BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate has Newspoll eliminating Labor’s modest gains over the early new year period, when it had only Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL to go on.

The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead – a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November – from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.

There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,740 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

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  5. Compact Crank@1621

    Unemployment hits ALP forecast and it’s:

    a. bad

    b. the LNP fault.

    Something very strange about that – so if the ALP was still in Governemnt would there be opprobrium too?

    I believe unemployment has reached it’s present level ahead of forecast and with the present bunch of mental midgets running the show it is likely to go a lot higher than previously forecast.

  6. Johnson has nine wickets for the game..he should easily get a ten

    He is a bit erratic and looking like the old Mitch….hope he gets it together next over or two

  9. The Sunday ToiletPaper, well briefed by Peta Credlin, turns up the hysteria on the “terrorist threat”.

    The last refuge of the scoundrel is….

  10. Bemused, Comrade

    “Mentall illness” is a pretty gross term. Arguably, the vast majority of mentally ill persons present no more risk to others than the general population (excluding those who are insane, psychopathic, sociopathic)

    I have not heard that this father suffered a mental illness specifically associated with violent and unpredictable conduct towards others. Reading between the lines it seems that domestic violence might have been involved.

    Domestic violence is not usually the product of mental illness and can of course precede the illness, or be an emerging symptom of it…… Don’t know the facts here….. I do know of a fair few cases where domestic violence totally in the absence of mental illness has resulted in the deaths of children.

    On the other hand a personality disorder may well be the basis of domestic violence.

    I am not copping out on this ….. that is a bit below the belt. The fact is that it’s all very complex, and only those who are skilled in the area AND who know all the facts could have an understanding that I would trust.

    But as in so many complex matters, those who propose a simple solution are usually wrong.

  12. BB

    any word on what they think of Johnson?

    I always loved the ADF description of Nelson, when he was Minister — “Just like Andrew Peacock, but without the substance.”

  15. [imacca – did you choose a VPN?

    WiTopia doesn’t look too bad to me.]

    Arghh. Just catching up.

    Dave, i am going with PrivateInternetAccess.

    Read up on price, privacy and performance. They seem to have a good balance of each and dont keep logs.

  16. psyclaw@1660

    Bemused, Comrade

    “Mentall illness” is a pretty gross term. Arguably, the vast majority of mentally ill persons present no more risk to others than the general population (excluding those who are insane, psychopathic, sociopathic)

    I have not heard that this father suffered a mental illness specifically associated with violent and unpredictable conduct towards others. Reading between the lines it seems that domestic violence might have been involved.

    Domestic violence is not usually the product of mental illness and can of course precede the illness, or be an emerging symptom of it…… Don’t know the facts here….. I do know of a fair few cases where domestic violence totally in the absence of mental illness has resulted in the deaths of children.

    On the other hand a personality disorder may well be the basis of domestic violence.

    I am not copping out on this ….. that is a bit below the belt. The fact is that it’s all very complex, and only those who are skilled in the area AND who know all the facts could have an understanding that I would trust.

    But as in so many complex matters, those who propose a simple solution are usually wrong.

    Did you read this article? http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/alone-jobless-and-mentally-ill-a-dads-road-to-murder-20140214-32rlw.html

  17. Youtube doesn’t have everything though. Last night I tried in vain to find a clip of Neil Murray’s Johnny Grey but to no avail.

  18. 1659

    Did not take them long

    sprocket_
    Posted Saturday, February 15, 2014 at 8:43 pm | PERMALINK
    The Sunday ToiletPaper, well briefed by Peta Credlin, turns up the hysteria on the “terrorist threat”.

    The last refuge of the scoundrel is….

  19. imacca – Ta for that

    I’ve read at lot VPN’s today and will look at it all again on the morrow with a clear mind.

    Too many options confusing matters somewhat atm.

    Download limits are a consideration as well – looking at the future, maybe a netflix subscription.

  20. Yep, I have some download thingies installed in both my browsers (FF, and Safari), and keep anything good, especially the hi def stuff.

    Like this nature doco, for example, which has particularly nice quality video, though the narration is no patch on dear old David Attenborough:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ncUVddkK3Q

    YT does set some stuff at stream only. Still free though, and usually safe, legally speaking. 🙂 (Apart from any other reason, YT is owned by Google now, so good luck to any government trying to shut them down.)

  21. dave, one thing to be aware of about torrenting over VPNs is that they don’t all allow it (or not on every server they have). Depends mainly on the country the server is in.

    Look for the ones that allow remote port forwarding (RPF).

  23. [But the real issue is our inability to deal with the mentally ill, and the problem is getting worse. It is a massive problem, so much so that all police are being retrained to deal with the deeply disturbed.
    In 2009 police dealt with 4798 people so disturbed that they were taken to a mental health triage centre. In 2012 that number had jumped to 7901, which equates to one every 67 minutes.
    In 2008 of almost 4000 incidents where force was used by or against police, around 15 per cent involved mentally ill offenders. Four years later that had jumped to 35 per cent.]

    [Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/alone-jobless-and-mentally-ill-a-dads-road-to-murder-20140214-32rlw.html#ixzz2tNsAI6Ka%5D

    Surely one would expect horrible incidents like this will increase as a direct result of the primitive turbo-capitalist country that Australia is becoming:

    – where “community” is denied, public service is denigrated and the few remnants of community-wide support systems (e.g. medicare) are unlikely to survive;

    – where the unopposed goal is to increase the total wealth and political power of an increasingly smaller elite;

    – where all lower-class people have ‘insecure’ jobs for their whole working life;

    – where in the name of “security” and “copy rite” international corporations will increasingly control our lives.

  25. What do the Rugby League supporters here think of the Nines concept?

    I can’t believe some are seriously advocating for a proper nines competition. Rugby League is too taxing on footballers as it is to program any additional competition in my view.

    But who knows, one day Rugby League which evolved from the 15 man aside Rugby Union, may evolve further to 11 man aside 😎

  28. zoomster
    I always loved the ADF description of Nelson, when he was Minister — “Just like Andrew Peacock, but without the substance.”

  37. BB 1649, I always thought “comradeship among seafarers” was the most likely explanation for the border incursion. Iif confirmed, it raises so many questions about Morrison’s conduct. I dont believe this will end well for him.

  38. How amazeballs has today been? It started off with me working out how to get free book downloads onto my kobo and has ended with me being given free visuals of Aus V SA Test!

    The weekend can’t possibly get any better.

  40. Watching cricket without having to put up with the idiotic Channel 9 commentary is truly a joy. Loving the fact Mikey Holding and Tom Moody are in the commentary box for this series. If I never have to listen to Slats and Heals do their “comedy” shtick again I’ll be a happy man.

  42. [If I never have to listen to Slats and Heals do their “comedy” shtick again I’ll be a happy man.]

    So with you madcyril.

    The Ch9 commentary this summer was appalling. The sooner Ch9 can poach Mark Waugh and Damian Fleming, the better IMO.

  43. [The Ch9 commentary this summer was appalling. The sooner Ch9 can poach Mark Waugh and Damian Fleming, the better IMO.]

    Agree with you there confessions. It’s amazing how enjoyable it is to listen to a grown up commentary team. It really highlights how crap the 9 commentary has become.

  44. Insiders tomorrow

    On #insiders tmrw, Barrie Cassidy interviews @ScottMorrisonMP. Talks #auspol with @latingle @farrm51 Kerry-Anne Walsh. 9am ABC1 @ABCNews24

  45. [On #insiders tmrw, Barrie Cassidy interviews @ScottMorrisonMP. ]

    And so Scrote gets another chance to not say anything. Wot a session to look forward to. 🙂

    Still will be interesting to see how things go if Cassidy can keep it focused on the diplomacy stuff ups rather than “on water matters”.

  46. imacca

    BCassidy will probably ask Morriscum questions re him touring Naval bases. Morriscum will reiterate the success of Operation Sovereign Borders by telling us nothing due to “on water” matters.
    I wont hold my breath for Cassidy to hold Morriscum to account. Not sure if I shall bother tuning in

  47. Mr Bodgie! Thank you for the cricket link. Havent been this giddy happy joy joy since i figured out how to watch The Daily Show and Colbert!

    Sweeeeet!

  49. I will wait for the descriptions on PB. If anybody notices Cassidy growing some cojones, please let me know. I don’t know if they ever grow back after they have been handed to the forces of darkness.

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