BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. RT –

    I can’t really see a problem.

    Right, so you can’t see that it’s a narrowly constituted inquiry designed to embarrass the government’s opponents, and you “can’t really see a problem”.

    That what amounts to a political stunt that is going to cost the taxpayers tens of millions of dollars isn’t something that you can “really see a problem” with.

  2. Actually, has anyone tried to establish the quantum of savings in energy + carbon footprint that the insulation program resulted in, from memory heat loss/gain through a roof is in the order of 25%.

  3. Pietersen out via a brilliant catch by Johnson.

    The Australian field placements have been far superior to those of England at the WACA. How many times did we see lower order Australian batsmen scoring runs where you’d inordinately see a 4th slip?

  4. @William/2022

    Sure, but I don’t see how RT can be Intelligent when he should know the end result of the terms of reference is?

    BTW, have we heard anything from the Abuse Inquiry Church and Navy?

  5. [But people have died and if there are families who want answers and aren’t satisfied with the ones they’ve received so far, then I can’t really see a problem.]

    This is of course true of a lot of things. What’s special about this circumstance that makes a royal commission an appropriate response, and do you imagine that whatever it is has anything to do with good governance?

  6. William Bowe@2022

    Zoidlord, I don’t normally care to be pedantic, but can you work on the whole your/you’re thing?

    William, you and Bemused are tilting at windmills. The game is lost, move on.

    It annoys me too, but the best thing to do is to lie back and think of England.

  7. It seems like a good policy for all new homes being constructed, but for existing dwellings not so much.
    =========================================================

    If employers provide proper training and ensure employees follow OHS etc it is no more dangerous installing in existing homes as it is in new homes.

    Any comment to the contrary is just stupid.

  8. Resurgent Turkeys@2045

    Turkeys, do you support this RC?


    I don’t really know much about it to be honest. But people have died and if there are families who want answers and aren’t satisfied with the ones they’ve received so far, then I can’t really see a problem.

    Inquests have been held, findings made as to cause of death and contribution and prosecutions launched.

    Royal Commissions are very expensive undertakings and this one is not worthwhile in the circumstances.

  9. [That what amounts to a political stunt that is going to cost the taxpayers tens of millions of dollars isn’t something that you can “really see a problem” with.]

    In light of the departure of GMH over reportedly $80M the question of cost of this RC is worth asking.

  10. [I don’t really know much about it to be honest. But people have died and if there are families who want answers and aren’t satisfied with the ones they’ve received so far, then I can’t really see a problem.]

    Bit like most things. Every death has been looked into by a Coronial enquiry, Company Directors have been found guilty of breaches of OH&S laws. They have been fined and declared bankrupt.

    If the Govt bans metal staples, the company knows of the ban but buys metal staples anyway who’s fault is it really?

  11. William Bowe@2048


    It’s still all better than #2020.

    RT posted the same in #2017 – and did it first.

    So you agree with RT view that Indonesian needs to be put in its place and its a *waste spending money on education for the underclass*?

  12. Sean – you haven’t got back to us with Alexander Downer’s travelling expenses for any given 6 months in his period as Foreign Minister – say the first half of 2007. And that after you went to all the trouble of cutting and pasting a beat up from the Daily Telecrap on the previous Government’s travel expenses. Don’t you want to claim bragging rights when you find that Alexander Downer’s were significantly less then Bob Carr’s? Or did you find out that they weren’t?

  13. Someone should be pounding hard the lack of a royal commission into the Iraq war. After all, the poms had a big one.

    Must say, I love going onto the comments section of Guardian Australia. Nutbags with Coalition talking points often try to sown confusion and quickly get bashed and shredded.

  14. William Bowe@2058

    All Zoidlord has to do is use “you’re” every time he means to use “your”, and his error rate will plummet dramatically.

    And after those have been conquered, can we move on to the fact that ‘of’ is not a verb as ‘should of’, ‘would of’, ‘could of’ etc?

    I had an argument with my eldest son recently on this but he at least has the excuse of having been mentally mutilated by the Victorian VCE system in secondary school.

  15. [It seems like a good policy for all new homes being constructed, but for existing dwellings not so much.]

    Given the existing housing stock far out-ways any new development I would be quite unequivocal in saying that any policy to upgrade existing dwellings is a very good move.

  16. The RC is plain and simply an exploitation of 4 tragic deaths for political reasons.

    And for that Abbott should taken to task and shown for the vindictive moron he is.

  17. [With 4 dead peoples families wanting answers I can only guess why someone wouldn’t want such an investigation to occur.]

    Plenty of families want answers Sean. Just that most of them don’t get a Royal Commission to provide them.

    Kids die every day from doing stupid things, or being told to do stupid things they should have the sense not to do.

    Get over it.

    Thousands of people found work where there was none. A million homes were insulated, which will save millions of tonnes of carbon emissions over time and serve to cut electricity bills to those households.

    As your hero, Tony Abbott, said of another young death, “Shit happens”.

    Get over it.

  18. William Bowe
    [This is of course true of a lot of things. What’s special about this circumstance that makes a royal commission an appropriate response, and do you imagine that whatever it is has anything to do with good governance?]

    I did confess that I don’t really know a lot about it. I was presuming that there was some issue over whether the past inquests into the issue had been able to get their hands on all the relevant documents etc. I was presuming that the government feels that there are stones which have yet to be overturned and which require the authority of a Royal Commission to get to.

    But I may be wrong. If the government thinks that they will score some kind of political victory or advantage out of a Royal Commission then I do not think they are very smart. It was a long time ago now and the major players for Labor have all retired.

  19. I do wonder if this RC is another example of the Government living in a Newscorpse bubble. They think all the crap the OO threw at the pink batts roll-out must be true and there is nothing else the RC can produce (such as the evidence that death rates actually dropped during the scheme)

  20. AussieAchmed@2076


    The RC is plain and simply an exploitation of 4 tragic deaths for political reasons.

    And for that Abbott should taken to task and shown for the vindictive moron he is.

    Additionally the next step is Labor call a RC into whatever….first thing next time they are back in power,

    What goes around.

  21. bemused

    it sounds like his primary education was at fault, not his secondary (seriously? You’re going to pretend your son’s spelling problems are from his last two years of education?)

  22. dave, William was originally comparing RT’s posts to things such as “you’re an idiot”. The reason you copped it from William was because you were/are arguing with him.

    The exact response you copped (with the mention of a specific post of yours) is irrelevant really. As is usually the case when Mr Bowe demonstrates his annoyance, he’ll pick on anything, with the actual message being “you’d best stop now” :P.

  23. zoidlord@2080

    @bemused/2074

    FYI: I do have Disability Pension and have Learning Disabilities since primary school (Amongst other disabilities).

    Yes I was aware of that and since I was made aware, have not picked you up on things attributable to that.

    I guess I did slip a little when joining in with William, but my other comment was not aimed at you as it is fairly common among others.

  24. DAVE – I nominate an RC into fraudband and the influence that a certain vicious old s… might have exercised on govt policy. Maybe even call said s…mbefore the inquiry. I wonder if they have deleted ALL the relevant emails. There must be a lot sailing around.

  25. I believe the insulation policy was rushed, poorly structured and poorly implemented, however we don’t need a RC to tell us that. I see no benefit for spending the money on a RC which will tell us what we already know and add little more of value.

  26. zoomster@2084

    bemused

    it sounds like his primary education was at fault, not his secondary (seriously? You’re going to pretend your son’s spelling problems are from his last two years of education?)

    Well he actually didn’t complete high school, but was a victim of the system preparing students for that particular disaster.

    He has since completed a Graduate Diploma and even done some tertiary teaching.

    The problems have persisted through his whole education and, if you think that is a spelling problem, then I think we have just identified one of the reasons.

  27. @Bemused/2086

    I am fine with both you and William pointing things out, I just thought I let you know, that I do have other disabilities.

    But it is hard for me to keep up, especially when I participate on a number of blogs/forums etc.

    So even just typing I find is hard work to keep correcting myself all the time.

    I do try and fix up spelling mistakes, grammer mistakes before pressing the post button, but I do not always get it right, and that’s where I slip.

  28. DisplayName@2085


    dave, William was originally comparing RT’s posts to things such as “you’re an idiot”. The reason you copped it from William was because you were/are arguing with him.

    The exact response you copped (with the mention of a specific post of yours) is irrelevant really. As is usually the case when Mr Bowe demonstrates his annoyance, he’ll pick on anything, with the actual message being “you’d best stop now” .

    I disagreed and backed it with examples of what was said was nonsense. It still is.

    I would be totally amazed if William really believes –

    [ Indonesian needs to be put in its place and its a *waste spending money on education for the underclass* ]

    Plus, my words @ 2020 were what RT used, just turning his argument around?

    Now – let be clear, this post is not intended to start the whole up again – its just answering you where I think you are wRONg.

  29. davidwh@2089

    I believe the insulation policy was rushed, poorly structured and poorly implemented, however we don’t need a RC to tell us that. I see no benefit for spending the money on a RC which will tell us what we already know and add little more of value.

    Then you are wrong.

  30. [I did confess that I don’t really know a lot about it. I was presuming that there was some issue over whether the past inquests into the issue had been able to get their hands on all the relevant documents etc. I was presuming that the government feels that there are stones which have yet to be overturned and which require the authority of a Royal Commission to get to.]

    I’m presuming the government is raking over the coals of the previous government because governing has turned out to be harder than it expected and it’s stuck for ideas as to how to score political points on its own merits. But perhaps I don’t know a lot about it either.

  31. I remember when every newcomer to the blog used to get into trouble for telling Ron to type better. He would get furiously defended as having some sort of disability outside of his control. But they never adequately explained why this disability led to him leaving a space on each side of all his commas. All the time.

  32. [I’m presuming the government is raking over the coals of the previous government because governing has turned out to be harder than it expected and it’s stuck for ideas as to how to score political points on its own merits.]

    Yes, that sounds about right. They aren’t a very impressive bunch.

  33. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@2088


    DAVE – I nominate an RC into fraudband and the influence that a certain vicious old s… might have exercised on govt policy. Maybe even call said s…mbefore the inquiry. I wonder if they have deleted ALL the relevant emails. There must be a lot sailing around.

    Our *involvement* in the Iraq War is the obvious one, potentially with a referral to the international court in The Hague being a possibility.

    If one side starts this type of thing – then it will continue – but abbott knows that already.

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