Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,892 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Having seen Shorten perform a bit more in recent times, he comes across as arrogant and smarmy.

    I said some time ago I wouldn’t buy a used car from him, and I think many of my fellow Australians are coming to the same conclusion!

  2. All gone to the GRNs, bupkiss to the Tories.

    So yes: looks like Shorten needs to come out of his corner and take a couple of swings.

  3. So the focus for the murdoch media of this poll will no doubt be Shorten’s drop in approval.
    Writes itself really.
    No word on Abbott’s approval ratings?

  4. Shorten is doing well. He’s articulate, cool and calm and can cut through.

    I’m not worried by his fall in approval in one poll at all.

  5. Reposted from last thread – re addressing eligible voting.

    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 10:53 pm | PERMALINK

    Earlier today, and I’m sorry I’ve almost forgotten who it was, maybe Tricot, who made the comment about wtte the paucity of those voting in Griffith.

    And, the corollary, about 15% or so not bothering to vote at all.

    Maybe it’s the AEC’s fault for striking eligible voters off the register.

    Back in the day, when I was a youngster who had to enrol to vote, I was always enrolled in my parents’ electorate.

    – that is, I wasn’t forced to enrol, nor did my Secondary College organise a Tax File Number for me – but no matter where I lived, I was always able to vote, absentee or not.

    Nobody was following me, nobody was tracing me. I could always vote as a McMillan voter no matter where I resided.

    Today, my youngest has moved about 3 times in the past 12 months. Each time, he is traced by the Commonwealth and removed from the electoral roll and has to ACTIVELY get re-enrolled.

    FFS, most kids move all over the place between the ages of 16 and 30, before they come home to roost, and with every change of address they’re expected to update the electoral roll.

    What with every other ID card, bank stuff, drivers licence, where their car is garaged, broadband access by newphone, myki, etc, unless they’re very organised (or female 😆 ) their electoral enrolment is going to be the last thing to do.

    And, if they haven’t organised a forwarding address they’re struck off the roll until they re-enrol at their new address/electorate.

    How does this situation get addressed? I.E. where eligible voters are forced OFF the roll.

  6. The good news for Shorten is that he is not a drag on the ALP vote! His approval and the ALP primary are the same: 35%.

    Not good, but consistent :devil:

  7. So, despite all the pushing by the COALition, the noise over the boats, and what not, the ALP still lead in the Polls.
    Once the news over the demise of our Auto industry washes through, along with SPC/A and even more job loses, one would expect the COALS polling to move even further south.

  8. Will Plibersek be able to take the mantle next year, that is the question……who else? Albo? Dreyfuss? Could Rudd be re-recruited? :devil:

  9. shorten is not a smart dresser or smart talker – he has no turn of phrase or suit – no glamour in appearance or language – is this the best?

  10. No, Shorten should just stay quiet. The Fibs and Murdoch would love him to stick his head over the parapet so there is someone else to talk about instead of Tony Rotten Abbott.

    Don’t take the bait, Bill.

  11. So this gummints sole concern is totally the same….getting elected…no idea about what they do once they get there….oh thats right…get rid of any opposition…ALP…unions ABC anyone else?

  12. Everything,
    The wheels of the bus go round and round, round and round.
    The wheels of the bus go round and round, all the way down.

  13. ML, if Shorten comes across as “smarmy and arrogant” what do we make of Abbott ?
    Apart from being a mean and tricky little liar ?

  14. vic

    Thanks. We’re all okay.

    Like you, I had rellies in other areas more under threat than my own location.

    That would be, for me, Invergorden and Numurkah, near Shepparton.

    They’re all okay too, thankfully.

    Umm, however,

    [Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%.]

    Oh dear, now we have to comment on the LOTO’s “honeymoon”. Oh FFS. Anything to distract from Abbott’s absolutely appalling performance as PM, and his party’s dive in the polls since September 7.

    Preserve us from Spinsville.

  15. [Simon Katich
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Come on Everything. I stayed up for this, got anything better than that?]

    Not really, have been busy tonight, just logged in a minute after the Newspoll was posted (not bad efficiency, eh?) 🙂

  16. Everything, I am waiting…Maybe something like “If he stays leader any longer it will Shorten the odds for Tony”.

    I am with you davidwh, nothing to get excited about, and Newspoll after all.

  17. @Mod lib/24

    Considering your favorite Turnbull has been pretty much turned into french-fries, I wouldn’t be making fun of what Labor does or does not.

    Both Abbott & Turnbull are playing the who can fool the electorate more with emotions longer.

  18. [Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    ML, if Shorten comes across as “smarmy and arrogant” what do we make of Abbott ?
    Apart from being a mean and tricky little liar ?]

    He comes across as a buffoon to me, but I might have a little bias :devil:

  19. I repeat: (for our long lost Fib friends)
    How does Tony Abbott sleep at night?
    On a spiral staircase.

    How does Tony Abbott sleep at night?
    First he lies on one side and then he lies on the other.

    How does Tony Abbott sleep in the day?
    To the lullaby of the division bells ringing.

  20. Newspoll

    2PP 51-49 to Labor
    Primaries: ALP 35, Coalition 41, Greens 12, Other 12

    Better PM: Abbott 41, Shorten 33

    Abbot: Satisfied 40, Dissatisfied 45
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 35

  21. Shanahan’s spin – remarkably fails to mention Abbotts PPM

    [BILL Shorten’s personal standing has slumped and Labor’s primary vote has fallen during a Christmas parliamentary break dominated by corporate closures, job losses, union corruption and controversy over the Coalition’s handling of industry aid and asylum-seekers. For the first time since mid-October, voter satisfaction with the Opposition Leader and his party has stopped rising and has reversed, with satisfaction with Mr Shorten down 9 percentage points last weekend to 35 per cent as Labor’s primary vote dropped three points to 35 per cent.]

  22. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod lib/24

    Considering your favorite Turnbull has been pretty much turned into french-fries, I wouldn’t be making fun of what Labor does or does not.

    Both Abbott & Turnbull are playing the who can fool the electorate more with emotions longer.]

    Did you not watch QandA?

    Every time he spoke there was silence and all eyes turned to him.

    Even the other panelists gazed longingly in his direction when he graced us with his wisdom.

    The ALP might crow all they like, but a little shudder of fear must be there that the prospect of him taking over the leadership is not completely extinguished and if he did take the leadership, then EVERY ALP seat, irrespective of how few there are, comes into play.


  23. Psephos made a comment to the effect that the lower than expected vote for Labor in Griffith was partly the result of all the fuss in the media about the ABC reporting on asylum seekers. I think he might be right. And it’s not the rights or wrongs of the ABC reporting that matters to most people. Its more noise about asylum seekers and many people are heartily sick of both the asylum seeker issue and asylum seekers, and whenever the issue is raised they think badly of Labor and somewhat positively of the coalition.
    So if the ABC was actually biassed towards Labor, they would avoid all mention of the asylum seeker issue, because that would improve the Labor vote.

  24. Kezza2

    I have family and friends in the Wallan Kilmore area. So far all okay.

    Abbott is counting on the RC to cut Labor and Shorten down to size. The objective is to damage Labor for a generation.
    Abbott and his cronies disgust me.

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