It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.
Puffy, I’m sure you’re familiar with Ada Lovelace Day. It’s celebrated mid-October and its purpose is to highlight and celebrate the contribution of women, past and present, to Science, maths and technology. While it’s only one day, it is still important in an industry that is so important yet (still) so gender biased.
[I do wonder though at what stage do the libs over do it all.]
By having the PM and Qld Premier attack the ABC, they’ve already overdone it IMO.
Forget inviting Shorten.
If Abbott was really serious about paying his respects to Mandela then he should bike it from Jo’burg to Qunu. About 1000ks. Raise some money for the coons on the way.
He could collect lots of taxpayer dollars, and some kudos, and satisfy his hankering for a bit of exercise.
This belated pseudo-statesmanship smells. He was lock-step with Howard about relieving the sanctions on South Africa. Abbott shouldn’t go as a matter of principle.
But what did principle ever matter to a charlatan like Abbott.
He’s a fraud, and I want Bill Shorten to having nothing to do with him.
[About Emmy Noether, by Lee Smolin:
The connection between symmetries and conservation laws is one of the great discoveries of twentieth century physics . But I think very few non-experts will have heard either of it or its maker – Emily Noether, a great German mathematician. But it is as essential to twentieth century physics as famous ideas like the impossibility of exceeding the speed of light.
It is not difficult to teach Noether’s theorem, as it is called; there is a beautiful and intuitive idea behind it. I’ve explained it every time I’ve taught introductory physics. But no textbook at this level mentions it. And without it one does not really understand why the world is such that riding a bicycle is safe.]
http://womenshistory.about.com/library/bio/blbio_emmy_noether.htm
confessions@2352
Yes good points.
Time for the ABC to strike back then.
[Carey Moore
Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza, don’t you have seagulls to yell at or something?]
You mean terns?
Or do you mean “Turn, turn, turn!”
And, like ever, Labor has to turn the other cheek, get on board, and be accommodating to the skunk-like behaviour of the Coalition?
[To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, a time to reap that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.]
Abbott suffers none of this. He can get stuffed.
You know, sometimes you just have to draw a line under hypocrisy. And this is one of those times.
Carey,
I must mark it on my calender for next year. 🙂
Re BK @2322 – in the linked article Greg Hunt says in effect the Senate’s job is to pass the Government’s legislation? The Liberals seem to be a good deal less enthusiastic about the role of the Senate since they won Government. Anyway, I recall in that blue ‘Real Solutions’ booklet that the Liberals had a plan to address climate change – no ifs or buts. They didn’t say anything about it – I suppose they expected us to trust them. The booklet didn’t say they would knock something together after they won. No excuses.
dave:
I was critical of Rudd when he wasted a week of the election campaign by complaining about the Murdoch press. That belittled him in the same way as Abbott and Newman complaining about the ABC belittles them.
They are political leaders, so should just HTFU.
Hmmm
Have I got this correct.
Newman appoints the guy who was looking after the flood catastrophe to his bikie squad months before his flood job was due to end.
Said guy was Newman’s boss in the army.
ABC uses stock footage when person was a good guy repairing the state which has been used before, but Newman gets the shits because his mate may be in trouble because Newman appoints him to do something about being a conduit between the CMC and Plod.
Hey fuckface Newman, how about leaving police to do police stuff.
Puff @2338 – thank you for that interesting link.
[ The Central Intelligence Agency played an important role in the arrest in 1962 of Nelson Mandela, the African National Congress leader who was jailed for nearly 28 years before his release four months ago, a news report says.
The intelligence service, using an agent inside the African National Congress, provided South African security officials with precise information about Mr. Mandela’s activities that enabled the police to arrest him, said the account by the Cox News Service.
The report, scheduled for publication on Sunday, quoted an unidentified retired official who said that a senior C.I.A. officer told him shortly after Mr. Mandela’s arrest: ”We have turned Mandela over to the South African Security branch. We gave them every detail, what he would be wearing, the time of day, just where he would be.” ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-06/cias-role-nelson-mandelas-1962-arrest
[I was critical of Rudd when he wasted a week of the election campaign by complaining about the Murdoch press. That belittled him in the same way as Abbott and Newman complaining about the ABC belittles them.
They are political leaders, so should just HTFU.]
One thing that frustrated me was the complaints about the media being superficial and focusing on the trivial, yet Rudd was greeting screaming schoolkids and posing for selfies.
That isn’t just a criticism towards Rudd but, rather, many politicians who delve into the superficial sideshow, yet complain about it when it doesn’t suit their agenda.
Carey:
Did you watch the series of Keating interviews? For me, the contrast between his substance and the sheer inanity of today’s political leaders was stark.
In a related manner, Andrew Elder says this of Nelson Mandela which is absolutely true when you watch youtube clips of interviews with him:
[Mandela was all about the repetition of simple, clear messages, but his lines looked like distilled wisdom rather than the focus-group muppetry of Australian politicians. ]
Watching Keating, it feels that with each new generation of politicians we’re getting more of the focus-group muppetry than we are the distilled wisdom.
Question: is News Corp Australia the propaganda wing if the Liberal Party or is the Liberal Party the political wing of News Corp Australia. They are certainly working together. Free advertising for the Coalition covering most of the front pages of the News Corp tabloids nearly every day of the recent Federal election campaign. The joint LNP-News Corp launch of the then Opposition’s Fraudband policy. News Corps’ constant campaigning against the previous government while failing to hold the the Opposition to account. And now what appears to be a coordinated attack on the ABC, which is probably the opening salvo in a campaign to first nobble then break up and sell off the ABC. And who would be the greatest beneficiary of that?
Nice cartoon AA. We should support Abbott and Shorten going to Mandela ceremony. Probably about 90% or more of world leaders likely to attend at a guess. Will show our leaders something about how the rest of the world thinks.
It so tiresome to hear the media talk about “world leaders” supporting or opposing something and then we find that this consists of a few leaders in Europe and North America and not much more. The Mandela ceremony will be a genuine world leaders event and Australians should learn a bit if the media coverage is good.
Abbott might learn something about world politics. Even the Catholic Church will no doubt be well represented.
[but his lines looked like distilled wisdom rather than the focus-group muppetry of Australian politicians. ]
That’s partly because he never had to face a democratic electorate, nor deal with actual problems of government. His presidency was all about symbolism, which he did very well. The ANC hasn’t done a particularly good job of actually running South Africa.
carey moore
You used to be really good fun, before you found the thought police.
You know, when you made mistakes in your posts. Just like we all did. It was easy to say, Oops, got that wrong.
But you’ve turned into a dogmatic evangelist, except when it suits you.
And, yes, I can give you chapter and verse.
Take Sean Tisme, for example.
You constantly exhort us to ignore him.
And then, you have a break-out of your own. Where you can’t ignore his stupidity. And you do a certain character assassination.
But your’s is justified, according to you, because he’s such a fuckwit.
But anybody else, according to you, is pandering to him; making him post more inanities.
Because I started to point out your inconsistency, and you’d found God, you’ve been particularly nasty to me.
So, I just got a bit nasty to you – to show how nastiness works. You didn’t even recognise it in your sanctimony.
So, you think you’re clever being all things to all people, but just as every other political leader has found, it doesn’t work. You have to lead, pull people with you, not pander to anxieties, not pander to their sense of goodwill, but show a new way.
Paul Keating was like that. So was Bob Hawke. Fraser needed bi-partisan support. Rudd and Gillard tried.
Howard was a divisive bastard. So is Abbott.
I wouldn’t give Abbott an inch.
kezza2, the sooner you realise I don’t give a shit about what you think of me (or anything, for that matter), the happier we’ll all be.
Carey
yeah, well, I realise you’ve been hurt by some stuff I’ve said.
I give a shit about you enough to post what I did.
That you don’t give a shit, doesn’t bother me one way or the other. Just thought I’d let you know.
I won’t be as patronising as some on here by giving you the “kissy kissy” symbol.
But it’s about time you stop pretending to yourself that you’re some sort of non-biased oracle.
[I wouldn’t give Abbott an inch. ]
Agree 100%. But then I feel that way about most tories – particularly the ones who ‘pretend’ to be nice, to be moderate. Its just an act to serve a purpose.
But abbott is going to have to do a 180 degree on a lot of stuff, almost impossible, or come a real gutsa.
He has a whole lot more nasty stuff lined up that he is determined to push through.
Well good luck to him on that. The more he reverts to form the better. He is making all these mistakes now because he is confident that he is ‘safe’ and can do what he wants.
Lets just see about that next year – WA Senate, Qld By election, SA & VIC State elections. While he gets bugger all of his stuff through the current senate.
Unless the greens keep rolling over, of course.
Psephos “That’s partly because he never had to face a democratic electorate, nor deal with actual problems of government.”
You can’t be serious. South Africa was a powderkeg in 1994 with some of the most deep seated divisions imaginable. Mandela played a key role in dealing with many of the issues while maintaining the big majority which ANC achieved in 1994 despite the Apartheid machine etc.
The fact that the ANC has not suffered major divisions and has seen off a range of other challengers is a pretty significant achievement.
[Unless the greens keep rolling over, of course.]
The Greens seem to have changed their position on the carbon tax repeal legislation, from my reading it seems they have decided a Senate Committee for Directed Action plus the effects of removing the CT is needed.
To quote Mike:
[“This is just a diversion from the fact that the Senate has gone on strike and will not consider the repeal of the carbon tax legislation.”]
[That’s partly because he never had to face a democratic electorate, nor deal with actual problems of government. His presidency was all about symbolism, which he did very well.]
I think that seriously diminishes his time in office.
As the first post-apartheid Sth African President (black Sth African President) his role was to unite a divided nation.
Imagine the country today had the first post-apartheid President been someone without the communication skills of Mandela.
[You can’t be serious. ]
Well yes I can actually. I greatly admire Mandela’s role as a national leader and unifier in the wake of majority rule. If there had been mass white emigration the country would have collapsed, and he was the central figure in preventing that. But he was not a politician, which was the point I was responding to. He was not elected President at a direct election (although of course he would have won if there had been one). He was a figure above politics, and so he didn’t need to talk like a politician. The ANC has won four elections on the back of Mandela’s prestige, and because there is no credible alternative in the black majority (the opposition DP still has a white leader). This is despite two very mediocre presidents succeeding Mandela, and increasing evidence of cronyism and corruption.
The Senate can repeal the Carbon Price when the Government demonstrates that it has a credible plan to meet the lower end of Australia’s bipartisan emission reduction target. They told us before the election they had one. Of course maybe they lied.
[The Greens seem to have changed their position on the carbon tax repeal legislation, from my reading it seems they have decided a Senate Committee for Directed Action plus the effects of removing the CT is needed.]
This is indeed a change, and perhaps a populist one to shore up their base after they voted with the coalition in the Senate to scuttle Labor’s moves for a DA inquiry.
I’m thoroughly fed up with the Greens and their silly games. You don’t know whether they are Arthur or Martha these days, and personally I think Labor would do well to distance itself from their flaky influence.
Psephos – part of the democratic/political skills of Mandela and ANC and its allies has been precisely the lack of credible alternative political parties – despite there being 20 plus other parties mainly appealing to the black majority.
[I think Labor would do well to distance itself from their flaky influence.]
The trick is to do it while vacuuming up their prefs.
On Mandela, the ANC promised to provide housing for all, they have gone nowhere near doing so, I think they will struggle if another party can unite the tribes of Sth Africa.
[He was a figure above politics, and so he didn’t need to talk like a politician. ]
I compared Mandela’s communication skills with those of Keating’s, who WAS a politician who faced numerous democratic elections. Keating never sounded like he’d been programmed by central casting with focus-group muppetry. That’s the comparison I was drawing with Mandela, perhaps clumsily.
[ If there had been mass white emigration the country would have collapsed, and he was the central figure in preventing that ]
Does anyone know what sort of percentage of SA whites actually emigrated ?
dave
[The latest Census in 2011 recorded 145 683
South Africa-born people in Australia, an increase
of 39.9 per cent from the 2006 Census. The 2011
distribution by state and territory showed New
South Wales had the largest number with 40 247
followed by Queensland (35 549), Western
Australia (35 327) and Victoria (24 447). ]
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/statistics/comm-summ/_pdf/south-africa.pdf
[The trick is to do it while vacuuming up their prefs.]
Yep, agreed. But given the Greens have lost votes at every election they’ve contested since 2010, Labor should also be looking to those first preference Green voters who feel they can no longer vote 1 Green as the safe alternative to a major party.
[Does anyone know what sort of percentage of SA whites actually emigrated ?]
Superficially, in my neck of the woods, a shitload.
[ I think they will struggle if another party can unite the tribes of Sth Africa. ]
Have they got a real opposition, let alone a credible one, thats electable ?
My computer has started playing disco music and I don’t know why.
[ Superficially, in my neck of the woods, a shitload. ]
One of the features of WA 🙂
Poms & Sarthies.
dave:
According to the Census, I live in one of the least culturally diverse communities in the state, if not the country. 🙁
Ta RU,
In the bigger picture they aren’t huge numbers though – very easily absorbed here, but relatively wealthy and well educated in SA terms – and Australian terms as well.
But other SA whites would have gone to the UK and elsewhere.
Psephos, internet ad?
confessions@2389
Well North Sydney is the opposite (at least in terms of people or one parent born overseas ) and many suburbs of Sydney even more so.
The figures seem to suggest that about 20% of the white South African population left in the early years after 1994.
The white South African population seems to have been increasing over recent years including some returnees from overseas.
In nominal terms the SA economy is 3 times bigger than in 1994 according to a fairly recent Goldman Sachs report and a lot of money has been spent on infrastructure, schooling, social support etc
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 9:13 pm | PERMALINK
My computer has started playing disco music and I don’t know why.]
I was radicalized by Mary Hopkin when I was 14.
What’s the common denominator?
[I was radicalized by Mary Hopkin when I was 14.]
I turned gay after listening to Lou Reed songs (really).
Psephos @ 2387
[My computer has started playing disco music and I don’t know why.]
Someone at ASIO hit Play instead of Record?
dave @ 2382
[Does anyone know what sort of percentage of SA whites actually emigrated ?]
I seems to be running into a lot of them lately, including at a large car dealership where most of the staff seemed to be white SA. Perth also seems to be Cape Town east in parts.
Those were the days my friend
I thought they’d never end
[Someone at ASIO hit Play instead of Record?]
That’s probably it.
I have a friend who lives in Beijing, who normally speaks English. One day he rang his grandmother in Australia, and spoke to her in Greek. A voice came on the line: “Speak English please!”
Hunt says
[“I don’t care what the Senate does, as long as it does its job and addresses the legislation of the day for which the Government was elected]
What a crock, the Senate isn’t a rubber stamp & by holding the Government to account on it’s Direct Action policy it is doing it’s job.
[In the federal Parliament, the opportunities for the House of Representatives to operate as an effective check on government are significantly reduced because the party or coalition of parties forming government usually holds a majority of its seats and, through extremely rigid voting discipline, controls the House. However, the development of the Australian system of responsible government, under which the federal government is responsible to the Senate as well as the House of Representatives, has ensured that the federal Parliament, through one of its houses, is able to perform its role as a check on government.]
Listening to the history of Mandela, it’s clear back when he was sent to prison he was a terrorist.
When he came out of prison though 27 years later he was a different man and willing to bring the country together.