BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. zoidlord@2093

    @Bemused/2086

    I am fine with both you and William pointing things out, I just thought I let you know, that I do have other disabilities.

    But it is hard for me to keep up, especially when I participate on a number of blogs/forums etc.

    So even just typing I find is hard work to keep correcting myself all the time.

    I do try and fix up spelling mistakes, grammer mistakes before pressing the post button, but I do not always get it right, and that’s where I slip.

    Does your browser have a spell checker? That is what helps me a lot.

    Not sure what is available to help with grammar though.

    You are fine though so don’t take what William wrote too hard, you should see what he writes to me. 😉

  2. The HIP was rushed, but in no way was it poorly structured or poorly implemented.

    Either Poss or Grog at the time showed that the stimulus package in its entirety was aimed at those sectors with the largest proportion of employees. Those employed in the housing sector were among the highest IIRC, along with retail, hence the cash handouts.

  3. This article from July this year

    [QUEENSLAND Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie says Prime Minister Kevin Rudd must answer questions about his failed foil insulation scheme, following findings by the Coroner.

    Earlier today, Queensland Coroner Michael Barnes referred the bosses of tradesmen who were electrocuted while installing home insulation to prosecutors and slammed the government for rushing the scheme.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/coroner-refers-home-insulation-bosses-to-prosecutors-after-deaths-of-three-tradesmen/story-fnihsrf2-1226674213145

  4. [If the program has proved anything, it is that Australia abounds with shonky businesses, ”she’ll be right” tradesmen]

    Yeah, lets spend millions to find out this is still the status quo. 😛

  5. davidwh@2100

    Bemused #2095 so you think a RC will add something of value, what exactly?

    Sorry, I should have made it clearer that I disagreed with your first sentence.

    If the Royal Commissioner does his job right, we will get great value, and see Abbott rue the day he set up the RC.

  6. [ Can anyone tell me anything of substance about Rowan Ramsey ]
    apparently has never addressed the issue of broadband in his electorate and has had nothing to say about cities in his electorate recently being removed from the NBN rollout list

  7. I a RC into every death by cop of a mentally-ill person, and a RC into people with mental illness who have been chucked into the street from medical care facilities and who subsequently suicide.

    It is more common than people realise and I don’t see any rightwing dingbats on PB agitating for that. I guess there is no hope in it of slurring the Rudd/Gillard gov’ts, so tough bikkies.

    Oh, and what about the lives lost by Howard and his minions blatant lies about WMDs, which killed Australian troops and god only knows how many Iraqui people. Yes, lets do the
    RC, thoroughly and completely. And the next one should be a RC into signing these FTAs that are going to sell us out. I want to know that is all kosher, too.

    A RC into the Slipper and Thomson witchhunts would not go astray either. I would buy popcorn for that.

    And finally a RC into Murdoch and his media interfering with this countries democratic well-being. Let’s open the whole stinking right-wing carcase up to the light of day. Maybe some of the maggots might burn up in the sun.

  8. DisplayName@2102


    dave, RT may be a shit-stirring troll, but he doesn’t post the kind of personal abuse he cops. This is really not hard to understand.

    I don’t pretend to speak for others on the board, but I have challenged him on his arguments. Those aimed at Indonesia are deplorable and potentially dangerous.

    The comments about wasting money to educate the *underclass* as he sneers are beyond the pale.

    Take up specific instances of what you regard as abuse of RT with those who made them if thats how you see it.

    Why haven’t you done that already if thats what you think?

    I will continue to challenge him on the nonsense he writes.

  9. dave

    RT has said some pretty despicable things about the children of the lesser earners.

    I’m sure you can find those comments (especially prior to last Saturday).

    Just as I’m pretty sure you won’t be able to find any RT comments about the recent study into the failings of the children of the greater earners, published last week.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/poor-little-rich-kids-20131207-2yyou.html

    Here’s a taste:

    [In the mid-1990s, I was recruiting youth in a prosperous suburban community in the north-east of the US as a comparison sample for a study of inner-city teens.

    Much to my surprise, the affluent teens fared significantly worse than teens from lower socio-economic backgrounds on all indicators of substance use, including hard drugs.

    I later replicated those findings among year 10 students in a different north-east suburb.

    And other researchers have since corroborated the findings of high alcohol use and marijuana use among children of well-educated, white, high-income, two-parent families.

    School student smoking.

    The first signs of problems emerge around seventh grade, when they are almost 13.

    But substance use is not the only errant behaviour among privileged children.

    Crime is also widely assumed to be a problem of impoverished youth, but I have found comparable levels of wrongdoing among well-off suburban students and inner-city youth.

    What does differ are the types of rule-breaking – widespread cheating and random acts of delinquency, such as stealing from parents or peers, are more common among the rich, while poor teens are apt to commit crimes related to self defence, such as carrying a weapon.

    Wealthy children have serious internalising problems as well.

    In 1999, I reported significant depression in one in five girls. Since then, studies I have conducted show that, on average, serious levels of depression, anxiety or physical symptoms occur twice as often or more among these boys and girls, compared to national rates.

    They display high levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms, self-injurious behaviour such as cutting and burning, and rule-breaking behaviours.

    The bottom line: across geographical areas and public and private schools, upper-middle-class youngsters show alarmingly high rates of serious disturbance.]

    Read MUCH more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/poor-little-rich-kids-20131207-2yyou.html#ixzz2nRKJgnjZ

    Zoid
    I agree with William about the “your”, it was getting out of hand, but I learned to add the apostrophe ‘re’ without too much angst.

    On the other hand, RT’s smug, conjectured comments though far outweigh the grammatical errors of your offerings.

  10. dave
    [Take up specific instances of what you regard as abuse of RT with those who made them if thats how you see it.]
    What I’m telling you is that this is what William was doing. This whole discussion you’re trying to have about whose posts are more intelligent is an irrelevant unicorn.

  11. Turkey,
    You are able as anyone else to post here, obviously. Bilbo is the head honcho around here as this is his blog. I see nothing terrible about your posts, even though they are predictably Right Wing and as boring as bat guano.

  12. William Bowe@2118


    I must admit that I did slightly misunderstand #2020. Even so, he is simply repasting RT’s comment with two phrases changed, in a spirit of saying “I know you are but what am I”.

    I thought you had it wrong which is why I replied and why I have replied to DN.

    That form of turning the argument around on RT has gone on here for many many many years without such comment.

    But I have shown and can show more examples where RT posts are just sneering at what he regards as *the under class* or wanting conflict with the likes of Indonesia.

    Such is very unintelligent IMO anyway.

  13. Anyway, that’s enough. I’ve said what I wanted to say in as many different ways as I can think of. If it’s still incomprehensible, then so be it :P.

  14. @bemused/2101

    It does help, but some of the spelling fixes with the browser is just not right.

    For example, it will pick up on a word, where it will suggest something entirely different.

    Some of the bigger/complex words I use, I have to word/google the spelling to make sure i got the right one.

    @kezza1/2121

    I agree.

  15. DisplayName@2123


    dave

    Take up specific instances of what you regard as abuse of RT with those who made them if thats how you see it.


    What I’m telling you is that this is what William was doing. This whole discussion you’re trying to have about whose posts are more intelligent is an irrelevant unicorn.

    Its not your role here and you don’t know what William tninks on it.

    In fact you have poked your nose in to keep it going.

    You are not the moderator.

  16. Maybe there are a few things we should be having Royal Commissions into. Alexander Downer appears to have deployed Australian Intelligence services in East Timor in such a way as to advantage an energy company that he now advises. Dodgy dealings? Worth a look.

    Even more important, the former Prime Minister took Australia to war, costing the lives and health of Australian service personnel and billions of dollars on false pretences to support a hare-brained scheme by American hawks to rearrange the political geography if the Middle East. Definitely worth a look.

  17. It’s the apostrophe wars, bring it on. Bemused is a serial offender here … I’ve given up alerting him to his frequent use of it’s, when he really means its. He’s not alone, most of the PB community fall for the dreaded apostrophe error. Makes me weep.

  18. I think there’s some sort of moral here, or some example of karma, or something about people getting what they deserve.

    Julia Gillard’s Altona home sold at auction today for over $921,000, more than $250,000 over the estimated price. It was a very nice profit for JG, she paid about $140,000 for the house 15 years ago,
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/julia-gillards-altona-home-goes-under-the-hammer-and-fetches-more-than-250000-over-asking-price/story-fndba8uq-1226783071080

    but….the Mosman, Sydney home used by Gina Rinehart’s daughter, Hope Welker and owned by a Rinehart family investment company, was passed in at auction after failing to meet the $5.4 million paid for it six years ago. The top bid was only $4.3 million.
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/gina-rineharts-luxury-mosman-mansion-falls-a-million-short-at-auction/story-fncq3era-1226783098024

  19. dave
    [Its not your role here and you don’t know what William tninks on it.

    In fact you have poked your nose in to keep it going.

    You are not the moderator.]
    Ha, your the second person to tell me that. After myself.

    I said what I wanted to say anyway because I’m not a very wise person :P.

  20. Telstra tried to fast-track compensation arrangements for its employees exposed to asbestos but was rebuffed by Tony Abbott’s own department back in 2001.

    With the opposition on Monday leading a parliamentary attack on the government over its alleged lack of urgency in addressing asbestos discovered in Telstra junction pits being handed over to the NBN, Fairfax Media has learnt the giant telco wanted to create an independent body to accelerate compensation and sought approval from the Department of Workplace Relations.

    However, the department, then under the ministerial leadership of Mr Abbott, rejected the plan

    4 Insulation Program deaths warrant a RC but thousands from asbestos are ignored by Abbott

  21. davidwh@2113

    Bemused I knew what you meant but was being a little evil

    Actually I am confident I was right and you are wrong, so there.

    You are now doubly wrong! 👿

    It was really placed in the hands of consumers to select their installer.

    There was also an implicit assumption that states had OH&S laws which were enforced. Seems they were in most states, but not so Qld.

  22. 100 days in, Abbott gives government a gold star after learning its lesson

    hahahahahahhahahhahahhahhahahhahahahhhahahahahhahhahahhahhahahhahahhahahha

    my sides are aching, I didn’t realise that Abbott had a sense of humour…best joke of the year

  23. RT is Resurgent Turkeys. He used to be a leftie basking in the warm sun, but having seen the dark, slithered off into the shadows to become a rightie.

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