Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,518 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @silmaj/2501

    I may not know them all, but really, at least I don’t claim to be an expert of all things like Electricity, Taxation, Businesses, Running of 3 Phase Machinery, Blaming Carbon Pricing aka “Tax” ETC.

    But I know what your suggesting is abit much?

    1. You blame Labor for Carbon “Tax”.

    2. You blame Labor for “FBT Changes”.

    3. You ignore the Electricity price rises that have been going up at a rate of large increases way before Labor became into power, and even after Labor leaves, you still blame them.

    4. You ignore that Electricity prices are not the only utility that is going up in prices, Water is too.

    All this is to prompt up so they can be used as a revenue stream for either Labor or Coalition Goverment or state Versions of either party.

    But ya know, blow out your one sided view of the world.

  2. Zoid
    I blame labor for contributing in a large way to the problems that we as a country are aspiring to keep up the good lifestyle that we have. I would argue that labors so called initiatives have made it harder to make a dollar and therefore by default get less revenue. Labor to stay in office decided that they would introduce a co2 tax that they actually know will cause economic harm. We are supposedly the worst polluters per capita but how bad are we as a country. We are 23 million people who live in a country that is nearly the size of USA but our emissions are no where near theirs. It is probably a fact that our large space eats our emissions and probably some of the rest of the worlds. But of course that is all irrevelant. The labor green way is to tax and then hand out the money elsewhere. Transfer money to people so they can keep emitting. Well don’t worry soon there will be not a lot of emitting going on here. Oh and you can blame abbott .

  3. Sorry for disappearing in the middle of discussion earlier but I fell asleep in my comfortable recliner iPhone in hand and have just woken up. Time for bed I think.

    Personally I have had pretty firm views on vehicle subsidizing for many years and at odds with the mainstream. I honestly don’t know why we prop up one industry when we have done little while many others have been left to wither. I think today’s announcement has been inevitable for a long time. The time has more than past where we need to let the natural order of things happen.

    Yep workers suffer. It’s happened to me twice in nearly 50 years of working. People pick themselves up and get on with life and transition to sectors which are growing. It’s tough but plenty of us have done it in the past and plenty of us will continue to do it in the future.

    The only real alternative is to go back to an economy supported by artificial barriers. Trouble is governments of all persuasions since the 70’s have made that virtually impossible even if it was logical which it isn’t.

    Off to bed.

  4. 2503
    That doc says jack. The person who pays is the employee who loses the job because it is no longer competitive. Business is already paying the higher prices and one by one will give up. That will help the world as you want.

  5. @silmaj/2504

    Yes, you are blaming Labor, yet ignoring the continued attack style running by the Coalition Party that seem to be in Opposition mode.

    The size of the population isn’t the issue as such when it comes to pumping pollution, it’s the plant’s themselves.

    Have you been reading what’s been happening in Singapore, China ?

  6. Time to crash
    The only reason for posting today is that since Holden opened we have been making bits for them and it was obvious that people were going to peddle rubbish about why they are closing. Zoid that horrible pollution in china and Singapore and other countries is mainly other pollutants that we aren’t allowed to do. Remember co2 is clear.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Abbott: “If shit doesn’t happen we’ll make it happen!”
    I don’t know about “banana moment” but it certainly was a “pompous dickhead moment”.
    The outlook is not good – and we have these clowns in charge!
    Some troubles in a Liberal incubator.
    George Brandis SC A-G DH gets to work.
    And the Royal Commission hearings continue today.
    It’s official. There is zero practical knowledge of the performance of the lynchpin copper network under FTTN conditions. How can reasonable analysis of establishment and operation cost be done under these circumstances?

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir calls out Abbott and Hockey on the Holden decision.
    David Pope conflates Abbott’s problems with manufacturing and the environment.
    And David Rowe does the same.
    Ron Tandberg suggests the boats haven’t been stopped.

  9. The government valedictories today were HILARIOUS! They clearly couldn’t wait to get away from parliament as quickly as possible!

    They better improve their performance in early 2014 else they’ll be fully fucked come election time.

  10. Any wonder the Polls favour Labor the Coalition have Husseld there way into Goverment they have Broken every Election promise and them some i would like to see Abbott call for a Doubble Disalusion if the Carbon Tax is Rejected in the New Year Time For commen sense to Prevail and return Labor.

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