BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 47
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  4. Fredex re science
    ______________
    What you’re saying is fairly obvious
    The Greeks were not hampered by a judeo-Christian religious philosophy and religion which prevented the use of reason for the life of science
    Christianity was dominant for a long time… but the coming of the enlightenment saw a slow rejection of “the spirit” as a key part of human existance
    Most people in Australia I suspect reject all that religious nonsense and guff about a spiritual.life

  6. CTar1
    [When I went to watch I could often be the only bloke in the Stadium. A bit strange!]

    Ha ha. The only reason blokes watched us, from our primitive swamp, were the blokes whose girlfriends played netball.

    And even then they had to pretend they were sizing us all up as potential fucks.

    I’m talking pre-stadium days. When we used to play in paddocks, on asphalt, nay bitumen, courts.

    Not the days of tournaments played in places like Netball Park in Melbourne.

    I’m talking about being tripped when in full flight, skidding across uneven surfaces and coming up with the skin from knee to ankle being ripped off. Most often hipe to foot. And no blood rule.

    I’m talking about being so intent on watching the other end of the court, where the umpire was, where our players were attacking and scoring, and being king-hit from behind.

    Why do you think netball eventually got two umpires?

    If your Sharelle is the same person I’m thinking of, well, you should be proud to have such an exceptional player in your family.

    My mother was of Scots heritage.

  7. [ Date of Royal Commission into Labors Pink Batts disaster announced, begins hearings on 23rd of December ]
    Recommendation from findings: all small businesses should pay for union inspections of any work being carried out

  8. I haven’t played sport since I left school and never before that time when I could get out of it. My outsider’s view of sport is that the ruling principle, especially where there’s money involved, seems to be: “it matters not how you play the game, it’s whether you win or lose”. Anything you can get away with seems to be OK. Winning is everything. Whatever it takes.

    Same goes for politics.

  10. kezza – I’ve already mentioned to you that I’m a ‘standard hetro’ guy.

    Watching young Ladies run around is not a waste of time.

    I’m astounded that women playing soccer doesn’t attract much attention here. The current crop are good a play very nearby.

  11. BW

    [Yep. Most of the top management and coaching structure would have to resign.

    The club would be subject to being sued for lack of duty of care by any players found guilty and banned.]

    They also might struggle to field a team.

  12. Maybe Abbott is setting up an obviously partisan, pointless waste-of-money Royal Commission to devalue the RC into Institutional Child Abuse set up by Gillard.

    I mean if one is a partisan witch hunt that will only waste millions of dollars, maybe people will think the other might be as well…

  14. Sean

    As much as those four deaths are sad and the employer should have been investigated and if in breech of OH&S have been charged but to be continuing it on is a total waste of time and money.

    Its time for the adults to start managing the country rather than being focused on getting one back.

  15. Guytaur

    That is a nice result although it is $300k above the reported asking price.

    And about 750k more than Gillard paid for it.

  17. MB

    [Most of the senior people at Essendon with any connection have already departed the club]

    (1) ‘most’?

    (2) It may not be individuals but the Club itself that goes for a row.

  19. Boerwar

    The Weapon, Dank, Evans have departed leaving only Hird & Thompson.

    Dr Reid is in the clear due to his well known anti needle policy.

  22. Guytaur

    I think Danny Cocorcan as also departed.

    At this point of time Essendon as not been found quilty of cheating or running a drug program, that is what ASADA is too determine.

    What Essendon was fined for related to matters surrounding OH&S and proper background checks for hiring although the FWA does not make it illegal to not check references.

  26. I read the link in Sean’s post in 1901.

    (name) had only started working with his insulation company employer three weeks earlier. He had no training and his only safety equipment was sun screen, Mr Potts said.

    A tragedy, pure and simple. But how is that the fault of the Federal Government, Kevin Rudd or Peter Garratt? The Federal Government funded the program but did not run it. Will Tony Abbott be responsible for any industrial accidents that occur in relation to, for example, building the ‘roads of the future’? Abbott is exploiting the victims of industrial accidents and their families for political gain. Disgusting and disgraceful.

    And thus case: November 21, 2009: (name), 19, dies from hyperthermia complications after installing batts in a St Clair (NSW) home in 40 degree heat. Who ordered him to work in extreme heat? It seems like either a tragic accident or a violation of OHS laws. Whatever the case, this would have been the subject of an inquest. If the Liberal’s business backers get their way it will be much more difficult for workers to refuse to work in unsafe conditions and this sort of thing will become much more common. In most other contexts someone like Sean would say about workers who refused to work in the heat that they should ‘toughen up’. Of couse no one should be compelled to work in unsafe conditions.

  31. One final point on Essendon

    I suspect the greatest lesson is taking shorts don’t work, Hird was impatient for success and rather than building a side with a good gameplan he went for the short cuts and that has blown up nicely yet the flew of his gameplan still remains.

  34. CTar1
    [Watching young Ladies run around is not a waste of time.]

    Okay, whatever floats your boat.

    I can think of a lot more things that would get me going sexually, rather than watching a few blokes traversing the track.

    Especially, given that I was not your norm.

    Let me explain.

    I was blessed, or not so blessed, with a wingspan a foot longer than my height would suggest. So even when I had an opponent 6 inches taller, I could outreach them.

    And could do it with insouciance.

    While it would always take a quarter, or two, for the opposing coach to understand what was happening (and even when they did know), they could not give any instruction to my opposing player other than to physically harm me.

    Usually by that time I had so demoralised my opponent, that it was all over red rover, except for the king hits.

    One of the king-hitters actually got accepted into the Australian team, well before your Sharelle.

    Despite my obvious advantages, I didn’t get accepted, nor even considered as a member of the Victorian team (even though my brother was an employee of the Vic coach’s husband) because I was adjudged as not having a sufficient aggro personality.

    And that was true. I didn’t agree with cheating.

    Norma Plummer was biased.

    Don’t get me wrong. I was a good player. But I was never as good as my three sisters. They were dynamite. And my mother was a most fantastic coach.

    And they were the reason Nar Nar Goon A Grade Netballers won 9 out of 13 premierships while I played there.

    We were ace.

  37. guytaur @ 1913
    [Abbott will be jealous. He is still paying his mortgage.]

    Now that he’s getting the big bucks as PM he should be able to pay off the huge sum he borrowed back in 2008, over $700,000 apparently, to keep him in the lavish style he’s become accustomed to as a minister when the ‘paltry’ ~$150,000/yr shadow minister salary proved inadequate.

    He wasn’t the only Lib/Nat to feel the pinch either. Apparently, quite a few were asking the Rudd government to increase parliamentary salaries despite the uncertain economic times in 2008. Rudd froze pay rates instead.

  38. 1936

    If I was the PUP (which I thankfully am not) is would contest a by-election in my best state where the government is on the nose and the opposition just got kicked out in a landslide.

  39. 1937

    Shadow Ministers were only introduced in the last parliament. Before that shadow ministers were not paid more than backbenchers. Abbott improved his income significantly when he became opposition leader.

  40. [But how is that the fault of the Federal Government, Kevin Rudd or Peter Garratt? ]

    It’s all coming back to me now… “Industrial manslaughter”, said Abbott.

    This of course was the man who said that “Industrial manslaughter” as an offence was a ridiculous proposition.

    From his now defunt web site. Abbott was Industrial Relations minister at the time:

    There are three essential problems with industrial manslaughter legislation as proposed:

    * First, it treats workers like children by failing to recognise that workplace safety is a shared responsibility between employers and employees;

    * Second, it shifts the workplace safety emphasis from prevention to punishment; and

    * Third, it introduces a new type of vicarious liability into the criminal law.

    He was worried that employers would be tarred with “Industrial manslaughter”,far too “vicarious” a liability.

    So where does that leave the Minister, Garrett, or the Prime Minister, Rudd?

    They’re a lot further away from the workface than the actual employers, whom Abbott though were too far away, yet Abbott wants to have a formal inquiry into their alleged culpability.

    This whole thing stinks to high heaven. Of COURSE the parents are upset, but they’d be upset if the boys were killed in car accidents, or digging a ditch.

    But this is the first time I’ve ever heard of what aounts to a Royal Commission based on, or at least inspired by (according to Brandis) the parents’ feelings.

    People die every day. Most don’t die at a time of their own choosing. Young people do stupid things. Employers do stupid things.

    We need to weight the undoubted benefits of the HIP scheme to the economy, and its millions of participants, against the probably inevitable deaths of a handful of young boys who thought they’d live forever, and their parents out for closure that will never come.

    If that sounds callous, then so be it. Shit happens.

    We don’t hold inquiries into the Ministers for Roads, or Transport every time there’s a truck accident, even in a black spot that should have been cleaned up.

    Ditto for Health ministers who don’t approve some new drug or scanning machine.

    This inquiry sets is a very dangerous precedent.

  43. [If I was the PUP (which I thankfully am not)…]

    Palmer has stated he is concentrating all the parties efforts on the WA election. I guess he does not want to waste his money on an election he will lose.

  44. tweeted 1hr ago

    @gordonthomsonci: State Secret#26 XmasIs 9am HMAS Stuart disembarked 70 refugees diverse origin kids.10 yrs our school had kids. No schooling now eh Scotty?

  48. Just think Shorn, if those poor roofing installers had been in a unionised company, they would probably still be alive, as they would’ve received proper training, the worksite would’ve been subject to OH&S clearance, and the operaters would’ve been forced to certify that safety training and regulations were being observed.

  49. DisplayName

    I thought they were too costly to administer (despite raising $3b more than they cost to administer) and thus it was Labor’s fault….

    So hard to keep up with all the excuses.

  50. Yes, Sean – like all those muppets who argue that the deaths were the government’s fault – are contradicting the Liberal line that we need less red tape.

    Try and at least make your arguments internally consistent, guys.

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