With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
The Shoalhaven RFD have dispatched 27 personnel to Renmark South Australia to join with other and man vehicles supplied by the Lower Western & MIA areas. South 26 STL is Group 2 XXX South 27 STL is Group 1 XXXX.
They will be undertaking a 5 day commitment and have flown out of HMAS Albatross at 1800 hrs today. ETA will be from 2030 – 2130 hrs depending upon refuelling stops. We do not know which fire they will be working on, however reports indicate fresh lightning strikes are appearing daily. A forecast weather change will make thing difficult and we wish them a safe journey and quick return.
zoid,
Seeing as it is you that is talking in riddles, then perhaps you are the one that has a dose of the Mod Libs.
There’s something lost in this pathetic turn back the boats policy.
Haven’t we been told over and over again that people smugglers the worst of the worst criminals?
Who face five-year mandatory imprisonment for their felonies?
Is not the Australian government complicit in such a felony by making, by definition, a “criminal people smuggler” the master of an Australian lifeboat to return AS to Indonesia, and then abscond with the lifeboat?
Kezza2
This point has been mentioned here, but i have yet to hear anything in the msm
Kezza,
I noticed you were asking about a real estate purchase the other day. You haven’t been around when I’ve been on the Board since then.
kezza2 – we have also been told over and over again that press releases and media conferences provide information and intelligence to the people smugglers.
Now it appears this type of information/intelligence gathering by the people smugglers only started on September 7 2013.
Before this date the smugglers were to stupid and ignorant to use the constant, almost daily, press conferences held by Abbott and Morrison where they raved and ranted about boat arrivals as intelligence gathering etc.
The reality is – the Abbott Govt is treating the voters like they are morons whose memory was wiped on Sept 7 and history started with the election of the inept Abbott
While the human cargo of the boats has been stopped from landing, they’re still coming, despite the monsoon season.
Which begs the question of the success of the Rudd/Gillard crackdown.
It seems to me desperate people will always do desperate things to escape their desperate circumstances.
I thought the Malaysia solution had merit. At the very least it would have provided an orderly queue.
But I no longer agree with either party’s hard-line strategy. Especially when hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria, Iraq, and from the African continent, are pouring daily into other countries without the overt demonisation of these people from the host countries as we are subjected to in Australia.
Bloody pathetic, all round.
AA,
We have always lived under the inept Abbott Government!
kezza
[I thought the Malaysia solution had merit.]
I’d rather be in Malaysia than Nauru or PNG.
Col. Scoot is on the boatphone to Three-Star-Rating:
“Gad, sir! Those Indonesian tour guides have a bit of a hide, eh what? Instead of bringing their clients to Bali for a holiday, they end up on a beach on Christmas Island! Never catch our chappies getting that lost…No, by George, sir!”
Hi GG
Yes, I’ve been away for a while. I wasn’t sure if you were about when I asked the question about strata titles.
On the unfortunate death of my BIL, just prior to Christmas, it was my younger son’s good fortune to be his sole beneficiary.
My son asked for my financial advice!!
I have never owned property, never owned shares, and my only experience with a financial advisor was with my corrupt brother who stole half a million smackeroos from the family – my faith in financial advisors is the same as my faith in organised religions – non existent.
Given most financial advice columns, always suggests paying out a mortgage first, I was under the impression that paying for a property outright, i.e. having no mortgage, was the thing to do.
I have been since told that that’s a ridiculous notion, something something something to do with negative gearing.
I just don’t understand. I want my kid to make a sound investment, but don’t want him to make a rod for his back.
I saw a couple of strata title units that were under lease in my area, that would have given him ownership, if that’s the right term, and still have about $50,000 to invest elsewhere – whilst giving him some experience as an owner.
So, that was my question.
Here’s the page where Alex Somlyay’s wife is listed under two different names. pic.twitter.com/HLsA2P172E
Marriage is a sacred historical ceremony with strong links to religion, but in the modern society has little impact on day to day lives.
I ask then, why do Gay people want to rubbish this sacred religious ceremony with their own version?
While much of the US has had super freezing conditions, in California it has been a very warm winter and a crippling drought:
[California Watches Bad Drought Grow Worse
NORDEN, Calif. — Cattle ranchers have had to sell portions of their herd for lack of water. Sacramento and other municipalities have imposed severe water restrictions. Wildfires broke out this week in forests that are usually too wet to ignite. Ski resorts that normally open in December are still closed; at one here in the Sierra Nevada that is open, a bear wandered onto a slope full of skiers last week, apparently not hibernating because of the mild weather.
On Friday, Gov. Jerry Brown made it official: California is suffering from a drought, perhaps one for the record books. The water shortage has Californians trying to deal with problems that usually arise in midsummer.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/us/as-californias-drought-deepens-a-sense-of-dread-grows.html?hp&_r=0
[There’s something lost in this pathetic turn back the boats policy.
Haven’t we been told over and over again that people smugglers the worst of the worst criminals?
Who face five-year mandatory imprisonment for their felonies?
Is not the Australian government complicit in such a felony by making, by definition, a “criminal people smuggler” the master of an Australian lifeboat to return AS to Indonesia, and then abscond with the lifeboat?]
Well put, I tried to make the same point the other day, the hypocrisy of the libs on this is only exceeded by their incompetence.
[Marriage is a sacred historical ceremony with strong links to religion, but in the modern society has little impact on day to day lives.
I ask then, why do Gay people want to rubbish this sacred religious ceremony with their own version?]
60 years ago this might have been a good argument, but there have been decades of marriage without god since then. So really wrong but would have been right 50 years ago would probably be your best ever post.
Australia sends people home all the time… usually by this big flying things with wings… what are they called again… oh yes Airplanes.
No claims of people smuggling by the left on that one.
Sean
As Andrew Sullivan (An American Conservative) pointed out that being in favor of SSM is really the correct conservative position as conservatives are suppose to support the family unit.
Now this brings me to the institution of marriage which has been greatly weakened by rising divorce rates, domestic violence and cases of child neglect.
It is quite possible that SSM might actually strengthen the institution of marriage as it is suppose to be the coming together of two people that are committed to one an other.
The greatest threat to the institution of Marriage does not come from SSM but from when marriages go wrong.
[Australia sends people home all the time… usually by this big flying things with wings… what are they called again… oh yes Airplanes.
No claims of people smuggling by the left on that one.]
I think the bit you are missing is the ‘home’ – Indonesia is not home for these people.
Sean
Did you ever answer MTBW question as to what is a Leftie
[Is not the Australian government complicit in such a felony by making, by definition, a “criminal people smuggler” the master of an Australian lifeboat to return AS to Indonesia, and then abscond with the lifeboat?]
So then, if the crew of a leaky Indonesian fishing boat make it to Christmas Island they are jailed as people smugglers.
However, if they are intercepted before they reach CI, they are rewarded with a free high quality vessel (i.e. a lifeboat) in place of their own leaky boat.
What a lurk that could turn out to be. Grab a few friends and set out on your old leaky boat, get intercepted by the RAN and return home with a new boat worth much more.
WWP
[I think the bit you are missing is the ‘home’]
Yep, dumb as.
Its Sean the Wallmaker.
Strata Titles come with Body Corporates who’s task is to manage jointly owned areas of a particular development.
These include things like parking, rubbish bin management and the commonly owned gardens. They also control the outside facade of a unit (prevents someone painting purple their unit when everything else is white). Some BCs have more stringent rules around noise, children visiting and every arcane thing you could imagine.
So, they are a type of individual site council. Owners pay a fee per year or annually as BCs are usually run by a Company. If you are looking at buying a unit under a strata title I’d get your solicitor to check out the BC for any strange requirements.
As an investment, the Banks look at them as OK. However, they sometimes put restrictions on their individual exposure to particular developments.
Re your nephew, I suggest he speak to a qualified Financial Planner and develop an investment strategy. It might cost a couple of hundred bucks, but it is always good to consult a professional in these situations.
Kezza2
Its best to go with gut instinct, if their is a mortgage reducing it is a good move, if you seek too buy shares focus on areas that you are interested in and remember if it sounds too good then it most likely is too good.
Before investing in the share market maybe play the ASX share game, its run twice a year and its free, you receive a pretend $50k amount of money and it is a good way to buy and sell shares.
Well there you go, it’s official.
The useless Abbott has caused substantial damage to the Indo-Oz relationship.
“But in the book, Dr Yudhoyono makes it clear Mr Abbott’s handling of the affair and his refusal to apologise over the furore had caused the most significant damage to the bilateral relationship in recent times, and had also hurt him personally.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/sby-felt-betrayed-by-best-friend-tony/story-fn3dxix6-1226804809771
[I ask then, why do Gay people want to rubbish this sacred religious ceremony with their own version?]
Because it’s all a part of our lefty agenda to ruin your life.
Carey Moore@1677
ST has a life?
[victoria
Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 2:25 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza2
This point has been mentioned here, but i have yet to hear anything in the msm]
Yeah, I’m sure I’m not the first person to raise this query (re the felonious behaviour of the Aust govt re people smugglers) on this blog.
And I can’t understand why the experienced journos haven’t connected the dots.
Anyway, how have you been handling the heat? It was persecutory here, until I remember to lower the holland blinds. Immediate 10 degree relief.
Lots of icy poles and icy water. Even put cold water in the foot bath. Helped keep the blood pressure down enormously. Fans only here, I’m afraid.
Funny story.
Back on Black Saturday, I was terrified for my life, but more terrified for the animals under my care.
While we never suffered a fire, I was determined to move from Willow Grove. And so I moved to Motown 3 years ago.
Yesterday, whilst checking CFA Twitter Updates, there was a fire warning for Westbury (just a couple of k’s from Motown) and one for Willow Grove.
I rang a couple of my friends to offer accommodation if they had to evacuate. Both die-hard Nationals voters.
First friend was quite blase, although had offered to help evacuate those in its immediate path (this was the O’Briens/Embleton Road fire) and the wind direction was not threatening his property.
(He rang about 11.30pm last night to thank me for the offer – and to say he was watching the Westbury fire from his balcony – and it was headed my way! because of the wind change)
The other friend was not in the immediate path either, but told me her husband, who’d been out of work since losing a TAFE teaching position under Baillieu, had found work constructing the infrastructure for the next Grand Prix at Albert Park. The catch? He had to join a union.
She and her husband are ferociously anti-union.
When I laughed grandly at that, she declared the outrageous costs of the GP was because of the union.
Ya can’t win. You can only laugh.
Thanks to today’s weather, both fires are well under control.
[I think the bit you are missing is the ‘home’ – Indonesia is not home for these people.]
Indonesia let them into their country.
These illegals came from Indonesia.
The boats are illegally sailed into Australian waters by Indonesian crew.
Logic says they should therefore be sent back from whence they came.
It’s just as if you try to illegally enter Australia at the airport without a valid visa, they put you on a plane back to where you left.
[Because it’s all a part of our lefty agenda to ruin your life.]
Or just hearing him scream “Unicorn, over there” is fun.
[Logic says they should therefore be sent back from whence they came.]
I think that is called racism and stupidity not logic.
[It’s just as if you try to illegally enter Australia at the airport without a valid visa, they put you on a plane back to where you left.]
Only if you are entitled to go there, these people are entitled to go to Indonesia.
Sean
Indonesia has such a large population and large border that they don’t place the same value on people moving around as you do. They have more important concerns.
I mean are NOT entitled to go back to Indonesia. If Abbott, Morrison and their pet liberal general want to sail them back to their home country … go for it knock yourselves out.
Who would ever have thought Bernie was a Union official
[I think that is called racism]
That line gets used so often by the left when they are losing the argument it has lost all meaning.
Indonesia LET THESE PEOPLE INTO THEIR COUNTRY.
They can therefore take them BACK. Saying it’s no longer their problem because Indonesia handed out a visa to illegal immigrants isn’t good enough I’m afraid.
Picking up on a point made earlier that Abbott and Morrison are complicate in the people smuggling by now providing boats, it is only a continuation of how they aided and abetted the smugglers when they were in Opposition
Re Malaysia Solution: I always though that the plan had merit – certainly better than turning back boats on the high seas and all the risks and difficulties that this incurs, as we are seeing now.
At a time when asylum seeker arrivals were running at about 100 per week (about 5,000 arrivals in 2010-11), it could have served as a circuit breaker – who would risk their life savings and find themselves in the first 800. The pattern of arrivals in the couple of months after it was announced seem to bear this out.
We should be negotiating a series of these types of deals with transit counties. The Government’s ham-fisted approach since it gain office has probably killed any chance of that, even if it were to change its mind.
[Indonesia LET THESE PEOPLE INTO THEIR COUNTRY.]
So what they have made it clear they don’t want them back any more than you want them. So they don’t want them, you don’t want them.
isnt the term “illegal” so lovely and eloquent when referring to vulnerable men, women, and children, Sean ?
so, what is so illegal about them Sean ?
My guess, the colour of their skin.
That’s it, isn’t it Sean
[So what they have made it clear they don’t want them back any more than you want them. So they don’t want them, you don’t want them.]
Abbott’s version of “Pass the Parcel”.
It comes so naturally to you all to take Indonesia’s side against Australia’s. I honestly find myself a bit disturbed by it.
Do you hate Tony Abbott and the coalition that much? Or is it just general progressive self-hatred and the desire to identify with the apparently virtuous “oppressed” in the Third World at work?
Whatever it is, it is not a pleasant spectacle.
@Sean/1667
If you have proof that Australia sends people home all the time, do provide cost of that to the tax payer without their knowledge of being another “tax”?
ST
[I ask then, why do Gay people want to rubbish this sacred religious ceremony with their own version? ]
Question-begging …
1.Is there any evidence at all that gays seeking the right to marry want to rubbish the concept of marriage? It seems completely counter-intuitive.
2. Is there any evidence that marriage is inevitably a sacred religious ceremony? If they indeed have ‘their own version’ then doesn’t that undermine claims that religious ceremonies are being undermined in some way?
3. Is it not the case that at least some gays are religious? If their religion inclines them to seek the sacrament of marriage, doesn’t this affirm rather than undermine marriage?
4. Is it reasonable to say that all gays have a single version of marriage anyway given that not all heterosexuals have the same version of marriage?
I note in passing that a lesbian couple with whom I’m acquainted who are not particularly keen on the idea of marriage are considering it to satisfy the sensibilities of the ultra-religious mother of one of them who wants them to avoid ‘living in sin’. This seemed amusing to me but I can see her argument.
[That line gets used so often by the left when they are losing the argument it has lost all meaning.]
Just like that stupid idiot who called me racist for using the terms “anglo” and “white bread” when making a sociological observation. I think his name was Sean.
GG & Mex
Thanks for your advice.
But GG you didn’t really give me anything that I didn’t know. Although I did call another friend who was in the banking industry who advised same re spending a couple of hundred bucks on financial planning (with a bank).
What’s your position on outright ownershiip versus mortgage/negative gearing?
Mex, yeah, I saw that $50G pretend share market thingo. I’m a bit wary of suggesting that to my gaming son.
He and his mates thought they were going to win Gamers Of The Year or somesuch and devoted all their time to the game (and failed uni that year) while the Yanks cleaned everyone up. Hate to think he’d win at the pretend game, then lose everything for real.
[Do you hate Tony Abbott and the coalition that much?]
It isn’t so much hate, as disgust and disappointment at his dishonesty, incompetence and lack of respect for his country.
[So what they have made it clear they don’t want them back any more than you want them. So they don’t want them, you don’t want them.]
If they didn’t want them why did they let them in and give them a visa?
It’s a bullshit line from a bullshit country filled full of corruption.
The left regurgitating it just make you look desperate and anti-Australian.
Murdoch through his Oz newspaper has become a bit hard to predict lately.
On the one hand they still have Sheridan today parroting JBishop on how severe cuts to foreign aid are good (after his earlier pieces priaising Abbott’s diplomatic skills).
On the other hand, they are running hard on the RAN’s incursions into Indonesia’s territorial waters. The story this afternoon on SBY’s book lambasting Abbott could have been ignored but was not.
It does appear that Abbott had better ‘extract the digit’ to remain in Murdoch’s good books, lest the latter undermine him further in favour of someone more to Murdoch’s liking.