With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
BK
The Minister for defence is staying quiet for good reason. While the faeces is hitting the fan he can sit back and say “nothing to do with me”
The said minister, David Johnston, is a lightweight anyway and probably not really up to the job. Another product of the talent deprived WA branch of the liberal party.
Just imagine The Australian and the Daily Telegraph if the Indonesian incursions had occurred under Rudd or Gillard!
Tony Abbott should now be on to his second toothbrush since the election. Assuming, that is, the Prime Minister follows the manufacturer’s recommendation to change his bristle stick every three months. Maybe he has one of those fuzzy-topped numbers, a favourite colour kept in a jar, well-used in the night-time and morning ritual. Or perhaps he is the kind of person to swap the brush every few weeks with each new tube of paste.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/brushing-off-voters-climate-fears-would-be-a-foolish-move-20140117-310d4.html
BK
The hysteria would be at fever pitch right now
Two pressers coming up on 24
Jay Weatherill and Julie Bishop. I missed exactly when. Assume in next hour
[No but take some care of yourself and don’t blame the government for violence in districts where there is drugs and lots of young stupid people in a courting ritual. I’d be quite happy to outlaw nightclubs but those that use them might consider it infringes on their rights.]
Yes all king hits and violences are caused by drugs (!1!!!11!1), not alcohol which was made by Jesus.
And most people who go to nightclubs actually dance and listen to Music (ha music, its not real music).
I agree with this guy …
[LIKE most Australians, I enjoy a drink on social occasions.
However, as a father and as a citizen, I’m appalled by the violent binge drinking culture that now seems so prevalent, especially at “hot spots” in our big cities.
…
We’ve got two problems. The first problem is the binge drinking culture which has become all too prevalent among youngsters over the last couple of decades. I’m realistic enough to know that young people won’t always be perfect and that making mistakes along the way is a normal part of growing up.
I certainly made a few mistakes as a younger man and have got into some embarrassing situations.
However, there’s a world of difference between having two or three drinks a night and occasionally a bit more on a Saturday night and this new binge culture which sees young people drinking nothing from one week to the next and then, when they drink, not knowing when or how to stop.
The second problem is the rise of the disturbed individual who goes out looking not for a fight but for a victim.
and STEROIDS!!!]
..clearly he’s right (or far right.)
zoid,
So, what!
My considered insights and thought provoking contributions are not rants. You must have been thinking about your posts.
Would you prefer a secret star chamber process?
Sean – how many relationships have you had with Man-Goats?
Link for the above quote:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/exclusive-prime-minister-tony-abbotts-plea-to-end-drunken-street-violence-across-australia/story-fni0cx12-1226798595843
[So are Man-Goat Relationships.]
Nope. Completely invalid comparison.
Stop being stupid.
hope that in the debacle of Operation Where Are The borders someone has remembered to check the beach at CI for invaders!
Bishop presser shortly 24 did video cross
[This is not inequality… this is just how things are always have been.]
Ah, so since its traditional its ok?? For someone who was the champion of political correctness a few posts ago ST, that’s a pretty odd statement.
Still….considering you are a complete moron thats understandable.
And on the RI incursions:
[“This is a command and control issue inside Operation Sovereign Borders.”
The boxes are drawn in Canberra but each vessel is equipped with sophisticated global positioning systems that should have warned them of a potential incursion.]
Wow, blame going to get laid firmly on the Minister responsible for Sov Blunders i think. I think the signs are that the Navy aint taking no spanking and will give the Govt no cover for this one.
Jules
I too was worried about the goats thing. Why is that Tories are so worried about relationships with animals. I have to say it has never crossed my mind.
Bishop on now live 24
[So are Man-Goat Relationships.
Nope. Completely invalid comparison.
Stop being stupid.]
He’s not so much being stupid as channeling that hero of the loony right, Beasty Boy Bernardi. 🙂
Mesma is sonding just like a robot. ABC24 presser.
Sean @1600 – the only person talking about relationships with animals is Cori Bernadi.
Mesma justifying cutting aid. ho-hum. 🙁
According to the Oz, Bishop will be crapping on about the govts foreign aid cuts. Dressed up as “re-calibrating” spend levels and priorities but in reality a massive cut.
The western sydney bogans will love it of course, those damn foreigners get far too much of our cash and all that.
[Mesma is sonding just like a robot.]
I noticed that. Interesting that she still sounds like a Shadow Minister. Certainly getting all the buzzwords out. ALP waste, haphazard, handout culture……..
Wish we could hear the journo’s questions. 🙁
Speaking of man-goat relationships.
An old man walks into a pub in Scottland, his feet shuffling, his back bent. He drags himself onto a stool and orders a beer. Placing the full glass in front of him, the bartender inquires upon his sad face.
The man answers with a smoky and trembling voice and a Scottish accent:
Ah, tell ya man! This pub, this very pub we’re just sitting in. I built it, with me own hands! But do they call me the Pubmaker? Naa!
See the wall over there, that protects our town? I built it, with me own hands! But do they call me the Wallmaker?
And the bridge, you know, that crosses our river, I built it, with me own hands! But do they call me the Bridgemaker?
But I tell ya, man! YOU FUCK ONE GOAT!
@GG/1607
No, just get on with the debate.
Provoking or otherwise is just an annoyance on PB.
Yes Mesma, you have sent an apology, but does it actually mean anything if you are going to ignore what Indonesia wants out of this.
How are you going to ensure “it” doesn’t happen again. By sending small orange Australian flagged boats loaded with non-Indonesian nationals over their borders at random intervals??
@Henry/1620
How is that any different multinationals suing Australia Commonwealth and getting large amounts of cash that way?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/11/australia-would-let-multinationals-sue
zoid,
So, why are you doing it?
I thought “thought provocation” was the whole purpose of PB. You seem to be advocating an echo chamber.
Imacca
Of course bishop still sounds like a shadow minister. The Tories didn’t waste a minute in six years working up a policy of their own so you can’t expect them to come up with something in a few months.
[The Tories didn’t waste a minute in six years working up a policy of their own so you can’t expect them to come up with something in a few months.]
True, silly me! 🙂
ST
[Can someone explain to me why the … ABC insists on calling a “Cowards Punch” a “Single Punch attack”?]
It’s more descriptive. It gives more salient specification to the event. It’s less rhetorical.
Did Mesma get any questions about the Indonesian incursions? I couldn’t stand watching her.
Sean,
In relation to your {idiotic) comment about marriage always being 1man-1woman, you are wrong.
Polyandry was and still is, accepted practice in some parts of the world. One woman has many husbands. Marriage means whatever the culture wants it to mean. Our culture is not conducive to multiple spouses and cannot even protect the ones in monogamous marriages, nor their children. So polygamy/polyandry would also be dangerous in our culture.
Addressing our appalling record of domestic violence and harm to children, characterised by the one death per week (average) I regard as more important than shoring up the institution that creates this problem, would be a better use of your time.
The most dangerous location for a woman is in her home, and her most likely murderer is the man who sleeps next to her.
http://io9.com/5925324/polyandry-or-the-practice-of-taking-multiple-husbands
Re 1629: the ABC is using neutral language, saying in its news bulletins exactly what happened. It should be doing this all the time.
Sean Tisme,
I suggest we change the marriage vows for the bride to:
“Till death do up part, even if you murder me.”
If you are going to use the christian bible as a reference for marriage, it is certainly not one man and one woman exclusively.
Solomon, for example, had 700 wives and 300 concubines.
Wikipedia:
[ The first polygamist mentioned in the Bible is Lamech, whose two wives were Adah and Zillah (Gen 4:19). Abraham’s wives were Sarah, Hagar (Gen 16:3, 21:1-13), Keturah (Gen 25:1), and concubines (Gen 25:6) (who are referred to as “wives” in other parts of the Bible[citation needed]). Jacob’s four wives are Leah and Rachel (Gen 29:28) and despite an oath with their father Laban to not take any additional wives (Gen 31:48-54), Jacob took Bilhah (Gen 30:4) and Zilpah (Gen 30:9). Moses’ two wives were Zipporah (Ex 2:21, Ex 18:1-6) and an Ethiopian woman (Num 12:1). Interestingly enough, Aaron and Miriam were punished for disapproving of Moses’ forbidden marriage. Gideon “had many wives” (Judges 8:29-32). Elkanah, Samuel’s father, had two wives, Hannah and Peninnah (1 Samuel 1:1-2). An accurate list of David’s wives would include at least five named wives: Michal (1 Sam 18:27, 19:11-18, 25:44; 2 Sam 3:13-14, 6:20-23), Abigail of Carmel (1 Sam 25:39, 1 Chr 3:1), Ahinoam of Jezreel (1 Sam 25:43, 1 Chr 3:1), Eglah (2 Sam 3:4-5) and Bathsheba (2 Sam 12:24). Three additional women are mentioned, but we are not told if they are wives or concubines: Maacah (2 Sam 3:3, 1 Chr 3:2), Abital (2 Sam 3:4, 1 Chr 3:3) and Haggith (2 Sam 3:3, 1 Chr 3:2). Lastly, there are the ten concubines, or wives as they are referred to in 2 Sam 5:13, 15:16, 16:21-23, 1 Chr 14:3, bringing David’s total to 18 “wives/concubines”. According to 1 Kings 11:3, David’s son Solomon had 700 wives and 300 concubines. ]
Sean:
for the man
“To have and to hold and possible strangle”
“Till death do us part, if I feel like it”
Jay Weatherall is announcing immediate support for those affected by the fires in SA. Pledging to work with individual families and to not “leave them behind”.
Just like Barnett, eh?
If we are getting on to taking words as read in the Bible, then both gay sex and marijuana are permitted.
Leviticus:
[If a man lies with another man as he does a woman, both shall be stoned.]
@GG/1626
Heard of taste your own medicine? If not I suggest looking it after.
After getting beating around the bush by Mod Lib and Co, I expected better from others, I guess not.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1637
LOL!
[If a man lies with another man as he does a woman, both shall be stoned.]
Am I the only one who finds that phrase ambiguous? If a man doesn’t lie with women, then you would think that even if you “lie with another man”, you’re fine, as it’s not how he would lie with a woman.
[If a man lies with another man as he does a woman, both shall be stoned.]
Doesn’t the Leviticus verse mean that men lie to each other when stoned, but always lie to women regardless of their state of mind?
What’s the Bible’s position on party drugs and threesomes? Asking for a friend 😛
Carey
[What’s the Bible’s position on party drugs and threesomes? Asking for a friend 😛 ]
“If I speak with human eloquence and angelic ecstasy but don’t love, I’m nothing but the creaking of a rusty gate.”
Your friend has the go-ahead from 1 Corinthians 13
zoid
You need to be careful with ModLib.
One of her favorite things is to provoke someone enough to get them banned.
A nifty guide to Biblical marriage.
http://robertcargill.com/2011/10/11/what-exactly-is-biblical-marriage/
rossmcg@1614
I have found that when an employer stresses the need for staff loyalty, watch your back – the employer will be the one who is disloyal to their staff.
EDITORIAL
Immigration Minister Scott Morrison would have us believe there are several captains of either Royal Australian Navy or Customs and Border Protection vessels who get a bit lost at sea. They sail out of Australia’s territorial zone, across international waters, and ”inadvertently” and ”unintentionally” amble in and out of Indonesian waters. Do they need a compass? Did someone forget to fit these vessels with a global positioning system? It is difficult to accept that highly trained and experienced captains, operating close to sensitive foreign borders, don’t seem to know where they are.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/have-we-lost-our-bearings-entirely-20140117-310de.html#ixzz2qiRVzfX8
vic
They must have happened in daylight when they couldn’t get their bearings of the stars.
To those who think the conservatives themselves think the “boat policy” is in disarray, think again.
Liberal mouthpiece in the West news paper, Paul Murray, has come out this morning in an article to claim, quite assertively, that Abbott has indeed, “stopped the boats”.
I did not read his one-sided piece beyond the headline as he has long ago given up any pretence at balance and being nothing more than a propaganda tool of the Liberals.
The issue is not followed breathlessly by most and quite a few letters to the editor from some of the the great unwashed make it plain they don’t care if they are told about what the navy is doing with the boats or not.
Our resident Tory, while mouthing off loads of rubbish has, I think, got it about right with what he thinks is the attitude of many on the right about boats.
Essentially, they don’t give a damn and the means, as the new ABC program says, justifies the end.
At the height of all this some many months ago, it was not uncommon for some of the extremist on talk-back radio to talk of ‘sinking/shooting the bastards’ as a warning to others.
While all this covers ugly racism in my view, opinion polls have shown that many do not care how harsh is the treatment of AS as long as they don’t come.
‘Standing up to the Indonesians’ is also consistent with a right wing view.
Labor should hammer it was the New Guinea option which may have slowed things down, keep poking fun at the Colonel Blimps and highlight the lies and inconsistencies of the new government.
The Boats is not an issue Labor can win on and the sooner the new government carries the whole can – for good and bad – the better for Labor.
In the long haul, Australia cannot bury its head in the sand, but who on the right of politics is looking further ahead than saving Abbott’s bacon at the moment?
BK
I reckon a senate enquiry is in order
[Mr Morrison triumphantly declares that not one boat-borne person had been transferred to immigration authorities since December 19. That may be correct. What Mr Morrison did not reveal, however, was that a week ago the navy took custody of 56 asylum seekers, photographed and interviewed them over two days, then transferred them to a Border Protection vessel, which held them for a further three days. In all, those asylum seekers were held for five days in Australian custody, on Australia-flagged vessels, before they were loaded onto an Australian lifeboat and sent to sea again. This is a clear abrogation of our responsibilities under the UN convention.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/have-we-lost-our-bearings-entirely-20140117-310de.html#ixzz2qiTPJugZ