Galaxy: 53-47 to LNP in Queensland

A Queensland state poll finds support for Campbell Newman’s LNP government at a low ebb, and a significant drop in support for its bikies crackdown.

The Courier-Mail reports a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland has the Liberal National Party’s two-party lead down from 57-43 to 53-47 since the previous poll in November, and its primary vote down four points to 41%. The report also says Campbell Newman’s net approval rating is down from minus 6% to minus 13%, while Annastacia Palaszczuk goes backwards from plus 7% to neutral. Newman’s lead as preferred premier is down two points compared with a 46-33 lead last time. The poll also finds support declining for the government’s bikies crackdown, the number in favour down from 56% to 48% and opposition up from 37% to 45%.

Hopefully I’ll be able to fill the gaps in those numbers tomorrow, and we’ll also hopefully be seeing some results on federal voting intention as well. The poll was conducted “late last week” from the usual sample of 800.

UPDATE: Full results here. The BludgerTrack model reads the full gamut of seven Galaxy, five Newspoll and ten ReachTEL results over the current term like so (grey being “others”):

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

19 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. [Galaxy: 53-37 to LNP in Queensland]

    I presume that should read “53-47”.

    This must be the best poll Qld Labor has had since Bligh’s brief bounce at the time of the 2011 floods. This represent a two-party swing of about 10%, which would give Labor a gain of about 28 seats, still eight seats short.

  2. Big majorities bring their own set of problems. With a lot of LNP members looking at losing their job it opens the door to lots of public disunity and even some ship jumping to minor parties or independent status. I’m hoping for a lot of bad publicity for Newman between now & the election.

  3. Does anyone think there any chance of the LNP losing the seat of Ashgrove (5.7% after the 12.8% swing to LNP when Newman won it in 2012)? And is there any precedent in Australia where a party won but their leader lost?

    kj – Yes, I said as much to a crowing Queensland relative after that election. Massive landslides end up electing people who even their own party didn’t really want in Parliament. Like that Liberal (on the ballot paper) Pauline Hanson!

  4. Wow – who would have ever thought that the LNP could be a one term government in Queensland after the massive landslide victory they won back in 2012. It is a testament to Campbell and his key MPs extraordinary poor performance. I know they are still in the lead on a TPP preferred basis, but each newspoll has shown a consistent download trend over the past 12 months (see below) – if the trend continues, they could be a one-term government. This was rare in Aus politics, but it seems like it might be a more common phenomena – ALP scrapping to a second term in 2010 at the federal level; Abbott’s government already struggling in the polls; and a likely defeat of the Vic State gov at the next election). It seems the electorate is becoming much quicker at punishing a government.
    Newspoll TPP result QLD (LNP- ALP)
    62-38 (Jan-Mar 2013)
    59-41 (Apr-Jun 2013)
    55-45 (Oct-Dec 2013)
    53-47 (Jan-Feb 2014)

  5. I think KJ and RR are right. This is where big majorities present a problem. There are at least 30 LNP MPs that look like they are going to be out of a job before the end of the year – many of them fringe dwellers in the party with nothing to lose. I expect some of them will start to make a lot of noise soon complaining about Newman – others might jump ship to PUP, KAP or ‘become’ independents. Either way, it should be an interesting election in QLD, especially given the voting laws and the presence of PUP. A LNP-PUP coalition government could be the outcome….

  6. I can’t think of an election in Australia where a party has won but its leader has lost their seat. It has happened in Britain. Gladstone lost South-West Lancashire in 1868 (he was also elected for Greenwich).

  7. Looks like the next state election is going to be a whole lot closer than anyone expected. There must be some very nervous backbenchers right now.

    I imagine an early election is very likely. Bring it on, I say. With the LNP almost certain to scrape back into government, best case scenario for Labor is for the next election to be held as soon as possible.

    They’ll then have a much larger caucus, a number of viable candidates for the leadership, and the election after that (which will almost certainly be a drover’s dog election) will have to be held earlier.

  8. 14-as Thanks for that. Having lived in Alice Springs and Darwin in late 80s and late 90s I am embarrassed to admit I didn’t know that! Missed Labor’s win in 2001 – came at least one election earlier than I ever thought it would.

  9. Newman doubles down on stupid, this time taking a swipe at defence lawyers. Under the cab rank system, barristers are obliged to defend their clients in court, so the Bar Association rightly calls Newman out on this ignorant criticism of a basic aspect of our justice system.
    [Queensland Bar Association president Peter Davis QC says the premier has suggested that lawyers – simply be defending someone accused of a crime – are somehow complicit in criminality themselves.
    ‘‘The idea that a lawyer, by representing someone who is accused of a criminal offence, is somehow or other joining the criminality is just misconceived,’’ he told the ABC on Friday.
    ‘‘That’s just simply wrong and that remark should, in our view, be corrected.’’
    He said lawyers had a paramount duty to the court and the administration of justice, and that duty overrode any obligations they had to their clients.]

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