of support for Spring Gully products in SA resulted in saving the business, then SA Govt gave them a grant of $576000 for plant upgrade.

    Food manufacturer Spring Gully is getting a grant of $576,000 to buy new equipment.

    Managing director Kevin Webb says the State Government grant will let it buy equipment to boost the factory’s efficiency and help reduce production costs.

    “It means a lot to us because Spring Gully needs to be able to reinvest in itself, become more modern and employ new lead manufacturing technologies,” he said.

    The firm went into administration in April with debts of close to $5 million.

    The fourth-generation family business said its weekly orders trebled within days of its woes becoming public and employees were put on extra shifts to help meet retail demand.

    Mr Webb said the company was overwhelmed by the support it got from retailers and the buying public.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-07/spring-gully-foods-gets-state-grant-for-new-equipment/5075666

  49. So it seems when Abbott says “Australia is open for business” he means ” and don’t let the door hit you in the arse as you leave”

  50. Re Newspoll. Regardless of what spin the Murdoch cheer squad and other ning nongs might try to put on it, it’s a very poor result for the Libs.

    Sure, polls tend to turn downwards for governments as first terms roll on, but this is usually after they have taken some unpopular decisions in their first budget. This government hasn’t taken too many decisions yet: instead, they continue to come across as if they are not really in control and are simply allowing stuff to happen to them, and then whinging and complaining about it.

    No positive messages, just a sort of scolding approach; bad ABC, bad unions, bad companies for allowing unions to walk all over them, bad all of us for believing in the “age of entitlement”.

    And the 51-49 result was based on data collected before the Toyota announcement.

    Some PBers are miserable because the result wasn’t 55-45 Labor. That was never going to happen now, but it will if the government doesn’t get its act together soon.

    Re Shorten: Kevin Bonham’s evocation of Simon Crean seems accurate to me. The guy has everything he needs to be a successful politician except the vital element of charisma. And he’s also too obviously a product of the trade union mob at a time when Abbott wants to make a big fuss about union corruption to distract attention from other problems. Tactically, I would prefer Shorten to welcome the Royal Commission, but I guess he is unable to do that.

    St Albo, the hero of many on here is, in my view, incapable of connecting with the broader public. He is an inner city type with a strong political connection to the hard left unions that will be a target of the Royal Commission. His strong-armed behaviour in Parliament thrills the Labor hard core, but leaves the swing voters cold. Albo as leader would be like Keating with far less mainstream policies.

    So I think Shorten will have to do for now. My medium term preference is Plibersek. Sure, she is far from perfect, but – with mentors like Bruce Childs and John Della – she is, of all the current frontbench she is the least embedded in factional and union politics (other than Dreyfus, who I don’t see as leader material). Hey, she even used to have a job that wasn’t with the party or a union! This is the sort of person Labor needs a lot more of ATM. Alas, they have never had fewer of them in powerful positions.

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