BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. The Batty RC will find that for the first time an industry that had a history of deaths and fires was made much safer by Peter Garratt and that the number of fires were significantly less than a business as usual model.

    The only dodgy finding possible is Garrett did not think business could be such bastards as to fry kids for profit.

  2. zoom, apparently they’re wrong in every way:

    Sinodinos
    [You’ve got to be able to balance what you do with the budget with the impact those measures are having on either compliance costs, collection costs or economic impact in the community]

    Well, then they should argue all those things directly and take responsibility for the extra $3B budget hole as reflecting their values differently to Labor’s!

  3. Will the Australian Cricket Board, the Test and County Cricket Board, the WA Government or the Australian or UK Governments be responsible if a player in either of the Australian or England teams, an umpire or a ground official suffers serious detriment from working in Perth on 5 consecutive 100 degree (F) days?

  4. 1943

    He has plenty of money. They lost all but 3 or 4 seats in the election but ran in all but a handful of down the list Senate seats despite most of them not being winnable. It shows a lack of willingness to be an all round political party.

  5. @isaacstonefish: North Korea’s execution of Jang Song Taek may have jeopardized its relationship with China, writes Shen Dingli http://t.co/hGrnGDxRvc

    This is important because it means a regime may be toppled. The longer it stays in the more desperate and unpredictable it will become.

    The good thing is it may distract China from pushing the Islands dispute.

  6. Z –

    Try and at least make your arguments internally consistent, guys.

    They’re completely out of practice on internally consistent arguments because the media never seemed to care about them before.

    Remember the mining tax that would destroy the mining industry, but was a failure because it didn’t raise any money?

    Or how about the carbon “tax” that was strangling the economy, but when it transitioned to internationally tradable permits wouldn’t raise enough revenue?

  7. From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-14/coalition-abandons-tax-changes-despite-budget-blowout/5156964

    [ Last week, Treasurer Joe Hockey announced the Government would scrap seven of 92 tax and superannuation policies proposed by the previous government.

    The Coalition now says it will abandon a further 48 of those measures.

    Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos says Labor is responsible for the $3 billion hit to the budget. ]

    The coalition removes some revenue raising taxes, then blames Labor for the hit to the budget!

    Ummm … really?

    And of course their ABC reports it as if it makes perfect sense!

  8. @Player One/1959

    If they keep blaming labor then they will loose more in the polls, it will just look silly.

    So what really happened with the so called agreement with the greens?

  9. [confessions

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    The worst cricket commentary pairing ever: Ian Healy AND Michael Slater.]

    Agreed, but they are in a pretty tough race to the bottom with the other commentators.

    Healy’s such a great judge of character he endorsed Scott Driscoll for Redcliffe in LNP election material last Qld election. Haven’t been able to take him seriously since then.

  10. Ray Hadley gets a glowing character reference.

    [Ray Hadley accused of being ‘a psychotic bully’ by boss

    Macquarie Radio Network executive chairman Russell Tate accused his star radio announcer Ray Hadley of being a “psychotic bully”, while managing director Rob Loewenthal described the coverage of Mr Hadley’s alleged bullying of 2GB producer Richard Palmer as “a f–king disgrace”, a court has heard.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/ray-hadley-accused-of-being-a-psychotic-bully-by-boss-20131214-2zdt4.html#ixzz2nQccMTny

  11. [Healy’s such a great judge of character he endorsed Scott Driscoll for Redcliffe in LNP election material last Qld election.]

    I have vague memories of him speaking favourably of Pauline Hanson as well.

  12. Re Jackol @ 1958: They’re completely out of practice on internally consistent arguments because the media never seemed to care about them before.

    If you are a right-winger you don’t need to worry about consistency or, for that matter, any connection to facts. It is only necessary to repeat assertions often and loudly enough and eventually, assisted by a friendly media environment, enough people will believe you.

  13. [ If they keep blaming labor then they will loose more in the polls, it will just look silly. ]

    Speaking of looking silly, this is a summary of the deaths to be investigated by Ian Hanger, QC, at great expense to the Australian taxpayer:

    [
    October 14, 2009: Matthew Fuller, 25, is electrocuted laying insulation sheeting in the ceiling cavity of a house in Meadowbrook (Qld). He had started work with company 12 days earlier.
    November 18, 2009: Rueben Barnes, 16, electrocuted laying batts in the ceiling cavity of a house at Stanwell (Qld). He had started with the company 21 days earlier.
    November 21, 2009: Marcus Wilson, 19, dies from hyperthermia complications after installing batts in a St Clair (NSW) home in 40 degree heat.
    February 4, 2010: Mitchell Sweeney, 22, is electrocuted laying insulation sheeting in the ceiling cavity of a home at Millaa Millaa (Qld). He had started at a new company a week earlier.
    ]

    Notice anything … ? Any patterns emerging there … ? Anyone … ?

    The commission starts on December 23. I reckon even a complete and utter moron should be able to wrap it up before Christmas.

    Let’s see how long it takes Ian Hanger, QC to make himself look like a political tool.

  14. The Abbott government has taken funding from a key indigenous education advisory group

    Abbott needs to be a bit careful with indigenous issues.

    He made a big deal about his personal commitment to making the lives of indigenous people better – PM for Indigenous Affairs and all that.

    In ratbag RW shock-jock-land they may not care too much whether Aboriginals get shafted by the government, but it will be (another) serious blow to Abbott’s personal credibility if he starts to lose some of those Aboriginal figures he brought on-board, eg Mundine.

  15. Let’s see how long it takes Ian Hanger, QC to make himself look like a political tool.

    I was wondering when I heard this announcement what the process is for getting a prominent legal figure to head up a RC.

    Presumably the government makes up a short list of distinguished but potentially favourably-inclined (or at least not openly antagonistic) SCs/judges/whatever and then quietly asks them if they are interested.

    I would have thought most of the legal profession, even if conservatively inclined, would run a mile from something that was obviously set up as a political tool to “get” the government’s opponents.

    I also wonder if the government of the day has ever “misread” an SC’s inclinations and ended up with an enquiry that said when it ended, effectively, “this enquiry should never have been set up, it was politically motivated and a waste of time and money”.

  16. Boerwar:

    Does it count as a surprise when one of Abbott’s advisors threatened that indigenous expert with education funding cuts at a function before the election?

  17. [Root hard done by there. That was the wrong decision]

    It was the entirely correct decision, the field umpire gave him out. Not enough evidence to overrule.

  18. Bushfire Bill #1940

    The Yes Minister adage “never start an enquiry unless you know what the finding will be” might catch Abbott and his mob here.

    The RC is motivated by vindictiveness, not a quest for the facts.

    At the time there was plenty of coverage suggesting that the young installers were given fuck all training, especially regarding the turning off of power at the main switch when working with foil insulation.

    I recall one interview of a boss of one of the guys who said that he never gets into a foiled roof unless he turns all power off. He was asked whether he told the young installers this. “Nope!” says he. When asked why not, he gave the reply Abbott was later to use in the Mark Riley interview about shit happening.

    If the RC has balls it will show that one problem was that the big money grab for “free” government $s stimulated big, smart, greedy contractors who then contracted work out to smaller contractors, who contracted work out to smaller contractors, who contracted work out to smaller contractors, who contracted work out to smaller contractors ad nauseum.

    One winner of one of the bigger contracts was a Brisbane Real Estate business.

    Of course only the bottom level of subbies got their hands dirty and those at higher levels creamed off profits after a modicum of office work to arrange the scam.

    This multi level contracting by the big end of town is a perennial problem in government contracts. Maybe there’ll be some remediation of this practice recommended.

    Labor may be vulnerable to some criticism vis a vis the warning issues and the Garrett to Rudd alleged communication breakdowns (and Garret’s being the fall guy).

    But as BB points out, the causal relationship between the government and the deaths was not at all proximate, and if the RC is looking, there will be many more fish to fry based on the conduct of those employers closer to the scene.

  19. [You’ve got to be able to balance what you do with the budget with the impact those measures are having on either compliance costs, collection costs or economic impact in the community]

    Something to keep in mind for March when Hockey decides what to do about the $1,000 GST and Customs Duty threshold which will apparently cost over $2 billion/year to administer and only bring in maybe $300-600.

    I’m betting that the exemption will go completely and there will be a large processing fee on top of the GST and duty.

  20. Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos says Labor is responsible for the $3 billion hit to the budget.
    ============================================================

    How the hell could anyone be so stupid as to believe its Labor’s fault that the Abbott Govt abandoned the taxes?

    You’d have to a Liberal troll or an absolute moron (or both) to blame Labor for the actions taken by the Abbott Govt.

  21. doG Albitey there have been millions of wasted words here this arvo about some people called “Hird”???, “Demetriou” ???, “Essendon”??? “Carlton”??? “Richmond”???

    I take it that it’s about some strange, sissy game referred to as “AFL” that permiates some southern places.

    Never mind.

    The real game will eventually show southerners what sport is all about sans all the intrigue and machinations described here today. Ha Ha!

  22. The Abbott Govt would rather spend millions on a vindictive Royal Commission than pay aged care workers a nearly decent wage.

    Evidence of how inept this Abbott Govt really is.

    Have a Royal Commission into the Weapons of Mass Destruction lie and the deaths that happened as a result of that lie.

  23. [How the hell could anyone be so stupid as to believe its Labor’s fault that the Abbott Govt abandoned the taxes?]

    Tp try to answer this seriously, I guess the Coalition says they were bad taxes, and that they had a duty to repeal them.

    Hence: it’s all Labor’s fault.

    Of course, if Labor hadn’t levied the taxes in the first place, then the hole would still be there.

    But we ARE talking about Arthur Sinodinos, who my sister (who worked with him extensively when she was a seniot public servant) was one of the biggest deadshits and bullies she has ever come across.

  24. Another mini earthquake in Japan, 5.5.

    “The Japan Meteorological Agency said the epicenter was at a depth of 55 kilometers in the sea off the coast of Chiba Prefecture.”

  25. But we ARE talking about Arthur Sinodinos, who my sister (who worked with him extensively when she was a seniot public servant) was one of the biggest deadshits and bullies she has ever come across.
    ==================================================

    The same Sinodinos who is the front the ICAC over his time working for an Obied company and water contracts.

  26. The same Sinodinos who has come under scrutiny for some dodgy goings on in regard to donations to the Liberals when he was Treasurer for the Party

  27. From ‘The Hillbilly Dictator:
    [Sir Harry Gibbs, Michael Helsham and Sir George Lush began an inquiry into Justice Angelo Vasta in February 1989. Ian Hanger QC, 43, son of Sir Mostyn Hanger, Chief Justice from 1971 to 1977, was counsel assisting.]

    [Ian Hanger QC, in his closing address to the Vasta inquiry on 21 April, said Justice Angelo Vasta had lied in evidence to the inquiry. Hanger suggested that that scrutiny of Vasta’s financial affairs revealed ‘significant personal dishonesty on behalf of the judge’, and ‘fraudulent dealings’ with the tax office. He said it was demonstrable that in evidence on his financial affairs the judge was ‘not worthy of credit,’ and that ‘His Honour’s remaining on the Bench should not be accompanied by any lingering doubt’.

    On Monday, 24 April, Hanger submitted that the commission recommend Vasta’s removal from the Bench. Peter Lyons QC said that Vasta had given misleading evidence about his friendship with Lewis in a defamation action and before the inquiry. He said that Vasta’s allegations of conspiracy by Fitzgerald QC, Clauson, and Chief Justice Sir Dormer Andrews, although since withdrawn, were sufficient for his removal.

    For Vasta, Alec Shand QC said Vasta had been the victim of a witch hunt, and that Hanger and his staff had not sought to find the truth, but had sought to put the worst possible complexion on evidence. He said the ‘wholesale and vicious’ attack on Vasta would affect his image when he returned to the Bench. Shand submitted that the commission could not treat Hanger’s allegations of criminal fraud, deception and perjury only on the balance of probabilities.]

  28. Jackol
    The HIP RC should examine how things were managed in SA where there were no safety issues. This would give a very good insight as to the lax and indifferent circumstances in Queensland were a principal cause of the problems.

  29. Actually… when you think about for a second, having someone called “Hanger” sit on an inquiry into your actions is not a really fabulous omen.

  30. [Ruawake – Presumably, the Govt will pay for a former PM to be represented at the hearing.]

    Let us hope that he doesn’t cave in like he did to Barrie Cassidy on that momentous day (first day of the end of Rudd, in my opinion).

    The whole exuse for this inquiry is to give the parents some kind of closure.

    I know the parents of a young woman who was killed by a spoilt idiot who went through a red light and broke the girl’s neck instantly and he got off with 14 months in jail, after three appeals (funded by his Daddy in Hong Kong).

    They never got any closure, even though Ray Hadley did one of his “specials” on the case.

    They still haven’t gotten over it, and never will.

    And they didn’t get a judicial commission of inquiry into their daughter’s case, either, which occurred at a notorious black spot on Pennant Hills Rd. in Sydney despite

    The Roads & Traffic Authority had refused to put in extra turn lights (until AFTER the death, of course). I didn’t see them up before the beak, either.

    Young boys get killed. Get over it, parents. Let the blame rest where it has already been resting: on the employer.

    This inquiry is a disgrace.

  31. Bushfire Bill@1993


    Actually… when you think about for a second, having someone called “Hanger” sit on an inquiry into your actions is not a really fabulous omen.

    Well he has been carefully selected no doubt to get the required result.

  32. [Ruawake – Presumably, the Govt will pay for a former PM to be represented at the hearing.]

    Don’t hold your breath.

    Brandis has already pre-empted the inquiry’s results by saying it will get to the bottom of who – in the government – was incompetent. the assumption of guilt, even of some kind of offence, is breathtaking.

  33. The thought of Rudd fronting an ABbott royal commission doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

    He couldn’t defend the program when he was PM, so why would he bother now he’s a private citizen?

  34. [Well he has been carefully selected no doubt to get the required result.]

    Yes, that Yes Minister retort about never holding an inquiry to which you don’t already know the outcome comes to mind.

    Quite simply I don’t share the confidence of some here that the RC will replicate the results of the various reviews and reports into the scheme that are already in the public domain.

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