BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back – but with only two new poll results to go on, and no sign so far of any change since before the break.

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  3. When the Prime minister of the fay enters the commentary box during one of our greatest cricket triumphs, and can’t stop talking about himself, he doesn’t deserve a bounce. It showed how desperate he is, and how self centred.

  4. [When the Prime minister of the fay enters the commentary box during one of our greatest cricket triumphs, and can’t stop talking about himself, he doesn’t deserve a bounce.]

    Not even the Harold Larwood variety?

  5. William

    Indeed, Abbott may have made far more people happier had he taken to the nets like that english journo against Brett Lee. Lee could then have given him the appropriate bounce.

  6. Vry hot in Adelaide overnight, causing me to wake up early. It was just over 30 degrees at 6 AM, on the way to a forecast 46, equalling the all time record. Is climate change crap, Mr Abbott?

  8. BTW William, I hope you are finishing your PhD. I think there is a career in psephology for you. The number of people who understand the stats and electoral process, and can comment on them intelligently and impartially, is not so high.

  9. Otiose

    Yes, then we would all be hoping for good length deliveries on middle stump 🙂

    Like most bullies, I suspect Abbott is too much of a coward to go out in the middle. That takes actual courage.

  11. Be absolutely careful today, Socrates and other SA bludgers. If it reaches the forecast temp today, it’s going to be very bad.

    Also, make sure any pets are well sheltered and have easy access to plenty of cool, clean water. It’s only just short of 6:30 and my cats already look out of it.

    (Same sentiment applies to other heat wave affected parts of the country)

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    As I said yesterday, they are going further and further down the hole.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-from-indonesia-20140115-30vds.html
    This is an example of the huge costs (revenue decrease) that can result from severe APS cost cutting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/big-business-in-charge-of-own-tax-20140115-30vat.html
    Fun and games in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nucoal-cascade-threaten-to-sue-nsw-government-if-it-cancels-coal-licences-20140115-30v65.html
    What a surprise!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/kings-cross-defies-nsw-violence-trend-20140115-30va6.html
    Cabcharge has always been a racket.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsws-eyes-on-barry-ofarrell-as-victoria-slices-taxi-card-slug-20140115-30v4q.html
    Mr Mogadon in the US saying things that he and his mates never say here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-ranked-one-of-the-three-best-countries-to-do-business-in-20140115-30vaa.html
    As a group these days economists don’t agree with much of what the Coalition says. This is a good read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/economists-dispute-audit-commissions-federal-government-growth-claims-20140115-30v9o.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir doesn’t think O’Farrell is doing much about drunken violence.

    Cathy Wilcox on Morriscum’s weasel words.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope on Abbott’s position on climate change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe – Tony Sheperd and the Hobbitt.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Matt Golding – Abbott open for business.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html

  15. Good morning, heated ones.

    A wonderful 23 deg here with a cool breeze, so I’ve opened up all doors and windows, fed the chooks and am about to bunker down.

    Meanwhile, I took my OH to hospital last night (bronchial infection) so at least he’ll be in a cool place for a few days. Why do so many medical crises happen when the specialists are all on hols??

    And my dear almost blind mother has tipped out all the week’s recycled stuff in the carport to find some birdseed she ‘accidentally’ threw away. I left her to it – makes her cross if I ‘interfere’. 🙂

  16. Re Socrates @6 – Tony Abbott and his cheer squad would say that’s just the normal variation in the weather, records are broken sometimes, blah blah blah.

    On the other hand, had the temperature been 10 degrees this morning on the way to a forecast 18, equalling a cold January record, that would be ‘proof’ that Climate Change is not happening.

  17. William

    [Indeed, Abbott may have made far more people happier had he taken to the nets like that english journo against Brett Lee. Lee could then have given him the appropriate bounce.]

    Lee is apparently a fan of Abbott these days.

  19. CTar1

    Thanks. I’m torn between tears and laughter at the moment. A diary of all the things that go awry in this household might be amusing, but I don’t have the energy.

    And here’s an excellent crit of Pyne’s rubbish.
    [Since federal Education Minister Christopher Pyne’s launch last week of a two-man curriculum review panel, of conservative educationist Kevin Donnelly and conservatively inclined business academic Kenneth Wiltshire, levels of incredulity, derision and cynicism among educators and political commentators (outside News Corp media) have gone off the Richter scale.

    Pyne might as well have announced he was rearranging the communal henhouse by shoving two foxes through its front door. The curriculum history wars, part of the bigger culture wars that have been blighting the Australian cultural and political landscape for more than a decade, were on again.

    The history wars are an invention of the political right which sees hidden ”cultural-leftist” influence at every turn in the government school curriculum, a chimera supported in particular by News Corp’s broadsheet The Australian.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/where-pyne-and-the-neocons-went-wrong-20140115-30v1u.html#ixzz2qV3CwnQB

  23. And from the Land of the Free –

    Weekly upchuck roundup.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/14/upchuckin-away-chuck-the-most-shocking-religion-news-of-the-last-week/
    Brit Hume of FoxNews has a bromance with Chris Christie.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/14/brit-hume-admits-gay-bromance-with-chris-christie/
    How the Repugs have used dog whistles to help wreck the middle class.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/dog-whistle-politics-how-use-coded-racial
    Rush Limbaugh – Christians cannot believe in AGW. One must be agnostic or atheistic to do so. FFS!!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/dog-whistle-politics-how-use-coded-racial
    Jon Stewart really take the piss out of a new FoxNews program, “The Five”.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017169557
    The Vatican to undergo some significant scrutiny from the UN regarding sexual abuse.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/15/vatican-sex-abuse_n_4601167.html

  24. There’s a fairly obvious response to this tactic. Escorting boats back requires a lot of resources. It ties up at least one navy vessel for days.

    Its only a matter of time before the smugglers figure out the best tactic is an old war time one. Organise a floatilla/convoy.

    50 boats all turning up at once. The navy would not have the resources. Most if not nearly all of them would succeed.

  26. BK@13

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    As I said yesterday, they are going further and further down the hole.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-from-indonesia-20140115-30vds.html

    Thank as always BK.

    What I can’t understand is why the AS did not scuttle the boat, forcing the navy to rescue them.

    This scenario has been discussed on PB before as the reason that turning back the boats won’t work – yet it appears to be working fine, at least so far as getting the boats headed back to Indonesia is concerned.

  28. Cud 24

    You are dead right. The visual horizon for a ship at sea is under 20 nautical miles, radar maybe 30. The area we patrol is over 1000 nautical miles. We would need 40 ships. We have less than two dozen ships, and they have to be rotated for servicing. At night there is no chance we could stop them all.

  31. Carey

    my cat seems to be doing a ‘places you never guessed were cool’ tour of the house.

    Yesterday, it was behind the garbage bin in the kitchen. The day before, it was the saucepan cupboard under the sink.

    On a more serious note, having put a sprinkler hose in one chicken enclosure and regularly thrown buckets of water in to cool down the ground in the other, I forgot all about providing water for the free – roaming birds — fortunately they’re good at hinting.

  34. Good Morning

    @smh: Taxpayers have allegedly been defrauded of tens of thousands of dollars by a recently retired Liberal MP. http://t.co/WCnMVa5omo

    “@jonathanvswan: I’m sure the Australian Federal Police will be eager to see the evidence of Mrs Somlyay/Donovan’s 870 hours work between July & December.”

    Everything

    Presdent Obama has just had a huge win

    @nytimes: Breaking News: House Passes $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill and Sends It to Senate
    http://t.co/eqDfdEsmLj

  35. “@bevvo14: Tassie election expected tobe called today @BreakfastNews @ABCNews24”

    Rumoured to be March 15 the same day as South Australia

  36. I hope that all the global warming do-nothings are having a very, very bad day.

    In USA, special provisions are made during heatwaves. I’m not aware that the Vic Gov has thought about protecting the homeless.

  38. China. A 60km long traffic jam. The Nirvana of conservative pollies?

    [Anthony Scott ‏
    This is what happens if you keep building roads & don’t put money into public transport infrastructure.
    #auspol
    pic.twitter.com/8NRuzP0OKt ]

  43. If it reaches the forecast temp today, it’s going to be very bad.]

    Our forecast is for ‘high 40s’ and given we are usually a coupla degrees above that its possible we’ll hit 50.
    Hope not.
    We have been up since before sunrise walking the dogs who otherwise get bored with being housebound.
    Filled the bird baths with water, they are showing their appreciation, and now we’re inside a closed up house with the temperature under the front verandah already at 33.
    Bad day ahead.

  45. Tweet made by SA Premier Jay Weatherill last night:

    [@JayWeatherill: If you’re out and need somewhere to escape from the heat, you’re welcome to step into the foyer of any SA Government building & cool down]

  46. It is good to see the sense shon by the PB folk on heatwave precautions. Hopefully this is a sample of typical behaviour making deaths of people and animals as minimal as possible.

    I have an additional piece of advice for those without air conditioning on this exceptional day. A good day to go to the cinema and watch a couple of movies in air conditioned comfort if you are close enough to do so and animals ok to be left alone. Alternatively visit a friend who has air conditioning.

    Good luck to all.

  47. Don’t worry, folks – global warming is just part of the natural cycle (ordained by God and thus not subject to causation).

    A few thousand years after we’ve gone extinct, the climate will cool again.

    (Totally true – if we go extinct, it will).

  49. Sydney’s missing out on all this heat so far and looks likely to escape this heat wave. For the last few days it’s been brilliant blue skies and cicadas, maxing out in the high 20’s with high humidity near the coast, 30 to 33 away from the Harbour and the beaches but getting into the high 30’s in the outer Western suburbs where all those key voters who worry about ‘boats’ live.

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