BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. [This inquiry is a disgrace.]

    Probably correct, especially given the very short reporting period and the fact matters previous coroners, auditor generals or other enquiries have looked into are not to be investigated.

    Ian Hanger is one of the good guys, I wonder if he gets a sniff of something will he ask for an enlargement of the ToR?

  2. Bill

    I am sure everybody remembers the old saying about royal commissions and not having one unless you know what the findings will be. the painters and dockers inquiry?

    I’ll make an early prediction. Knowing the way things work in Queensland,the dodgy contractors in the insulation program will be found to have strong links to the LNP.

  3. dave@1997

    Bushfire Bill@1993


    Actually… when you think about for a second, having someone called “Hanger” sit on an inquiry into your actions is not a really fabulous omen.


    Well he has been carefully selected no doubt to get the required result.

    Don’t bet on that Dave.
    See the posts I made @ 1986 & 1990

  4. This Govt knows that it has to feed raw-meat to the headline writers at the Daily Telegraph – hence the RC. It’s a pretty staggering admission that’s their game plan for the next three years. Amazing.

  5. l.the inquests in Queensland and New South Wales into the deaths of the persons named in paragraph (d);

    m.the findings of any court or tribunal inquiring into serious injuries, or loss or damage, claimed to have arisen from the Program;

    n.inquiries by State or Territory governments, police forces or other agencies into the deaths of the persons named in paragraph (d) or into serious injuries, or loss or damage, claimed to have arisen from the Program;

    o.the findings of the Report by the Australian National Audit Office into the Program;

    p.the findings of the Review of the Administration of the Program;

    q.any other relevant inquiry, proceeding or finding.

    So despite all these inquires being held the vindictive Abbott wants more…it can only be because none of there inquiries did not deliver an outcome because the malicious Abbott wants some kind of revenge for his defeat in 2010

  6. psyclaw@1981

    doG Albitey there have been millions of wasted words here this arvo about some people called “Hird”???, “Demetriou” ???, “Essendon”??? “Carlton”??? “Richmond”???

    I take it that it’s about some strange, sissy game referred to as “AFL” that permiates some southern places.

    Never mind.

    The real game will eventually show southerners what sport is all about sans all the intrigue and machinations described here today. Ha Ha!

    I didn’t realise that Chess had such a high profile. Things are looking up!

  7. The RC is designed purely to drag former Labor ministers into court so that Abbott & Co. can win some political ground & get away with murder whilst the feeble minds of the the MSM are distracted.

  8. Casual racism from Slater. Making monkey noises during archive footage of Curtly Ambrose bowling Greg Blewett.

    I remember when we were kids dad taking us to the SCG to watch the Windies, the Indian and Pakistan teams play Australia, and sitting amongst these vile people in the stands who used to call out awful racist taunts to the Windies players.

    Haven’t heard it on broadcast cricket commentary since the day the cameras panned out towards a church during an Adelaide Test where a newly-married couple were standing on the steps being photographed and Tony Greig declared the Asian woman to be a ‘mail order bride’ live on TV.

  9. Pink Batts was a bad, rushed policy which had consequences which though unintended should have been foreseen. The extent to which you all get defensive over any mention of it leads me to believe that deep down you understand that Labor is culpable to some extent here.

  10. RC was a bad, rushed policy which had consequences which though unintended should have been foreseen. The extent to which you all get defensive over any mention of it leads me to believe that deep down you understand that Abbott Tories are culpable here.

  11. What a Royal Commission can do that a Labor Government “inquiry” can’t do is force individuals… including Labor politicians to release documents and force them to reveal what happened and what they knew under oath.

    It’ll be great to see Rudd and Peter Garrett in the dispatch box on when they were told of the dangers.

  12. RT,

    it’s interesting isn’t it… lefties usually love inquiries… but when it involves their blokes suddenly they want to shut all information down.

    A Royal Commission will simply be given the truth… the full truth… and nothing but the truth and somehow this is making Labor supporters shit their pants.

  13. RT – So the Government should have foreseen that employers would fail to provide proper training and induction to employees, fail to follow the Building Code and fail to follow State Govt OHS laws?

    Crystal ball time!!

    Based on the Abbott need for this RC there should also be a RC into Howards WMD lie. The deaths in that conflict were all based on the Howard lie. He should be held to account.

  14. I’m sure the judge/magistrate who is heading the inquiry couldn’t care less what political agendas anyone has. His job is simply to look at all the evidence and give recommendations.

    With 4 dead peoples families wanting answers I can only guess why someone wouldn’t want such an investigation to occur.

  15. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
    ==================================================

    You got that link to the surcharge on companies to fund Direct Action yet?

  16. Sean Tisme@2024

    A Royal Commission will simply be given the truth… the full truth… and nothing but the truth and somehow this is making Labor supporters shit their pants.

    oh how you change your tune –

    [Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 3:41 pm |Permalink

    There is a big difference between lying and not telling the complete truth]

  17. AA,

    The great thing about a RC is that someone much smarter than you gets to decide what actually happened after looking at all the evidence, rather than what you are doing and guessing.

  18. [I’m sure the judge/magistrate who is heading the inquiry couldn’t care less what political agendas anyone has. His job is simply to look at all the evidence and give recommendations.]

    No. They can only work within the scope of the terms of reference provided for the inquiry.

    The best way to influence a royal commission is to shape the ToR accordingly.

  19. Sean Tisme@2029

    I’m sure the judge/magistrate who is heading the inquiry couldn’t care less what political agendas anyone has. His job is simply to look at all the evidence and give recommendations.

    With 4 dead peoples families wanting answers I can only guess why someone wouldn’t want such an investigation to occur.

    They got answers at the inquests. That is what inquests do.

  20. Sean

    Just cut the BS and get on with the job of government.

    The Gillard/Rudd Government bit the bust 100+ days ago and it is clear that the government needs to get a direction and all this going over old ground is just going further show that Tone is looking in the reverse mirror rather than looking to plant the foot.

  21. [ I’m sure the judge/magistrate who is heading the inquiry couldn’t care less what political agendas anyone has. His job is simply to look at all the evidence and give recommendations.

    With 4 dead peoples families wanting answers I can only guess why someone wouldn’t want such an investigation to occur. ]
    maybe it will find that small business is unable to ensure the safety of workers

  22. RTurkey

    I still don’t understand how insulating roofs is a bad policy. If that was so then the current BASIX requirements for building standards would let you get away with not doing it. I can tell you now that an uninsulated roof will not pass.

    Seeming William thinks you’re getting an unfair go please answer that.

  23. [Pink Batts was a bad, rushed policy which had consequences which though unintended should have been foreseen.]

    It was rushed policy, it needed to be. It provided unskilled work to unskilled workers while insulating a million houses that should have been insulated under building codes.

    The deaths that were caused in Qld were because a simple earth leakage safety switch was not mandatory for all dwellings. The poor guy who was cooked in a roof cavity is just an act of bastardry by his boss.

    Abbott may be correct in giving families closure, but the whingers who say it ruined the retrofit insulation business should never have had a business (especially when they used to burn down more houses) in the first pace.

    He is also praying like fuck that Hanger does not find a pattern of commercial collusion to ignore Govt recommendations.

  24. Yes it was a rushed policy, yes it was not necessarily the best use of tax dollars but in the context of 2008/9 it did its job.

    Sadly four installers skipped safety with tragic consequences and they should have been dealt with by the courts.

  25. This of the way of it now. When the Government changes, set up fishing expeditions into your predecessors. Is that a good precedent? It could well come back to bite Abbott on the bum.

    I have no doubt that the Commissioner will do his job honestly and diligently but he will be constrained by terms of reference designed to get the result the Government wanted.

  26. [Turkeys, do you support this RC?]

    I don’t really know much about it to be honest. But people have died and if there are families who want answers and aren’t satisfied with the ones they’ve received so far, then I can’t really see a problem.

  27. William Bowe@2023


    On a more general note, RT’s comments are generally a lot more intelligent that the shit-flinging he cops his response, the most recent batch being a case in point.

    RT posts a lot of crap, or maybe you agree with –

    [ Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Usually I read the nonsense written by the bludgers from a position of lofty, slightly-amused contempt. But the more they persist in taking Indonesia’s side against their own country just because they don’t like our current leader the closer to being actually upset I get. You are all disgraceful.

    God I would sell everything I own and donate all my money to the Liberal Party if Tony Abbottt would just come out and put the Indonesians in their place. Dismissively, of course.

    Their weakness is their inferiority complex. ]

    [ Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    Everyone knows that it is alphas who win at life, not betas.

    Being submissive never gets you anywhere. The only time you should submit is in the face of overwhelmingly superior force and when you have no other choice.

    If this whole Indonesia thing ends with Abbott giving some sort of apology and presenting himself as if to be sodomised then I will be very upset.

    Gosh I’m only feeling like half a man right now. Every little article you bludgers post from the Indonesian media gets my blood pressure up. Someone needs to put them in their place.]

    [ Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    Christopher Pyne is clearly an education policy realist.

    He knows that beyond a certain point (and all the low-hanging fruit has already been picked) throwing money at the education of the children of the socially dysfunctional underclass is just as useful as flushing it down the toilet. ]


    [ Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    The so-called upper class has superior values which result in superior lifestyles which result in superior outcomes.

    Giving people with inferior values more money {for education}will not change their values, so it will not change their outcomes.

    It will just waste your money. ]

    [ Resurgent Turkeys
    Posted Tuesday, November 26, 2013 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    No, their {Indonesian} weakness is psychological, mainly their inferiority complex. We need to assert our dominance using contempt, disdain, dismissal, and high-brow slightly-disguised racial slurs. ]

    I could go on – and it doesn’t get any better.

  28. Despite the rantings of the moronic Liberal trolls I for do not have a problem with an inquiry.

    It is the vindictive Abbott’s reasons for it happening.

  29. [I still don’t understand how insulating roofs is a bad policy. If that was so then the current BASIX requirements for building standards would let you get away with not doing it. I can tell you now that an uninsulated roof will not pass.]

    It seems like a good policy for all new homes being constructed, but for existing dwellings not so much.

  30. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    AA,

    The great thing about a RC is that someone much smarter than you gets to decide what actually happened after looking at all the evidence, rather than what you are doing and guessing.
    ================================================

    I am not guessing.

    I have read the reports from the Coroner’s and others.

    (Still waiting for that link regarding the surcharge on companies to fund DA)

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