BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate has Newspoll eliminating Labor’s modest gains over the early new year period, when it had only Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL to go on.

The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead – a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November – from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.

There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,740 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 35
1 34 35
  1. Puffy

    There are so many issues for Insiders to tackle tomorrow……

    The Fiona Nash saga
    The Indonesia stand off with Australia re boat policy
    The hypocrisy by Abbott re SPC compared
    The Toyota bullshit by Hockey
    The Qantas demands
    Farmers seeking drought assistance

    Will BCassidy and fhe journos indeed have a spine and call it like it is


    Tony Abbott has been in power since 7 September 2013. From that moment, he and his government have broken promises and hurt Australians.

    This post will be regularly updated to keep track of the Abbott Government’s broken promises and everything his Government does to hurt Australians.

    Each separate item will have a link to a source. Broken promises appear in bold and in a separate list at the end.


    103. Pays hundreds of indigenous workers in his Department up to $19 000 less than non-indigenous workers doing the same job and cuts the budget for the representative body the National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples causing two-thirds of the staff to lose their jobs – 15 February 2014

    102. Breaks a promise to provide fibre-to-the-premises for all Tasmanians for the National Broadband Network – 13 February 2014

    101. Unemployment rate jumps to highest in more than 10 years – 13 February 2014

    100. Lies to the Australian public about the reasons Toyota gave for their decision to close in order to blame the workers who are the victims of the decision and their union – 12 February 2014

    99. Takes down a website providing information to the Australian public on the ingredients and nutritional content of foods. It is later revealed that the person in the Minister’s office who gave this directive is married to a lobbyist from the junk food industry – 11 February 2014

    98. Destroys the Australian car manufacturing industry by refusing to provide any industry assistance leading to the decision of Toyota to shut costing up to 30 000 jobs – 10 February 2014

    97. Launches a Royal Commission into unions – 10 February 2014

    96. Reintroduces temporary visas for asylum seekers found to be fleeing persecution preventing them ever settling in Australia and retrospectively applies them to 20 000 people – 7 February 2014

    95. Supports a reduction of penalty rates and other Award minimums in a submission to the Fair Work Commission’s review of all Awards – 4 February 2014

    94. Lies to the Australian public about the wages and working conditions of factory workers at SPC Ardmona in Shepparton and uses this lie to blame them for their own job insecurity – 4 February 2014

    93. Abolishes the Charities and Not-For-Profits Commission which regulates charities and investigates complaints of fundraising scams, corruption and fraud, costing 100 jobs – 31 January 2014

    92. Launches an “efficiency study” into ABC and the SBS – 30 January 2014

    91. Cuts the wages of Australian troops deployed overseas by almost $20 000 per solider – 29 January 2014

    90. Intervenes on the side of Toyota to support cutting Australian workers wages and conditions – 28 January 2014

    89. Privatises the 104 year old Australian Valuation Office costing nearly 200 jobs – 24 January 2014

    88. Seeks to wind back the World Heritage listing of Tasmania’s forests – 23 January 2014

    87. Withdraws funding for an early intervention program to help vulnerable young people – 22 January 2014

    86. Exempts Western Australia from national environment laws to facilitate shark culling – 21 January 2014

    85. Defunds all international environmental programs, the International Labour Organisation and cuts funding to a range of international aid programs run by NGOs such as Save the Children, Oxfam, CARE Australia and Caritas – 18 January 2014

    84. Violates Indonesia’s territorial sovereignty while turning back asylum seeker boats – 17 January 2014

    83. Scraps weekly media briefings on asylum seeker issues in an attempt to avoid public and media scrutiny – 14 January 2014

    82. Politicises the national school curriculum by appointing a former Liberal staffer and a Coalition supporter, both critics of the current curriculum to conduct a review – 10 January 2014.

    81. Directs that people already found to be refugees who arrived by boat be given the lowest priority for family reunion – 8 January 2014

    80. Fails to contradict or take any action against a member of his government, Senator Cory Bernardi, who makes divisive statements about: abortion, “non-traditional” families and their children, same sex couples, couples who use IVF and calls for parts of WorkChoices to be reintroduced – 6 January 2014

    79. Devastates Australia’s contribution to overseas aid by cutting $4.5 billion from the budget, causing vital programs supporting those in extreme poverty in our region to collapse – 1 January 2014

    78. Drastically reduces tax breaks for small business and fails to publicise it – 1 January 2014

    77. Refuses to support jobs at SPC at the cost of hundreds of jobs – 27 December 2013

    76. Appoints Tim Wilson, a Liberal Party member and Policy Director of a right-wing think tank to the position of Commissioner at the Human Rights Commission even though this think tank argued for the Commission to be abolished – 23 December 2013

    75. Approves private health fund premium increases of an average 6.2% a year – 23 December 2013

    74. Breaks his promise to provide the promised customs vessel to monitor whaling operations in the Southern Ocean – 23 December 2013

    73. Requests the delisting of World Heritage status for Tasmanian forests – 21 December 2013

    72. Dilutes consumer protections and transparency requirements for financial planners, including abolishing the requirement they put their clients interests first – 20 December 2013

    71. Breaks a promise to make no cuts to health by cutting $150 million from hospital and health services in Western Sydney – 17 December 2013.

    70. Scraps the Home Energy Saver Scheme which helps struggling low income households cut their electricity bills – 17 December 2013

    69. Defunds the Public Interest Advocacy Centre whose objectives are to work for a fair, just and democratic society by taking up legal cases public interest issues – 17 December 2013

    68. Defunds the Environmental Defenders Office which is a network of community legal centres providing free advice on environmental law – 17 December 2013

    67. Axes funding for animal welfare – 17 December 2013

    66. Breaks his election promise of no cuts to education by cutting funding for trade training centres in schools – 17 December 2013

    65. Abolishes the AusAID graduate program costing 38 jobs – 17 December 2013

    64. Cuts Indigenous legal services by $13.4 million. This includes $3.5 million from front line domestic violence support services, defunding the National legal service and abolishing all policy and law reform positions across the country – 17 December 2013

    63. Abolishes the position of co-ordinator-general for remote indigenous services – 17 December 2013

    62. Breaks his promise to unequivocally support the NDIS by changing the name of NDIS “launch sites” to “trial sites” and flags cuts to funding – 17 December 2013

    61. Abolishes the National Office for Live Music along with the live music ambassadors – 17 December 2013

    60. Cuts $2.5 million from community radio – 17 December 2013

    59. Weakens the ministerial code of conduct to let ministers keep shares in companies – 16 December 2013

    58. Disbands the independent Immigration Health Advisory Group for asylum seekers – 16 December 2013

    57. Axes $4.5 million from charities and community groups for the Building Multicultural Communities Program – 13 December 2013

    56. Starts dismantling Australia’s world leading marine protection system – 13 December 2013

    55. Scraps the COAG Standing Council on Environment and Water – 13 December 2013

    54. Breaks his NBN election promise of giving all Australians access to 25 megabits per second download speeds by 2016 – 12 December 2013

    53. Overturns the “critically endangered” listing of the Murray Darling Basin – 11 December 2013

    52. Dares Holden to leave Australia. Holden responds by announcing its closure which costs Australians 50 000 jobs – 11 December 2013

    51. Approves Clive Palmer’s mega coal mine in the Galilee Basin which opponents say will severely damage Great Barrier Reef – 11 December 2013

    50. Demands that the few childcare workers who got pay rises “hand them back” – 10 December 2013

    49. Approves the largest coal port in the world in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area – 10 December 2013

    48. Removes the community’s right to challenge decisions where the government has ignored expert advice on threatened species impacts – 9 December 2013

    47. Downgrades national environment laws by giving approval powers to state premiers – 9 December 2013

    46. Undermines Australia’s democracy by signing a free trade agreement with South Korea allowing corporations to sue the Australian Government – 6 December 2013

    45. Damages our diplomatic relationship with our nearest neighbour East Timor – 5 December 2013

    44. Repeals the pokie reform legislation which was designed to combat problem gambling – 4 December 2013

    43. Suspends the Wage Connect program, despite it being proven to deliver good outcomes for unemployed people – 3 December 2013

    42. Axes funding to the Alcohol and Other Drugs Council of Australia, forcing the 46 year old organisation to close – 27 November 2013

    41. Breaks his promise to support Gonski and back flips three times – 25 November 2013

    40. Shifts Australia’s position at the UN on Israeli settlements – 25 November 2013

    39. Damages our diplomatic relationship with the Indonesian Government by refusing to apologise for tapping the phones of their President, his wife and senior Government officials – 23 November 2013

    38. Converts crucial Start-Up Scholarships into loans, increasing the debt of 80,000 higher education students by $1.2 billion – 21 November 2013

    37. Gifts two navy patrol boats to the Sri Lankan government to stop asylum seekers fleeing the Sri Lankan government – 17 November 2013

    36. Introduces a Bill to impose on workers who are elected onto unpaid union committees huge financial penalties and jail terms for breeches of new compliance obligations – 14 November 2013

    35. Condones torture by foreign governments by saying “sometimes in difficult circumstances, difficult things happen” – 14 November 2013

    34. Hides information from the Parliament and the people about the government’s treatment of asylum seekers – 13 November 2013

    33. Separates a refugee mother from her newborn baby – 10 November 2013

    32. Cuts 600 jobs at the CSIRO – 8 November 2013

    31. Abolishes Insurance Reform Advisory Group which provided a forum for industry and consumer bodies to discuss insurance industry reform – 8 November 2013

    30. Abolishes the Maritime Workforce Development Forum which was an industry body working to build a sustainable skills base for the maritime industry – 8 November 2013

    29. Abolishes the High Speed Rail Advisory Group whose job it was to advise Governments on the next steps on implementing high speed rail for eastern Australia – 8 November 2013

    28. Abolishes the Advisory Panel on the Marketing in Australia of Infant Formula which for 21 years ensured companies comply with agreements on the advertising of infant formula – 8 November 2013

    27. Abolishes the Antarctic Animal Ethics Committee who ensured research on animals in the Antarctic complies with Australian standards – 8 November 2013

    26. Abolished the National Steering Committee on Corporate Wrongdoing that for 21 years worked to make sure the law was effectively enforced on corporate criminals – 8 November 2013

    25. Abolishes the National Inter-country Adoption Advisory Council which provided expert advice on overseas adoption – 8 November 2013

    24. Abolishes International Legal Services Advisory Council which was responsible for working to improve the international performance of Australia’s legal services – 8 November 2013

    23. Abolishes the Commonwealth Firearms Advisory Council a group of experts in gun crime and firearms which was set up after the Port Arthur massacre – 8 November 2013

    22. Abolishes Australian Animals Welfare Advisory Committee a diverse group of experts advising the Agriculture Minister on animal welfare issues – 8 November 2013

    21. Abolishes the National Housing Supply Council which provided data and expert advice on housing demand, supply and affordability – 8 November 2013

    20. Abolishes the Advisory Panel on Positive Ageing, established to help address the challenges the country faces as the number of older Australians grows – 8 November 2013

    19. Refuses to offer support to manufacturing in Tasmania, despite requests and warnings. Caterpillar announces the move of 200 jobs from Burnie to Thailand, costing around 1000 local jobs – 5 November 2013

    18. Provides $2.2 million legal aid for farmers and miners to fight native title claims – 1 November 2013

    17. Abolishes the 40 year old AusAID costing hundreds of jobs – 1 November 2013

    16. Launches a successful High Court challenge which strikes down the ACT Marriage Equality laws invalidating the marriages of many people and ensuring discrimination against same-sex couples continues – 23 October 2013

    15. Denies there is a link between climate change and more severe bush fires and accuses a senior UN official was “talking through their hat” – 23 October 2013

    14. Appoints the head of the Business Council of Australia to a “Commission of Audit” to recommend cuts to public spending – 22 October 2013

    13. Cuts compensation to the victims of bushfires – 21 October 2013

    12. Instructs public servants and detention centre staff to call asylum seekers “illegals” – 20 October 2013

    11. Appoints Howard era Australian Building & Construction Commission (ABCC) Director to help reinstate the ABCC with all its previous oppressive powers over construction workers – 17 October 2013

    10. Axes the Major Cities Unit a Government agency with 10 staff which provided expert advice on urban issues in our 18 biggest cities – 24 September 2013

    9. Breaks his promise to “stop the boats” – 23 September 2013

    8. Scraps the Social Inclusion Board, which had been established to guide policy on the reduction of poverty in Australia – 19 September 2013

    7. Abolishes the Climate Commission – 19 September 2013

    6. Appoints himself Minister for Women – 16 September 2013

    5. Appoints only one woman into his cabinet and blames the women for his decision, saying he appoints “on merit”– 16 September 2013

    4. Abolishes key ministerial positions of climate change and science – 16 September 2013

    3. Breaks his promise to spend his first week with an Aboriginal community –
    14 September 2012

    2. Takes away pay rises for childcare workers – 13 September 2013

    1. Takes away pay rises from aged care workers – 13 September 2013

  3. questions:

    1) how many family trusts are there in this country
    2) what is their average or combined worth?
    3) how much untaxed money is deposited each year?
    4) how many federal politicians operate family trusts? breakdown to each party?
    5) what is the past and continuing rationale for family trusts?
    6) if government is concerned with cutting back entitlements when will it reform family trusts?

  4. madcyril, I havent been able to listen to Ch9 commentary for years now, this year i went to a new level of heavenly enjoyment by listening to BBC radio, didnt matter it was 4 balls behind the vision.

    Slats is a nutter, mad as a cut snake when on the sauce. As for commentary, he is second last to that parochial Morphett!

  5. 1704

    The main thing needed is to subject family trusts to the same tax regime as companies.

    They are tax rort for the rich until this is done.

  6. Tom

    [The main thing needed is to subject family trusts to the same tax regime as companies.

    They are tax rort for the rich until this is done.]

    As if that will happen.

    My view is that very bit of business welfare should be stopped, whether to mining, farming or manufacturing and the people should vote on which industries get welfare.

    The politicians are corrupt and subsidise who funds them.

  7. thanks tom the first

    why do you think this is not an issue in the post entitlement age? too many cross benches with money at stake? haven’t heard a whisper. would still like to know stats – how much taxed foregone each year. will keep asking till find out

  8. Actually you can’t hold profits untaxed in trusts. All trust profit has to be distributed to beneficiaries and taxed in their hands. You can distribute trust profits to a trust company but then it is taxed at 30%.

    The real benefit of trusts is that they facilitate distribution of profits to those beneficiaries who can obtain the best tax rates which is why families use trust structures. All you have to do is nominate which beneficiaries get what share of trust profit prior to 30 June.

  9. I think we all knew this.

    “Social scientists”, who are generally not scientists at all, are less intelligent than physical scientists, who are real scientists. They are also more religious and more likely to be political extremists.

    [“There is sound evidence of a negative correlation between intelligence and religiosity and between intelligence and political extremism,” reads the paper in the Interdisciplinary Journal on Research and Religion which examines existing data on academic scientists’ IQs by field, and on religious beliefs and political extremism among science professors in the US and Britain. “Therefore the most probable reason behind elite social scientists being more religious than are elite physical scientists is that social scientists are less intelligent.”]

  10. only 30%?

    but how did these trusts ever come into being? how are they possibly justified? what taxation is lost (foregone) from what direct company or income tax would have provided

  11. [ The main thing needed is to subject family trusts to the same tax regime as companies.

    They are tax rort for the rich until this is done.]

    I dream of paying the same tax rate as a company.

  12. As bad as the 9 commentary is, it’s disappointing that the series isn’t on TV. Still, if that were the worst thing about capitalism, I’d not have much to complain about. 😉

  13. Assistant Health Minister Fiona Nash has gone to ground amid accusations she misled Parliament and breached the ministerial code of conduct over her office’s links to the junk food industry.
    Senator Nash’s chief of staff, Alastair Furnival, resigned on Friday, days after Fairfax Media revealed he had significant links to the junk food industry when he was involved in pulling down a healthy food star-rating website.
    He and Senator Nash intervened to pull down the website, even though it was in development for two years and was approved by state and territory food ministers.

    Read more:

  14. [I dream of paying the same tax rate as a company.]

    I dream of of a world where all tory exploiters disappeared into their nasty black holes.

  15. geoffrey, wasnt some of that covered in the Henry Review (didnt he say beneficiary taxes were a better way)? I would look it up but now I can watch cricket I have something better to do.

    I do know I looked into putting an inheritance into a trust for future generations. I was informed trusts were longer worth the trouble….. especially considering the small amount I was talking about.

  16. Trusts have been around for a long time. Basically they make it easy for family business to income split. That is where the tax advantage comes from as trust profits distributed then get tax at the beneficiaries marginal rate. A beneficiary who has no other income, say the farmer’s wife, can receive a good amount of trust profit before becoming liable for any tax. Whatever the current TFT happens to be.

  17. What’s Up at Menzies House ???????????
    I am a regular reader and a one time contrib)uter(until I got banned for my rarther trenchant comments… at Menzies House

    However there has been only one item posted by the management since early January…and that was posting was a few weeks ago…since then..nothing…nada..zilch

    So Nothing…. what is happening to one of the Libs prime sites
    where is Bernardi ????

    If only Sean Tisme was here to keep us informed …oh well…

  18. [I dream of of a world where all tory exploiters disappeared into their nasty black holes.]

    I dream of a world where capitalist running dogs are sent for re-education in the salt mines of Siberia. 👿

  19. 1719

    Why should company income be splittable but not wage income?

    If there is a justification for income splitting, there should be no disadvantage for wage earners compared to companies.

  20. Tom simply because it is allowed under current tax legislation and no government has had the courage to try and change that mainly because it will hit a lot of small business families and farming families. The simple way to fix it is to tax trusts at the same rate as companies and allow the beneficiaries a franking credit.

  21. [Insiders tomorrow will be about unions. Union corruption. Shorten as a union bully. Etc.]

    In a country of drought, tears shed for the ALP/Unions is a great waste of water.

    Once a movement for justice the ALP is bereft of any Australian light on the hill.

    It just defines itself as a shadow of the LNP Turbo-capitalists.

    When i studied Australian history, politics was understood as between Labor and non-labor.

    Sadly it is now between rightists and non-rightists.

  22. [
    madcyril, I havent been able to listen to Ch9 commentary for years now, this year i went to a new level of heavenly enjoyment by listening to BBC radio, didnt matter it was 4 balls behind the vision.


    Yes I listened to the BBC radio coverage at work and it was very enjoyable. I can’t cope with the radio being out of whack with the TV coverage and just have to put up with Channel 9’s shambolic efforts. Still, if that’s the biggest problem I face this year, I’ll be doing well!

  23. Fran, shame on you injecting a political jibe into a cricket comment.

    Test cricket and politics should not mix.

    Unless you are Bob Hawke.

  24. Diogenes

    [I dream of a world where capitalist running dogs are sent for re-education in the salt mines of Siberia.]

    Are you a bolshevik? If so, you would share the disdain for free expression with Brandis.

  25. madcyril, I heard (via the guardian) the terrible interview with the Austrlian Womens cricket team that Slats and Vaughan did….simply awful, glad i wasnt watching.

    Re BBC – I got used to the delay. I really enjoyed the BBC.

  26. Davidwh

    Hit a lot of small businesses and farming families. Does that mean they would pay the same tax as people who work for wages?
    If I recall correctly reform of the tax arrangements for trust was something that Peter Costello mentioned. I think he was quickly slapped down by the Nats and it was never mentioned again.

  27. Rossmcg all individuals are subject to the same tax on personal income. The difference with trusts is the ability to direct trust profit where you get the best tax advantage. For ordinary salary earners an equivalent would be tax splitting in a single income family.

    People who support trusts argue that beneficiaries all contribute to the trust income so deserve a share. It’s really a shallow argument but so far it has won the argument.

  28. ________

    Indonesia and the rights of the Palestinians——-

    -Indo Foreign Minister pledges strong support for the Palestinians and their rights to a state…and will make it a major plank of the Indons foreign policy..with a major world Conf later in the year in Jakarta..
    This coming on top of Bishop’s statement of suppprt for the building of illegal jewish settlements on the West Bank…is just another area where the two govts will have major disagreements

  29. Deblonay

    Indonesia may have good reason for fearing further trouble in the ME, since together with Turkey anMalaysia they may become the final destination for many millions. If Australia, Europe and Canada close their borders to Muslims, where else could displaced Palestinians or Syrians go? pt

    Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon are essentially trashed, Jordan too small and would not welcome Sheites.

  30. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Can I have some too?
    Hmm. Focus groups on expensive steroids.
    Abbott’s priorities on display.
    There’s a smell here.
    Who do they think they are, Microsoft?
    Fairfax revisits Abbott’s carbon tax disaster claims. One has to wonder at the business acumen of many of the companies that hosted his stunts.
    Fiona, where are you?
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column.
    Cathy Wilcox looks at our priorities.
    Pat Campbell gives us his interpretation of Channel 7’s approach to Corby.

  31. Four billion lost because the price on carbon is going, mining tax gone.

    On the other side of the ledger, direct action, paid perental leave for the rich and reducing revenue as they tank the economy.

    These clowns sure know haw to create a budget emergency. A six dollar charge on all doctor visits isn’t going to pay for it.

    Abbott the lost years.

Comments Page 35 of 35
1 34 35

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *