Tasmanian election: March 15

Another headache for election watchers as Tasmania again goes to the polls on the same day as South Australia.

Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings has confirmed March 15 as her government’s date with the polls, which for the second successive occasion means a super Saturday on which elections are held in both Tasmania and South Australia. My most recent poll aggregate chart is featured below, encompassing the crudely bias-adjusted results of 14 EMRS and four ReachTEL polls.

UPDATE (17/1): Kevin Bonham and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have typically excellent reviews of the situation, complete with candidate overviews and such. My own overview will appear in Crikey later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

53 comments on “Tasmanian election: March 15”

  1. My candidate guide now has question marks next to eight PUP candidates.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

    Their names were released in an otherwise unheralded video that a few PUP supporters were linking to on Twitter yesterday. I investigated the background to one of them and found a Google trainwreck suggesting due diligence failure by PUP in selecting this candidate. As the candidate had apparently published anti-gay material, I published his Google trainwreck. The video listing the eight candidates has now been taken down.

  2. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/libs-reachtel-not-completely-over-line.html

    Libs’ ReachTEL: Not Completely Over The Line

    An internal ReachTEL the Liberals have released is the first Tasmanian state poll for some time that shows the outcome in any doubt at all.

    My Mark Grewar piece has hit the local limelight:

    These from ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/pup-candidate-defended/5235882?section=tas
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/palmer-united-party-defends-state-poll-candidate-over-social-me/5235278

    This one from Sally Glaetzer (Mercury) is more in-depth and includes the candidate’s responses/excuses:

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/pup-candidate-mark-grewar-in-liberal-party-firing-line/story-fnj4f7k1-1226817089752

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