A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.
While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.
The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.
In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).
Demetriou has moved only as far as legal process makes him.
The problem with the AFL is that ASADA let it be part if the investigation. Thus letting the AFL get ahead unlike the ARL.
Good for the PR with AFL. What it does legally for the ASADA investigation is an interesting question I don’t know the answer to. I suspect no one does until the Court Case.
That when all is said and done is the problem. The guilty are thinking of themselves before the game.
So unless the guilty confess, the guilty will have to be proved guilty in a court of law.
That applies to all sport of course.
victoria
whoooah neddy!
What is it with you and Essendon?
Are you still smarting over Carlton’s defeat at the hands of Essendon in 1981?
You would have been in nappies then, but it sure sounds like it.
I admire Hird’s wife for coming out and telling it like it is. And that doesn’t do Demetriou any good at all.
But there’s no hiding from the fact, that just like the LNP in govt, payments still go to the cheats.
mb
[On that bases we don’t need FWA and Unions as the employees (players) can just second guess what the employer (Essendon) is doing.]
False analogy.
The rule is that the invidual takes full responsibility for (a) knowing what is illegal and (b) knowing what is going into the body.
Outsourcing it is not an option.
OK
So what were the Essendon players administered?
Human Growth Hormones?
EPO?
KFC? 😛
Just to add to the farcical qualities around ASADA:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-13/former-asada-official-privately-obtaining-supplements/5156466
I was sure I saw this on 7.30 last night, and the story (while filed under ‘news’) seems to be categorized as a 7.30 story … but it is totally missing from the 7.30 site. I thought I was going mad – couldn’t find it using ABC search (though that seems designed to never provide the links you’re looking for) until I used google.
The same thing happened for an intro piece talking about Turnbull shrugging off the “own a yacht together” accusation re: NBN “independent” review. Not sure what is going on with 7.30/ABC online archiving but unless I’m going mad (which is possible) they’re not comprehensively recording everything that 7.30 broadcasts.
Centre@1831
That is the thing, we don’t know.
All we know is that James got his players to inject unknown substances. All sourced from assorted Witch Doctors and Voodoo Scientists.
They would have made the top 4 this year, such was their “form”
I agree that Vlad has been weak in this, but the AFL didn’t force Hird to give his players drugs.
These Nigerian scammers are damned brazen!
This just popped into my email inbox.
[
RE: FROM THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION (FBI)
erick.bolt@fbi.gov
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Intelligence Field Unit J. Edgar Hoover Building
935 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, D.C.
Attention: Beneficary,
I am Special Agent Erick Bolt from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Intelligence Unit, we Intercepted two consignment boxes at JFK Airport, New York, the boxes were scanned but found out that it contained large sum of money ($4.1 million) and also some backup documents which bears your name as the Beneficiary/Receiver of the money, Investigation carried out on the diplomat that accompanied the boxes into the United States, said that he was to deliver the fund to your residence as overdue payment owed to you by the Federal Republic of Nigeria through the security company in the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile, we cross check all legal documents in the boxes but we found out that your consignment was lacking an important document and we cannot release the boxes to the diplomat until the document is found, right now we have no other choice than to confiscate your consignment.
According to Internal Revenue Code (IRC) in Title 26 also contain reporting requirement on a Form 8300, Report of Cash Payment Over $10,000 Received in a Trade or Business, money laundering activity may violate 18 USC §1956, 18 USC 1957, 18 USC 1960, and provision of Title 31, and 26 USC 6050I of the United States Code (USC), this section will discuss only those money laundering and currency violation under the jurisdiction of IRS, your consignment lacks proof of ownership certificate from the joint team of IRS and IRC, therefore you need to reply back immediately for direction on how to procure this certificate to enable us relieved the charge of evading the law on you, which is a punishable offense in the United States.
You are required to reply back within 72hours or you will be prosecuted in a court of law for money laundering, also you are instructed to desist from further contact with any bank(s) or person(s) in Nigeria or the United kingdom or any part of the world regarding your payment because your consignment has been confiscated by the Federal Bureau here in the United States.
Yours In Service,
Agent Erick Bolt
Regional Deputy Director
Intelligence Field Unit
]
Pity the fbi didn’t teach grammer at Quantico!
Kezza
Are you suggesting that my views on the Hird Essendon saga are due to my supposed dislike of the club?
Ptmd 😆
Dio
[Essendon could really be farked if ASADA / WADA charge a number of their players.]
Yep. Most of the top management and coaching structure would have to resign.
The club would be subject to being sued for lack of duty of care by any players found guilty and banned.
The impacts would include potential and actual loss of income, reputational damage and health consequences.
IMHO, it is more likely that the Club rather than invididual players which will be served with infraction notices.
Puffy
I have received similiar emails in the recent past. They are good for a laugh. But of course, some people are vulnerable to these scams.
bw
That is why the Fahey comments about work safe Victoria not prosecuting are interesting.
Puffy
pfffffft.
I have gained tens of millions of dollars for doing nothing much more than providing my banking details, have won an array of lotteries, am on first name terms with half a dozen interesting but luckless ex-ministers from various African nations, have a harem of assorted wives from Nigeria and Russia, and am domiciled in my luxury spanish style residence in the Bahamas.
Life is good.
g
[bw
That is why the Fahey comments about work safe Victoria not prosecuting are interesting.]
Indeed.
YB @ 1856
We don’t know?
HAHAHAHA
Well, if proper drug testing controls and procedures had been in place – they should’ve had some idea!
Nobody should be fined or charged unless all evidence and facts have been determined.
What is there to learn?
Drug cheating is serious, it does not create a level playing field and sporting outcomes MUST be determined by natural ability.
I say, all sporting authorities should get their act together from this then move forward from a clean sheet 😎
As for Essendon, all evidence and facts must be collated first.
Centre
[As for Essendon, all evidence and facts must be collated first.]
The $64 question right now is whether ASADA has enough stuff already, or whether it needs Dank’s stuff.
If the former, Santa is going to come calling on players and clubs in both League and AFL.
Here’s an infraction notices, ho, ho, ho.
Boer
They might’ve been injected with orange juice and vitamin pills?
kezza2
Oh and btw i have thanked Essendon and their supporters profusely. Why? Cos Carlton got to play finals because of Essendon’s stuff up. And i got to experience a fabulous between Carlton and Richmond as a result. So I again say thanks James and EFC you are the best!
“Fabulous game”
Centre
[Boer
They might’ve been injected with orange juice and vitamin pills?]
I would, of course, defer to Dio but:
(1) I imagine that orange juice in the bloodstream would require hospitalization.
(2) a syringe with sufficient calibre to dispense vitamin pills intravenously? Puhleeeeze, No!
400 looking unlikely now.
[victoria
Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 2:00 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza
Are you suggesting that my views on the Hird Essendon saga are due to my supposed dislike of the club?]
No, not at all.
I find you to have integrity.
I was just trying to defuse the situation. I really don’t think any club can take a high moral stance until all the facts are known.
As far as I’m concerned, I thought my club, Geelong, had been caught up in this fiasco, through personnel.
Maybe I’m just trying to cover my back.
9fer not enough, IMHO.
victoria@1868
You just wait till next time, when we actually do kick your butts 😀
Boer
milkshake then 😛
kezza
This is not about any club taking the high moral road. It is about Hird and his cheersquad and their attempts to hold fhe league to ransom, rather than accept responsibility for their own stuff ups
Some of these pommy eejits are wearing those silly eikon powerbands.
I’m disgustipated!
Yesiree Bob
We shall see. 😀
Centre, apart from being some sort of Peptide, no, we don’t know exactly what was administered.
Only hints and allegations, such as multiple substances that included, animal hormone etc.
The amount, or exact nature of substance administered ?
No, we don’t know
Toyota getting no money either:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-14/tony-abbott-rules-out-more-money-for-toyota/5156774
So both ABC and Abbott has lied:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-13/abbott-to-discuss-holden-fallout-at-coag-meeting/5153896
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 25m
Blimey Griffith byelection now $3.20 for LNP win ($1.30 for Labor).]
For those who care about these things.
vic @ 1876
That’s cool.
It’s just that my son barracks for Essendon. And we’ve been parrying back and forth about this issue. Via email. Because he’s now living in Germany.
He’s shattered and, because of the same personnel being involved with both clubs, my club Geelong and his Essendon, I’ve tried to disperse the “cheating” allegation.
I.E. Geelong may be in the same camp. We just do not know.
I’ve suggested to him that maybe Geelong should have been stripped of premierships!! Howzat.
But, for Demetriou to disguise that Hird was paid, after apparently being stripped of coaching, etc, when in fact he was being paid, undoes all the supposed good work by the AFL in regards to drug-enhanced performances.
That’s what I don’t understand about your stance on this issue.
When Hird’s wife has to come out and say that James was paid, in direct contradiction of Demetriou, then what does that say about Demetriou’s truthfulness?
Not a lot.
YB
Kay, well I’m very interested to see what transpires even more so with Rugby League.
Aussie rules players and drugs … years ago I worked with a few guys who played for various of the local clubs.
‘Cowboy’ Neil, Captain/Coach then at Ainslie, became a occasional drinking partner (a midi of Port was his standard drink).
The match of the year was Ainslie -v- Manuka.
So I out at Woden one weekend watching them go around and Cowboy up forward close to the goal and closely covered by about 4 Manuka players.
The ball gets through to him but he’s being charged by the opposition so he executes a twirl and collides with the point post. It was a metal one and he bent it by about 15 degrees.
The next week I stopped in to the club for a drink.
I say to Cowboy ‘That must have hurt a bit’.
Cowboy: ‘It’s lucky I was really pissed’!
Griffith byelection:
LNP $3.20
ALP $1.30
Unless there is a turn of events, I’d say Labor are more than likely on track for victory.
Kezza
As far as i am concerned, it is merely a red herring by team Hird
Centre:
And remember that the by-election will be “a referendum on the carbon tax” according to Team Abbott.
1885
The tendency of Commonwealth by-elections to swing away from the government and the poor polling of the government do indicate that. Those who place and take bets are sensible enough to see it.
CTar1
I had seven siblings, and I was the sixth in the parade of eight.
By the time I was 12, I could not compete physically with any of them. That is to say, they could all beat me up. Even the two younger ones.
So, it was with great pride that I played netball, a definitive non-contact sport. Skill was all. You rose above a pack to intercept. You got in front to intercept.
You used skill to return the ball to the attack.
You didn’t cheat.
I thank the living gods I retired, at 28, before the great change in netballing history.
I’d suffered the start of it. And I witnessed the demise of netball. The cheating, the surreptitious tripping, the disguised pushes in the back, the sneaky knee in the thigh to cause a corky. These were all an anathema to the sport.
Netball today is no different to the thuggishness of footy, of all codes. All it is, in the end, is the dominance of brute force over weaklings.
Yep, that’s why I’m disinterested in the results. They’re meaningless. And I wouldn’t pay for such non-entertainment. And I don’t.
The Global Mail @TheGlobalMail 2m
Suit up, folks. The Global Mail is going to court against #RioTinto and the NSW Govt over #FOI http://www.theglobalmail.org/blog/secrets-and-mines/772/ …
kezza
My nephew’s wife was an AIS Netball player. Now two buggered knees and one ankle.
She gave it up at about the same age as you.
I go and watch sometimes and you’re right that it’s getting a bit rougher – we should be cracked down on in international competition.
[victoria
Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 2:35 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza
As far as i am concerned, it is merely a red herring by team Hird]
There’s only one thing that pisses me off about you.
And that is, people spend a bit of time drafting a response to you, in good faith, and you invariably dismiss everything they have to say with a short, pithy remark.
So, it may well be that you consider whatever Hird has to say as a “Team Hird” response, but that doesn’t tell me anything.
And it doesn’t tell me anything else about any concerns I have raised.
It doesn’t tell me, for instance, if you think Geelong – who had the same personnel – should be up for scrutiny too. I mean you only have to look at the likes of Chappy to see an over-egged muscle development, to wonder if there was any component of illegal drugs involved.
Just askin’
Growth? Increase in population? Growing pains?
I would have thought they are EXACTLY the reasons you WOULD build an airport there.
Aid the growth.
Cater to the population.
Ease the growing pains.
1893
Airports are very noisy and this legitimately upsets local residents.
Also the vast majority of growing pains have been unrelated to any airport capacity issues and have revolved around more locally focused infrastructure (rail, schools, roads, etc.).
The ALP should have bitten the bullet on Badgery’s Creek, but I guess they were too timid due to the “Western Sydney” focus groups and the likes of Ed Husic.
Trying to trump up unsuitable sites just because they didn’t have the guts to make the decision everyone has been saying should have been made for the last 30 years, including by the ALP itself.
Oh well, I guess Truss, Hockey and Abbott get to take credit for doing what apparently needs to be done.
CTar1
I swapped sports and played basketball till I was 36. I must admit I did ‘play netball’ on the basketball court (could’t dribble if my life depended on it), but by jeezus it was much better than having an opponent intent on giving personal injury. It was much easier to avoid when not confined to a specific space.
I used to run up Mt Cannibal 3-4 times a week to keep fit.
I still suffer a cartilage problem in one knee, but like your niece have had ankle operations and ongoing problems from the swivel urgency of netball. The fit-start operation of netball plays havoc on skeletal joints.
In its purity, netball was a fantastic game.
It’s now just an ignoble fight for physical supremacy with the added bonus of women capable of withstanding physical assault to be able to put a ball through a ring more times than the other side.
What a useless bloody sport.
Kezza2
I have spent most of the day discussing the topic of Hird and my views on his conduct to date. My last comment of the red herring is basically a full stop as to what I and others have said on this topic today.
My understanding is that Geelong never engaged in the practices that Essendon did, despite a few of those individuals having been at Geelong. Difference? Hird was not the coach at Geelong
I’m reading Arthur Koestler’s “The Sleepwalkers’ again.
Its a ‘history of man’s [sic] changing vision of the universe”.
He has finished chapter 3 with the story of Aristarchus and his treatise that the Earth rotated on its axis and that ‘the Earth is carried around the sun in a circle”.
And then, according to AK, ‘from Plato and Aristotle natural science began to fall into disrepute and decay and the achievements of the Greeks are only discovered a millennium and a half later’.
Why?
He surmises – “a withdrawal from the world, contempt for knowledge, science and technology. rejection of the body and its pleasures in favour of the life of the spirit”.
Does that sound familiar?
kezza
When I went to watch I could often be the only bloke in the Stadium. A bit strange!
On the ‘biff’ bit I sat occasionally with ‘Sharelle’ on one of her numerous injury breaks – same opinion as yours not enough skill and too much pushing.
Following the debate here about sport, drugs and cheating, like most in Adelaide I find it hard to have any sympathy for Hird or Essendon. They got off very lightly for doping an entire club, considering what Adelaide got over Tippett.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of innocence, especially when the guilty parties deliberately did not keep any, and failing to keep records of what you take is in itself an offence under the WADA, ASADA and AFL codes. I sometimes wonder if Essendon supporters have even read them.
There is no “confusion” – what they have already admitted to doing is a clear breach. The only confusion is over whether ASADA are actually going to have the guts to punish a big time Australian professional sporting team. If they do not, we are no better than Spain or Romania over drugs in sport.