With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).
The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.
Here’s the definition of ‘King Hit’: http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/king-hit
GG
Using abuse again. Thanks for admitting your argument failed.
[ On the contrary, Sean loves it when the focus is on boats ]
Normally yes, but not in the current circumstances.
[“King hit” is inappropriate as there is nothing “noble” or “Royal” about it.]
Yeah, people are inferring royalty and nobility as much from the term “king hit” as they are from “king cobra”, “drama queen”, and “Burger King”
[It needs a pejorative term that invites contempt from the community generally, and their peers in particular, toward the perpetrator.]
Because they are clearly very concerned with what other people think about them.
In celebration of the Martin Luther King National Holiday —
[Studies affirm that vulnerable groups such as racial minorities, the poor, young kids and elderly are more likely to perceive great risks from natural disasters, but are less likely to heed warnings; experience greater psychological and physical impacts, and are slower to recover. Such groups also experience, at a greater rate, a multitude of extreme weather-climate health issues like heat stress, upper respiratory illnesses, water borne disease, and post-traumatic stress…]
[..I suspect that Dr. King would have viewed this as a civil rights issue too.]
[..All people suffered during Hurricane Katrina, but the faces staring at cameras in the Superdome or on buses headed to Houston disproportionately reflected segments of our population with the least amount of adaptive capacity or resilience. A forthcoming study out of the University of Georgia Department of Geography, to be presented at the upcoming AMS conference, finds that many of the fatalities associated with the well-forecasted Superstorm Sandy were from under-represented groups.]
[…The next time the nation is faced with a devastating tornado outbreak, a major hurricane, extreme urban flooding, or an oppressive heatwave, I encourage us all to reflect on the goals of MLK Day and serve: somebody probably needs our help.]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/17/reflecting-on-mlks-legacy-through-the-lens-of-weather-and-climate/
WeWantPaul@1555
The generally are concerned with what their peer group thinks. They don’t care much about the community at large. Note I quite deliberately did say “peers in particular”.
bemused
All you have to do is describe the attacker as the gutless coward they are. No need to try change terms. The community understands what a gutless coward is.
guytaur,
Now you are becoming delusional as well as quackers.
All you need is to take one job and get a life. I’m sure that will cure you.
Re King Hits and other violence – maybe something along the lines of the NSW Roads & Traffic Authority ‘Pinky finger’ campaign against speeding might be the go:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/rta-gave-the-finger-to-acclaimed-pinkie-ad-20090830-f3zu.html
Appealing to the better natures of violent young men pumped full of steroids probably won’t work. Maybe attcking their masculinity will.
[The generally are concerned with what their peer group thinks. They don’t care much about the community at large. Note I quite deliberately did say “peers in particular”.]
I did note it, I just think it unlikely their peers will take up the expression.
GG
Yes more abuse from you. Big fail in your argument obviously.
guytaur,
“All you have to do is describe the attacker as the gutless coward they are. No need to try change terms. The community understands what a gutless coward is”.
You are a gutless coward!
GG
You are carrying on like a bigot. Are you one?
WeWantPaul@1561
I don’t care if they take up the expression or not. I would settle for them changing their attitude to the perpetrators of such acts from one of approval and admiration to one of disdain and contempt.
Governments are not serious about eliminating violence.
Both federal and state governments couldn’t care less.
[…happiness is related to temperature: in a quadratic model, happiness is maximized at 13.9°C. The effects of other meteorological variables—humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and sunshine—are not significant. The sensitivity of happiness to temperature also depends on attributes such as sex, age, and academic department. Happiness is more strongly affected by current temperature than by average temperature over the day. ]
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00052.1?journalCode=wcas
MTBW
Thanks for that.
Logan should get his 1 kg certificate today. He’s doing quite well. Just need to get his breathing sorted out a bit better.
Bring back the guns.
Let’s make it like the good old days, the wild, wild west.
[Governments are not serious about eliminating violence.
Both federal and state governments couldn’t care less.]
Because changing human nature and eliminating violence would be easy …
BK
So glad for you all – I am sure everything will be fine stressful though it may be for your family at this time.
Take care and thanks again for the work you do in protecting others.
For goodness sake, we get it.
GG is not for same sex marriage. Does it have to descend to a childish spat
victoria
That is entirely up to GG
[Governments are not serious about eliminating violence.Governments are not serious about eliminating violence.]
I have a tip for my children though, if you are not in or near a nightclub on a Saturday night the chance of being king hit is massively reduced.
You want to be in a place of pulsating music, drugs, sex and violence then go for it, but there are risks.
The IPCC report on climate change, distilled into Haiku –
http://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/
vic
I am with you!
GG rather than being tedious about gay relationships your time would be better spent thinking about the abuse of children by Catholic Clergy.
I want to live life to the full, live on the edge and the Government needs to keep me 100% safe while i do it.
[GG rather than being tedious about gay relationships your time would be better spent thinking about the abuse of children by Catholic Clergy.]
Oh dear was this meant as ironic tediousness or were you being obnoxious?
guytaur,
Yes more abuse from you. Big fail in your argument obviously
WWP
Yep, everybody should stay hidden in doors and not go anywhere at all .
If you go out doors, you need to wear those big belts with pockets on the hips to carry…guns!
WWP,
I’m voting for obnoxious!
That horse is always running with MTBW.
GG
More failure to think from you.
Instead bullying bigoted behaviour which you keep up I will formally complain to William about.
That last post was an invitation for you to think about your behaviour very different to everyone else.
[That last post was an invitation for you to think about your behaviour very different to everyone else.]
ppffft like you are so different
WWP
We argue robustly. You have not resorted to bullying behaviour despite those robust discussions.
I
Interesting that the ABC website can find no place for the Indonesian incident and aftermath, but Fairfax and Guardian feature it. I’d be interested to know the background of the people running the ABC these days.
[Yep, everybody should stay hidden in doors and not go anywhere at all .
If you go out doors, you need to wear those big belts with pockets on the hips to carry…guns!]
No but take some care of yourself and don’t blame the government for violence in districts where there is drugs and lots of young stupid people in a courting ritual. I’d be quite happy to outlaw nightclubs but those that use them might consider it infringes on their rights.
guytaur,
Fill your boots.
William is well known to be accommodating to snivelling whiners such as yourself.
[Yep, everybody should stay hidden in doors and not go anywhere at all .
If you go out doors, you need to wear those big belts with pockets on the hips to carry…guns!]
The ABC is just Murdoch lite … and they steal most of the stuff from News and just repeat it. But even news was running ‘Sovereign Blunders’.
GG
Well since you request that William take action rather than consider your own action so be it.
@GG/1587
Perhaps that is a failure on his part.
Goes down the drain of Internet Safety to that of Safety House Program:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_House_Program
WWP
[Oh dear was this meant as ironic tediousness or were you being obnoxious?]
Neither actually! GG has certain bents that don’t add anything to the debate on here.
[Neither actually! GG has certain bents that don’t add anything to the debate on here.]
They add at least as much as the other side to the debate.
WWP
We should agree to disagree!
WWP,
The last thing MTBW wants is to hear different views on any issue.
Poor thing, that might cause her to stir from her stupor.
WeWantPaul@1588
The ABC these days seems to consists mostly of people even Murdoch wouldn’t hire.
[A major brawl has broken out between Border Protection Command and the Navy over who was responsible for the debacle under the government’s “stop the boats” policy.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/how-australia-trespassed-into-indonesias-waters-had-wrong-information/story-fni0xqrb-1226804452006
Now we will see the true colours and capabilities of Abbott and Morrisucum.
And if the very quiet Minister for Defence has any balls.
Guytaur,
Oh, and if you do follow through on your little letter to the moderator essay, at least have the strength of character to post your jottings on PB.
Then at least we all get to laugh at your hypocrisy, factual errors, circular arguments, spelling mistakes and faulty logic.
@GG/1597
Then you have to have a go at everyone else who makes the same mistakes.
Guess that puts a fire in your rantings over post accuracy vs post argument debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/paul-keating-at-70-20140117-3105i.html
Keating 70 today!
[The fact same sex couples are denied the legal sanction of marriage is unequal.]
So are Man-Goat Relationships.
This is not inequality… this is just how things are always have been.